Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Week 10 Comment: Just a few more weeks of byes and fantasy regular season. Get the players you want now with whatever money you have, and start getting a roster ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: You are running out of time for the fantasy football regular season, and to make moves. Bid now, get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 12 Comment: Getting close to the "last call" at the waiver wire bar. Spend now. Get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 13 Comment: This is the final week of byes (just two - Cleveland and Tennessee), and for many it is the end of the fantasy regular season. Check your rules for your league, as some leagues lock waivers after this week. Be sure to have enough depth on your roster in case someone gets hurt, even a kicker. Do not let that ruin your postseason.
Week 14 Comment: Byes are over and for most leagues, the fantasy playoffs are about to begin. Take a few gambles if you have depth, but be sure to have solid handcuffs and backups to players you are counting on for December. Only players that might start for you matter.
Week 15 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 15 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
Note - It is getting harder to find true starters, but I am assuming that the following players are owned. If not, go get them:
- A.J. Green, WR, Bengals ($400+ in case he comes back)
- Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears ($377 as his suspension just ended)
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($356)
Other players to consider this week:
- Kenneth Farrow, RB, Chargers ($283): Farrow had a huge role for the Chargers last week after Melvin Gordon went down early. Farrow produced on a large amount of touches (16-55 rushing, 6-23 receiving) against the Panthers, and he will be coveted either as Gordon’s understudy or the likely top back for the Chargers in Week 15 if Gordon is unable to suit up.
- Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots ($275): If he is still available, now you really need to pay up for Tom Brady’s new favorite target – at least while Rob Gronkowski is out. Mitchell only had five targets against Baltimore, but he was very productive (4-41-1) and nearly had two touchdowns. Brady had Mitchell as his primary read on several instances, and that is a great thing in fantasy.
- Marvin Jones, WR, Lions ($215): If Jones was cut earlier in the season, now is the time to pick him up. He is back for Detroit and in the lineup as their WR1B to Golden Tate’s WR1A. Trips to the Giants and Cowboys over the next two weeks are average and above average, respectively, but starting wideouts are always worth a pickup.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars ($177): Most people have stopped paying any attention to the Jaguars (or possibly just targeting players and defenses against Jacksonville), but Marqise Lee has become the top target for Blake Bortles this season. It could be Lee improving or it could be defenses focusing on Allen Robinson, but however it is happening, Lee is producing more than Robinson right now. Lee saw eight targets in Week 14 against Jacksonville, resulting in a 5-113 afternoon. If he has fallen through the cracks of your league, pick him up.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($171): Mathews is the only healthy back left in Philadelphia with Wendell Smallwood going onto IR and now Darren Sproles sidelined with a concussion. The matchup on Sunday (Baltimore) is not great, but starters are starters this time of year.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($170): If Dixon is somehow still out there (and I have been saying to get him for weeks), stop that now. Dixon outsnapped Terrance West and produced solid numbers against the Patriots on Monday Night Football (11-39 rushing, 8-42-1 receiving). Dixon looks fresher than any other back for the Ravens and he has some power behind those legs. He makes for a solid RB2/flex the rest of the way.
- Dwayne Washington, RB, Lions ($165): Theo Riddick could not go last Sunday, opening up the door for Washington to be the top option in the Detroit backfield. His numbers were not stellar (16-64 rushing, 1-10 receiving) but with a bigger role in a good offense, he makes for a reasonable pickup in December. Some will be thrown off by Zach Zenner’s usage in Week 14, but he now has a concussion, giving Washington even more value.
- Trevor Siemian, QB, Broncos ($157): Siemian was back in the saddle in Week 14 for Denver, and he put up some respectable numbers (32-51-334-1-0). Grabbing any starting quarterback with 300+ yard capability is certainly worthwhile, whenever you can. A matchup against New England, which will demand passing, certainly does not hurt either.
- Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns ($137): I know, I know. Cleveland? Yuck. Well, beggars cannot be choosers, and Crowell did get over 100 yards on just 10 carries against the Bengals on Sunday. Given the woes in the passing game, the Browns would be smart to lean on Crowell as much as they can.
- Robby Anderson, WR, Jets ($131): Anderson continues to be one of the few bright spots for the Jets, as he caught six passes for 99 yards and added 12 yards rushing against San Francisco on Sunday. The Jets get Miami and New England over the next two weeks, but Anderson should still see plenty of opportunity to produce in both contests.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($124): Inman is Mr. Reliable for Philip Rivers, as he is on the field practically every snap for the Chargers. Inman saw seven targets in Week 14 and reeled in all but one for 71 yards and a touchdown. This marks the seventh game in a row with 40+ yards receiving. He is far from sexy, but he is as solid a WR3 with upside as they come.
- Justin Forsett, RB, Broncos ($124): Forsett did not do much in his first game with Denver, but he had more chances than Devante Booker, and that’s a big statement considering that Forsett was a free agent a week before that game against Tennessee. Forsett could be in line for a bigger role with the Broncos as he settles into Denver.
- T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars ($121): Yeldon is pretty much the last man standing for the Jaguars once again, so if he is on the waiver wire, pick him up if you have room and have a need at running back. Starters are not easy to find in December, especially those who give you 90 total yards on 24 touches as he did last week against Minnesota.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins ($119): Stills had a productive Week 14 against the Cardinals, catching all but one of his seven targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. The downside here is that Ryan Tannehill is now out, so Matt Moore is now the Miami quarterback. Stills is a bit too up and down each week to count on for your lineups, but if you need upside, he provides it with the Jets and Bills up in Weeks 15 and 16.
- Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles ($115): Philadelphia keeps losing running backs and forcing Wentz to throw the ball, as Wentz’s 32-46-314-1-1 day against Washington represented fewer pass attempts than he had in Week 13 (60) against Cincinnati. Expect 45+ more throws from Wentz in Baltimore this week, with the Ravens strong against the run.
- Sam Bradford, QB, Vikings ($114): Minnesota is putting up respectable offensive showings, predominantly by throwing the ball this season. The Vikings have a strong matchup against the Colts in Week 15, which puts Bradford in the QB2 with upside conversation.
- Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings ($114): Even with Stefon Diggs back in action, Thielen is getting plenty of targets from Sam Bradford. Thielen racked up 101 yards on just four catches in Week 14 (on just five targets), producing at strong WR2 levels.
- Ronnie Hillman, RB, Chargers ($113): Hillman would have had a bigger role last week when Melvin Gordon went down with a hip injury, but San Diego chose to leave him on the inactive list. That will not be the case this week, and Hillman is more of a receiver than a rusher. Look for split touches for the Chargers if Gordon is out, with Hillman getting more third down and passing down work.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($112): I still do not trust the Minnesota ground game, but McKinnon is more of a receiver (6-38) than a rusher (14-31). Against the Colts and Raiders in the next two weeks, McKinnon might put up RB3/flex value in PPR leagues.
- Matt Barkley, QB, Bears ($111): Barkley has been posting decent numbers, and now he gets Alshon Jeffery back for a strong matchup against Green Bay. He is worth a spot start if you need a quarterback.
- Anquan Boldin, WR, Lions ($107): Boldin is one of the best wide receivers ever to play the game, which means he is savvy enough to get open but often cannot do much after the catch. Boldin had six targets in Week 14, converting those chances to a 3-49-1 afternoon. Boldin can offer flex/WR3 value if you are in a roster bind.
- Cameron Meredith, WR, Bears ($106): Meredith has had an on-again, off-again relationship with the waiver wire this year, and now he might be available again. Meredith had a strong Week 14 (6-72-1) on eight targets including a nice waist-high catch for a score against Detroit. With Alshon Jeffery coming back, Meredith is the top WR2 candidate for the Bears and should continue to see single coverage against Green Bay in Week 15.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($104): I still do not trust Minnesota and the ground game, but the Vikings seem to favor giving the ball to Asiata, especially down by the goal line. The Week 14 score against Jacksonville salvaged his paltry (11-37) rushing numbers.
- Matt Moore, QB, Dolphins ($101): Moore is a desperation pickup at this point, but he is the starter now with Ryan Tannehill out with a significant knee injury. Moore is a capable backup and gets favorable matchups (Jets, Bills) the next two weeks.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Rex Burkhead, RB, Bengals ($95): Burkhead is the clear understudy to Jeremy Hill, but against Cleveland in Week 15, both backs are in play.
- Trey Burton, TE, Eagles ($79, $91 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Eagles are lacking in wide receiver talent right now, forcing both Zach Ertz and Trey Burton to help out in the passing game. Burton collected seven passes for 65 yards against Washington in Week 14 and he should be a big part of the Week 15 game plan against Baltimore.
- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cardinals ($78, $88 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Arizona is taking advantage of the tight end positon more these days, led by Gresham. He had seven targets against Miami, converting five for 45 yards. He is in the TE2 with upside conversation this week with a matchup with the Saints.
- A.J. Derby, TE, Broncos ($77, $93 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Denver is struggling to run the ball, but they have Trevor Siemian back at quarterback and two strong targets outside at wide receiver. That leaves their newest tight end (acquired from New England at the trade deadline) as their third option and a virtual replacement for the run game. Derby caught all five of his targets for 57 yards against the Titans, and he has some revenge narrative coming this week against his former team in the Patriots on Sunday.
- Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys ($71): Teams are blanketing Dez Bryant and also trying to stop Cole Beasley, which leaves the other outside receiver as the forgotten man. That is Williams, who quietly had a solid Week 14 (5-76-1 on six targets), highlighted by a 31-yard touchdown where the Giants forgot all about him. He is mostly a gamble each week as his targets are very volatile.
- Jack Doyle, TE, Colts ($67, $83 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Doyle had more catches (5-55) and targets (six) than Dwayne Allen for Andrew Luck this week, but Doyle is more of a desperation pickup with unpredictable performances from week to week.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($65): Blue is now up to splitting time with Lamar Miller in Houston, rushing for 16-55 against Indianapolis on Sunday. Miller owners need to grab him in case Miller really gets hurt.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
