1. find the match up, exploit the match up
The Washington-Arizona tilt was a fun game on the docket before I learned that Dick Stockton and Chris Spielman would call it. Before tuning in, I had a note about Dez Bryant's touchdown catch against the Vikings defense that reads, "A team will wait for 1-2 plays a game where it can exploit a matchup. The team that does, often wins."
There is a fantasy point to this so stay with me.
Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes covered Bryant for much of the contest. Although Bryant earned receptions against Rhodes, it was a tough matchup for the Dallas receiver—especially deep, because Rhodes is one of the few corners with the size, strength, and speed to hold up to Bryant.
It was no coincidence that Dallas went to Bryant deep on the play where Rhodes was not on the receiver.
Sunday afternoon in Arizona, Spielman began the second-half broadcast analysis with an excellent point about one of the things that make the NFL unique to the college game. To paraphrase, Spielman said the league is about one-on-one matchups and at certain points, a team has to find a favorable one-on-one matchup and exploit that matchup.
Many of the great plays we see in the league every week fit this thought. The next two plays I'll share that fit this idea came from the losing side, but they are great illustrations of how offenses are watchful for that single moment where they can exploit a bad match-up—even if it only happens once.
Tyvon Branch is a versatile player when healthy. Unfortunately, he has difficulty staying on the field. Since his years with the Raiders, he'll author strong weeks and then spend several more recuperating from an injury. Two teams later, Branch began the season well in Arizona only to miss most of the year.
He returned this weekend and while you could see the big-play potential of his game, the rust was apparent and eventually, Washington exploited him. This may have been more coincidence than plan, but the match-up advantage that Washington created was preceded the play before by this blitz off the left edge.
Branch gets distracted by the play fake and misses the sack. On the following play, Washington puts DeSean Jackson in the slot and Branch has the speedster deep. Kirk Cousins notes this immediately and Jackson is the priority read.
Here's the two-play sequence below.
Although Washington didn't know for sure that Branch would wind up over Jackson on this play, the staff scouted the Cardinals and knew the type of coverage Arizona plays in specific down-and-distance situations. It meant that they were looking for that opportunity to get Jackson in the slot on Branch and go to town. It's possible that after Branch whiffed on the sack, Washington called this alignment with the hope it could draw this matchup and pick on Branch while he's down.
Whatever the motivation was, the play worked.
Sunday night's game also featured a prominent example of this idea in action. When free safety Earl Thomas cracked his tibia, Carolina targeted Ted Ginn Jr, Jr. on the next play, sending him on a post versus a Cover 2 (two high safeties).
Forgive me as I screw up the explanation of the coverage below—I misidentify the position locations in the audio track—there are two high safeties and the man in the middle isn't a safety but a linebacker dropped deep enough that, in theory, he should account for any deep middle routes that normally can exploit a Cover 2 (this is why Brian Urlacher was so awesome).
The fantasy takeaway here is that it's very rare that an opponent will use a single stud defender to cover a top receiver or tight end then entire game and if the offense is competent enough, you can bet that top playmaker will earn a target or two when that stud defender is on someone else. It's why you shouldn't get too cute with top starters unless a truly explainable plan and precedent that illustrates how your meal ticket will get locked out of the kitchen.
2. Ladarius Green, Fantasy scorer (Ben Roethlisberger, Iron city magic johnson)
My buddy Jack Perkins, a talented artist who does all of those cool basketball illustrations at Bleacher Report, asked me for some last-minute advice on Sunday on Green versus the Giants. He wanted to know if I liked the matchup and did the Giants play enough man for it to work out.
My initial answer was yes, Landon Collins would probably draw Green and while Collins is a great box safety and enforcer at the catch-point, he's not a great cover defender.
To be completely honest, I then asked Jack what his other options were and he mentioned Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as a pairing. I jumped all over that one and told Jack that I liked that one much better. I hope it worked out for you Jack, or I hope if it didn't, you stuck with Green.
Green and the Steelers also noted this great match-up advantage and exploited it for the touchdown.
I noted seven targets for Green and only one of them wasn't a route run against man coverage. This is a great sign for Green owners down the stretch, because as I noted here in the past, he's not a savvy zone receiver.
Fortunately, Green has Ben Roethlisberger, who, unlike Philip Rivers, can elude multiple defenders and wave his hands without one of his legs getting stuck in cement. This happened on Sunday to the tune of 38 yards when Green ran a crossing route, turned to Roethlisberger and stopped momentarily at the end of his break.
Roethlisberger spotted Green, waved the tight end downfield, worked to an open area, and cut the ball loose to the tight end up the right sideline line.
Steeler fans and friends, you may retort that Roethlisberger even plays air traffic controller to Antonio Brown on a regular basis—including this game—but I'll add that a crossing route usually converts up the sideline. It's something a receiver should do as he runs out of real estate on a break where he doesn't come open. Brown's touchdown at the end line was a better example of a scenario where Roethlisberger needed to wave his FAA badge.
Despite the fact that Green will need added tutelage and extra assistance to the jetway, the fact that Roethlisberger is willing to provide the assist is a good sign. An even better sign is that the Steelers face Buffalo next weekend—a team that also plays a lot of man against seam receivers. The true test will be Cincinnati's zone in Week 15.
3. State of the Chiefs offense
In August, my wife Alicia asked me to pick a Falcons game on the schedule and we'd plan her father's visit around that weekend. Carolina and Green Bay were natural preseason choices, but I needed it to be a game later in the year.
I thought the Chiefs would be a good matchup. I didn't expect either team to be as good as they have been, but I liked a lot of the individual players on the Chiefs, the discipline of the Kansas City offense, and its big-play defense. I thought it had the best chance of being a close game.
I'd say a one-point victory for Kansas City that was snatched from a one-point go-ahead touchdown by the Falcons met my expectations and then some. Unfortunately, Alicia's dad had to reschedule.
I spent much of the afternoon grousing about us missing a great game. We would have been in the end zone with a great view of some fun plays:
- Spencer Ware's second touchdown.
- Georgia State alum Albert Wilson's run up the gut on a fake punt for a long score.
- One of Devonta Freeman's one-yard plunges.
And the pièce de résistance, Atlanta native Eric Berry making the game-winning interception on the two-point conversion attempt. I'll still have fun hanging with my pops at the Georgia Dome in a couple of weeks, but is it too late for the power of prayer and will it help the 49ers play inspired football?
Back to the Chiefs. Although Atlanta's defense is one significant player weaker after Desmond Trufant's injury a couple of weeks back, Kansas City has the makings of a dangerous postseason unit. With Oakland, Tennessee, and Denver ahead, it remains a good resource for established—and perhaps, desperation—fantasy starters.
The best option is Travis Kelce. All three defenses have linebackers with coverage weaknesses and all three units are aggressive defenders in the run game. It should translate to strong opportunities in the play-action game like the one below.
Because I agree with Tony Gonzalez and Rhonde Barber that Kelce is the best YAC tight end in the league—that includes Captain Pelvic Thrust, Rob Gronkowski—you should also count on a fair number of screens against these opponents.
The fact that Jeremy Maclin even had the potential to play on Sunday is a good sign. If he can return in a week or two, expect some fireworks in the vertical passing game. Here's a play that I think Maclin would have made that Chris Conley dropped.
Smith's look-off, footwork, and timing were impeccable. Thanks to his timing with his hitch and release, the placement was excellent.
The Chiefs will earn these opportunities repeatedly down the stretch because of its ground game and the two seam-busters it has in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
I would not shy away from Hill until further notice. He's a fully-integrated red zone presence in this offense as both a gadget and a receiver. Here's one of the gadget wrinkles that wasn't unactivated on Sunday: a split backfield with Spencer Ware.
The Chiefs also use Wildcat with Hill in the backfield and Ware as the quarterback. In a more traditionalist way, Hill's targets on short passes beyond the line of scrimmage and screen passes continue as part of his red zone menu.
Hill remains an upside WR3 or coveted flex. Kelce is a top-3 tight end. Ware is an RB2 with RB1 upside. Smith is a streamer QB1. And unless Maclin talks about being less than 100 percent, I'd insert the receiver into my lineups as a WR3 as soon as he's ready.
Conley, Albert Wilson, and Charcandrick West are all players I'd continue to monitor on the waiver wire if needed.
4. eric Kendricks
The Vikings linebacker is one of my favorite young players in football. If you play dynasty IDP and you value linebackers like wide receivers, Kendricks has a great opportunity to become that 12-year veteran with LB1 production for the better part of a decade. He's an LB4 in many fantasy leagues this year, but remove the two games where he was hurt and he's at least an LB2.
I'm not giving you state secrets here. Most of you with an IDP clue covet Kendricks as a young player on the rise. But this is a feature where I share what I notice and despite the play of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Bryant, Adam Thielen, and a host of other offensive players, Kendricks stood out the most.
Week after week, he stops some of the best space players in the game in one-on-one situations. Two weeks ago, he curtailed a Detroit drive by stifling Theo Riddick on a pass to the flat. This week, he did the same to Elliott.
There's more reason why Elliott owners should be cursing Kendricks last week. The linebacker nullified a long Elliott run in the first half with a wily veteran move to sell the officials on a penalty that didn't exist.
Some of you probably lost games and playoff spots due to this play. Kendricks ends the Cowboys drive that he extended for the Vikings in a good way with a fumble recovery.
Although not as exciting as Ryan Shazier, Kendricks is a far more disciplined run defender who always seems to be at the right spot in every phase of the game.
He also has a good pair of mitts when it comes to picking off quarterbacks on shallow drops into coverage and cutting off receivers from angles his opponents didn't expect. If the Vikings can continue to field a strong line, Kendricks is set for a long time as a fantasy asset.
5. is Ryan Tannehill repairable?
I thought he was earlier this year, but I'm having second thoughts. The Ravens defense and staff told former MVP quarterback, Rich Gannon, that Tannehill's film reveals a passer who is clearly uncomfortable coming off his first read.
On one level, this doesn't surprise me. Tannehill has young receivers and much of the team has lacked discipline. Include the story I shared earlier this year about the past offensive schemes lacking the basic communication of clear route depths to develop a rapport with receivers, and it's easy to imagine Tannehill compensating for these failures with a far more cautious approach to reading the field.
But there's a point where good reasons become excuses. Beyond liking his dynasty prospects as a rookie, I haven't been one to wholeheartedly recommend Tannehill has a re-draft fantasy option during his career.
At least until the middle of this year. I like what Adam Gase is doing in Miami. He doesn't have the pieces on defense and he's spent a lot of time disciplining young players that tested his authority early. What he has accomplished with the tools he's been given is promising.
We're now at a point where I wonder if Gase will want Tannehill as his guy? Gase didn't study Tannehill before taking the job in Miami. He wanted a fresh look at the starter during the spring and summer.
With the year nearly over, I think Gase's decision on Tannehill could be one of the bigger potential offseason stories around the league. The QB's contract is through the end of 2019, but will Gase buy into Tannehill as the future or a lame duck starter as he looks for another prospect?
The answer will come with how Gase regards some of Tannehill's flaws. One of them is Tannehill's issues transitioning from one read to another in a progression. This interception below is the result of Tannehill going to his second read, but not leading Jarvis Landry to the open area.
One of the causes is footwork. Tannehill doesn't reset his feet to deliver the ball to the appropriate point. The ball goes where his feet are pointed, and that's behind Landry.
At the same time, the pressure off the edge forces Tannehill to make a quick throw. One could argue that he didn't have time to reset. Even so, the better starters in the league can still lead receivers in this range of the field with less than perfect setups.
One of Gase's public criticisms of Tannehill is the quarterback's footwork lacking the sharpness to deliver these passes. This is an area that can be fixed to a degree, but if pressure is part of the reason for the footwork breakdowns, it could be a more problematic rehab effort.
This contest was easily Tannehill's worst game of the year, so I'm not going to abandon the idea that he can improve in 2017. But it's worth noting that one-read-wonders, who stare down underneath coverage and have lazy footwork aren't inspiring long-term options.
6. Jordy nelson is back
It was snowing and wide receivers should have the advantage over defensive backs in this weather. Tell that to DeAndre Hopkins, who looked like a cat experiencing the white stuff for the first time.
Look familiar?
Nelson had no such problems against a good Texans secondary. The Packers receiver was physical, balanced, and, for the past few weeks, has looked a lot more like the top receiver he was before his ACL injury.
I don't care who Nelson draws against the Seahawks next week, without Earl Thomas the Seahawks are more vulnerable on deep targets and Nelson has the physicality to get the best of Richard Sherman when they're matched up. With 5 games of at least 90 yards during the past 6 weeks, start him if you got him.
Keep Spielman's thoughts from Point No.1 in mind.
7. Raiders ground game
Thursday Night's Audible included a discussion about the Raiders offense and what extra piece might they need to transition from "glad-to-be-here" playoff team to an actual contender. I said they might already have discovered that piece with the ground game.
I have not been a fan of Latavius Murray for a couple of years. I thought he was overhyped by some of the stats analysts who coveted his measurables but didn't look at how Murray used his athletic ability within the context of his position.
Murray's agility and quickness for his 230-pound frame are something he has often used to his detriment. Instead of getting downhill and bulldozing opponents, he often tried to make cutbacks with the hope of finding a breakaway lane. It's great that Murray could make some of the same cuts as LeSean McCoy, but he's not McCoy.
Murray's production over the past year and a half to two years has reflected this immaturity. He has been a boom-bust runner who generates huge gains when he could hit a crease clean but it came with a lot of dancing and shuffling for sub-par gains and losses.
I'm still not convinced that Murray has completely matured, but I'm seeing positive changes that should bode well for those with Murray this year. He's waiting longer to do his little dances and often at the appropriate places. This one-cut, downhill run is a good example.
The Raiders are also helping by giving him some gap plays where his focus is one crease, which discourages his tentative displays of the past.
The Raiders line is also playing well enough that he's earning opportunities to get into space where his athletic ability is an asset.
Murray has also developed a better downhill mentality. I saw him hit numerous creases with authority on Sunday. One of them knocked a linebacker on his rear end. Unfortunately, I don't have the clip or the time to fetch it, but he looked like a sledgehammer hitting a croquet ball.
I wonder if the coaching staff didn't point to UDFA Jalen Richard as an example. Richard is 20-25 pounds lighter than Murray, but he has always been a good finisher between the tackles. It's why he is the No.2 back earning significant time for the Raiders and at the expense the other backs on this roster.
Considering that much of the AFC's true contenders lack stiff run defenses, Murray could be as much of a playoff asset in January as I expect him to be in December.
8. "a captain goes down with his ship..."Jameis Winston
The Buccaneers quarterback had an excellent game against the Chargers that the box score didn't capture. Winston lost Cecil Shorts, Luke Stocker, and Adam Humphries in the first half and he routinely dealt with Melvin Ingram III and Joey Bosa in the pocket.
The Chargers painted Winston into corners that he routinely found his way out, delivering a division-tying victory in the process.
It's Winston's tight-window throws to receivers that he trusts that gives him a puncher's chance at QB1 production for fantasy owners on a weekly basis. Check out this rapport he displayed with Cameron Brate.
It's more than rapport with Winston. He's strong enough and mobile enough to buy time against some bad dudes.
I also like Winston's chances without Shorts or Humphries, because Russell Shepard and Freddie Martino appear good enough to do their jobs. Shepard has enough speed and skill with the ball in the air to do work in the red area and Martino has that Humphries-Harry Douglas game.
Add a healthy Jacquizz Rodgers back to the equation as a receiving option and a soft schedule of defenses (Dallas bookended by New Orleans), and I'd still roll with Winston as a low-end QB1 or streamer.
9. Catch of the week: The "mike Evans Move"
I hate the Calvin Johnson Rule. I just don't know what I hate more about it: the premise, the origin story, or that it's named after a great player who shouldn't have his career associated with a negative rule.
If we're going to label a foul with a player's name, I propose the "Michael Evans Move" as a worthwhile replacement. The Mike Evans Move is an illegal technique where the receiver grabs the yolk of a defender's jersey and rips him aside Steve Smith style—except that when Smith does it, he has the ball, which makes it legal, and when he does it, he isn't trying to hide it from officials.
Not the case with Evans.
Or Kelvin Benjamin, who hopes one day he can grow up to be as good as Evans.
Unfortunately for Evans, once Benjamin began using this move it reached the officials' radar. Why is it the Catch of the Week? Because this week, about several weeks too long, the Mike Evans Move became a penalty in the NFL.
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