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Fantasy football managers have historically been more apt to attack the running back position than any other position in the game. In recent years, wide receivers have become more popular with drafters, particularly in salary cap drafts. This year in a typical 12-team league, five wide receivers are expected to be taken in the first round in a normal serpentine-style draft. But, despite the trend, managers can still reliably count on wide receiver points being cheaper than running back points in a salary cap draft. For example, the consensus top running back Jonathan Taylor is going for $55+ in most drafts, while the consensus top wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson can consistently be had for less than $50, and sometimes as low as $45. That’s a significant difference, and salary cap drafters appear to be catching on. But, the wide receiver fantasy landscape has never been deeper, and it should be possible to chase a top guy while still building depth to count on. It may cost a few extra dollars than in years past, and the pricing may be sustained a bit higher than before, but wide receiver is still a good place to find value because of the sheer number of options. Here are some targets for your salary cap drafts.
ELITE TARGETS
The general sentiment around Diggs’ 2021 season was that it was a disappointment. He only saw 13 fewer targets than his monster 2020 season, but he had 30 fewer catches and over 400 fewer yards. As a result, the fantasy community is dealing with some recency bias. His price is down in WR5/6 territory, and there is a significant gap between the top three guys (Kupp, Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase) and the next tier. This makes Diggs the perfect target if you want a shot at a wide receiver who can finish near the top of the position for a mid-WR1 price. Getting a deal on top players isn’t easy, but Diggs could have a discount in salary cap drafts.
The fantasy community isn’t buying the year that Samuel had in 2021. His 8 rushing touchdowns on 59 attempts are not sustainable, but otherwise, what is there not to like about his PPR WR3 finish? They pulled some of the targets from his workload when he got more carries at the end of the year, but after complaining about being used as a running back this offseason, expect his workload to look more like the beginning of the year than the end. This should help mitigate whatever losses he sees from the rushing efficiency regression. The good news for salary cap drafters is that his price is drifting into the upper $20 range, and his WR7 ADP leaves a lot of room for value. Nominate Samuel as early as possible before the market is set, and see if you can land him for $30 or less as your top wide receiver.
For the second year in a row, Allen makes this list. Despite the ascension of Mike Williams up draft boards, Allen is still the rock-solid bet between those two and makes the perfect WR1 for salary cap drafters that want to spend up at other positions. He out-targeted Williams by 28 targets and had another 100-reception season – his fifth in a row. He’s attached to one of the best young quarterbacks in the game so don’t overthink it and go try to get Allen for mid to low $20s as an electric WR2 or a reliable WR1.
ELITE QUALITIES – QUESTIONS TO ANSWER
D.J. Moore
In four years in the league, he has never topped four touchdowns in a season. This frustrating fact is a large part of the reason that fantasy managers aren’t willing to pay more to roster a guy who has over 1,100 yards receiving in each of his last three seasons despite a poor quarterback situation. Last year Sam Darnold was one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league, and despite the limitations of Darnold, Cam Newton, and P.J. Walker throwing Moore the ball he still piled up a career-high 93 catches. With an upgrade at the position in newcomer Baker Mayfield, Moore has a real shot to top his previous high of four touchdowns and become a Top 12 wide receiver by year’s end. With a current ADP of WR14 and a price that shouldn’t be much more than $20, Moore is a dynamite WR2 who could make a leap if Mayfield can get him the ball.
Allen Robinson
Robinson also makes this list again despite being a colossal bust in 2021. He leaves a bottom-third passing offense in Chicago to come to an offense that was Top 5 in passing yards last year and had a quarterback who threw 41 touchdowns. Robinson burned so many people last year that his ADP still lingers at WR20. For a guy who is only one year removed from back-to-back seasons with over 150 targets and 98+ receptions, it is the perfect opportunity for salary cap drafters to get back in on Robinson for a reasonable price. He will play in the best system with the best coach, quarterback, and highest-scoring offense of his entire career. It is possible to grab Robinson as a WR3 in salary cap drafts, and that’s exactly how salary cap rosters explode.
The Steelers head into the season with an uncertain quarterback situation for the first time since 2004. Fantasy managers appear to be concerned enough to push last year’s PPR WR7 down to WR19 off the board. But even though Ben Roethlisberger is gone, what kind of player was he in 2021? He had one of the lowest average target depths among all starting quarterbacks, his on-target throw percentage was poor, and his average net yards per attempt was also weak. Nothing about what Roethlisberger did in 2021 was particularly appealing. Perhaps the new quarterbacks will sometimes struggle, but does it justify pushing Johnson down to WR19? He should be a salary cap value this year.
He joins players like Kirk Cousins and Keenan Allen as guys who fantasy drafters perennially underrate. Cooks has finished as the PPR WR19 and WR17 in fantasy points per game the last two seasons, yet his ADP is WR21. That is the definition of value. Being able to draft Cooks below his floor with a young quarterback who appears to be on his way up is the recipe salary cap drafters should be looking for.
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BIGGER QUESTIONS…PLENTY OF UPSIDE
If Mooney weren’t attached to the Bears offense, he’d be a more exciting prospect. Nevertheless, that’s part of the salary cap game. Although he finished as WR27 overall, he was good for just 12.2 fantasy points per game, ranking 36th. But Allen Robinson is gone, and this is now Mooney’s show. He’s in line to top 140 targets again and will have to rely on a new coaching staff and the development of Justin Fields. Still, his 2021 season seems to be his floor, and any positive development in either of those situations will make Mooney’s price of approximately $11 seem like a bargain.
In the four seasons since his rookie campaign, he has put up two years of over 90 receptions. Now he finds himself playing with the best quarterback of his career and the best offensive coaching staff he’s played for. There are a lot of different ways the targets could end up being divided in Kansas City, but betting on a player who is just 25 years old in the best situation of his career with an average price of only $10-$11 means he can be had as a dynamic flex option for those who budget properly.
Despite being the PPR WR7 when he got hurt in Week 12 last year, Thielen is being drafted as the WR30 off the board! While his efficiency metrics may be trending downward (reasonable for a 32-year-old receiver), he is still heavily involved in the red zone and has been for the last couple of years. Kirk Cousins trusts him near the goal line; his price defines asymmetrical drafting. His only real risk at his current price is injury, and when his price is only $10, there isn’t much downside to trying to grab Thielen as a WR4 and seeing if he can score 10+ touchdowns for the third year in a row.
The presence of Davante Adams must spook fantasy managers because Renfrow's WR34 ADP is quite a contrast to his WR17 PPR finish (points per game). While it’s natural to think his targets will be curtailed, new coach Josh McDaniel has an affinity for slot receivers in his offense, and this is likely to be a tight target tree between Adams, Darren Waller, and Renfrow. Reaching 110 targets and 70 receptions seems to be eminently reasonable. His salary cap price of $7 says the fantasy community isn’t excited about his chances to repeat his success from a year ago. Grabbing him cheaply as a WR4 or flex should be no problem, and the possibility that he’ll top 85 catches is still there. Salary cap managers should target Renfrow when other more exciting options are still on the board.
BARGAIN SHOPPING
Receivers who have the kind of season Smith did as a rookie are excellent bets to be fantasy producers going forward in their careers. But despite his big year, he is being overshadowed by the arrival of A.J. Brown. Rather than hurting Smith, this should help him by drawing coverage and making the offense more explosive. Smith is going for an almost laughable $4-$5 in most salary cap drafts. Try to land Smith around Round 5 or 6 so that plenty of better options are available, but a sizeable amount of salary cap dollars have been pulled from the room. His price is almost zero risk for a talented second-year player flying under the radar this draft season.
It is a valid concern to question how many targets there will be for Aiyuk after Deebo Samuel and George Kittle get theirs, but for $5-$6, that is baked into the price. New starter Trey Lance and Aiyuk seem to have a rapport developing, so take advantage of the uncertainty and try to grab Aiyuk as a WR4 and see what develops in San Francisco.
Despite reports that he is back to pre-injury form and recovering nicely from his ACL tear in 2021, the Titans wide receiver still has an ADP languishing in the WR42 range. It is entirely possible that Woods leads Tennessee in targets this year, yet he carries a price of around $4-$5. Take a shot on Woods at the back of the roster for a minimal price.
The Minnesota Vikings ran 11-personnel (3 wide receivers) less than any team in the NFL the last two seasons. So, despite some flashes from Osborn, his snap shares weren’t high enough to allow him to truly breakout. However, now with a head coach who likes to throw the ball and use more 11-personnel, Osborn should have a shot to have his best year yet. His price should only be $1-$2, and if Thielen falls off a cliff like some suspect, it will be a huge opportunity for Osborn. Hedging a Thielen selection with Osborn is a solid strategy in leagues with large enough rosters. One of the two will produce opposite Justin Jefferson.
The hype train is starting to run downhill so watch his price as drafts get nearer. However, Collins appears to have the WR2 spot opposite Brandin Cooks sewn up, and his development continues in his second year. In some leagues, his price might go up to $2-$4, but taking the chance on a young, big-bodied receiver is a good bet.
Talent has never been the problem for Campbell who now enters his third season after playing only nine games over his first two years. However, he has a shot at earning the starting slot role in the Colts’ offense, and his price is still only $1 because of his inability to stay healthy thus far. Campbell is an explosive fantasy option if he’s on the field, and that upside is what salary cap drafters should be chasing late in drafts.
CONCLUSION
Chasing wide receiver value in salary cap drafts is still a profitable pursuit this draft season. The trend continues to move towards drafters spending up on the position, so be prepared to spend a little bit more than you have in past years. But, the sheer volume of productive receivers leaves a rich pool of targets to send your salary cap roster over the top. Finding the right targets isn’t always easy, but budgeting to have five strong receivers on your roster helps you win the flex spot each week and gives you options if you happen to miss one or two of your guys. That is how you crush your salary cap draft.
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