Top Passing Matchups
Seattle at San Francisco.
Seattle finds itself in a winner-take-all matchup against San Francisco this week, as the winner of this game will be the number one seed in the NFC and get the coveted bye, while the loser will be the five seed and have to go on the road to either Carolina or Tampa Bay. The Seattle passing attack has been a team that has not always needed to throw the ball. The Seahawks' passing game continues to flow through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is coming off his second-worst game of the season, as he “only” had 72 receiving yards, which was just the second time that he failed to top 75 this year. Outside of Jaxson Smith-Njigba, however, the Seahawks have not been able to find consistent production out of a number two target. Both Cooper Kupp and tight end AJ Barner are the only players who have over 300 yards, but neither has topped 600 this season, with Kupp falling off the season halfway through the year. Kupp has not topped 50 yards in any of his last seven games, while Barner has not done it in his last six, although he has been within two yards in each of his last two games. The good news for Seattle is that Rashid Shaheed, who was a midseason acquisition, does look like he will play in this game after he has just one target in each of his last two games, as he left last week’s game early with a concussion. He gives the Seahawks an additional deep ball threat that they previously did not have to take some pressure off of Smith-Njigba.
Long gone are the days of a dominant 49ers pass defense. Missing virtually every key piece from 2023-2024, this unit has been scorched for 275+ yards in 6 of its last 12 games. (The damage was often far worse than that.) This is a completely rebuilt defense that, so far through 2025, just has not worked. Deommodore Lenoir was expected to step up into the number one role, but he’s shown that he’s better as a complimentary piece rather than the focal point, while Renardo Green on the other side has struggled mightily this season as the 2024 second-round pick was expected to build off of a strong rookie campaign, but as we see with a lot of strong rookie season he’s regressed back down to a struggling player.
LA Rams vs Arizona.
The big question for the Rams this week is how much they care about this game regarding playing their starters. They’ll know this heading into the game, as the Seahawks vs. the 49ers game is on Saturday. If San Francisco wins, the Rams will be locked into the six seed, while they could move up to the five seed if they win this game and the Seahawks win. This seems like a big enough deal that if the Seahawks do win, the Rams will be pulling full effort into winning this game, as it will mean facing either Tampa Bay or Carolina instead of having to go on the road to Philadelphia or Chicago in January. However, even if they’re motivated, the big question is the health of Davante Adams, who did not practice on Wednesday and was a limited participant on Thursday, so if he is able to go, that would greatly help their offense this week. The good news is that they designated Tyler Higbee to return from IR, and he is going to play this week at tight end, which is significant given the lack of production they have had from the tight end position all season. They may also get offensive tackle Alaric Jackson back, which is significant for this offensive line, as Jackson is a significant upgrade over D.J. Humphries, which is significant for this offensive line, as Jackson is a significant upgrade over D.J. Humphries who struggled badly last week. If there’s any additional motivation, it is Matthew Stafford’s last chance to prove an MVP case after falling behind to Drake Maye after Maye’s five-touchdown performance last week.
The Cardinals have been looking forward to their offseason for well over a month. They’ve lost eight straight and 13 of their last 14, with their defense being the primary issue. In their most recent eight-game losing streak, they’ve allowed 40+ points four times and 37 last week to Cincinnati. They’ve now allowed multi-touchdown passing games in six of their last seven, with only Baker Mayfield failing in a 20-17 victory for Tampa Bay. The only thing saving this defense from being even worse is that they also have one of the league’s worst run defenses. They’ve been forced to start two rookies in Willie Johnson and Denzel Burke due to injury, which has just compounded the issues of this defense.
Buffalo vs. the NY Jets.
Buffalo is saying all the right things, but this seems like a week where we may only see their starters for a small portion of the game. Especially Josh Allen, as he was not seen at Thursday’s practice with a foot injury. He’s extremely likely to play, as he’ll want to continue his game started streak, which is 8th in NFL history, but is this a one snap type outing, the big question. This is how it played out last year, as Allen handed the ball off to Cook, and then left the game the next play without attempting a single pass. If this is the case, Mitchell Trubisky will see a majority of the playing time, but last year, he even left halfway through the game. We should have some idea of how this game will go 24 hours in advance, as the Bills will need to call up Shane Buechele if they plan to +
It’s quite surprising to see a trade where a team trades a cornerback for two first-round picks, and somehow both defenses get worse, but here we are. The Jets side was always going to be obvious that their season was over when they traded both Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, but they’re running out players who just are not prepared to be NFL caliber talent. 2024 5th-round pick Qwan’tez Stiggers who did not play college football yet played in the Canadian Football League for one season has seen snaps in recent weeks and has been absolutely dreadful. At safety, undrafted rookie Dean Clark has been unable to consistently cover anyone, yet he, too, has been forced into a significant amount of snaps the last couple of weeks. Over the year, the Jets are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 330 yards and five touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence, 308 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Shough, and 256 and 5 touchdowns to Drake Maye. Whoever plays quarterback for the Bills should be in line for a massive day.
Houston vs Indianapolis.
C.J. Stroud has not been able to take a step forward in his third year as a Houston starter, as we’re seeing a lot of the same things that we saw in year 2, with him unable to capture some of that rookie magic in 2023. In 2023, he had 4,108 yards, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, but it dropped to 7.0 in 2024 and 7.2 in 2025. 7.2 yards per attempt is about league average, but when factoring in Stroud’s unwillingness to run the ball, it does leave some things to be desired from the quarterback. However, over the last five games, he has shown some signs of improvement during the Texans’ winning streak, as he’s thrown for at least 200 yards in four of those games, and is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, even as his completion percentage was particularly poor in the Kansas City and Los Angeles games during this stretch. He’s in a bit of a tricky spot at the receiver position, as while Nico Collins remains the team’s bonafide number one guy, he’s had to break in two rookie wide receivers from the same school which is somewhat unprecedented especially considering Xavier Hutchinson also went to Iowa State and was just two years older than Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel which could create some challenging leadership dynamics for Stroud who is already not the most vocal player. The biggest disappointment of this offense, however, has to be Christian Kirk, who has just 242 yards this season and is averaging just 4.8 yards per target, which is abysmal for a player whom the Texans hoped a lot more from when they traded for him this offseason.
The Colts' season has spiraled out of control, with an unfortunate end to Philip Rivers’ second stint in the NFL. They significantly overpaid for Sauce Gardner, hoping that he would solidify their pass defense, and it just hasn’t worked out so far. Since Week 12, when they acquired Gardner, they’ve allowed 240+ passing yards to every quarterback that they’ve faced, and are allowing 284 yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. Gardner has been ruled out for this game after dealing with a calf injury. This is a defense that has the bad combination of a lack of pass rush and shaky corners on the outside, as outside of Laiatu Latu, no player on the Colts has more than five sacks all season, and the team is without DeForest Buckner, who is their best interior pass rusher.
Bottom Passing Matchups
Washington at Philadelphia.
Even against one of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Commanders were ineffective at getting much going against Dallas last week with Josh Johnson at quarterback. Johnson threw for 198 yards on just 23 attempts, and it’s looking likely that Johnson will start once again this week. The issue for the Commanders has been a compounding one. They have not been able to get consistent production due to injuries, and now that the injury bug has transferred to the offensive line. The Commanders have already lost key players in Tyler Biadasz and Sam Cosmi to IR in the last two weeks, but it looks like they also will be without Laremy Tunsil, who Dan Quinn called a long shot to play. Without Tunsil, it’ll be difficult to block just about anyone that Philadelphia does end up playing this week, which will greatly impact any downfield production in this passing game.
After a bumpy start to 2025, the Eagles' secondary looks roughly as dominant as last year's championship crew. There likely isn't a better cornerback duo than Cooper DeJean-Quinyon Mitchell, and there's impressive depth all over the defense. Over the last 7 weeks, opposing No. 1 wideouts have averaged just 36.6 yards a game, with zero touchdowns. Commanders backup Josh Johnson will likely spend the finale handing the ball off relentlessly anyway. Philadelphia has not allowed a passing touchdown in each of its last three games, and in its first meeting, held Marcus Mariota and Josh Johnson to a combined 138 passing yards in Week 16.
NY Jets at Buffalo.
The Jets during the huddle this week might be talking about their vacation plans to Cabo instead of actually calling plays, as they seem completely checked out. They’ve lost their last four games by 20+, including two to Miami and New Orleans. The offense has scored more than 10 points just once in those four games, as Brady Cook looks completely incapable of being a long-term NFL quarterback. Barring some drastic change, Cook will once again get the start, and expectations should be low. In his four games, he has thrown seven interceptions to just one touchdown, and has failed to throw for over 200 yards in any of the four games as he’s averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt while providing no upside in the rushing attack.
The Bills have become a funnel defense where their pass defense has become elite, and their run defense leaves a lot to be desired. Despite their high-powered offense, they’ve faced the second-fewest pass attempts all season. Only one opponent all year has topped 275 yards: Joe Burrow and the Bengals in a Week 14 rally attempt. Jalen Hurts (just 4.1 yards per throw), Patrick Mahomes II (7.4), MVP frontrunner Drake Maye (6.7), and others have landed well below their averages in this matchup. The Bills have two elite pass rushers in Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, which greatly helps their corners. Both Tre’Davious White, Christian Benford, and slot corner Taron Johnson are experienced and have been with the team for multiple years. The Bills are allowing only 177 passing yards per game, which is the best in the NFL this season.
Indianapolis at Houston.
Indianapolis will be going back to Riley Leonard this week after the decision was made to move away from Philip Rivers, and he quickly announced his retirement for the second time. With nothing to play for after a disappointing season, the start of Leonard at least gives the team and fans something to tune into the season finale, as the Notre Dame product is a fan favorite for obvious reasons. However, as a thrower, in his first game, he left a lot to be desired. Against Jacksonville, he was 18-29 for just 149 yards (5.0 per attempt) with no touchdowns, but did throw an interception. It’s not completely fair to judge Leonard on that singular game, as it was one that he was thrust into due to the injury of Daniel Jones. Now, this week, he gets a full week of practice, and the offense will play its entire starting lineup. Expect a run-heavy scheme as they try to get Jonathan Taylor the rushing title after he has fallen behind James Cook in recent weeks.
Under DeMeco Ryans, Houston has continued to be a defense-first team, and this year is no different. Led by Derek Stingley, Houston is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, the second-fewest to quarterbacks, and they’re going to remain motivated in this game. Houston has not allowed one quarterback to top 250 yards this season, which was Josh Allen, who threw for 253. Only one quarterback has thrown for over two touchdowns, which was Jacoby Brissett, who was entirely in garbage time. Led by their elite pass rush, which has the fifth-most sacks on the season, as Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are both elite edge rushers. A big reason for the success of this team has been Jalen Pitre, who has emerged as an elite safety in his fourth season, as the former second-round pick struggled early in his career. Look for Houston to make this a miserable game for the Colts this week.
Arizona at LA Rams.
Arizona have continued to produce offensively albeit thanks in most part to garbage time almost every week. Jacoby Brissett has not been putting up the gaudy numbers he had earlier this season, but he still has multi-touchdown performances in nine of his last eleven games, and has been a volume workhorse for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. With no Marvin Harrison this week, look for Wilson to once again be a key factor as he’s been a completely different receiver every time Harrison steps off the field as indicated by his 89 yards and a touchdown performance last week. For McBride, there’s not much more to say other than he’s been by far the best tight end in football this season although he did disappoint in an ideal matchup against the Bengals.
Consistency is key for the Rams. When they’re at their peak, they’re as good as any defense in the NFL, but they have allowed three 300+ yard games, two of which were surprisingly to Mac Jones and the other to Trevor Lawrence. Despite facing the seventh-most pass attempts this season, they are allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The big issue for the Rams has been that a lot of the production they’ve allowed has come in garbage time, which could be another issue this week, but this is a defense that has been built as one of the most complete defenses in the NFL. The pass rush is extremely talented, to the point that they don’t need to blitz nearly as much as other teams, as they have 41 sacks on the year, primarily bringing four, as they blitz the third fewest in the NFL at just 18.9%. This allows them to greatly help their corners, which, if there is a flaw, it would be that Emmanuel Forbes has struggled on the outside this season. The Rams will get slot corner Darious Williams back this week after he missed Week 17, as he is one of the best slot corners in the NFL. Expect a difficult time for Trey McBride, who had just 58 yards in their first meeting in Week 15. The Rams have excellent coverage linebackers and safeties, and have been difficult against tight ends all year.
Washington at Philadelphia. After a bumpy start to 2025, the Eagles' secondary looks roughly as dominant as last year's championship crew. There likely isn't a better cornerback duo than Cooper DeJean-Quinyon Mitchell, and there's impressive depth all over the defense. Over the last 7 weeks, opposing No. 1 wideouts have averaged just 36.6 yards a game, with zero touchdowns. Commanders backup Josh Johnson will likely spend the finale handing the ball off relentlessly anyway.
NY Jets at Buffalo. This Bills defense is far from perfect, but it's shut down virtually all comers through the air. Only one opponent all year has topped 275 yards: Joe Burrow and the Bengals in a Week 14 rally attempt. Jalen Hurts (just 4.1 yards per throw), Patrick Mahomes II (7.4), MVP frontrunner Drake Maye (6.7), and others have landed well below their averages in this matchup. It's a clutch, veteran defense that should make the fantasy world pause, even before we get to the Brady Cook/Adonai Mitchell side of things.
Indianapolis at Houston. The collapse of the Colts' offense has been well-documented, but less ink has been spent on the smothering Houston defense. Armed with three elite cover men in Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre, they've relentlessly hounded receivers down the field all year. Last week, the Chargers' Quentin Johnston became just the fourth to tally 90+ yards against the Texans. The Colts boast receiving talent, but they'll face a devastating unit with a sixth-round rookie under center.
Wild Card
Arizona at LA Rams. The Rams' defense looks imposing at times, but wholly beatable at others. They've done fine recent work against Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young, and Teddy Bridgewater; less so against Sam Darnold (279 and 270 yards), Mac Jones (319), and Jared Goff (338). When the pass rush isn't reaching home, the up-and-down secondary struggles to hold coverage downfield. Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are unafraid to throw with volume - and new No. 1 receiver Michael Wilson posted 11 catches, 142 yards, and 2 touchdowns in this matchup last month.
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