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Finding value at the running back position in salary cap drafts is one of the harder things to do. Managers are generally more interested in spending for the top running backs, and the scarcity makes it even harder. It is smart to temper expectations a little bit when finding deals at the position. Finding a bargain is harder, so getting a few-dollar discount here and there may be all that's available. The best way to isolate targets is to find players who lack preseason buzz, players who missed time last year from injury (but are healthy now), or players who face cloudy situations that could clear up in their favor. Here are some running backs that fit the bill.
Elite Targets
Despite being an elite producer for most of his career, the opinion of fantasy drafters to this point in the summer is lukewarm. Yes, he's going as the sixth running back off the board, but Cook clearly has the chops to push into the top three at the position. He gets a new offensive system in Minnesota that should feature more 3-wide receiver sets and open up lighter boxes. On top of that, Cook had the third most rushing attempts in the red zone and was tied for the seventh most carries inside the five-yard line. But he converted those touches at one of the league's lowest rates, so his final stat line was lacking a bit. The final piece of the puzzle is that some people in draft rooms will be concerned about Cook's pending legal situation and hesitate to commit to him. Use this as an advantage.
Despite what appears to be a bolstered offensive line and a career 2021 season, drafters still won't commit to Mixon in serpentine drafts before the end of the first or early second round. This should signal to salary cap drafters that a running back with Top 6 potential can be had for a reasonable price (reasonable by running back standards). Mixon is a great candidate to nominate early in the draft when other running backs ahead of him are still available. He is undervalued in comparison to other running backs in that range.
Chasing Workhorse Running Backs
The Dallas running back finds himself in a unique position this draft season. He's falling further down draft boards than he ever has in his career. But, for one more season, the Cowboys are committed to handing Elliott the ball. Rumors of his demise for Tony Pollard have been exaggerated, and despite Pollard seeing the field plenty and Elliott suffering from a PCL injury, the Dallas starter still managed a PPR RB6 finish on the season. He's a bit of a compiler at this stage in his career, but double-digit touchdowns are still a real possibility. He'll continue seeing high-leverage touches in the passing game and the red zone. He's a perfect salary cap draft target for builds with less emphasis on the running back spot.
Like Elliott, Chubb finds himself slipping further down draft boards than he's been since his rookie season. He's now draftable as a high-end RB2 instead of a low-end RB1, where he's resided for the last couple of seasons. The only thing that has changed is that fantasy managers are realizing that any real chance at much passing game usage isn't going to happen, and last year he got banged up and missed some time. But he's still one of the best runners in the league, and his price has never been lower. That's a salary cap drafters' signal to pounce.
Fantasy managers still aren't sure what to think about Hall and the situation in New York. Some are still drafting Michael Carter as a back with standalone value, and Hall languishes near the bottom of RB2 territory in serpentine formats. But the Jets didn't trade up for Hall and make him the first running back off the board in the NFL draft for him to sit behind Carter. Hall will have a chance to earn a workhorse role in this offense and is the odds-on favorite to finish as fantasy football's top-producing rookie running back. There is plenty of room for him to return value on his current ADP, which means salary cap drafters may be able to get a volume producer with Top 12 potential for low RB2 money.
Flawed Prospects but Worthy Candidates
Once it gets past the RB2 tiers, some guys have a legitimate shot to take the lion's share of their teams' backfield touches. There is a glut of guys who can still produce but have a major flaw of some kind – either they don't catch passes, they are in a true timeshare, or they won't get goal-line touches. Here are a few options with plenty of punch but some admitted weaknesses.
Hunt found himself on this list last year as well. He struggled with an injury-marred season, but the real story is what he did before getting hurt. Many will be surprised that he was the PPR RB9 when he was hurt during the team's Week 6 game. He was doing all the same things he's always done in that offense – catching passes, mopping up with carries in the fourth quarter, and getting goal line carries. Hunt will sometimes be frustrating, but the general sentiment about Hunt is so low that he should be cheap in salary cap drafts. He makes a fine RB2 or a fantastic flex option for a low price.
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The fact that Edmonds is going as the RB34 off the board is perplexing. While he doesn't profile as an every-down back, if he can stay healthy, he'll push for 60 receptions and will obliterate that price tag. When he got hurt in Week 9 last season, he was the PPR RB16 averaging over 12 points per game. There is no reason he can't produce like an RB2, and salary cap drafters should be able to snag him for a far lower price.
A.J. Dillon
His major flaw is sharing the field with Aaron Jones. But last year, Dillon was used plenty in the Green Bay attack. This season should be no different. He compiled seven more red zone carries than Jones while still catching 33 passes to finish as the PPR RB21. His RB25 ADP says fantasy managers are still concerned about the backfield split. But he's being drafted below where he finished last year, and that says his salary cap price could, and should, be low enough to roster Dillon with plenty of room to return value.
Bargain Shopping
The Patriots' situation is shaping up to be a bit of a mess, but that's where salary cap drafters can sometimes find value. Behind Damien Harris, Stevenson's only competition is James White who is not healthy yet and a rookie 4th-round draft pick. After going through the Bill Belichick boot camp in 2021, Stevenson has a chance to be a big producer in his second year with the team. His average price is less than $8 right now so he slots right in as an RB4 who can produce like an RB2. That's what salary cap drafters should be looking for.
The Chargers are looking for a compliment to Austin Ekeler after the departure of Melvin Gordon a few years ago. The Joshua Kelley experiment failed. Larry Rountree couldn't distinguish himself. Justin Jackson wasn't re-signed either. In steps Spiller with a chance to earn that all-important #2 role for Los Angeles. Spiller should only cost a couple of bucks, and if he doesn't win the primary backup role early in the season, he can be easily dropped onto the waiver wire.
There is a new coaching staff in Chicago, and rumors are swirling that the Bears are working David Montgomery on special teams. Nobody on the Chicago staff has to play Montgomery this year if they feel that Herbert gives them the best chance to win. He showed promise when asked to fill in last year for the Bears, and his price shouldn't exceed $3-$4. That's exactly the kind of upside salary cap drafters should be looking for near the end of the draft.
Darrell Henderson
The word out of Rams camp is that he's splitting first-team reps with Cam Akers. Head coach Sean McVay talked about the split and was upfront about the need to play both guys in a bit of a rotation. Henderson sits at the bottom of RB4 territory in drafts, and his salary cap price is only $1-$2 in most drafts. Henderson will have standalone value and provide one of the league's more valuable injury replacement upside candidates playing behind Akers trying to regain his pre-injury form. Henderson is a great gamble for a couple of bucks late in salary cap drafts.
What about Raheem Mostert makes fantasy drafters think he'll keep the early down role over Michel? Drafters are taking Mostert as RB52, so they clearly don't have confidence in him. Behind Mostert, Michel and Myles Gaskin are the only candidates to carry the ball on early downs. Assuming Chase Edmonds has his role as a given (pass-catching back, 8-10 early down carries per game), what is to prevent Michel from carving out an early-down role and possible goal line carries? His main competition, Mostert, has played exactly one season where he lasted more than nine games in a feature role. He's now 30 and coming off a major injury. Stash Michel for $1 at the end of salary cap drafts and wait for the role to emerge.
Conclusion
Landing running backs is easily the toughest task in any salary cap draft. The competition is fierce, everyone loves to spend money on them, and they are widely recognized as the most acceptable way to blow 25+% of a salary cap budget on one guy. Pay attention to the targets in this article and nominate them at the right time to make a salary cap roster soar with both floor and upside. The goal isn't to land every guy on this list. The goal is to pay market value for elite and/or safe players and then land a few of these targets along with them. The combination is what makes a team a championship contender.
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