Bink Inc.
Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal. I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups. With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week.
Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees ($7600)
Saints @ Chargers
Projected Team Total: 24.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.5 points (2.6x salary multiple)
Through the first three weeks of the 2016 season, Brees is averaging 354 yards passing and 2.6 touchdowns (8 total touchdowns) per game. Despite the ease at which Brees is moving the ball, the Saints are still 0-3 and their defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons last Monday told the whole story. His performance on Monday marked the 98th time Brees has thrown for 300+ yards in a game, which happens to be the NFL record. Unfortunately for Brees, it was also the 34th time he threw for 300+ yards in a loss, and that is also an NFL record. While it is tough to watch a guy at the top of his game have to suffer shootout loss after shootout loss, I don’t hear any of his fantasy owners complaining. With the Saints defense making Swiss-cheese look impenetrable, Brees and the offense are getting the ball back with such frequency that he has a very real chance at breaking Peyton Manning’s single season passing yardage record (5,477 yards, 342.3 per game). This week he gets a Chargers defense that is allowing 322 passing yards per game, to go along with five touchdowns and four interceptions through three games. We all know he’s not happy about the 0-3 start, so when you add in the fact that Brees most likely still feels some type of way about how his run in San Diego ended, he has all the motivation in the world to go hang 40 points on the Chargers. San Diego is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks (26), 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers (23.5) and sixth most fantasy points to tight ends (11.4), making a Saints stack with Brees/Brandin Cooks and/or Willie Snead, Michael Thomas and Colby Fleener a very attractive option. When you factor in how advantageous the matchup is for the Chargers offensive players as well, you have the makings of a perfect game stack. The game total for the Chargers vs Saints (53.5 points) is three points clear of the next highest matchup (Carolina @ Atlanta), and eight points higher than the average projected game total in week 4. He makes for the perfect anchor in your GPP lineups, there is no need to overthink him this week.
Philip Rivers ($6,900)
Saints @ Chargers
Projected Team Total: 28.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.2 points (3.1x salary multiple)
Well it didn’t take long to get to the other side of that matchup, huh? I said that Brees makes for the perfect anchor in your GPP lineups, but truth be told, Rivers is actually the superior PP$ option on paper. Rivers doesn’t have the same type of ceiling that Brees does, which is something that needs to be considered when forming your lineup construction strategy for GPP’s. With that said, the Saints defense has not made any strides from last year’s historically bad season, and Rivers is the type of quarterback who can sit in the pocket and light you up if you give him time to throw. Never mind the fact that he’s lost his top wide receiver, hall of fame tight end and number one backfield option in the passing game, he is still putting up big games and making fantasy starters out of the likes of Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and Hunter Henry. Rivers is averaging 264 yards passing per game, with five passing touchdowns and no interceptions, and he will keep a clean sheet through this matchup as the Saints have yet to intercept a pass on defense. New Orleans is allowing 32 points per game to their opponents thus far, and it may seem like a miracle that they have only let up three passing touchdowns, that is until you realize opposing running backs have already scored six touchdowns on them this year. The potential ceiling for a Saints stack (as mentioned above) is very high this week, but when you consider the rarely used strategy of stacking running back/quarterback in this particular matchup, cornering the touchdown market against the Saints could very well give you four touchdowns on the low side. That point is reflected in their projected team total of 28.75 points, the highest of any team this week. For that reason, the optimal strategy is to stack Philip Rivers/Melvin Gordon. If you want to add in a conventional Rivers stack alongside Travis Benjamin or Tyrell Williams, the numbers are on your side and both players are projected to hit at least minimum GPP value. Either way, it is very difficult to go wrong when you load up on players going against New Orleans, and I would expect another high scoring shootout that yields a ton of fantasy points in both directions.
Joe Flacco ($5,900)
Raiders @ Ravens
Projected Team Total: 24.75
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.7 points (3.2x salary multiple)
Even with Rivers and Brees going against each other in an ideal high scoring matchup, Joe Flacco is the quarterback with the highest projected salary multiple (3.2x). Flacco and company get a very advantageous passing matchup this week when they host a 2-1 Raiders team that is coming off an impressive win against Tennessee on the road. Marcus Mariota threw for 214 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions, and yet the Raiders are still allowing the most net-passing yards to opponents with an average of 340 passing yards allowed per game. That statistic is a function of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan hanging 819 passing yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in the first two weeks. While Flacco doesn’t realistically have that type of upside, he doesn’t need to because he is sitting pretty at $5900, a very soft price for a quarterback who has shown he is capable of putting up 300 yard passing games consistently. Flacco is averaging 258 yards passing with three touchdowns and four interceptions, which is even worse than it looks when you factor in the Ravens first three opponents in the Bills, the Browns and the Ravens. Flacco is still working out the kinks of the offense, and that is to be expected when there is so much turn over at the skill positions between last season and this season. He has dangerous weapons in Steve Smith Sr. and Mike Wallace, and while they may be getting a little long in the tooth, Wallace has shown he is still capable of taking the top off the defense and Smith is a route running technician. Tight end Dennis Pitta looks completely healthy and has been a bright spot on offense, something the Ravens desperately needed with their running game looking out of sorts the first three weeks. The Raiders are giving up 26.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (3rd most in NFL), and 32.5 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (Most in NFL), so when you consider the fact that Flacco, Wallace, Smith and Pitta are all giving you salary relief, they become the closest thing to must-plays this week among players in the middle tier. The stack that makes the most sense is Flacco/Wallace though, as the Raiders have already given up 16 passing plays of 20+ yards and five passing plays of 40+ yards, which includes a 98 yard touchdown to Brandin Cooks in week 1. The Raiders have an explosive offense, so this is a game that should go over the projected total of 46.5 points. There are quite a few options at quarterback this week, but you will be hard pressed to find a better combination of matchup and price than Flacco offers this week.
Kirk Cousins ($6,500)
Browns @ Redskins
Projected Team Total: 26.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.8 points (3x salary multiple)
If you are looking for a poster child to illustrate the difference between fantasy and reality, look no further than Kirk Cousins. Through three weeks, he has had players in his own locker room questioning his confidence, and every talking head from Washington to Lincoln has used his play through the first three games as evidence that he was not worth a long term contract. Ask Cousins fantasy owners though, and I don’t think you will hear much complaining as he is averaging 329 yards passing to go along with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s averaging 19.0 DraftKings points per game, and has gone over 300 yards passing in two of his three games. After engineering a comeback victory against the previously unbeaten Giants last week, Cousins has a lot of momentum heading into a home game against the lowly Browns. The Redskins have amassed a considerable amount of talent at the skill positions. Jordan Reed is a serious mismatch in the middle of the field, and his ability to bust open the seam draws consistent help from the safeties. That of course is dangerous because it then affords Desean Jackson one on one coverage on the outside, and the development of slot receiver Jamison Crowder has made it even more difficult on defenses trying to choose who to double cover. Cousins has seen his price drop every week since week 1, starting out at $7400, before dropping to $7000 and finally $6400 last week. His price has settled at $6500 this week, which is soft when you start to calculate Cousins established ceiling of 35+ points (on three occasions last season). Cousins is in a similar spot as Ryan Tannehill was last week, and he responded with a 311 yard, three touchdown day against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing the eighth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (23.1), and third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (31.8). Washington is projected to score 26.75 points, which is the third highest total of the week. Cousins is an elite option this week, and you can really have your choice of who you want to stack alongside him as Desean Jackson, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed have already seen 73 combined targets (24 average targets per game), and only Jackson has seen less than six targets in any one game (5 targets in week 2). Cousins will spread the ball around and should see a minimum of 300 yards passing with two touchdowns, but the upside to get to four passing touchdowns or perhaps three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown is definitely there. Our projections have Cousins as the #2 ranked PP$ quarterback.
Running Backs:
LeVeon Bell ($7,500)
Chiefs @ Steelers
Projected Team Total: 25.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 22.2 points (2.9x salary multiple)
After looking like the juggernaut offense that everyone expected them to be in week 1, the Steelers have suffered back to back losses at the hands of division rival Cincinnati, and in-state rival Philadelphia. They couldn’t have picked a better time to get back the centerpiece of their offense, with Leveon Bell returning from his three game suspension this week against Kansas City. You could make the case that Antonio Brown is what really makes the Steelers offense go, and I wouldn’t debate that much, but all you have to do is look at the Steelers record with and without Bell to know just how much he means to the team. Bell and David Johnson are the last of the three down running backs, and both are arguably just as good catching the football as they are running it. Much like Arizona, when the Steelers are able to spread their offense out and split Bell outside, they become borderline impossible to stop because you cannot focus the needed attention on Bell or Brown without the other one killing you. Ben Roethlisberger is as savvy veteran with a high football IQ, and having played with the Killer B’s for three years now, he understands how to make defenses pay when they try to focus too much attention on one or both. Markus Wheaton’s 200 yard explosion last year against Seattle is a perfect example. In six games last season, Bell averaged 115 total yards and four receptions to go along with three total touchdowns. With Martavis Bryant suspended for the entire year, the Steelers will need to lean on Bell much more this year than they had in year’s past, which is saying something because he averaged 22.8 touches in 2015, and 23.3 touches in 2014. In his first game back from suspension last year, the Steelers didn’t waste any time getting him involved, calling his number 19 times in the run game, and targeting him seven times (7/70) in the passing game. The matchup against the Chiefs is a good one, as they are giving up a little over 120 yards rushing per game and allowing opposing running backs to total 20.7 fantasy points per game through the first three weeks. The expectation is that Bell will be highly owned right from the jump, as some are predicting anywhere from 18% to 30% ownership. Despite the oversaturation, Bell is one of the few running backs you can count on for 17+ points per game, and his price is not overly expensive, especially considering his fresh legs. You can differentiate your lineups in other areas, as fading Bell in a very important game for the Steelers would be a big mistake.
Melvin Gordon ($6,300)
Saints @ Chargers
Projected Team Total: 28.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.2 points (3.2x salary multiple)
What a difference a year makes. Melvin Gordon has gone from looking completely lost at the NFL level last year, to a must start at $6300 this week against the Saints. The season ending injury to Danny Woodhead paved the way for Gordon to see the lion’s share of the touches in the Chargers backfield, but one look at how he is playing and you realize it would have been hard for the San Diego staff to keep him locked up. He’s scored 17.7, 24 and 17.8 DraftKings points, respectively, through the first three weeks but his consistency in the red zone has impressed me the most. Gordon was a touchdown machine in college at Wisconsin, but we have seen plenty of running backs who struggle to translate that skillset to the NFL, especially ones that come from that program. He’s scored at least a touchdown in every game this year, and he’s picked up the slack in the passing game as well, which is the one area that separates the best from the rest when it comes to elite fantasy running backs. This week Gordon gets a dream matchup against a New Orleans defense that has surrendered three touchdown games, twice already to opposing running backs. Last week, the Atlanta Falcons rushed for 217 yards on 31 carries to go along with three touchdowns (7 yards per carry) and looked completely overmatched in the red zone. The Chargers have the highest projected total of any team this week (28.75) and that should benefit Gordon as much anyone outside of Philip Rivers. As I referenced above, stacking Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon is an easy way to guarantee your team four touchdowns from the most important spots on your team, and you don’t even have to overpay to do so.
Christine Michael ($6,000)
Seahawks @ Jets
Projected Team Total: 21 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.7 points (2.6x salary multiple)
I’ve been admittedly late to the party on Christine Michael, as I had a hard time separating fact and fiction when it came to whether or not his talent was really at the level that those who championed his cause, said it was. After watching him closely the last two weeks, it is clear that talent was never a question with him. He famously flamed out of Seattle because he couldn’t handle being a professional, but to his credit he has gotten his head on straight and by all accounts has become a good teammate just as much as he’s become a good player. His status in the Seahawks backfield took a big hit when he fumbled on the final drive as Seattle was driving down the field to tie the game against the Rams in week 2. He bounced back in a big way last week against the 49ers though, rushing 20 times for 106 yards while scoring a pair of first quarter touchdowns. He showed a really impressive blend of speed and power, moving the pile on inside runs, but also bouncing several runs outside, including one that went for 41 yards. This week Michael will have his biggest test to date, as the Seahawks travel across the country to take on the Jets in an early game on East Coast time. The Jets are only giving up on average 71.7 yards to opposing running backs, which is good for third best in the league. On top of the tough matchup, quarterback Russell Wilson is dealing with a sprained knee that has severely limited his movement and thus limiting what the defense has to do to shut him down. Michael will likely see heavy front coverage on the Jets defensive line, and he will have to create offense for the Seahawks with Thomas Rawls still on the shelf due to injuries. There are better options out there in terms of price and matchup, but given the dedication to the run and Wilson’s injury, the Seahawks will have to lean on Michael big time in a game that should be very physical from the jump. I expect his ownership percentage to be very low this week, which creates opportunity for a guy who should see 20+ carries.
Isaiah Crowell ($4400)
Browns @ Redskins
Projected Team Total: 19.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 12.2 points (2.7x salary multiple)
For a team that has struggled with injuries to their top two quarterbacks, number one draft pick and the suspension to their best player, Crowell has been a bright spot on a team that is searching for an identity under new coach Hue Jackson. The Browns got a big boost from wide receiver turned Swiss Army Knife Terrell Pryor last week, who ran routes at wide receiver, and then would also come under center and take snaps out of the wildcat formation. With the Miami defense forced to play off the line of scrimmage, Crowell made them pay by consistently gaining yards and finishing off runs by dragging defenders with him as he fought for every extra yard. He finished the game with 79 yards rushing on 15 carries, good for 5.3 yards per carry. It was his third straight game averaging over five yards per carry, as he rushed 18 times for 133 yards and a touchdown in week 2 (7.4 ypc) and 12 times for 62 yards and a touchdown in week 1 (5.2 ypc). This week Crowell has another great opportunity to continue his dominating play with a very generous matchup against a Redskins defensive line that has not been able to slow down opposing running backs. Last week they allowed the Giants to rush for 120 yards on 21 carries to go along with two touchdown. The two rushing touchdowns moved their season total all the way up to seven scores on the year, which as you can guess, is good for worst in the league. The Redskins are allowing opposing running backs to rush for 123 yards per game (8th worst in the NFL), and they average 28.1 fantasy points per game, which is the second worst total across the league. Crowell has a lot of confidence after putting up three very good games consecutively, and the Browns coaching staff have shown a willingness to give him the rock more and more as the game goes on. At $4400, Crowell’s price is extremely soft, especially for a guy who has carved out a piece of the offense for himself that you know you can count on from week to week. His lack of pass catching prowess limits his ceiling somewhat, but this week he has multi-touchdown upside and can really pay off for those who are willing to take on a little bit of risk. He is the perfect GPP play, and although there is some risk associated with how effectively Cleveland can move the ball through the air, Crowell has eliminated much of the doubt that I would have previously relating to him having a consistent role, week in and week out. Get him in your lineups, not only can he punish defenders and get stronger as the game goes on, he’s had at least one 20+ yard rush in each game he’s played this year, including an 85 yard touchdown rip against Baltimore in week 2.
Wide Receiver:
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400)
Titans @ Texans
Projected Team Total: 22.75
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.2 (2.1x salary multiple)
DeAndre Hopkins is generally a player that does not find his way into many of my lineups. He had a big breakout year in 2015, and was an absolute target monster, finishing with 111 receptions for 1521 yards and 11 touchdowns on a ridiculous 192 targets. The Texans invested in talent to place around Hopkins, drafting the speedy Will Fuller—who has paid immediate dividends with his ability to get behind the secondary—athletic freak, Braxton Miller, as well as signing their bell-cow back in Lamar Miller. While the talent was supposed to help keep the pressure off of Hopkins and prevent teams from taking him out of the game, it has also effected the number of looks he is getting. Hopkins averaged 12 targets per game last year, but through three games he is only seeing nine targets on average this season. This also has to do with the Texans signing Brock Osweiler, and it is only natural that it will take him some time to become familiar with the offense. That is all well and good, but for GPP purposes, I have very little patience for limited targets when Hopkins is still being priced as though he is an elite option at wide receiver. In his first three games, Hopkins has returned (1.8x), (3.1x) and (1.1x) multiples on his salary. Hopkins still has the talent to produce the big games that his owners become accustomed to last season, but he is far from a reliable source of points each week, and that is not even factoring his astronomical salary. Now, with that being said, the name of the game in GPP’s is “upside”, and to take it even one step further, it is about finding upside in a player that the public is not heavily invested in. Due to Hopkins inconsistency this season, as well as his high salary, his ownership percentages are starting to drop rather drastically, and with good reason. This is the week to put him back in your lineups though, as the Texans host division rival Tennessee. The Titans will likely have both Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty covering Hopkins throughout the game, and that my friends is a huge mismatch. Both cornerbacks are struggling this season, and they have had little success in the past slowing down Hopkins. The Titans tried a similar strategy last season, and Hopkins sliced them up to the tune of 15 receptions for 211 yards and two touchdowns in their two meetings. For his career, Hopkins has 40 receptions for 696 yards and five touchdowns in six games against the Titans. That is on average, 6.6 receptions for 116 yards and .83 touchdowns per game. Anytime you have to pay $8400 on a guy that is not seeing a heavy target volume, you are taking on quite a bit of risk, but in GPP’s it is worth taking this risk if you can be ahead of the curve when the risk pays off into a handsome reward. Given his vast success against the Titans throughout his career, this is the week where that risk is worth the reward.
Marvin Jones ($7,300)
Lions @ Bears
Projected Team Total: 25.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 17.4 points (2.3x salary multiple)
Jones has been the DFS darling of the year to start off his debut season with the Lions. He has improved his point total each week, starting off with 12.5 points in week 1, 22.8 points in week 2 before exploding with a six catch, 205 yard, two touchdown effort last week that was good for 41.5 points. Not to get too carried away, but Calvin Johnson had never started off a season as well as Jones has kicked off his 2016 season. Jones is a perfect fit in Jim Bob Cooters offense and it is clear by the quality of targets that are going his way, that Matthew Stafford trusts Jones to make plays in big situations. What has impressed me the most is the variety of routes he is running, as Jones was known more for making big plays down the field and in the red zone during his time with the Bengals. The Lions are moving him all over their formations and allowing him to run routes that cover all the depths of the passing game. He is still making big plays, evidenced by his 22.6 yards per catch average on 18 receptions this year (408 yards). The Detroit passing game as a whole have a neutral matchup this week with the Lions traveling to take on Chicago in a NFC Central grudge match. The Chicago secondary has been solid, if unspectacular this season, allowing 214 passing yards per game, which is good for 10th best across the league. The Bears are giving up 22.7 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers though, and Jones finds himself in an advantageous matchup against Tracy Porter. Due to Kyle Fuller being put on Injured Reserve, Porter has been forced to cover the opposing team’s best receiver on the outside, and that is exactly where he will find himself this week. Porter covers 98% of his routes on the outside, and Jones has run 92% of his routes from the perimeter. Jones should be able to dominate this matchup against Porter, both physically in the short passing game, as well as down the field where Porter will have difficulty covering him stride for stride. It will be interesting to see just how high Jones’ salary rises this year, but for now, he is still a bargain at $7300 in an offense that likes to push the ball down the field. It also helps to have a quarterback like Matthew Stafford who has elite arm strength and is not afraid to put the ball in coverage and let his receiver make a play.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,700)
Broncos @ Bucs
Projected Team Total: 23 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.8 points (2.8x salary multiple)
With Trevor Siemian now running the show in Denver, the fantasy outlook of both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders were in serious jeopardy. They were tested last year while Peyton Manning was getting the last little bit out of his noodle arm and Brock Osweiler was trying to figure out how to read opposing defenses. Now, after three weeks it looks like Siemian is the best thing that could have happened to the Denver Duet. As Siemian gets more comfortable with each passing week, Thomas’s stats have started to come around. He caught four passes for 48 yards in week one (8.8 points), made a big play down the field for 44 yards in week two en-route to five receptions for 90 yards, and then broke out in week three opposite Siemian, catching six passes for 100 yards in a touchdown (24 points). The upside to Thomas getting off to a slow start in the first two weeks was his salary started to normalize to a position where it reflected the number of targets he was seeing each week. Thomas’s price was down to $6400 the last two weeks before rising to $6700 this week, but there is still plenty of meat left on the bone for him to produce at a clip that rewards owners with 4x+ multiple on his salary. This week the Broncos travel to Tampa Bay to take on a Bucs secondary that has allowed on average 272 yards passing per week. The Bucs have given up seven passing touchdowns (to only one interception) in three games, and is allowing opposing quarterbacks to put up 23.4 fantasy points per game, as well as 31.8 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (2nd worst in the league). With the way the Broncos defense is playing, you can expect the offense to have very good field position throughout the game, which should give Siemian the opportunity to rack up another multiple touchdown game. Thomas is the type of receiver who can do his damage in a variety of ways, whether it is producing yards after the catch on wide receiver screens, or making plays down the field where he uses his size/speed combination to get behind the defense and make plays in the air. The Broncos offense is very well rounded with talent at all the major skill positions, but it is Thomas who represents their biggest mismatch, and they will need to depend on him if they want to take the pressure off their defense. This will be a very good litmus test for Siemian, Thomas and the rest of the Denver offense, as they are in a very advantageous matchup going against a team that has allowed on average, 33.6 points per game. That average includes 37 points to the Rams last week, an offense that had struggled to score points in their first two games and doesn’t have nearly the talent at receiver that the Broncos have. At $6700, Thomas is priced very softly, and if he has proven anything in the past, it is that he is capable of putting up GPP winning performances. Since the start of the 2014 season, Thomas has eight games with multiple touchdowns, including two different games with three touchdowns and an established ceiling of 40+ points.
Tight End
Jordan Reed ($6,300)
Browns @ Redskins
Projected Team Total: 26.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 14.2 (2.2x salary multiple)
Reed is coming off a breakout season in 2015 that saw him finish with 87 receptions for 952 yard and 11 touchdowns. He became the centerpiece of the Redskins offense, and for the first time in his career he was able to stay healthy for all 16 games. With Reed, it was never about his talent, he just struggled with concussions and various ailments that always seemed to creep up on him right when he was in the middle of a nice stretch of games. The Redskins wisely locked him up to a big contract this off-season and Reed has the ability to make life easier on Kirk Cousins, not to mention opening up the field for Desean Jackson, Jamison Crowder and eventually Josh Doctson. The Redskins offense didn’t pick up where they left last season, as they struggled in the first two weeks to get any momentum on offense. Those struggles were firmly put on the shoulders of Cousins, as he was missing play after play that he made the year before, and Reed’s stats suffered in the process. Last week may have marked a turning point for Cousins and Co. though, as they mounted a second half comeback against the Giants and started to produce the type of big plays that they had become accustomed to last season. Reed has increased his receptions in every game this season, catching four, five and seven passes, respectively. This week the Redskins get a home game against a defense that is among the worst in the NFL with respect to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. This is the type of game that Reed dominated last year, and despite his salary not falling much after a slow start, he still has the upside to match his price tag of $6300. There are several very affordable options at tight end that can give you a 3x-4x return on their salary, but outside of Greg Olsen, there is no other tight end that can match the ceiling of Jordan Reed. He has an established ceiling of 35+ points, and recorded four multiple touchdown games in 2015. The tight end position has either been a gold-mine or a land-mine this year, so there is something to be said for a tight end who can produce 15+ points consistently. Thus far, Greg Olsen has been that guy, but Reed is knocking on the door step and this is the week where I expect him to break out and become a difference maker in GPP’s. With the point disparity between the #1 tight end and everyone else, a 25+ point game from Reed would go a long way in providing an edge in big GPP’s. That is why you pay up for Olsen and Reed (and Gronkowski when healthy), so from a game theory perspective, gaining 15+ positional points on 90% of the field is about as good as you can ask for from any position.