Cordarrelle Patterson's 2020 all-purpose yards in 2013 were second most in the NFL. Of those, 1393 yards came from kickoff returns. A player with such a large volume of return yards is not at all an unusual occurrence. In most seasons, half of the top ten players in all-purpose yards would not make the list but for their handling of kickoff or punt returns.
A tremendous shift in the fantasy value of players like Patterson can occur when a league gives individual players fantasy points for return yards. Even a smaller amount like the 425 return yards for Antonio Brown in 2013 can be important for a player who already had fantasy significance before returns were considered.
Incorporating the return game into fantasy football creates a unique set of challenges for fantasy owners. The most obvious is the need to figure out who the fantasy significant returners are. But an owner also should understand that predictions of a specific player's return stats tend to have more uncertainty than predicting his rushing or receiving yards. If care is not taken in incorporating return yards into a draft strategy, the result can often be drafting the returners too early.
In this article I am going to briefly look at why that uncertainty exists, and then give some simple advice on how to avoid over valuing returners if you are doing your own draft preparation, and also on how we already try to account for it for you in the Draft Dominator and Mobile Draft Apps. Afterwards I will take a look at fantasy significant players in 2014 that stand a good chance of getting return yards.
Returners Take a Backseat
Any football prediction is uncertain, due to factors like injuries, being outplayed by a teammate, or quality of the opponents. Predictions of return stats for specific players are subject to many of those issues, but also by additional ones that are more unique to the return game.
NFL coaches often put the needs of special teams behind those of offense or defense. Many returners occupy backup positions, and their roster spot may depend more on the team's other needs than they depend on the player's skill as a returner. You never see a starting RB cut because the team wants to use his roster spot on a backup lineman. That kind of thing happens to some starting returners though.
Many NFL coaches are not willing to subject offensive or defensive starters to the increased injury risk of the return game. Those coaches who are still willing, however, may be one significant player injury away from changing their stance. Last season, an injury to Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu on a special teams play soured head coach Bruce Arians on using starters on returns. Ace punt returner and elite cornerback Patrick Peterson is no longer expected to be the returner for Arizona, as a result. That Arians waited until the offseason to decide to pull Peterson was good for our 2013 predictions, but not every coach is going to wait.
As was the case with Patrick Peterson, it did not take an injury to the returner himself to result in a loss of the return job. Generally an offensive player's outlook improves when a teammate is injured as his own opportunities increase, and a defensive player will at least see more playing time. But the same injury to a teammate may strip the player of his return duties because he is now viewed as too important to risk while his position has been depleted by the injury.
Most issues with predicting offensive production affect returners as well, like the player himself being injured. But these extra issues are generally unique to returners. Since these issues tend towards a fantasy significant player doing worse than we expected, we need to account for that when we go from our projection to a ranking that we use in a draft. So how do we deal with that at draft time?
More Uncertainty, Less Weight
I said the advice on dealing with the extra uncertainty would be simple, and it is. We lessen how much a player's final rank relies on the return portion of our predictions by reducing the number of fantasy points that come from it. If you use the Footballguys projections we already are doing this for you, but let me come back to that.
Let us go back to the first player mentioned in the article, Cordarrelle Patterson. He had 1393 kickoff return yards in 2013 despite handling just under two-thirds of the returns for the Vikings. Yes, there is some room for believing Patterson could see even more returns than last year. Coach Mike Zimmer has said he plans to keep Patterson on returns, but as we already discussed, a coach can be one injury away from changing his mind on such matters.
We might believe Patterson is a talented enough returner and will see enough opportunities that 1200 yards is truly a good prediction for Patterson's "most likely" number. But because of uncertainty in things like the coach pulling him, which do not have a parallel in Patterson's receiving stats, and because most of those events we're uncertain of would result in a reduction in Patterson's return yards, we should give more weight in his ranking to his receiving yards, and less to his return yards.
If you are doing draft preparations on your own, such as in a spreadsheet, you could introduce a weighting system to give more weight to his receiving fantasy points. Or you could just reduce his projection. Some players, like Patterson, this would apply to. A player like Devin Hester, on the other hand, does not have a role on offense or defense that will impact being a returner, nor is he likely to be released for anything short of poor performance. So the amount to adjust each player should be crafted to the player's unique situation.
You will find that if you use the projections from Footballguys, we have already done this and our projections for Patterson and other significant players are lower than we might have set as their "most likely" projection. The end result should be the ranking you get from the tools is more appropriate for where Patterson should be drafted.
One benefit of knowing this is realizing there is more upside available in the rankings of these returners than you might have for other offensive players. Particularly when taking backup players where upside is a focus, you may wish to take into account the extra upside for returners, and treat the player as ranked a little higher than the application shows.
Fantasy Significant Returners
Footballguys already makes available complete projections for returners. Since scoring systems, league setups and roster sizes vary, it would be difficult for me to provide in this article a list of every returner worthy of a roster spot for your league. But using MyFBG, Draft Dominator, or the Footballguys Draft Apps you can generate rankings which will take returns into account.
Instead, my focus here will be more general, on players who already have fantasy significance on offense but who also stand a fair chance at getting return yards. I will also attempt to express how much uncertainty I think there is on the player actually getting those returns. The players here are ordered by team. To rank them by their up to date projections for them, you should instead use MyFBG or the link above.
WR Wes Welker, Denver
Wes Welker handled 10 punts last season for Denver, primarily in situations where the team did not want to risk ball security issues from Trindon Holliday. Holliday is gone to the Giants now, but head coach John Fox indicated he did not want to use Welker on punts this year. It looked like Jordan Norwood was going to land the job before he was lost to an ACL injury. Welker may be back to being the favorite now, but knowing the team does not want to subject him to the extra chance of injury makes Welker a higher risk than some to count on for return yards.
WR Golden Tate, Detroit
Golden Tate handled punts for Seattle last season, but now finds himself on the Detroit Lions. Jeremy Ross was one of the best returners in the entire NFL last season, making it unlikely Tate will see many returns unless an injury happens or Ross fails to produce. I would consider him to be high risk of getting any returns for this reason mainly because of Ross.
WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay
Two seasons ago receiver Randall Cobb was one of the most valuable receivers in many return leagues primarily because of return yards. Head coach Mike McCarthy has waffled for two seasons now on how much he is willing to risk Cobb to injury on returns. Micah Hyde emerged as a solid returner for the Packers last season, though his own increased importance on defense had McCarthy initially sounding reluctant to continue using even Hyde. More recently, McCarthy seemed to change his mind again, saying, "I've got to get away from that thinking. I think it's dangerous to get into limitations and trying to be too cautious. When you get cautious and worry negative things happen. So we're going to put our best players out there. We need to be better on special teams and a good returner makes any return unit better." While this bodes well for Cobb, one cannot help but worry McCarthy will change his mind again. I would say that Cobb is a high risk to count on for returns, but he also has a tremendous upside if he does manage to get a significant number of returns.
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota
Cordarrelle Patterson's game as a receiver is still emerging, but a top 20 wide receiver ranking from just receiving stats isn't unreasonable. His return stats added in could make him one of the top fantasy receivers even in leagues that give half as many points for returns as they do receiving yards. Patterson is the most important receiver on his team which adds some risk of the Vikings deciding he cannot be risked on returns, but the presence of Adrian Peterson at least means he is not the most important offensive player. Head coach Mike Zimmer has said of Patterson returning kickoffs, "We want our best players to get their hands on the ball as much as possible. We're not going to keep him from returning kicks because he is such a dangerous weapon there." Overall I would say Patterson has a medium amount of risk of being pulled from the return game. The exceptional edge Patterson brings in the return game is one I think Zimmer will want to stick with.
WR Julian Edelman, New England
The Patriots have shown they are not reluctant to risk their receivers to injury on returns. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman combined to handle punts two seasons ago, and last season Edelman handled all the punts except for one by backup returner Danny Amendola. With the track record Bill Belichick has with his punt returners, I would consider Edelman to be a low risk of losing returns to something like protecting him from injury.
WR Brandin Cooks, New Orleans
Brandin Cooks has yet to land the punt return job, though he is listed as the backup for both punts and kickoffs. I think we should expect him to get some returns over the course of the year even if Travaris Cadet is listed as the primary returner. Coach Sean Payton has regularly used offensive players on returns in the past, including Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, so I would consider Cooks as a low risk to lose return opportunities based on issues like avoiding injury risk.
RB Darren Sproles, Philadelphia
Coach Chip Kelly used DeSean Jackson on just over half of the Eagles punt returns last season, so has some track record on using offensive starters as returners. Now 31-years old, Darren Sproles has dropped off some as a returner in recent seasons, giving some risk based on his age though losing opportunities for declining performance isn't the type of uncertainty unique to returners. As far as being denied return opportunities for injury concerns though, Sproles would seem to be a lower risk than some others, given the team has a high caliber starting running back already.
WR Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
Antonio Brown handled every punt for the Steelers last season, so head coach Mike Tomlin has shown in the past he will live with the increased injury risk. However, the team drafted Dri Archer in part for his return ability. Archer is currently the starting kick returner and is backup to Brown on punts. It would not be difficult to envision the team giving punts to Archer if he takes advantage of his opportunities on kickoffs. Because of this, I'd consider Brown at a higher risk to lose opportunities, and currently project him as only receiving half of the team's punt returns so he does not end up too high in final rankings.
WR Keenan Allen, San Diego
While the Chargers list Keenan Allen as the backup punt returner, the team's return jobs have been largely unsettled for two seasons now. The Chargers could go so many directions I would look at returns that Allen gets as upside rather than something I would want to count on for where he is drafted. Very high risk, especially as he is not even the primary returner at present.
WR Percy Harvin, Seattle
Last season with Percy Harvin injured, coach Pete Carroll stuck with Golden Tate as his punt returner, suggesting he is willing to deal with the extra injury risk. In 2014, he already has key defensive players Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman listed as the top two punt returners, and Harvin as the kick returner. While Harvin's injury history is significant enough it should be considered for receiving as well as returns, I am starting to come around to the belief Harvin may see a lot of the kickoff returns this season. I currently have him projected as getting about 40% of Seattle's returns which I think places him in about the right area of the rankings for how Carroll might handle a player with his injury history. This leaves a lot of upside for Harvin.
WR Tavon Austin, St Louis
Coach Jeff Fisher is another coach who has waffled in the past about how much to use offensive starters as returners, and Tavon Austin specifically. I would expect Austin will see some returns, but is at a medium to high risk to lose return opportunities. The loss of Isaiah Pead to injury may help Austin's cause as a returner, though Pead was likely a backup. Another thing in Austin's favor is that if he is not producing as a receiver, the team will try to find ways to get him involved and that may mean more returns. So perhaps a good way to look at returns for Austin is not as upside, but as a moderating influence should his other production dip.
WR Andre Roberts, Washington
Andre Roberts as strictly a receiver would probably be at most a late pick in most leagues, or perhaps a bye week filler in deep leagues, so barely makes this list. But as a player who could land both the kickoff and punt return jobs for his team, he has a chance to tack on quite a few return yards. He does not have the return jobs locked down yet, but I believe he probably will win them. While we don't have a track record from his coaching staff to go on, the lack of solid options at kick returner and the amount of receiving targets on the team may make Roberts a lower risk at losing returns than some. DeSean Jackson may be a threat on punt returns, but that tends to fall more into the realm of being outplayed than losing returns due to factors unique to returners. Either way, the risk from Jackson is factored into Roberts' projection.
WR DeSean Jackson, Washington
Teammate Andre Roberts is more likely to land both return jobs, but DeSean Jackson may handle some punt returns during the course of the season. I would consider relying on fantasy points from returns for Jackson to be a high risk proposition. He is at risk to win the job, and with a first time head coach it can be difficult to say how willing Washington will be to risk one of his primary receivers.
