Yes, #SFB7 has been dominating your Twitter feed. If you're involved, or merely following the action, you know it's Scott Fish Bowl 7 (SFB7) that we're all discussing. With 13 of us individual Footballguys participating, it was only a matter of time until we started talking SFB7 heavily at the e-watercooler. And the floodgates have opened; Scott Fish's never-boring format has us FBGs joining brains and poring over the wild scoring/lineup requirements, as well as the wonky ADPs that it creates. In the process, we've churned out a lot of interesting overall (non-SFB) discussion, and we wanted to pass as much of it as we can manage along to all of you.
As the draft opened, we fell into a free-flowing chat that was primarily centered around the nuts and bolts of SFB football: the quarterback and tight end positions. They're heavily boosted by Scott's unconventional format (superflex, with 2.5x the production scoring for TEs), so it throws all typical ADP and value data right into the river.
Early-Round Discussions: Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Everything In-Between
Justin Howe 5:09pm
So from the 7-hole, I've opened up Gordon / Kelce.
Phil Alexander 5:10pm
Nice start. I'm hoping Kelce will be there for me at the 2-3 turn but doubt it
N/M he just went 2.05
Dan Hindery 5:11pm
Kelce is a great 2nd round target in this format. He went 3.01 in mine. I almost took him at 2.11, but Russ Wilson fell and I wanted a running QB. They get a little boost with the points for rushing first downs
Dan Hindery 5:11pm
Kelce is a great 2nd round target in this format. He went 3.01 in mine. I almost took him at 2.11, but Russ Wilson fell and I wanted a running QB. They get a little boost with the points for rushing first downs
Justin Howe 5:11pm
Great point Dan, that's why I'm hoping for Wilson to fall in 3 more than Luck or Brees
Nm, Brees just went. Wilson will be soon to follow I'm sure
Not even sure someone like Mariota or Jameis will fall to me in 3. I may punt until 4 and 5.
Ryan Hester 5:14pm
Wow, I thought I was making a smart move taking Kelce at 1.12 (Gronk went 1.10), but it seems like I'm the idiot here.
I took Kelce-D.Murray at my turn.
Justin Howe 5:15pm
Not really, Ryan. Kelce is honestly just a nose behind Gronk, so as soon as he went, Kelce was sure to go right behind just on visual bias (seeing that TE breaks the seal).
Dan Hindery 5:15pm
Mariota fell to early 4th in mine (we were flying then hit a wall mid-4).
Daniel Simpkins 5:15pm
I'm really struggling with Tyrod vs. Rivers. The running first down bump is nice, but can he match Rivers in yardage and TDs? Hard to think so.
Dan Hindery 5:16pm
I have Tyrod in a group tied for 12th
Ryan Hester 5:17pm
Daniel I rarely consider 6pt vs. 4pt pass TDs because on a weekly basis, the delta is so minute and hardly impactful, but the scoring may give Rivers the nod there.
Dan Hindery 5:18pm
That's a tough one Daniel. my numbers like Tyrod and he was the 13th highest scoring player overall last year, but how much do you trust him?
Jason Wood 5:18pm
Fun so far, feel very fortunate to have Ajayi sitting there in the 3rd for me. I haven't taken a QB yet three rounds in, by design. Let's see what scraps are left at the 4/5 turn for me.
Ryan Hester 5:19pm
amazing how different these drafts are...Ajayi went 1.09 in mine
Daniel Simpkins 5:19pm
Ajayi was gone in mid first of mine, Jason.
Ari Ingel 5:19pm
Ryan, perhaps just how QBs finished, adding in 6 pts for TD and rushing 1st downs? Love to see how high Tyrod finishes.
Ajayi in the 3rd? oh man.
Justin Howe 5:20pm
That's nuts Ari
Justin Bonnema 5:20pm
Ajayi went 1.06 in mine.
Dan Hindery 5:21pm
Tyrod was QB11 last year in this format. Rivers was QB10. Bunch of guys packed in that 22-24 PPG range at QB last year.
Jason Wood 5:22pm
Winston/Rivers/Carr/Ryan remain on the board, I'm hoping one of them falls to me at 4.12
Justin Howe 5:23pm
That's why I might sit that tier out. Take a stab at that as a ceiling a round or two later. Hoping Dalton is sitting there a round after that QB run.
Jason Wood 5:23pm
If not, I'll go for an Eli/Dak/Stafford combo hopefully (two of the three)
Daniel Simpkins 5:24pm
Mine seems so QB crazy that I question what will be there at the 5/6 turn.
Dan Hindery 5:25pm
I just came on the clock at 4.11. DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, Rivers, and Stafford top guys left.
Was hoping for Marshawn or Mixon here, but both gone
Justin Howe 5:25pm
I go Stafford there. Who's the top RB left?
Dan Hindery 5:26pm
carlos hyde
Justin Howe 5:27pm
I say Stafford then
Ryan Hester 5:27pm
Stafford was QB5 in my draft - mid 2nd!
Daniel - Don't fall victim to a positional run if it means leaving the best player on the board. I have survived in this league with 3 guys I drafted after QB16 and been totally fine (in years where the rest the team wasn't decimated by injury).
You may also remember the many who doubted me last year in the staff league, when I skipped QB forever and just grabbed a QB-QB turn (I had 1st overall pick) really late. Do you guys who were in that league remember who won it? ;-)
Daniel Simpkins 5:27pm
Ryan, I may have a shot at Miller AND Marshawn here at the turn. Think I take that over taking Rivers or Tyrod? I do already have Wilson.
Ari Ingel 5:28pm
Daniel ... QB/RB sounds like the right move
Justin Bonnema 5:28pm
If it's any consolation, my team last year drafted Romo, Carr, Bradford and Paxton Lynch. I made a decent run in the playoffs.
Justin Howe 5:29pm
I say Rivers and Miller, Daniel
Wow.. Cam gone at 2.07. Luck, Wilson, Mariota still on the board.
Ryan Hester 5:33pm
Daniel, I would take 0 QBs there if I already had Wilson. Hell, I would probably take 0 QBs even if I DIDN'T have Wilson, so I may be the wrong guy to ask.
Ari Ingel 5:39pm
Ryan, Stafford & Cousins looking very good in this
Waiting at QB until 3/4 was certainly way to go
Ryan Hester 5:42pm
Ari just be careful not to use that as gospel. Taking stats from the past to project the future is certainly not the best way of prognosticating.
Justin Bonnema 5:45pm
Daniel I agree with Ryan. Not sure you need a second QB yet. But it's also going to be dry by the time it gets back to you.
Ari Ingel 5:45pm
No doubt ... but interesting to see guys like Stafford & Cousins who can be had late and should put up similar numbers this year, if not better sitting there into the 5th round per ADP.
Justin Bonnema 5:46pm
I mean, you can survive with one good QB and playing waivers in this league. It's difficult but can be done. Don't have to start 2 if you're strong elsewhere. (crazy talk, I know)
Ryan Hester 5:46pm
QB never gets as dry the other positions - even in 2QB leagues. Guys like Flacco, Hoyer, perhaps even DeShaun Watson will all provide useable weeks.
Justin Bonnema 5:47pm
Wentz, Goff. It can be done. (pray for me)
Devin Knotts 5:48pm
I took Brady/Brees 1/2 turn don't regret it
Justin Bonnema 5:51pm
Devin that could carry your season.
Ryan Hester 5:56pm
Keep us posted on the rest of your team and if your level of regret changes 😉
Dan Hindery 6:17pm
I strongly considered waiting a long time on qb2 and going with sometging like hoyer and Watson. But ended up grabbing Dalton in the 5th instead
Justin Bonnema 6:21pm
If Mariota falls to me at 3.12, I'm going to be thrilled. Otherwise, I might take my chances on waiting for a QB until 5/6, which is scary.
Dan Hindery 6:24pm
Having a little QB run in round 5 of mine. Stafford, Rivers, Dalton, Tyrod, Wentz so far.
Daniel Simpkins 6:26pm
This feels like an auction in terms of predictability of picks. There's almost zero.
Ryan Hester 7:09pm
4 spots until my 3.12/4.01 turn. 8 QBs are gone (no one has 2). I estimate around 12 going between my 3/4 and 4/5. Dare I wait until QB20 to get my 1st? Anyone think that estimate of 12 is good?
Daniel Simpkins 7:15pm
Ryan, I don't feel good about waiting in this format. It's a little different because in our league, people waited enough on QBs you could get away with still getting one. Doesn't seem to be happening here.
I settled on Rivers/Olsen at the turn. Something in my gut just told me Miller and Marshawn weren't the right choices for my team.
Ryan Hester 7:23pm
Daniel, That's a fair point. It's situation-dependent. Since we've both now referenced it, I went and looked at last year's FESL Belichick draft. I took Carr-Tyrod as QB16-QB17 at 4.12/5.1.
I'm obviously big on waiting at the QB position, but it's easier to do with a mid-round pick as a safety net during a big run. QB20 being my first QB is something I'm not super excited about. If I could be guaranteed Palmer and Flacco, I'd do it for sure and just take both at my next turn. But that's not how this works!
Devin Knotts 7:26pm
That's why you take Brees/Brady at 12.13 and don't have to worry about it :D
Ryan Hester 7:26pm
I think there are bigger worries heading your way though!
Devin Knotts 7:29pm
Could have gone Beckham/Julio at 12/13
My league was weird: two tight ends in the first 11 picks, 1 qb, 1 WR, and 7 RB
Ryan Hester 7:30pm
Mine had two TE in the first 12 (with me taking Kelce after Gronk went 10th). You also could've taken 1 QB and 1 WR. I feel like WR is the least valuable position here, but that might be a rash judgement.
Daniel Simpkins 7:32pm
Nope, Ryan, WR is fungible here IMHO. For reference, Hilton and Michael Thomas are still here at 4.02 in this league.
Devin Knotts 7:32pm
agreed that's why I passed up those two WR, although I may regret it as there maybe an even bigger premium on a guy like Evans if he does what he did last year
Ryan Hester 7:44pm
Daniel Simpkins 7:58pm
15 QBs already off the board at 4.02 in my division... there may not be a huge difference in 4-20, but if you don't get one or two before they are all gone, then what?
Dan Hindery 7:59pm
Crazy run on QBs at the 5-6 turn in mine. Flacco, Palmer, Bortles, Bradford, Alex Smith gone by 6.03
Daniel Simpkins 8:00pm
I'm hoping I've maybe contributed to a QB\TE run after my picks that will leave some value on the board for me later.
Ari Ingel 8:04pm
9 QBs gone through 3.06 ... I have a feeling there will be 13 gone by my pick at 3.12
Devin Knotts 8:10pm
7 gone through 2.08 in mine
Daniel Simpkins 8:16pm
Sounds like you are on pace for what's happening in my league, Devin. Ari, you aren't far behind either.
Ari Ingel 8:25pm
Only 6 WRs gone by the end of the 3rd round ... so much value on the board, it might be too hard for me to pass up a guy like TY or Michael Thomas at the 3/4
Daniel Simpkins 8:27pm
Ari, it was extremely hard, but I think you'll have guys with the same sort of upside like Watkins fall. That's what I'm banking on anyway.
Justin Howe 8:32pm
Yep.. I'll be stocking at WR from around 7-11 and playing high-ceiling most of the way. Figure Watkins, Manny, Davante, Snead, maybe Diggs should be around in 7, to kick things off.
Ari Ingel 8:39pm
It's not going to be pretty at RB. My draft is all RB, QB and 4 TEs gone. I'm looking at maybe Crowell or Lynch ... Crowell actually finished pretty well last year in this scoring system. Miller and Mixon gone. No Olson even.
Justin Howe 8:44pm
I'll likely be looking at a choice of Crowell v. Reed v. a Cousins type in Rd3
Ari Ingel 9:13pm
Marshawn even gone now ... looks like I will have Mariota, Cam, Stafford, or Carr available. If Crowell goes, I'm shifting to either Michael Thomas or Jimmy Graham as my other. Just don't see any value in the remaining RBs. In the end, should have probably gone with Murray and Freeman ... then had two solid QBs in the 3/4. Very unpredictable
James Brimacombe 12:33am
Drafting RBs is brutal this year (minus the top 3)
Justin Bonnema 12:33am
I wish I would have gone QB/QB at the turn with the hope that it sparks a QB run and pushes RBs down
Daniel Simpkins 12:34am
Agreed, James. Trying to decide between Dalvin Cook, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, or Mark Ingram at 5.12 or 6.01 is not going to be fun.
Justin Bonnema 12:34am
Powell not hanging around there?
Daniel Simpkins 12:35am
Oh, yeah, there is Powell, Justin, but I think the Jets stigma might drop him to where I can get him later. Don't like him enough to take him ahead of any of those guys I mentioned, either.
James Brimacombe 12:35am
I am ending up with lots of Dixon, Booker, Washington at the end of MFL10 and DRAFT bestballs
Daniel Simpkins 12:36am
Booker will certainly be one of my targets in this draft if the price is right, James.
James Brimacombe 12:37am
I usually love drafting rookies but don't have the stomach for it this year in redraft.
Justin Bonnema 12:37am
Looking at ADP, Powell is going to be league-swinger in SFB7
Daniel Simpkins 12:38am
Is the live ADP indicating where he'll go, Justin? Haven't looked.
Justin Bonnema 12:38am
Daniel I like him above all of the guys you mentioned but will let him fall to me if that's the situation.
James Brimacombe 12:38am
Paul Perkins is the one RB that I think can shift things this year. Everyone is focused on that passing attack. Low ADP for him
Daniel Simpkins 12:39am
Yep. That's why I'll look to take him at 7.12.
Justin Bonnema 12:40am
Perfect spot.
Phil Alexander 9:50am
I play this league sorta GPP style. Highest WR ceiling I see left on my board is Watkins
Daniel Simpkins 9:52am
Phil, I agree about highest ceiling. I think for my second RB, I could get away with Powell and Gore on the next turn. Think it's too dangerous to take two of those WRs?
Ryan Hester 9:53am
Daniel - Phil makes a good point. If you're going WR/WR here, you could pair Watkins with a higher floor guy like Crabtree, Sanders, or Landry (or even Robinson, though he seems like he could "bust" more than those others)
Daniel Simpkins 9:53am
Robinson and Watkins awful tempting, but this is my dynasty tendencies coming out.
Jason Wood 9:53am
I'd go Robinson, Daniel
Daniel Simpkins 9:54am
I think Robinson the real deal. If he "busts," it will be because of the situation. And honestly, this is go big or go home anyway, right?
Ryan Hester 10:45am
What are everyone's thoughts on Lacy? Is that job as much his as ADP of he, Prosise, and Rawls suggests? I am struggling to get on board.
Daniel Simpkins 10:46am
Ryan, that situation looks like a committee nightmare to me.
Phil Alexander 10:47am
I like Rawls much better at ADP. That backfield always had hot hand written all over it
Ryan Hester 10:47am
That's how I've been assessing it too, guys. Lacy seems like a horrible buy if that happens.
Justin Bonnema 10:59am
Went with Miller. Figure I can grab Kyle Rudolph and maybe Brate later.
Daniel Simpkins 11:04am
Good call on Brate, Justin. This talk that OJ Howard is gonna come in and immediately supplant him is silliness.
Phil Alexander 11:18am
Re: Rawls - I think people are forgetting how good he was in 2015 before getting hurt. If he's healthy (everything I've read says he is) it's tough taking that guy off the field. He proved he still had it in last year's Detroit playoff game (albeit against poor competition), and Lacy's recent injury history isn't much better than Rawls'. I see him as a screaming late round value. One of the better backup RBs to prioritize in the double digit rounds
Ryan Hester 12:27pm
Went with Palmer and Henry on the 5/6 turn. WRs will be chosen later, I suppose. So many decent-enough ones left that it was hard to go there.
Daniel Simpkins 12:30pm
Think that's the right move, Ryan. I'm still watching people take guys like Ertz and Tannehill at 6.10 and 6.11. Some of that WR and RB value is gonna drop to me at the 7.12/8.01.
Jason Wood 2:25pm
My picks at 6.12 and 7.01 are looming. It's down to the Bradford/A. Smith/Goff range of QBs...any reason I should risk passing on them until 8.12? Or is that insanity?
Phil Alexander 2:26pm
I'd take Smith there. Steady QB15-20 production most weeks from your QB2 plays pretty nicely in this league
Phil Alexander 2:31pm
I'm on the clock for 2 straight picks. Roster so far is David Johnson, Reed, Mixon. Need two out of Stafford, Dalton, Tyrod, Eli (I'd be starting the early-mid QB2 run). RBs I'm looking at are CJA, Perkins, Ty-Mont. TE is Eifert or Bennett, and WRs are Baldwin, Demaryius, and Watkins. I need at least one QB (leaning Stafford). Baldwin is hard to pass up here
Justin Howe 2:32pm
It's bold but I'd say Stafford and Eifert
Phil Alexander 2:32pm
Dear God, Reed and Eifert on the same team?
2:33pm
Terrifying I know but some of those weeks will be just monstrous
If not Eifert, just bite the bullet and go Staff-Dalton. Much safer
Daniel Simpkins 2:35pm
Reed and Eifert on the same team would be my equivalent of the 7th circle of hell.
Phil Alexander 2:36pm
Took Stafford. Now the hard part
Anyone have a strong take on Paul Perkins? Can't decide if he's a value trap
Ryan Hester 2:39pm
Not a good athlete but should have opportunity. Won't be 3rd down guy with Vereen in town. The real question is whether or not he'll get GL carries (and how many).
Justin Bonnema 2:40pm
I wonder how long Vereen will be a relevant factor in NY. Perkins can catch, no?
Justin Howe 2:40pm
Perkins is a fine receiver in his own right.
Phil Alexander 2:41pm
They're going to pass on base downs too. Jennings caught a decent number of passes IIRC when him and Vereen were both healthy
Ryan Hester 2:42pm
But Jennings had caught passes at other stops in the past to a certain extent, hadn't he? Do we know if Perkins has that in his game?
Justin Howe 2:42pm
Perk did catch 80 passes in 3 years at UCLA
Phil Alexander 2:42pm
I know Perkins wasn't targeted AT ALL after his playing time bumped late last year
Phil Alexander 2:43pm
tiny sample though
Justin Bonnema 2:44pm
80 passes in college suggests he's as good as Vereen, who has done squat as a pro.
Daniel Simpkins 2:46pm
I would like to get the general consensus in here about Perine. Think he beats out guys like Gore, Forte, etc.
Ryan Hester 2:52pm
RE: Perine - hard to have a ton of faith in a guy who likely won't catch passes and doesn't have a defined role. Then again, that's why his ADP is where it is, so if you think he's the guy on the first two downs, he might be a good buy.
Daniel Simpkins 2:53pm
Hate that McCaffrey went a few pics before my turn. He would have been a no-brainer for me.
Hunter Henry might be here at the 7/8 turn. That will be tempting.
Stay tuned as we work further, into the middle and late rounds, over the next couple of days.