Reading the Defense: Defensive Back Tiers (Post-OTA Update)

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by staffer comments in recent seasons, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts). I have included a separate dynasty stash tier and discussion at the end of each positional article.

I've added a new column to the tables to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (June 1). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. 

In this post-minicamp set of tier articles, I'm also adding an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on July 5) will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings and ADP data from recent drafts at MFL. If a player does not have an ADP in his column, it means he wasn't ranked in the top 60 in at least two of the three consensus rank lists.

THE BIG PICTURE

Ten years ago, the defensive back position used to be one of my favorite areas to rank. Offenses were straightforward, base defenses were stable and teams rarely platooned players. If you had a working knowledge of the coverages a team preferred to run and the skill sets of their secondary, you could make smart, consistent bets on which players were likely to see the most statistical opportunity.

Unfortunately, the league isn't simple anymore.

83 cornerbacks and 64 safeties -- 147 defensive backs -- played at least 500 snaps in 2012 according to ProFootballFocus. That number increased again in 2013, with 88 corners and 73 safeties (161 defensive backs) seeing 500 or more snaps. That's an average of more than five players per team seeing at least half of their defense's available snaps. 

The defensive line and linebacker groups have significantly fewer players reach that plateau, with around 100 players each.

Not all of those snaps are created equally. Game situation, down and distance, personnel and surrounding cast have much more to do with the fantasy upside of any given snap then ever before. Free safeties moving to the slot, strong safeties moving to linebacker and non-starters moving into a key tackling role on subpackage downs are becoming more and more common. It's become very difficult to project yearly and weekly tackle numbers for defensive backs.

And that's changed my roster philosophy for defensive backs over the past 3-5 seasons. I now believe that there are two main tiers for DB-inclusive leagues. The first tier includes the players I believe have Elite DB1 potential -- 80+ solo tackles or 60+ solos with elite peripheral coverage stat (FF/INT/PD) upside. The second tier includes everyone else.

It's also important to have a short memory. If an "Elite DB" isn't performing as such, move on. It's okay for your defensive back roster spots to remain fluid all season long.

I'll still be lumping and splitting players into more than two tiers in this feature. But realize that every single defensive back that could see 40 or more snaps in a given week belongs somewhere in the matchup cloud. You're probably thinking, "Come on, Bramel. That's almost 200 players." Yup. Get used to it. Nickel and dime corners and hybrid nickel safeties may hold just as much value as a starter.

Scouting IDPs is as much about scouting opportunity as talent. The paradigm has changed. We've adapted to front seven rotations and nickel linebacker specialists in recent seasons. It's time to do the same here.

SAFETY TIERS

I think it's worth separating the safety and cornerback tiers. They're two different animals. Some safeties derive the bulk of their value from playing in coverage, but most are going to live and die in fantasy lineups on the strength of their tackle efficiency against the run. I consider peripheral stats -- forced fumbles, interceptions, sacks and passes defensed -- but there's more variance in those numbers for most safeties. I build the framework of the safety tiers from tackle expectation.

TIER 1 - ELITE SAFETY

This tier should be deep this year. More spread offenses mean fewer linebackers on the field to compete for tackles and more secondary opportunity. Though the in-the-box strong safety isn't back in vogue, the glory days when fantasy owners had multiple 80-100 solo tackle safeties to choose among have returned.

TIER 2 - ELITE SAFETY UPSIDE | HIGH FLOOR DB2

There isn't much difference between the end of the top tier and the beginning of this second tier of safeties. This tier, as it did last year, could morph into a Tier 1A by mid-August. If it does, the upper ranks will look deeper than they've been since I started doing these tier features a few years ago.

TIER 3 - WEEKLY STARTERS WITH UPSIDE

This year's group of safety prospects is so strong that I've added another tier to separate those players I like enough to roster now from those that will likely have starting fantasy value in three DB leagues but are only matchup cloud options for me.

TIER 4 - MATCHUP SAFETY CLOUD

Extend this tier to the nth degree if you like, especially in deeper leagues. This group consists of the players most likely to move up into a clearly rosterable tier by the end of the preseason.

DYNASTY STASH

These five players are talented enough or in a strong enough situation for the future to strongly consider rostering in dynasty leagues now. Clinton-Dix should be rostered in all dynasty league where 25 or more safeties are rostered. The others should be monitored closely in all but the deepest of leagues.

CORNERBACK TIERS

Historically, you could do well at cornerback by grabbing the most physical players or trolling for Tampa-2 starters. That's not the case any longer.

What I tend to favor now is:

1. A physical corner who will shed blocks and defend the run.
2. A confident corner with good ball skills.
3. A versatile corner who plays outside, then slides into the slot in subpackages.
4. A decent corner playing opposite a stud cover corner.
5. A corner who plays more zone coverage than man coverage.
6. A corner for a team likely to see above-average passing attempts.
7. A corner playing for a team likely to see high tackle opportunity with weak front seven tacklers.

The more criteria a player fits, the more attractive they are to me. For example, Charles Tillman arguably fits lines 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7. Justin Gilbert should fit 1, 2, and possibly 4 and 7. It's not always predictive. There will be players who finish in the top five who do not fit the criteria well. Minimal investment, a short memory, trend analysis and some film study will help you navigate the week-to-week variance here.

HIGH FLOOR CB1

If you look at this shallow list of three and think that you aren't comfortable investing or trusting in any of them, I'm right with you. I've nearly deleted this tier in both tier installments thus far. There will undoubtedly be corners who top 70 solos and/or 20 passes defensed, but I think this will be a season to start by streaming corner until you have one putting up consistently strong numbers.

BEST CB MATCHUP CLOUD BETS

I listed 45 players on my initial spreadsheet of those cornerbacks I felt could have rosterable value early in the season. These 12 made the cut as best bets. There's no reason to panic here. Checking matchups and moving quickly on early season breakouts will serve you better than filling your roster with three unknowns before opening weekend. You should be using those spots to stash upside linebackers and defensive ends whose situations could break big in training camp.

DYNASTY STASH

If your rosters are deep enough to allow a third or fourth cornerback, consider stashing one of these five players. Their time could come sooner than later. There are many other young corners to watch. For a full list of rookies I'm watching closely, see my combined draft board feature.

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.