The other day I presented an article on how to rate and rank the handcuff options across the league. With the help of that method, I will walk through all of the 16 NFC Teams here, and recommend a few running back situations and names to target for your upcoming fantasy drafts this season.
As a reminder, here is the scoring system:
Backup RB ranking = Tailback Feature Score (1-5 points) + RB Involvement (1-5) + ADP (1-5) + Skill (1-5)
Here we go, with the teams ranked in order of Total Score:
Philadelphia Eagles
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 5
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 18
Philadelphia is a very run-heavy and fast-paced offense. LeSean McCoy, the feature tailback for the Eagles, will be one of the first players to go in every draft (or auction) this year, and for good reason. Chip Kelly loves to run the ball and McCoy is the key component for that offense. While many think that Darren Sproles is the handcuff for McCoy, that is incorrect – the real target should be Chris Polk, who is going very, very late in drafts (ADP of 267) if at all – which adds to the value here. Polk has not had much opportunity in his short (two season) career, but the opportunity to be the lead back in a high octane offense moves him to at or near the top of the wish list.
Green Bay Packers
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 5
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 17
Eddie Lacy is a feature tailback, and the Packers want to use him as much as possible again this year. Should he lose any significant time, James Starks is his direct backup and his ADP is very cheap (217, or roughly Round 18-19). Starks had five games last season with 50 or more combined yards, including a big game against Washington (20-132-1 rushing, 5-36 receiving) when Lacy left the game early. Starks should be another name at or near the top of your wish list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 16
At first glance, Tampa Bay looks like a committee rushing team – but that is not the case. Doug Martin started the year as a feature tailback, and after he was lost for the year, several backs filled that void – but all were used in a feature back-type role. Whether it was Mike James or Bobby Rainey, both of them had starts with over 20 touches for Tampa Bay. This season a rookie, Charles Sims, is the likely back to be right behind Martin on the depth chart. Sims comes cheap right now (ADP of 173, Round 15) and while the Buccaneers may want to throw a little more this season with Josh McCown at quarterback, a feature back role is needed in that offense. I like Sims as a solid sleeper with upside if something bad happens to Martin again this year.
Minnesota Vikings
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 5
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 16
For four years, the recipe was simple: If you draft Adrian Peterson, you had better lock up Toby Gerhart as his handcuff. Well, Gerhart is now in Jacksonville, so the backfield backup spot is wide open. Rookie Jerick McKinnon may have the inside track over veteran Matt Asiata on the roster, and McKinnon will come cheap with an ADP well over 200 (230, Round 19). If McKinnon looks the part as a solid backup to Peterson, the value will be there if McKinnon is asked to start at some point in 2014.
Seattle Seahawks
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 15
There is no question that Seattle loves to run the ball, and that Marshawn Lynch is their feature back. What is in question is the long term plans for running backs for the Seahawks. Lynch is 28 and in a contract year, and Seattle has shown no interest in giving him a big contract. That means they will be looking at both Christine Michael (ADP 107) and possibly Robert Turbin (ADP 278) at some point this year to see if one or both of them can fill the void if the team chooses to let Lynch walk. That’s pretty likely as the team will have salary cap decisions to make, and spending big money on older running backs does not make sense. I like Michael the most, but not at the price of a ninth-round selection. Turbin is a solid sleeper if he gets any crack at the lineup.
San Francisco 49ers
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 5
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 14
The 49ers are another team that loves to run the ball. Frank Gore is going to have the wheels come off one of these years, and the 31-year old running back cannot last forever. San Francisco has already said that they want to scale his workload back a little bit for 2014, but the backups are still a little bit muddled. Rookie Carlos Hyde (Ohio State, ADP 127) is the likely candidate to be given the first crack at any feature back-type role if Gore was lost for an extended period, but his high draft pick price has pushed a lot of the value out of him. Kendall Hunter (ADP 202) or Marcus Lattimore (ADP 209) might represent better value, but I would wait to target either one of these backs until we get into the preseason and get better views of both of them.
Carolina Panthers
Feature Tailback Score: 3
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 15
The Panthers are one of those tricky teams here, especially this season. For the past several years, they have been all about running the ball and playing defense first, but now with the worst stable of wide receivers in quite a while (and that is saying something for Carolina), defenses may really look to stuff the run against the Panthers. Lead back DeAngelo Williams is regarded to be one of the weaker lead backs in the league right now, and his understudy Jonathan Stewart used to split time with Williams on a more regular basis and also vulture touchdowns . Now QB Cam Newton gets more of the goal line work, as does fullback Mike Tolbert, so the value for Stewart (ADP of 147) is really not there even if he shows that he is back to full health. I might consider Tolbert (ADP 206) if Stewart looks gimpy again, but only as a late round flier pick.
Washington Redskins
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 13
Washington wants to run their offense not through the running back position but through the quarterback under Jay Gruden this year, which de-emphasizes Alfred Morris and any of his potential backups (or injury replacements). Veteran Roy Helu is the most likely backup that would step up and in should Morris be sidelined, and he has performed well as an injury replacement starter in the past. Helu (ADP 170) is a cheap flier to target late if he falls into Round 15 or later.
Chicago Bears
Feature Tailback Score: 5
Running Game Score: 2
ADP Score: 5
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 14
Chicago loves to throw the ball with Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and even Martellus Bennett – but do not forget about the running back catching the ball out of the backfield. Last year, Matt Forte had 75 catches, 592 yards and three touchdowns as a receiver alone. Rookie Ka’Deem Carey is directly behind Matt Forte, and he was regarded as the top RB pre-draft by several publications. Carey had big touchdown production while at Arizona (42 rushing TDs in the past two seasons). Carey is also great at pass blocking and has good hands, meaning that there are two roles he can immediately carve out for himself - 3rd down back and goal line option (which is what Michael Bush used to do). He had 62 catches and two scores as a receiver as well, so I can see PPR value here with Chicago loving to throw more often. Even if Forte stays healthy all season, I think Carey gets plenty of work and adds fantasy value. His ADP is 212 right now, or about Round 17, so I would love to get Carey that late in drafts this year.
St. Louis Rams
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 4
ADP Score: 3
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 14
The Rams relied heavily on Zac Stacy last year, but now they have drafted Tre Mason (Auburn) in Round 3 in May to either be the backup to Stacy, or to apply immediate pressure and push for the lead role. Mason’s ADP is climbing (133) so he could easily start going in Round 10 or higher as the preseason wears on in August. St. Louis does rely on rushing and defense to compete in the very tough NFC West, and I would think that both backs see work this year in a committee-like backfield. That plus the high ADP for Mason limits the value here.
Arizona Cardinals
Feature Tailback Score: 3
Running Game Score: 3
ADP Score: 5
Skill Score: 2
Total Score: 13
The Cardinals would like to have a balanced offense, and the current plan in Arizona is to ride Andre Ellington as a feature back as much as they can. Rashard Mendenhall is gone, leaving Ellington as the clear starter, but he has averaged under 10 touches a game last season and never had more than 17 touches at any point in his rookie year. That all screams value for a backup back for the Cardinals, right? Well, it would – if either option behind Ellington had any talent. Unfortunately, neither Jonathan Dwyer nor Stepfan Taylor has shown any signs of stepping up and performing when given the chance. Unless someone comes out of nowhere in Arizona this preseason and looks the part of a strong backup to Ellington, I would pass on all Cardinal backup tailbacks.
New York Giants
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 2
ADP Score: 3
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 12
The Giants run game looks to be something of a mess, unless you are completely convinced that it will be all about Rashad Jennings and everyone else after him will be afterthoughts. The Giants are looking to be more of a West Coast offense with three wide receivers on the field often, and using Jennings and possibly a returning David Wilson in the backfield. Wilson (ADP 142) offers some sleeper value, but it is tough to target him as early as Round 12 as his ADP suggests. The sleeper has here has to be rookie Andre Williams, a fourth round draft selection in May out of Boston College. Williams put up 2,177 yards rushing and 18 scores last season as a Heisman finalist, and if he gets a shot to move up the depth chart he becomes a great sleeper to target late with an ADP that puts him around Round 15 (ADP 172).
Dallas Cowboys
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 1
ADP Score: 4
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 12
Dallas is going to throw a ton this year, just like they did last season. DeMarco Murray is the clear feature back, but the backup situation is cloudy between Lance Dunbar (ADP 170) and Joseph Randle (ADP 222). The expectation is that Dunbar is a change of pace back and Randle is closer to the understudy for Murray, but odds are that the Cowboys would split the backfield work if Murray suffered a major injury. Unless you draft Murray, I would skip over the Cowboys backups (and if you take Murray, consider Randle over Dunbar).
Detroit Lions
Feature Tailback Score: 4
Running Game Score: 1
ADP Score: 1
Skill Score: 4
Total Score: 10
Detroit loves to throw with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but the entire offense tends to be more about passing than running, with inputs from tight ends and also running backs as receivers. Both Reggie Bush (ADP 34) and Joique Bell (ADP 56) are likely to split time and work, and their high draft values reflect that already. All the sleeper value is gone, so there’s little to look for unless you believe in the Theo Riddick hype from the offseason. Even if you target Riddick (ADP >270) late as a sleeper, odds are that he would need injuries to happen to both lead backs for Riddick to ascend to a fantasy starter status.
Atlanta Falcons
Feature Tailback Score: 3
Running Game Score: 1
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 9
Atlanta needs balance on offense, and they can get that if they can find a more viable backfield option than the rapidly aging Steven Jackson. Fourth round pick Devonta Freeman is just the right candidate, as he has three-down talent and I expect him to steal touches from Jackson early in the year. He could easily take over as the top tailback for Atlanta by November, which makes him a great value pick with that tremendous upside for the second half of the season. The problem now is that the hype is setting in, elevating his ADP (105). Even though I like Freeman, I cannot say that he is a value in Round 9. That said, I might still target him and just stash him on my bench until he pushes Steven Jackson out of his starter role.
New Orleans Saints
Feature Tailback Score: 2
Running Game Score: 1
ADP Score: 2
Skill Score: 3
Total Score: 8
New Orleans is a passing-first team with Drew Brees, and that is evident by their top back, Pierre Thomas, catching 77 balls last season. Thomas may see some more work with Darren Sproles gone to Philadelphia, but if Thomas sustains a major injury, a full-blown committee is expected. Khiry Robinson (ADP 111), Mark Ingram (ADP 159) and even Travaris Cadet (ADP >270) would split a backfield that would likely be minimized by Brees’ throwing for 300+ yards most weeks.
NFC Draft Targets (In order of priority):
- Chris Polk (Round 17 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have McCoy)
- James Starks (Round 17 or later)
- Charles Sims (Round 15 or later)
- KaDeem Carey (Round 16 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have Forte)
- Jerick McKinnon (Round 18 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have Peterson)
- Tre Mason (Round 12 or later)
- Andre Williams (Round 15 or later)
- Devonta Freeman (Round 10 or later – move him up a few spots on this list if you see him as the starter)
Combined AFC and NFC Draft Targets (In order of priority):
- Chris Polk (Round 17 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have McCoy)
- James Starks (Round 17 or later)
- LeGarrette Blount (Round 14 or later)
- Knile Davis (Round 15 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have Charles)
- Charles Sims (Round 15 or later)
- KaDeem Carey (Round 16 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have Forte)
- Jerick McKinnon (Round 18 or later – take him two rounds earlier if you have Peterson)
- Tre Mason (Round 12 or later)
- Bryce Brown (Round 19 or later)
- C.J. Anderson (Round 16 or later)
- Andre Brown (Round 15 or later)
- Chris Ivory (Round 12 or later)
- Devonta Freeman (Round 10 or later – move him up a few spots on this list if you see him as the starter)
- James White (Round 17 or later)
- Isaiah Crowell (Round 20 or later)
- Andre Williams (Round 15 or later)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.