Pending suspensions and contract holdouts are the bane of all fantasy football players. We are often frozen on how to proceed until we achieve clarity on what will happen with a player.
Unfortunately, the process for many of these situations can take weeks if not months to be resolved. In trying to predict the outcome of situations, it’s best to take a look at the contracts and rules governing these situations and to also look at prior incidents to try and glean some sense of clarity and precedent.
Josh Gordon
One of the bigger questions in Fantasy Football this off-season has been what to do about last year’s top wide receiver, Josh Gordon. This is an especially brutal dilemma for dynasty owners who acquired this week-to-week difference maker most likely on the cheap before he emerged as a true number one receiver in just his second season.
When taking a closer look at the NFL policy towards substance abuse, initially there was some optimism for Gordon to escape a full year ban. Unfortunately, Gordon subsequently got citied for speeding and the police found with marijuana in the car and then he was arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol just a few weeks later. Somewhat fortunately, it was the passenger in Gordon’s car who had the marijuana on them and in his drunk driving arrest; he blew a reported 0.09, just a hair above the legal limit of 0.08. This means the drunk driving charge will probably get knocked down to a reckless driving charge.
Technically neither incident should affect the Commissioner’s ruling since these new infractions would fall under the conduct policy and not the substance abuse policy. But when you are pleading for mercy, neither incident is going to endear you to the Commissioner.
Unlike the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy, which provides the Commissioner with relative autonomy, the rules governing substance abuse are much more clearly defined. While there is no way to find out exactly what stage a player is in, due to Gordon’s prior use of drugs in college, he was probably essentially kicked into Stage 2 of the NFL’s drug program upon entering the league. After his codeine violation last year many speculating that he was already in Stage 3 when he failed his most recent test for alleged marijuana use.
Gordon and his team are set to meet with the league on August 1 to appeal his impending suspension and it was just announced that he hired attorney, Maurice Suh, to assist in the appeal. Suh previously helped Richard Sherman avoid suspension on a urine collection technicality. Something like that could certainly be in play here too. Receiver Greg Little also tweeted a few months back that Gordon’s current violation was due to a missed test. While a missed test is treated no differently than a failed test, perhaps there was some technicality with that as well. Then there could also be a little wiggle room for Gordon to argue for a lighter suspension because he was kicked into Stage 2 right off the bat and the rules are a little more murky when that happens. This was probably the reason he only received a two game ban last year instead of the mandated four.
On humanitarian grounds, he will also try to argue that a yearlong ban could be both life and career threating, since the team is not allowed to have any contact with him during the suspension. Justin Blackmon, who is currently serving an indefinite suspension for substance abuse, was just arrested again this past week. Instead of suspending him for a year with no contact with his team, Gordon’s team could plead that a shorter suspension with very strict requirements may be the better approach to get him the help he needs. Gordon did just finish up a two-week stint in rehab, which may help his case some. Then again, LaVon Brazill just got banned for the year for doing the same thing.
But the Commissioner seems to be impervious to the precedent of prior decisions. In the other high profile suspension case this off-season, the Commissioner let Ray Rice off with a mere slap on the wrist, giving him just a two game suspension after he was caught on video tape dragging his girlfriend out of a hotel elevator after he allegedly knocked her out cold.
It would be a shock if Gordon weren’t suspended for the year, but there is always a hope and without knowing all the facts, we simply don’t know what will happen. If he is cleared due to a technicality, he probably won’t get suspended for any games. If he is deemed to have failed the test, but was really be in Stage 2, then he is looking at missing only six games. If he is found guilty, there is always hope the Commish communtes his sentence to 8 games. If he is cleared, owners in dynasty leagues may want to trade him for an Alshon Jeffery or Keenan Allen while euphoria is running high. Because regardless of this outcome, Gordon will remain in Stage 3 for the rest of his career.
Justin Blackmon
Speaking of Justin Blackmon, as mentioned above he was arrested yet again for drug use this past week. For anyone in Fantasy holding on to him still, it’s time to let him go. He will be out at least another year, if not for much longer. While he has to take much of the blame for his own actions, this also shows the failure of the league’s substance abuse policy. The timing of this could give Gordon owners hope if the league recognizes that. I can’t imagine they will enjoy seeing yet another marquee and troubled player sent into exile.
Aldon Smith
The loss of Aldon Smith would be a huge blow to a strong San Francisco defensive unit and for those playing in IDP leagues.
Smith has a laundry list of incidents including: two DUI’s, an incident where he was stabbed at his house trying to break up a fight and subsequently charged with possessing illegal assault weapons and a peculiar high profile incident at the Los Angeles airport where he was detained for supposedly making a bomb threat.
This past week a judge sentenced Smith to 12 days in jail on both the gun and DUI charges. In lieu of jail time, he will get credit for one day served and serve the remaining 11 days by participating on a federal work crew for 11 consecutive Monday’s starting this week.
With all of these issues now settled in the courts, he is set to meet with the Commissioner in the next few weeks where he will undoubtedly face some sort of suspension. He most likely helped his cause by voluntarily missing five games last season to enter into a substance-abuse treatment center.
Fortunately for him, all of this falls under the leagues Conduct Policy. This Policy was put in place to protect the integrity of the game, or as the Commissioner puts it, to “protect the shield.” Essentially any conduct of anyone working for the NFL that undermines or puts at risk the integrity and reputation of the NFL can be punished under this.
Unlike the Substance Abuse rules, under this Policy the Commissioner essentially has cart blanche to dole out whatever suspension he wants. As we saw with Ray Rice, first time offenders rarely get lengthy suspensions. The gun charges are a bit worrisome, but Plaxico Burress was only suspended for 4 games after his gun went off in a New York City nightclub. Taking all of this into account, since Smith already voluntarily missed five games it would be surprising to see him suspended for more than 2 to 4 games.
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is currently holding out hope of being paid more money. He was the heart of the Seattle offense for the past few seasons and after the team won the Super Bowl last season, he watched Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas get paid big time. Lynch also watched Jamaal Charles’ successful short-lived holdout. But Charles was severely underpaid for essentially being the Chiefs only offensive playmaker last season. Charles was due a paltry $3.9 million this year, and he will now be getting an additional $5.1 million over the next two seasons in guaranteed money. Lynch on the other hand signed a four-year deal two years ago worth $30 million with $6 million upfront as a signing bonus.
Lynch is due $5 million this year, which already makes him one of the highest paid running backs in the league but only the fifth highest salary on the team. He also realizes his days in the NFL are numbered. In two years, when his contract is up, he will be at the dreaded age of 30, when many running backs seem to fall off the cliff. With a next season $9 million cap hit and running back salaries steadily on the decline, he knows this is his best chance to get paid.
Unfortunately for Lynch, this is not going to happen. Seattle General Manager John Schneider and Head Coach and Executive Vice President Pete Carroll have both come out publicly and stated as much. If Seattle wanted to pay him any sort of bonus, they would have done so already. Even though Lynch wouldn’t be as easily replaced as many people like to suggest, with talented youngsters Christine Michael, Robert Turbin and Spencer Ware behind him, Seattle seem to think they will be just fine. They probably also feel Lynch will eventually fold and report to camp as he really has no leverage.
Vincent Jackson had no leverage and held out for ten games back in 2010, but he knew he could make more money on the open market. With Lynch, it is highly doubtful he will make close to the money he is making this year ever again. And Lynch knows this.
Most insiders don’t see Lynch holding out for too long. ESPN’s John Clayton predicts it will last no more than five or six days and as Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported, the move also exposes Lynch to $30,000 per day in fines, along with partial forfeiture of his $6 million signing bonus. Additionally for every preseason game missed, he would be fined his to weekly base salary of $294,117.
So unless Lynch decides to retire, which he has hinted at in the past, not reporting to camp makes absolutely no financial sense, and he doesn’t call himself Money Lynch on Twitter for nothing. I expect he reports to camp relatively soon. What is a bit worrisome to Fantasy owners is that in the past we have seen training camp holdouts come up limp or expose themselves to injury once they do return. Even though Lynch usually keeps himself in pretty good shape, the longer the holdout, the greater the risk. Although, as long as he gets at least two weeks in, I wouldn’t worry to much for a veteran like him.