Welcome back to The Daily Grind, the place where I will be discussing all the happenings in Daily Fantasy Sports on a weekly basis. The Daily Grind will be my voice to help you through the constantly changing DFS landscape as I highlight important news, free articles, resources, potential overlay situations, great contests to play and more every week. The emphasis here will be first to cover the four sites that we partnered with this year (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces and FantasyScore), but I will still discuss major news and contests beyond those sites when applicable.
DFS SETTINGS FOR GEOLOCATION
Over the past few weeks, many DFS sites have been strengthening their software to identify where DFS players are both from and also where they are logging in from in order to make sure that the sites comply with each state’s set of DFS laws. DraftKings recently modified their Geolocation policy, which led me to a predicament where I could not log on to the site. Once I read their policy and figured out how to adjust my settings on Chrome, I decided to write up how to fix this issue and I added it to the DraftKings DFS blog so that others can also solve the problem. You can read more about it over there, but I did want to point this out to readers of The Daily Grind.
The takeaway here is that we should not be upset by any momentary inconveniences, as DFS sites are trying their best to comply with current (and ever-changing) laws. We all hope that DFS will be legalized everywhere soon so that this will not be an issue, but I realize that as long as site like DraftKings and others are trying to check players’ locations and asking where people are, lawmakers will have to take note that they are trying to comply with the complex state laws and making efforts to meet the present legal climate. That should count for something. In the meantime, DFS players will have to figure out how to manage browser settings, location and documentation requests and travel plans.
DFS LESSON OF THE WEEK – RECENCY BIAS
This week here at The Daily Grind I wanted to touch on another topic – recency bias. First, a quick definition, straight out of our DFS Glossary:
Recency bias: The phenomenon of higher or lower ownership that follows after a given player has performed dramatically well or poorly in recent weeks.
As usual, the best way to explain a topic like this is with an example. Last week, both DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones were touted as great plays, yet these elite receivers failed to deliver their usual good numbers. Instead, seldom considered wideouts like Doug Baldwin and Markus Wheaton had career days. So what does recency bias lead to when we look at the following set of games (i.e. this coming weekend)? The average DFS player is going to use Baldwin and Wheaton more than he (or she) should, while Jones and Hopkins will be under-owned. Consider recency bias as the “what have you done for me lately” mentality when it comes to setting up DFS lineups.
The best way to combat this is to remember a few things. First, elite players are elite for a reason, but they are not infallible. No player is. So, trust your methods and do not be afraid to go back to the well on an underpriced, undervalued and potentially under-owned elite player for the coming week. Secondly, do not chase last week’s points. Regular fantasy football players know this when it comes to waiver wire pickups. Last week’s hero could be next week’s zero. I like to have a list of elite players and just see who is under-owned and underpriced each week without even considering what happened last week. Each week is completely new – which is the beauty and fun of DFS.
DFS DURING THE HOLIDAY SEASON
Thanksgiving in the U.S. is the start of the holiday season, and now that it is in full swing as the calendar has flipped to December (remember wall calendars? You actually did flip the page, but I digress) so now here we are in the holiday season. This is usually a rough time for folks like me where I already have a lot on my plate when it comes to getting everything done each week. Now I have even more on the list for the holidays – shopping, holiday shows with the kids, plans for Christmas and New Year’s – and the traffic on top of all of that. It all adds up to a long “to do” list each day, and I know that I am not alone. Millions of Americans face this challenge with the holidays, work and family obligations during this time. So what does that have to do with DFS? Good question.
During the holiday season, everyone feels strapped for time. Time is a precious and undervalued commodity, especially in December. We cannot possibly do everything we hope to do each day with so much to get done before 2016 arrives. That means secondary tasks often fall by the wayside, as our discretionary time disappears. Part of that discretionary time for DFS players is spent on doing DFS research, so that means with the holiday season comes less time to prepare a good lineup. That means many players will take shortcuts, and factors like recency bias will play a part in saving time. If you are short on time this holiday season, consider a podcast like The Audible or the Footballguys’ Rotogrinders show to get yourself up to speed as you drive to the next store, but also remember that practically everyone is running low on time to do DFS research as well, just like you. Use the Footballguys’ tools and do not fall in the trap of recency bias, or, even better, think of how to use everyone’s lack of time to do research (and therefore favoring recency bias more) to build better lineups against those tendencies. Who knows – those elite, lower-owned players might just build that Christmas fund for next year.
FOOTBALLGUYS AND DFS COVERAGE FOR 2015
You know the deal by now - Footballguys has a ton of DFS coverage this year. Whether it is our two e-books that cover FanDuel (“Cracking FanDuel”) and DraftKings (“Cracking DraftKings”), or the 50+ articles a week we produce to cover all four major sites each week – we have it all covered. All this articles are linked in our Daily Crusher App that continues to be one of he best ways that DFS players can create lineups for cash games and tournaments and also get deep analysis on their rosters, likelihood of winning and exposure to various players. Once you start using this, it will be hard to imagine how you ever lived without it. I'm still learning all the different ways to use this great tool both by experimenting with it and with the help of our Daily Crusher Manual and I can already see its immense value to me as both a cash game and GPP player.
There's a ton more coverage we have this season for DFS, too much to outline in The Daily Grind, but we have a large section dedicated to each of our sponsor sites listed below.
DraftKings Coverage for Week 13
FantasyAces Coverage for Week 13
FantasyScore Coverage for Week 13
Let's also not forget about the Footballguys' blogs for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Watch for new content every day over there.
We even added new video content for 2015. In a partnership with Rotogrinders, you can now see both John Lee and Austin Lee with Dan Back on The Footballguys Rotogrinders Hour. It is a great show with lots of insight. Check it out!
Of course, if you are a bigger fan of The Audible, we have both FanDuel and DraftKings shows for DFS coverage for each site as well. Be sure to subscribe to these weekly podcasts to get your weekends rolling for the NFL DFS slate.
BIG CONTESTS FOR WEEK 13
FANDUEL
Fanduel continues the fun in Week 13 with some of the largest volume of contests around. Start off with this week's $2 Million Contest where someone will win a half-million bucks for just a $25 entry all the way down to the NFL Sunday Rush, wherr a $5 entry to this contest can win you $100,000 for first place. What a value that one is. Let's also not forget about the biggest one of them all, the $12M Fantasy Football World Championship that was announced early this season. Find a qualifier you like and take a shot and winning millions of dollars. Time is running out to qualify, so take your shot now. FanDuel doesn't make it hard to play, just hard to decide which contests to target and try and take down.
DRAFTKINGS
DraftKings is once again offering their usual slate of great GPP contests. Such is the case this week with the $4M Millionaire Maker for Sunday. First place walks away with $1M dollars, not a bad payday at all. DraftKings still has the biggest contest around with their $15 Million contest announcement from a few weeks back, and qualifiers are still in play for as low as $3 an entry. Hmmm, $3 for a shot at $5 Million. I’m in, and I think everyone should take a shot at this big prize.
As far as the rest of the contests for this week, there are plenty of tournaments at DraftKings to sink your teeth into, even after the Millionaire Maker. At a price point of just $3, the $1M Play-Action tournament is certainly appealing, and this week they kept the $9 tournament at big money levels as the NFL Slant contest offers $375K in prizes and you can win as much as $25,000. There' are also several giant 50/50 contests in the lobby as well, including a $25 entry with 19,000 winners about to get $50 Tuesday morning. Lots of contests and lots of money to be had this week, so get those lineups ready.
FANTASYACES
You have to check out what FantasyAces is offering this season. Not only are they going bigger and better for the NFL, but they are also going for a Live Final for College Football!
First, FantasyAces announced the $500,000 NFL Live Final for 2015, which will be in Newport Beach, CA on December 13th. The live final will have 40 entrants competing for a $100,000 grand prize. Qualifiers will run all season long up until the live event, including satellites to get into qualifiers at a discount. This is the last week to get in, so head over to FantasyAces and give it a shot!
FantasyAces also has an interesting format called SalaryPro, where you get bonus points for staying furhter and further under the salary cap. More and more are trying out this unique format, so be sure to check out the lobby over at FantasyAces for contests that use this rule.
FANTASYSCORE
FantasyScore is offering up a GPP with a twist this year. If you can finish in the Top 3 in their Fantasy Football Championship Satellite, you can grab an elusive golden ticket for an entry towards the Week 16 championship game where $25,000 will be awarded. Another way to get a ticket is to go after the $20 entry satellite that is giving away four tickets. Check out all of these contests and more at our FantasyScore page.
Footballguys has you covered here - both in major DFS announcements and the tools you need to build winning lineups.
Thanks as always for reading The Daily Grind, and good luck this week.