Reading the Defense: Linebacker Tiers (Early Camp Update)

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.)

THIS IS THE EARLY TRAINING CAMP UPDATE (LATE JULY)

Training camps are here. With them come injuries and depth chart shuffles, but -- finally -- some clarity on exactly what teams are expecting from their rosters, who will play where and when. The number of names in the redraft watch list tier will dwindle. And the updates to this feature will come more often.

I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (July 5). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. 

I've also included an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on July 31) will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings and ADP data from recent drafts at MFL. If a player does not have an ADP in his column, it means he wasn't ranked in the top 60 in at least two of the three consensus rank lists.

TIER 1 | ELITE LB1

Barring some positive signs in the very deep tier jumper category below, this won't be a season to slough this tier and look for safe value later. You'll need at least one of this tier on your roster this year to avoid what could be a frustrating season of chasing matchups and worrying over snap counts for the players in the middle ranks. We've already lost three consensus elite backers to injury or suspension (Sean Lee, Kiko Alonso, Daryl Washington). Riskier names are moving into the lower tiers on numbers alone -- someone has to finish in the LB2 ranks -- but the pool of true every-down strong fantasy options has already weakened. You'll be wise not to let this tier pass you by in favor of deeper WR and RB rosters this summer.

TIER 1A | ELITE LB1 UPSIDE

There's an argument to jump these three names up into the elite tier group due to their high floor and scrap this hedge tier altogether. But I'm hopeful that camp elevates a few additional names into this tier by early August. Woodyard stands out to me as the best upper tier value on the board.

TIER 2A | RISK-REWARD LB2

Here's why you'll want to attack the elite tiers this year. The floor of this group is riskier than usual. Some will establish themselves as stronger options than others during preseason games, but -- other than Jamie Collins -- this isn't a tier that screams value. Also, remember, in a straight rank list the names in this tier will be intermixed with the other Tier 2 players. I'll keep my "rankings-only" list current here so you can see how the tiers mix during camp.

TIER 2B | HIGH FLOOR LB2

This group is also riskier than usual. Generally, I use this tier to list players I'd be comfortable using as my LB2 every week in a pinch and would be very happy running out as an every-week LB3 starter in balanced scoring systems. Each of these players put up solid numbers and will be in similar situations this year. But there's an argument that every player on this list will struggle to reach last year's numbers or will have more weekly variance than expected.

TIER 2C | RUSH / BIG PLAY LB2

I wish this tier was a little deeper, because I'd advocate looking here if you aren't excited about the non-rush prospects. If you're going to use a high variance option in balanced scoring systems, you may as well go all or nothing.

TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

This tier is starting to become more attractive. Foster, Jones, Robinson and Brown are all seeing an uptick in value, making the top half of this tier stronger with each passing week.

TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3

If you decide you'd rather not mess with risky players from the middle tiers, the top half of this tier are solid LB3s you can rely on if you heavily target the elite DE and safety tiers instead.

a note about the following tiers

We may still see players move into the draftable tiers above, but it's time to make definitive calls on the long list of players who were previously in the watch list tier. Some have moved up, some will be dropped from the tiers altogether. In addition to the established Matchup Rush LB tier, I'm adding a Early Season Matchup Cloud tier (for watch list players who didn't end up in a better role but still have depth value) and a Inseason Speed Dial tier (for players who will immediately jump in value with any role change).

Your scoring system, roster depth and lineup requirements will determine whether any of these players are immediately rosterable or waiver wire targets in the first month of the season.

MATCHUP RUSH LB

There are some intriguing names here and lots of suitable flyers for those in big play heavy scoring systems. Orakpo, in particular, might move into the LB2 tier if I can convince myself that his ceiling is easily reachable.

BEST OF EARLY SEASON MATCHUP CLOUD

This group look locked into to a role already. Most of them have limited upside unfortunately, but could be strong matchup plays for those in tackle-heavy leagues in the right situation. Bradham, Barr and Durant are the most likely candidates to pop early this season.

INSEASON SPEED DIAL WATCHLIST

The players in this group have the potential to see their role change into a much more attractive fantasy situaiton at some point this season. Any of them may have a LB3++ ceiling if things break just right for them.

FORMER REDRAFT WATCH LIST

These players were listed in the early July tier update. The top four players are worth your waiver wire attention but aren't likely to have every-week starter upside without a lot of help.

DYNASTY STASH

Players listed here are either young vets buried on the depth chart or recently drafted prospects with some long term potential. Or they are named Brandon Graham. If you thought I'd be taking Graham off this list, know that it will now never happen after Graham favorited my "Free Brandon Graham!!" tweet during the draft last month.

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.