The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 9

Photo: USA Today Sports

One thing you might have noticed while looking through the value probabilities in last week's piece is how the extremes differ between positions. For instance, the defense most likely to achieve value in cash games was Oakland at 84.6%, while the least likely was Denver at 41.7%. In short, even the least valuable defense was a mere 3-to-2 underdog to achieve value in cash games. Contrast these figures with the other positions, and you see that top defenses aren't prohibitively expensive in FantasyScore's salary cap games:

One way to summarize and interpret the information in this table is by comparing positions within each column, like so:

• In cash games, the lowest-likelihood defense is a far better bet than the lowest-likelihood quarterback, with lowest-likelihood players at the other three positions clustered at probabilities around half as likely as the lowest-likelihood quarterback.
• In cash games, the highest-likelihood defense remains the best bet between positions, but the gap isn't as large. Also, the highest-likelihood quarterback is now in the highest-likelihood RB/WR/TE cluster.
• In GPPs, the lowest-likelihood defense is now a far better bet than the lowest-likelihood player at all other positions, which cluster around 1.0%.
• In GPPs, the highest-likelihood defense remains the best bet between positions, but the gap isn't as large. In addition, the highest-likelihood quarterback is now the worst bet by far, falling well below the highest-likelihood RB/WR/TE cluster.

Putting this altogether, we can arrive at a few lineup construction strategies based solely on how FantasyScore's pricing and scoring systems lead to different value probabilities between positions. First and foremost, as even the least-likelihood defense is still a decent bet to achieve value in both types of games, don't worry too much about value, especially in cash games. Second, as even the least-likelihood quarterback still has around a 1-in-7 chance of achieving value in cash games, lean more towards value in GPPs. Finally, as the lowest-likelihood players at the other three positions face about 19-to-1 (or worse) odds, definitely try to maximize value, especially in GPPs.

OK, onto the value probabilities for Week 9, which you'll see largely mimic the overall positional trend shown above.

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Fitzpatrick, Rodgers, and Luck are repeats from last week, signifying that their salaries and matchups are similar in caliber. Unlike last week, however, I'd stay away from Fitpatrick given his thumb injury, while I wouldn't necessarily avoid Rodgers in cash games because he's poised for a bounce back and, as discussed above, 15.2% isn't a prohibitively low probability.

Among other quarterbacks in the table, Kirk Cousins is the clear value play in GPPs. Cousins is also an appealing option in cash games, but his counterpart in New England represents an opportunity to pay up at quarterback and still have a better-than-50-percent chance of him achieving value.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

This table continues the game script story told for quarterbacks: Washington is highly likely to be throwing the ball for most of the game. In the last table, that boosted Cousins' value. In this one, it benefits Thompson, their primary back in passing situations, and hurts Morris, their primary back in rushing situations. The only thing making Thompson somewhat risky as a value play is the non-zero chance that he reaggravates his back injury.

Among other high-likelihood running backs, C.J. Spiller's value in cash games comes from his projection increasing due to Khiry Robinson's season-ending injury, and FantasyScore not fully adjusting his salary to reflect it.

Based on the above, it makes the most sense to use Spiller in cash games and Thompson in GPPs, paring them with someone like Devonta Freeman in both types of games.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

(Note: At 0.1%, T.Y. Hilton is actually the worst GPP value, but I left him off the list because his projected points is a byproduct of his status as a game-time decision.)

Perhaps no other wide receiving corps has a larger FantasyScore salary gap between the best and the rest than that of the Titans. So with Kendall Wright ruled out for Week 9, "the rest" immediately become value plays. Among talent scouts I trust, the ship seems to have sailed on Hunter. Meanwhile, Green-Beckham hasn't shown anything to instill confidence. Therefore, I think Douglas is the best value option of the three, especially in GPPs. However, that's only a mild endorsement given the drama that transpired in Tennessee during their week of preparation for New Orleans.

On the other end of the spectrum, Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, and Odell Beckham Jr are wide receivers to avoid in all formats; Bryant because of his replacement-level quarterback and the other two because they're simply too expensive. You can use similarly priced players like Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, or Antonio Brown and enjoy a higher likelihood of your lineup achieving value.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

(Note: At 67.3% for cash games and 64.3% for GPPs, Garrett Celek is actually the second-best value at tight end this week, but I left him off the list because he was still in the league's concussion protocol on Friday, which doesn't bode well for his availability on Sunday.)

No mystery here. In both formats, Tye is the clear value pick this week, while Cameron, Clay, and Reed are the tight ends to avoid.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Once again, the defense playing San Francisco has among the highest likelihoods of achieving value. And now the 49ers are starting Blaine Gabbert! Similarly, the Saints are facing the aforementioned Titans offense missing Kendall Wright, and so they're another good value if that's the route you want to take. Of course, I advised same last week, and New Orleans rewarded us by giving up 49 points to the Giants.

If, as I discussed earlier, you don't mind paying up for a defense, just be sure to avoid Carolina. Every other defense has at least an even-money chance to achieve value in cash games and is at most a 3-to-2 underdog to achieve value in GPPs.

week 9 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

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