Defensive Team by Committee

For thirteen straight years, Footballguys has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, making it difficult to predict which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will excel. And, at least in theory, the teams available at the ends of your drafts should provide less rewards. So how do you get great production out of the position while saving your most important draft picks?

We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. By starting your defense based on matchups, your D/ST will generally face a weak offense, meaning your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

Last year, the top picks were the Colts and Titans, two teams that were not being drafted in standard leagues .  If you selected both units and then blindly used the projected combined schedules from my pre-season article to determine which team to start every week, you would have had the 5th best fantasy defense in 2015!  That includes, over 16 weeks, 52 sacks, 20 turnovers, 2 defensive scores, one shutout, and two other games allowing ten or fewer points.

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - 2 x (Interceptions thrown + Fumbles Lost).  While most leagues award significant points for sacks, we don't project offensive sacks allowed data. But don’t worry: we’ll keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC.  Here is how Footballguys projects the offenses:

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned each team the offensive rating of their opponent in each week. I also added three points to the offense's rating when they are at home and took away three points when the offense is on the road.  Bye weeks are valued at 500 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. And I included a Tom Brady adjustment, lowering the Patriots rating in the team's first four games but raising it the rest of the way. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team’s schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in Week 17.

2015 Defensive Team by Committee: Indianapolis and JACKSONVILLE

Right now, the Colts are being drafted as the 16th defense in standard leagues. And the Jaguars are going undrafted in nearly every league, but more on that in a minute.  As a result, this is a very "cheap" and easy combination to snag. You may think these defenses are cheap because they're not very good, but to that I offer you the following counterpoints:

• Over 16 weeks, you will get five games against rookie quarterbacks Marcus Mariota (3) and Jameis Winston (2).  Those are going to be very tasty matchups.

• You get two games each against the quarterback-challenged Texans, Bills, and Jets.  And you can start the Colts in both weeks where they face the Jaguars.  Last year, Indianapolis produced huge numbers on defense in both games against Jacksonville.  That's 13 games against teams with significant question marks on offense.

• The other three games are less tasty, but still not too bad: there are games against three inconsistent offenses in Carolina, Baltimore, and Miami.

With a whopping 13 games against offenses that rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL, this is an incredible combined schedule.  And you get to start the Colts for 9 of the 16 weeks, including each of the first four.  As a result, I recommend not drafting the Jaguars, but simply picking them up after two weeks.  That gives you some additional roster flexibility during the crucial early weeks of the year when you need it most.

• Week 1: Colts at Bills
• Week 2: Colts vs. Jets
• Week 3: Colts at Titans
• Week 4: Colts vs. Jaguars
• Week 5: Jaguars at Buccaneers
• Week 6: Jaguars vs. Texans
• Week 7: Jaguars vs. Bills
• Week 8: Colts at Panthers
• Week 9: Jaguars at Jets
• Week 10: Jaguars at Ravens
• Week 11: Jaguars vs. Titans
• Week 12: Colts vs. Buccaneers
• Week 13: Jaguars at Titans
• Week 14: Colts at Jaguars
• Week 15: Colts Texans
• Week 16: Colts at Dolphins

With Indianaopolis, the key here is that you are betting on Andrew Luck putting the Colts defense in advantageous situations.  That worked out well last year, and the Indianapolis offense should be even better in 2015.  That means the Colts should be playing with the lead often this year, which leads to sacks and interceptions for the defense.

For Jacksonville, you may be surprised to learn that the Jaguars ranked tied for 6th in the NFL in sacks last year.  Jacksonville aded Jared Odrick, Davon House, and Dan Skuta this offseason, and the defense looks to be building into being a legitimate force under Gus Bradley. With two games against the Titans, and games against the Bills, Texans, Bucs, and Jets, you can be confident starting Jacksonville in those weeks. 

WANT JUST ONE?

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. If that's your plan, it still pays to know the ability level of the offenses that each team will face. The Titans have the easiest schedule in the league, with the Lions having the toughest schedules (i.e., they face the best offense). The full list is presented below: Note that week 17 has been excluded in calculating these ratings.

As you might think, the AFC South teams populate the top of the list.  The one downside for the Texans: the team's home game against the Jaguars comes in week 17.  The Panthers are being selected as the 8th defense off the board, but given that schedule, Carolina is a team you probably want to avoid. The Jets and Dolphins both made some big splashes this offseason with Darrelle Revis and Ndamukong Suh, respectively, and are going around the same time as Carolina. Given the respective schedules, you're probably better off with an AFC East defense.

EVERY COMBINATION

Finally, here's a look at how every combination fares on a per-week  basis.  Remember, lower is better.