Coaching Carousel: Jay Gruden

Gruden's coaching career began in 1997 as an Offensive Coordinator for the AFL's Nashville Kats and he even became the Head Coach of another AFL franchise, the Orlando Predators, before choosing to return to the field as the starting quarterback of the Predators. He soon found himself back on the sideline with coaching stints in the AFL, UFL, and also as on Offensive Assistant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where his older brother, Jon Gruden, was the Head Coach.

In 2011, the younger Gruden finally broke through into the NFL on his own when he became the Offensive Coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals:

Perhaps Washington took notice of Cincinnati's approach; after bringing in Gruden, they signed Andre Roberts and then brought in DeSean Jackson later on, which will provide Robert Griffin III III with the best group of receivers he's had in his short career. To find out what we can expect from Griffin III and Co. under Gruden's leadership, let us break down those three seasons with the Bengals:

With that being said, Gruden's offensive tendencies will not directly transpose to his new team. The make up of his current roster includes a more mobile quarterback and also the components for a more efficient power run game. Game flow will also play a major role in the play calling. When Washington made the playoffs in 2011, they totaled 442 pass attempts. Whereas they were forced to play from behind in a majority of their games last season and totaled 611 pass attempts. The team should be expected to be more competitive than last season and while Gruden may be classified as "pass-happy," the splits should ultimately remain consistent with Washington's 2012-2013 averages.

Griffin III's efficiency has trumped Dalton's as not only a runner (6.48 yards per carry compared to 3.14), but also as a passer (62.7 completion percentage and 7.55 yards-per-attempt for Griffin III). Health permitting, which has developed into a concern with Griffin III, he should easily surpass his career highs in passing yards (3211) and passing touchdowns (20) while nearing the efficiency of his rookie year when he had a completion rate of 65.6% and an 8.14 YPA. There is little doubt that the third-year passer, who ranked seventh among quarterbacks in total fantasy points as a rookie, will produce as as high-end QB1 while on the field.

Although A.J. Green has averaged 165 targets over the past two seasons and Pierre Garcon notched 174 last season, Garcon will simply not merit the same market share any longer - this is due in one part to him not being an elite receiver and one part the improved receiving corps around him. The three-year WR1 averages of 147 targets and 87 receptions are a much more likely result for Garcon, who should see a notable improvement on his 11.9 YPC from 2013 while facing easier coverages. He can be viewed as a WR2 in fantasy, but value may be tough to come by due to last season's production.

 

Jackson instantly becomes Washington's biggest receiving threat and his effect on the offense will extend beyond his own. The mercurial receiver still holds fantasy value, albeit a drop-off from his value in Philadelphia, where he set career highs last season in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1332), while tieing his career high in receiving touchdowns (9). Jackson's career sixteen-game average of 65.7 receptions, which lies close to a split between last season's total and the WR2 averages above, is a realistic projection for the upcoming season. Using Jackson's career YPC and touchdown rate, 66 receptions would translate to 1133 receiving yards and 5.9 receiving touchdowns - production that would also place him in the fantasy WR2 conversation.

There is simply not enough room for every receiver to excel and Roberts, who signed on play opposite of Garcon, was pushed down the depth chart and finds himself undraftable in standard leagues. Jordan Reed, who developed into Griffin III's second option in the passing game last season, can also be expected to experience a drop-off now that he's been relegated to the team's third option in the passing game. The nine games in which Reed played last season would have translated to a 80-887-5.3 line over a full season and that has generated excitement, but it is tough to see him reeling in many more passes than Jermaine Gresham's career best of 64. While he may boast high-end TE1 talent, he currently grades as a low-end TE1 heading into the season.

Morris only carried the ball 274 times last season, which is right in line with the above RB1 average, and he has also proven to be ill-equiped as a receiver, averaging a meager ten receptions per season. Furthermore, his new Head Coach provided little optimism of Morris improving in that aspect, being qouted as saying he "hopes (Morris) can get 20-25 catches" and that the back does not have "natural hands." Ultimately, Morris would be a risk to draft as more than and RB2 in standard leagues and is better suited as an RB3 in PPR formats. Morris' durability - he has yet to miss a game in his career - limits Roy Helu's value as a handcuff and the touches Helu receives as the backup will not be enough to merit fantasy relevance.

Universally, the arrival of Jay Gruden, along with the infusion of more talent, should make for an improved Washington offense in 2014. However, only Robert Griffin III III should be expected to benefit from a fantasy football standpoint; the other playmakes may all be hard pressed to reach their fantasy production of the previous year, namely Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, and Alfred Morris.