Each week, I’ll be touring the league’s top dark zone outlooks – plays from inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line – with DFS on my mind. I’m always looking for touchdowns (specifically multi-touchdown performances) to take down tournaments, so while the dark zone doesn’t outright decide my GPP lineups, it certainly informs them.
I use a simple but logical formula to project each player’s red zone outlook. I first develop a projection for the team’s overall dark zone snaps, both passing and rushing, by comparing their totals to those faced by their opponents over the last three weeks, then weighting it 60% in the offense’s favor. I then apply each player’s dark zone share to that projection, then apply that projected touch total to the player’s dark zone success rate. Ultimately, the process spits out an often conservative expectation for dark zone scores. And since these are the most common and predictable touchdowns, I come away with a strong expectation for each option’s ability to score touchdowns and tilt contests.
Here’s a rundown of who catches my eye for Week 4:
Passing Game Notables
Fitzgerald remains the 2016 gold standard in goal line attention. Of the Cardinals’ nine dark zone throws thus far, six have gone to the future Hall of Famer, and three have scored (both his numbers are league-leading). It’s worth noting that his opponents, the Rams, have allowed 4 of 10 dark zone passes into the end zone. This pairing seems all but assured of a Week 4 touchdown. Whether that TD probability is enough to stomach his costs is up to you and your goal. Just know that he carries considerable upside.
Thanks in large part to Fitzgerald’s exploits, Palmer looks like the week’s best bet for short TDs. He’s already hit four thus far, on a modest nine attempts, so it’s safe to assume that a game full of successful Cardinals drives would benefit him most.
Here’s a guy already seeing a healthy chunk of dark zone targets as his team’s No. 3, and who’s on the verge ofseeing even morework in the short term. There’s reportedly real concern over Eric Decker’s shoulder, so Enunwa could be the team’s clear No. 2 option everywhere. But the touchdownpotential in particularis off the charts. No team has thrown more from inside the 10 than the Jets, and Enunwa saw three looks from there last week. The matchup with Seattle is daunting, but Enunwa’s cost throughout DFS is too low for this kind of upside.\
Tied with Fitzgerald for the league lead in dark zone targets is Sanders, who’s establishing himself as the far preferred option to Demaryius Thomas near the end zone. Denver is moving into the dark zone at a fine rate (19 snaps through 3 games), so if this script follows expectations, Sanders will see a short touchdown opportunity or two.
No defense has been gashed more near the goal line than Atlanta’s, and Cam Newton is the week’s top value at quarterback. So why not stack these two in any GPP you can? Through three weeks – and including his Week 3 disappearing act – Benjamin has drawn two of Newton’s three dark zone targets, and we all know about his abilities at the catch point. He’s roughly just as likely to find the end zone as anyone this week.
Against all odds – opening the year as part of a four-man tight end rotation – Brate has ascended not only into the starting role, but occasionally into the offense’s No. 2 role. We saw plenty of offseason ink on Brate’s budding connection with Jameis Winston, and it seems to be panning out. The week after Austin Seferian-Jenkins was cut and blocking specialist Luke Stocker was hurt, Brate saw 88% of snaps and drew 10 targets. He also scored twice on his three targets from inside the 10. If we can project him to a solid floor – somewhere between 65-75 snaps and 5-10 targets a game – then this kind of TD upside is monumental, creating a particularly sexy ceiling. The Broncos haven’t been very generous in the dark zone, but there’s just so much value in Brate’s scoring potential at a cost that guarantees GPP value with a touchdown.
Crowder isn’t just Washington’s most targeted receiver thus far. He’s also the clear leader in dark zone targets, with four – as many as Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon combined. Crowder really breaks the red zone mold, at 5’8” and 174 pounds but with quickness the team likes to exploit on short slants near the goal line. He’s yet to score from there, but nor has any other Washington receiver, so there’s some serious positive regression coming. Consider that three of Crowder’s four dark zone looks have come from inside the 4-yard line. Crowder looks almost certain to find the end zone soon.
It really is mind-boggling as to how Cousins has already thrown 12 dark zone balls and not one has scored. Again, some progression toward the mean has to be in store. If and when the floodgates open, Cousins will post strong yet cheap DFS lines that reward the contrarian picks. Given his Sunday matchup with a poor Browns defense, this could be his week.
Thomas is earning Drew Brees’ attention all over the field, and Monday night, he was given a prominent dark zone role. The team likes Thomas’ ability to turn screens and slants into chunk plays, and it may now be a key part of their short-yardage gameplan. He was thrown to twice from the 8-yard line or closer – one scored, and the other ended at the 2. San Diego boasts the quick, talented cornerbacks to stick to those short routes, but this game should feature ample scoring opportunity. Thomas is a fair bet to find the end zone again.
Miller came alive in the Bears’ Week 3 blowout loss, catching 8 balls that included 2 short touchdowns. It would be foolish to expect a repeat performance, but you can roll the dice on it very cheaply as part of a GPP portfolio. It’s good to know, for what it’s worth, that the Lions have already allowed five of their opponents’ eight dark zone passes to score. Hoyer’s outlook isn’t great on its face, but considering his TD potential and the looming specter of garbage time, he could wind up dragged kicking and screaming to DFS value.
Running Game Notables
Melvin Gordon
He’s the week’s most likely to score, by a mile, on the collective backs of the Saints’ pitiful defense. Opponents have driven and driven on New Orleans, and as a result they’ve run for short touchdowns at the second-highest mark in football. It stands to reason, then, to expect the Chargers’ bell cow to score at least one. He’s tied for second in the league in dark zone runs and leads in TDs, and this game will play particularly fast.
On the same note, Gore could be set up to capitalize on a high-paced, high-opportunity matchup. The Colts like to throw in the red zone, but they’ll likely be there plenty Sunday, giving Gore a better-than-average chance of seeing a short carry or two. He faces little competition for those rushes, despite being vultured by Robert Turbin last week, and brings solid GPP appeal as owners flock to the two passing games.
Gordon has been busy, but the league’s leader in dark zone rushes is David Johnson (nine). Widely panned for his interior and short-yardage college film, Johnson has turned serious volume into confident weekly touchdown projections. Three of his nine attempts have come from the 4-yard line or closer, a byproduct of a powerful offense that attacks the red zone. He hasn’t been efficient (just two touchdowns from in close), but doesn’t need to be with this kind of volume. It helps that the Rams have allowed 33% of their opponents’ dark zone rushes to score.
Minus Tom Brady, Blount is the Patriots’ focal point, especially in short yardage. He’s taken all but one of their dark zone carries, and he’s found pay dirt on 60% of them (3 of 5). That touchdown total is equal to what the Bills have allowed thus far, and only five teams have given up more. New England’s offense seems undaunted without Brady, and they’re having no trouble giving Blount opportunities to score. This one looks too easy.
Filling in for Doug Martin in Week 3, Sims didn’t disappoint in terms of role; he took nearly 60% of rushes, including all three from inside the 10. He’s Martin, in every sense, when Martin is out, so his odds of hitting the end zone are strong regardless of game flow. And his matchup with Denver isn’t particularly daunting in terms of touchdown potential. Thus far, four of the five dark zone rushes they’ve faced have ended in TDs. Any trip the Buccaneers do manage to push inside the 10 carries a solid chance of providing Sims a scoring opportunity.
Pinning down the usage tendencies of these two is a maddening exercise. Coleman is widely considered the superior running talent, yet Freeman is the only one creating big plays on the ground. In the dark zone, however, where Freeman was extraordinarily busy and productive last year, Coleman has been the dominator. Of the team’s league-leading 14 dark zone rushes, Freeman has amassed 6 but failed to score, while Coleman has scored on 3 of his 5 (all came last week). I expect this to correct itself a bit in Freeman’s favor. He wins the volume battle, and he’s got far more of a track record of short-yardage success (a whole season, compared to one game). Atlanta’s iffy front seven will likely be tested multiple times near the goal line Sunday, and I’m tentatively expecting Freeman to be the main beneficiary.
For obvious reasons – a lack of any talent whatsoever anywhere else on offense – Hyde is the 49ers’ engine, and that holds true near the goal line. (Exactly how much, after all, would you ask Blaine Gabbert to throw a fade, or a strike through a tight window?) This offense is bad, bad, bad, but their high pace has already afforded Hyde seven dark zone rushes, tied with Gordon for second overall, and he’s scored on three. Matchup isn’t a huge concern, as the 49ers are always expected to trail but continue to provide opportunity on pace. But many DFSers will feel nauseous and uneasy about rostering a 49er, which should again keep Hyde’s ownership down. As a multi-touchdown threat who’ll be owned at less than 5%, Hyde brings strong GPP value.
Forte has already scored twice from close range, but it’s fair to expect that to dampen as the season wears on. He’s historically one of the worst goal line scorers of this era. Over his career, Forte has turned just 17.9% of his dark zone runs into touchdowns; for comparison’s sake, Cam Newton has scored 5 more touchdowns on less than half the attempts. Forte may be on pace to run for 16 TDs, but my money says he finishes under 9. His Week 4 date with Seattle makes me think the uphill battle is on.