WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier and draft prospects list at the end of each positional article.
(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated.)
Tier 1 | Elite LB1
I don't have much context to add to this group. But as you'll see as you read through the tiers, this won't be a season to slough this tier and look for safe value later. You'll need at least one of this tier on your roster this year to avoid what could be a frustrating season of chasing matchups and worrying over snap counts for the players in the middle ranks.
| Luke Kuechly | May not finish as the LB1 overall, but arguably still the safest target on your draft board |
| Lavonte David | New scheme is perfect fit, but not much room to improve on last year's numbers, especially big plays |
| Vontaze Burfict | Barring surprise draft splash, depth chart is still Burfict and a bunch of role players, stat crew now a positive |
| Paul Posluszny | Though not an elite player, opportunity and surrounding cast make him near lock to repeat 100 solos |
| Patrick Willis | Still a stud, Bowman likely to miss half the season, could be #1 overall fantasy LB again |
| Daryl Washington | If avoids suspension (a big if) will return to elite status with Dansby gone in free agency |
| Sean Lee | Durability is primary concern, but all-around stud without much of a supporting cast will bring big numbers |
| Derrick Johnson | Steady, capable of big plays every week, KC still hasn't paired him with a decent talent at ILB |
| Karlos Dansby | Huge season last year, should keep momentum in Cleveland |
Tier 1A | Elite LB1 Upside
I think I'll upgrade Mayo at some point this offseason. Alonso and Worrilow (among a few others to follow) are hot names, but I'm a little wary of elevating them to elite status yet. Elite stats don't always come from elite talent and there are reasons for concern for many of last year's breakout fantasy linebackers.
| Kiko Alonso | Don't overdraft ~ move to OLB not concern, but snap count, rush attempts faced, assist count will drop |
| James Laurinaitis | Gregg Williams at DC will help, could get big play bump, but presence of Ogletree will continue to limit ceiling |
| Jerod Mayo | Should return strong from pectoral injury, favorable home stat crew, supporting cast marginal |
| Paul Worrilow | May deserve elite ranking but play didn't match numbers last year, likely transitioning to 3-4 |
| Bobby Wagner | Home stat crew depresses solo numbers, strong defense limits opportunity |
Tier 2A | Risk-Reward LB2
Here's why you'll want to attack the elite tiers this year. The floor of this group is riskier than usual. Some will establish themselves as stronger options than others during preseason games, but -- for now -- this isn't a tier that screams value.
| Alec Ogletree | Instincts questionable, but athleticism more than made up for it statistically last year |
| Lawrence Timmons | High ceiling earns him slot here rather than High Floor LB2 tier, narrowly outside Elite LB1 Upside tier |
| Brian Cushing | Fragile but enters offseason healthy, little competition for tackles |
| Audie Cole | Favorite to win MLB job, but don't invest too heavily until we hear Zimmer's thoughts |
| Danny Trevathan | May be lone every-down backer in Denver, productive without Woodyard last year |
| Wesley Woodyard | Scheme, alignment remain an unknown in Tenneseee, but Horton pursued him in free agency |
| D'Qwell Jackson | Assist-happy stat crew, presence of Freeman mean a wide range of expectation |
tier 2B | High Floor LB2
This group is riskier than usual, too. Generally, I use this tier to list players I'd be comfortable using as my LB2 every week in a pinch and would be very happy running out as an every-week LB3 starter in balanced scoring systems. Each of these players put up solid numbers and will be in similar situations this year. But there's an argument that every player on this list will struggle to reach last year's numbers or will have more weekly variance than expected.
| Daryl Smith | Goofy stat line last year (57-66, 5 sack, 18 passes defensed), hard to project elite ceiling |
| Perry Riley | Arguably belongs in risk-reward tier, but not sure his ceiling is in that range |
| DeMeco Ryans | Quietly top ten fantasy option with strong solo tackle and peripherals last year |
| Stephen Tulloch | Scheme independent fantasy option, should be dependable every-week starter again |
| Chad Greenway | Zimmer scheme should be good for Greenway, 90 solo season still unlikely |
| Curtis Lofton | Steady production last year, should remain every-down linebacker with solid opporutnity |
| Thomas Davis | Stellar talent, upside blunted slightly due to Kuechly's strong play between tackles |
| Jerrell Freeman | May be underrating him, but will have stiffer competition for tackles this year, stat crew remains an issue |
| Nick Roach | Expected more solos last year, but solid big play value means he may be underrated here |
| Jon Beason | Level of play has dropped, but will see enough opportunity to approach 85 solos |
tier 2c | rush / big play lb2
I wish this tier was a little deeper, because I'd advocate looking here if you aren't excited about the non-rush prospects. If you're going to use a high variance option in balanced scoring systems, you may as well go all or nothing.
| Terrell Suggs | Wasn't limited by Achilles last year, just keeps throwing up 50-10 seasons |
| Justin Houston | Likely would have finished in top ten in balanced leagues last year if it weren't for elbow dislocation |
| Robert Mathis | Won't repeat last year's 19 sack effort, but still top tier big play threat |
| Von Miller | Will drop out of this tier if he's not ready for opening weekend |
tier 3a | Upside LB3
I'd like this group better were I convinced of an elite ceiling for Te'o and Minter or Zach Brown and Kendricks had shown more consistency to date. I think this tier will see the most turnover -- players moving up, players moving out, players moving in from the watch list -- than any other in the coming weeks.
| NaVorro Bowman | Likely to start season on PUP, tough to target as more than your LB4 |
| Zach Brown | Someone will benefit from Horton's aggressive scheme, Brown has issues but most athletic of potentials |
| Arthur Brown | Lost valuable developmental time to injury last year, good chance at every-down role |
| Mychal Kendricks | Ryans' rebound limited numbers last year, still some upside but ceiling not high enough to slot higher |
| Manti Te'o | Should have chance to play every down this year, ceiling questionable |
| Brad Jones | Stubbornly keeping him here despite not playing in subpackages after midseason injury, draft as LB4/5 only |
| Sean Weatherspoon | Range dropped considerably, issues tackling, could be better as 3-4 ILB now |
| Mason Foster | New coaching staff could see him as more than base run defender -- or less |
| Kevin Minter | Unproven, but favorite to start, Washington's legal issues / possible suspension may play role |
tier 3b | high floor lb3
I'm not certain I have Carter tiered correctly, but I'm hopeful a year in the playbook and some improvement in the defensive line pushes his numbers toward a more smooth line each week. If you decide you'd rather not mess with risky players from the middle tiers, the top half of this tier are solid LB3s you can rely on if you heavily target the elite DE and safety tiers instead.
| Donald Butler | Inconsistent with durability concerns, but high floor bet when he plays |
| Kevin Burnett | Quietly another strong year but low ceiling option |
| David Harris | Strong between the tackles linebacker, but not rangy enough to put up elite stats |
| Lance Briggs | Was off to good start last year, questionable surrounding cast could boost 2014 numbers |
| A.J. Hawk | Just enough production to roster as a solid bye week replacement |
| Bruce Carter | Flashes of brilliance, but lack of consistency against the run has made him frustrating |
| DeAndre Levy | Unlikely to repeat last year's tackle numbers, change in scheme won't help either |
matchup rush lb
There are some intriguing names here and lots of suitable flyers for those in big play heavy scoring systems. Orakpo, in particular, might move into the LB2 tier if I can convince myself that his ceiling is easily reachable.
| Aldon Smith | Would include in second tier but off-field issues could bring long suspension |
| Tamba Hali | Always a lock for 40-10 floor, solid LB2 in big play leagues |
| Barkevious Mingo | Either dominant or dominated last year, development will skew ratio toward dominant soon |
| Clay Matthews | Not enough tackles to rank higher, durability concerns |
| Junior Galette | Needs work against run to be every-week option, but pass rush was there in full time duty |
| Elvis Dumervil | Big pass rush numbers, non-existent tackle stats due to role in defense |
| Brian Orakpo | Rumors of more aggressive rush scheme, on franchise tag, set up for big year |
| Melvin Ingram III | Talent is there to be next Robert Mathis, but injuries have slowed development |
| Ryan Kerrigan | Probably underrating him here again, high floor with questionable ceiling |
| Quinton Coples | Was better against run than expected but pass rush upside worrisome |
| Whitney Mercilus | Started out strong then shut down after teams adjusted, upside opposite Watt remains |
| John Abraham | Pressure numbers are still there, but boom-bust weekly option |
redraft watch list
Moreso than ever, the league is trending toward platoons and rotations, limiting the tackle upside of many once-viable schemes and roles. None of these players are valuable enough to roster as potential starters. With luck, the preseason will put at least a few into fantasy friendly situations.
| D.J. Williams | Bears likely to start him at MLB, outside chance at every-down role |
| Dannell Ellerbe | Brutal in run defense last year, Dolphins may be considering Koa Misi as base MLB |
| Jamie Collins | Versatile enough to play inside and outside, will jump into higher tier if role is favorable |
| Jelani Jenkins | Ellerbe was bad, Wheeler worse, may be every-down role for taking at OLB |
| Vincent Rey | Longshot, as team seems to like Maualuga a little better, but glimmer of hope worth watching |
| Brandon Spikes | Steps into MLB role immediately, favorable stat crew, but durability and every-down questions |
| Nate Irving | Favorite to start inside, but no lock to play in subpackages |
| Demario Davis | Disappointing all around play, but snap count will be there should he make the leap |
| Keenan Robinson | May be wishful thinking here, especially with durability concern, but WAS depth chart wide open |
| Jon Bostic | High speed score does not a MLB make, may be base SLB only this year |
| LaRoy Reynolds | Jags recently cut Russell Allen, door open for Reynolds to assume every-down OLB role |
| Sio Moore | Would love to see OAK use more often, but role likely limited again this year |
| DeVonte Holloman | Carter and Holloman both disappointing, though beat up defensive line didn't help |
| Corey Lemonier | At minimum, high leverage rotational role but could prove good enough against run to do more |
dynasty stash
This time of year, most of the prime dynasty watch players are on the redraft watch list. Those that land in this tier are often buried on the depth chart and that's the case with these four.
| Michael Mauti | Missed potential opportunity, may have been passed by Cole, still talented enough to stash and observe |
| Brandon Graham | Stubbornly still on watch list, needs new team and opportunity |
| Kevin Reddick | Stuck behind Hawthorne for now, but could produce nicely if gets a chance |
| Ty Powell | Spikes drops him down list, but could be solid between tackles linebacker with some pass rush upside |
HIGH VALUE DRAFT PROSPECTS
I'll fill in this tier once I've finished evaluating prospects.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.