Dynasty Trade Value: Tight End In-Depth

Photo: USA Today Sports

The following analysis of the Tight End position is the third installment of a four-part series taking an in-depth look at dynasty values at each position. We've already examined Running Back and Quarterback. The fourth and final position, Wide Receiver, will get in-depth treatment next week. 

The Top 25

The Dynasty Top 25 at Tight End fall into five tiers. Within the tiers, the players are ranked (and valued accordingly) but each player is close enough to the other members of his tier that valuatioin and ranking within the tier can largely be based upon personal preference due to how closely the players are ranked and valued.

Ideally, dynasty owners in a 12-team league will want to own at least two of the Top 25. While Running Back is often discussed as the position where depth is most crucial due to injuries, in recent years Tight end is actually the position that has seen the most serious injuries. With the need for depth, there is added value for the top TE2. The chances that your starting Tight End makes it through the year without missing any time are relatively low, so having a strong second option is crucial for teams looking to win their leagues. 

Tier 1

Gronkowski not only established himself as the clear #1 Dynasty Tight End, but also lapped the field in terms of value after making a strong return from injury in 2014. Gronkowski is as sure a thing as there is in fantasy football. When healthy and on the field, he is an impact player. The major question for Gronkowski (as with many of the top Tight Ends) is the ability to string healthy seasons together. The health risk is enough to drop Gronkowski below the elite dynasty options at other positions, but he still remains a top ten overall commodity in dynasty value. 

1. Rob Gronkowski (40.5)

Tier 2

The past year has seen a fairly dramatic decrease in Graham's value for three reasons. First, he has fallen victim to the same issues that has plagued alomst every other Tight End; he can't stay healthy. Second, he was traded from the pass-happy Saints offense to the run-first Seahawks offense which will likely lead to a decrease in targets. Third, Graham is approaching the age (turns 29-years old this season) where dynasty owners tend to start seriously discounting players. Due to these factors, Graham is no longer in the same tier as Gronkowski and barely ranks ahead of the younger Travis Kelce. Kelce looks like talented enough that he could finally be the guy to break the Gronkowski-Graham stranglehold atop the dynasty Tight End rankings. He broke out late in the 2014 season and at age 25, looks poised to continue his growth in 2015. He has the potential to become an elite dynasty player, but the Kansas City offense could hold him back.

2. Jimmy Graham (20.5)

3. Travis Kelce (18.5)

Tier 3

The third tier is extremely deep and contains a mix of established veterans and talented youngsters. Greg Olsen tops the list because he carries plenty of immediate value, especially with the injury to Kelvin Benjamin. It shouldn't be a surprise if Olsen ends up the 2nd highest scoring Tight End in 2014. He also recently signed an extension and should have a number of strong years left. Martellus Bennett is in a similar position as a productive veteran. Bennett is slighlty younger than Olsen, but with Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White (in 2016 and beyond), he is not likely to play quite as prominent a role as Olsen. Julius Thomas is another talented veteran option at the position. He has more health concerns than the Olsen and Bennett however and also must prove that he is not just a product of Peyton Manning.

Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert were the first two Tight Ends drafted in 2013 and were popular breakout picks heading into 2014. Eifert suffered an injury during Week 1 and Ertz was a slight disappointment (losing snaps to veteran Brent Celek due to Celek's superior blocking) that only showed flashes of his potential. The breakout may come a year later than expected for this duo as both should play major roles on their teams and have the physical talent to excel.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Eric Ebron were the top two Tight Ends in the 2014 draft and struggled through mediocre rookie seasons. However, that is generally how things go for rookie Tight Ends. Both still have big-time physical skills and plenty of upside going forward. Their combination of risk/reward places them near the bottom of the third tier. 

4. Greg Olsen (12.5)

5. Zach Ertz (11.5)

6. Martellus Bennett (10)

7. Tyler Eifert (9.5)

8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (8.5)

9. Julius Thomas (8.5)

10. Eric Ebron (7)

Tier 4

This trio of young veterans all have flashed talent at various points in their young careers, but have also shown they have a very hard time staying healthy. The trio project as potential TE1s in 2015 and are young enough to maintain TE1-level production for many years going forward. The position is also highly dependent upon having strong quarterback play and all three of these guys are paired with talented young passers. 

11. Dwayne Allen (6.5)

12. Kyle Rudolph (6.5)

13. Jordan Cameron (5)

Tier 5

The deep 5th tier contains a number of productive players in their thirties that may only have a few productive seasons left (Witten, Walker and Gates), youngsters with moderate upside (Williams, Walford, Rodgers, and Hill), and some younger veterans who could emerge as low-end TE1s if all the cards fall right (Clay, Green, Donnell and Reed). These players all have a role on dynasty rosters. It may be solid short-term production from a player like Jason Witten that a team needs. Or general roster depth provided by players like Donnell and Clay who could prove crucial should your TE1 go down with injury. Or young upside stashes at the bottom of your roster like Williams and Walford.

None of the players in this tier carry more than mid-2nd round rookie pick value, but all are worth rostering. These players are also solid trade targets if available for a late rookie pick or as a throw-in on a bigger deal. You can never have too much depth at Tight End and owning two or three of the Top 25 at the position is highly advisable

14. Jason Witten (4.5)

15. Maxx Williams (4)

16. Clive Walford (4)

17. Charles Clay (3.5)

18. Richard Rodgers (3.5)

19. Delanie Walker (3)

20. Larry Donnell (3)

21. Josh Hill (2.5)

22. Ladarius Green (2.5)

23. Coby Fleener (2.5)

24. Antonio Gates (2.5)

25. Jordan Reed (2)

The Top 50 

The Top 50 Tight Ends on the Dynasty Value Trade Chart are listed below. The 2015 Value column refers to each player's projected production in terms of PPG above replacement level. The Future Value column quantifies each player's projected value to dynasty owners in 2016 and beyond. The final column lists each player's overall dynasty trade value. The top 27 players on the list should be owned in essentially every 12-team dynasty league and have at least some minimal trade value. The players listed from 28 to 50 may or may not be worth rostering depending upon the depth of the league. As such, their trade value is minimal and most will be found on the waiver wire in more shallow leagues.

 Contact info

Please feel free to provide feedback or ask for dynasty trade advice on twitter (@hindery) or by email (hindery@footballguys.com). Thanks for reading.