Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Another week down, another letdown. Things have to start turning around soon. I’m going to start fresh and just look at who really, REALLY needs a win this week. Some interesting spreads on the Las Vegas board too. Let’d dig in for Week 6:
Bye week teams: Tampa Bay, Minnesota
Teams returning from a bye: Kansas City, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Seattle
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) SAN DIEGO (+3.5) vs. DENVER
Thrusday night usually favors teams at home, plus taking San Diego this week gets you points since the Chargers are underdogs. Philip Rivers always plays the Broncos tough, and I completely get that the Broncos defense has been formidable this season, but San Diego is going to find cracks in that defense just from watching with Tevon Coleman and the Falcons did last week. Denver can win and should win, but the smart play here is to side with the home underdog. PICK: Chargers
BUFFALO (-7.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Buffalo is a massive favorite at home, as Las Vegas has the line anywhere from 7.5 to 9 points this week in favor of the Bills. It makes total sense to me, as San Francisco has to travel cross country for an early game (for them, 10AM) and the Bills are playing their lone home game for about a month. While some may call this a trap since the 49ers are not an AFC team, Rex Ryan knows that if they want to remain competitive in a tough AFC East, they have to win games like this. The Bills face Miami and New England the next two weeks – two divisional games – so moving to 4-2 is critical here to stay close to New England. Did I also mention that the 49ers are changing quarterbacks and in general are not very good? LeSean McCoy should have another big game as the Bills win by double-digits, 23-13. PICK: Bills
PHILADELPHIA (-2) at WASHINGTON
Okay, who had this game circled as a big NFC East clash before the season? The Eagles head to Washington coming off of their first loss, and it was a rough one as they dropped the game and the ball with a chance to beat Detroit on the road despite falling behind early. The one-point loss leaves a bad taste in their mouths, but they have to shake that off with a big divisional game up next. Washington stole a win in Baltimore last week thanks to a punt return touchdown and three field goals, which is hardly the sign of a juggernaut offense. The key for me here is that Philadelphia has four quality running backs and Washington is terrible against the run, giving up a league worst 5.1 yards per carry. As long as Philadelphia continues to keep the turnovers down to a minimum and play good defense, they should go in to D.C. and get the victory. Eagles 27, Washington 17. PICK: Eagles
TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. CLEVELAND
The Cleveland Browns have used six different players at quarterback this season, and they are “hoping” to have Cody Kessler under center this week. They also just cut Charlie Whitehurst and promoted Kevin Hogan from the practice squad. If you had to look him up, join the club. Tennessee will just run the ball with DeMarco Murray here and Marcus Mariota will pass effectively enough for the Titans to get a home win over the woefully bad Browns this week. PICK: Titans
BALTIMORE (+3) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Ravens just fired OC Marc Trestman and promoted QB coach Marty Mornhinweg, who should be able to remember that when your offense is running the ball well in the first half, you should continue to call run plays after halftime. The Giants continue to look inept on both sides of the ball, as Eli Manning has zero time in the pocket to find his three receivers who have no time to get more than 10 yards down the field before the pocket collapses around their quarterback on most plays. If the Ravens can hold on to interceptions rather than fumbling them back to the other team for touchbacks and also remember that Justin Tucker is a kicker, not a passer, then I see the Ravens getting a road win here, 27-13. PICK: Ravens
CAROLINA (-3) at NEW ORLEANS
This one is a tough call, because I find it difficult to not take the points with Drew Brees at home. The Saints are coming off of a bye week, while the Panthers are playing on just six days rest after a bad, bad loss to Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. The saving graces here for Carolina are that Cam Newton is probably playing this game, and the defense and run game were reasonably effective last week. Throw in that New Orleans has one of the leagues’ worst defenses against both the run and the pass and I can see Newton winning this game in a high-scoring affair. I don’t love the pick, but I will take Carolina to win a game that they simply have to have to keep in the playoff race. PICK: Panthers
JACKSONVILLE (+2.5) at CHICAGO
In a battle of two teams with just one win each, I am taking the team with more rest (Jacksonville) as the Jaguars are coming off of their bye week. Honestly this game could go in either direction, but the Bears have only been able to score one more point than Jacksonville with an extra game under their belts. The problem with this pick is that right now, light rain is expected in Chicago, which could favor the ground game – and that favors Jordan Howard as the best running back in this contest. I see this one as a coin flip, 17-14 or 20-17 type game, so I am taking the points in a game I really don’t want to touch. PICK: Jaguars
LOS ANGELES (+3.5) at DETROIT
The Rams finally got Todd Gurley going last week, and now they travel to Detroit. The Lions have given up almost five yards per carry on the ground, which will be music to Gurley’s ears. Look for the Rams to rely on him and their defense on the road, plus their strong kicker in Greg Zeurlein indoors. He has 34 of the 82 points Los Angeles has scored, and he hasn’t missed – and two of his nine field goals have been from 50+ yards. I love that they are getting more than a field goal here, as I think the Rams win by three, but should definitely keep in close. PICK: Rams
PITTSBURGH (-7.5) at MIAMI
For those fans of Ben Roethlisberger and his big passing games at home, this will be a test as to how well the Steeler’s passing offense travels on the road. Miami has been a middle of the road passing defense in general statistics, but when you look at the QB rating against they are near the bottom with a 101.5 quarterback rating for opposing quarterbacks. When your defense is giving up QB ratings that are comparable to FM radio stations, that is a bad sign. Marcus Mariota just scored four touchdowns (three passing) against Miami last week – in Miami – and he had under 200 yards passing on the day. The Steelers should be able to roll into Miami and move the ball at will, winning easily by double digits. PICK: Steelers
NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs. CINCINNATI
Tom Brady came back in a big way last week against Cleveland, throwing for over 400 yards and three touchdowns on the road against the Browns. Now Brady heads home for the first time as the Bengals visit on Sunday. The only question is if Cincinnati can keep this one close, and I just do not see a way that they can. Is there a Brandon LaFell revenge game narrative? I doubt it. Whatever category you pick when it comes to Cincinnati, they are worse off than last year – points scored (down from over 26 last year to just over 18), points against (under 18 last year, 22 this season), rushing offense (13th last year, 26th now), rushing defense (19th now, 7th last year), and on and on. The red zone is even worse with the third worse offense in scoring range and the defense ranked 25th. Add in that Jeremy Hill is banged up and you can see why the point spread does not bother me here. Brady continues his big October return with another convincing win come Sunday. PICK: Patriots
KANSAS CITY (+1) at OAKLAND
At first I was not that sure as to what to do with this game, but then I remembered that Andy Reid is coming off of a bye week. His record in this situation is a stellar 15-2, but just 2-1 with Kansas City. Then I also noticed that Oakland is the second-worst team against tight ends when it comes to yardage and tied for fifth-worst in touchdowns against, so I am expecting a big game from Travis Kelce here. Oakland remains one of the best matchups for opposing quarterbacks, while Kansas City has been playing solid defense all season long. This is a big AFC West matchup with Oakland at 4-1, but I think that the Chiefs are going to be the biggest test for the Raiders so far this year. I like the rested team here in a big game that should be an exciting, 27-24 type contest. PICK: Chiefs
SEATTLE (-6) vs. ATLANTA
The Falcons clearly got on the wrong side of the schedule makers this season. First they have to face Carolina in Week 4, then the Broncos last week in Denver, and now a trip to Seattle to face the Seahawks, who happen to be coming off of a bye? Ouch. Despite that tough schedule, Matt Ryan has this team moving the ball every week and putting up points. That will surely be tested on the road in Seattle, which is not a great place to visit for even the best teams. The question here is how healthy are the Seahawks, who had Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and Thomas Rawls all nursing injuries as they headed into their week off. I almost went with the Falcons here, but the Seattle defense is at the top of the charts in both yards per carry against (3.3) and QB rating against (65.6). This is the week that Matt Ryan falls to earth, and Seattle starts to make their move towards the top of the NFC standings. PICK: Seahawks
GREEN BAY (-4) vs. DALLAS
This is a very intriguing matchup. Both teams here have suffered just one loss on the season, and both teams have been stout against the run. Dallas pasted the Bengals at home (it was a blowout before two late touchdowns) while the Packers seemed to control the entire game against the Giants, although not so much the scoreboard. The Packers have a banged up secondary, but Dallas is likely to be without Dez Bryant, so that could wash out. So the big question is if rookie Dak Prescott can go into Lambeau Field and move the ball if Ezekiel Elliott is getting stopped – or can Elliott and that top offensive line for the Cowboys can move the ball? Figuring out if the best run defense (Green Bay) can stop the best offensive line and a Top 5 run game (4.6 yards per carry) is the key matchup this week. I like Aaron Rodgers to move the ball at home and also use his ground game – either with Eddie Lacy or James Starks – to run on the Cowboys, who are giving up 4.6 yards per carry as well. Closer call than some might expect, but I like the home team by about a touchdown, 27-20. PICK: Packers
HOUSTON (-3) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Is Andrew Luck going to survive all year long? That offensive line for the Colts is working on getting their star quarterback killed this season, giving up five sacks to the Bears, a team who has multiple injuries for starters on defense, and this was on top of six sacks in London by Jacksonville two weeks ago. Luck is on pace to be sacked over 60 times this season, and both his ground game and his offensive line are showing no signs of helping him out in the near future. If J.J. Watt was in this game, I would think he might push for the single season sack record, but he is out for the year. This is a game that the Texans should be able to control in nearly every phase of the game, with Indianapolis struggling mightily on defense and only Luck’s herculean efforts possible to keep it close. I am going with the home team here and giving the field goal margin. PICK: Texans
(Monday) ARIZONA (-7.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
The Jets were shown the door early against the Steelers, but that was mostly because Ben Roethlisberger could do no wrong in the passing game. The Jets are really bad at defending quarterbacks overall right now, but can Arizona take advantage of this with issues of their own at quarterback? Carson Palmer is due back this week and if ever there was a “get right” game, this is it. David Johnson will find the inside runs very tough against that Jets defense, but he has the talent to turn the corner and also catch balls out of the backfield and run for big gains. That’s pretty much what I expect here with some Ryan Fitzpatrick disappointing throws mixed in for the Jets on offense. Arizona should take care of business at home on Monday Night Football, winning by double digits. PICK: Cardinals
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- BUFFALO (-7.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- LOS ANGELES “FOR THE WIN” (+150) at DETROIT
- NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- SEATTLE (-6) vs. ATLANTA
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-7.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.1-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- BUFFALO (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- TENNESSEE (-0.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- BUFFALO (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- TENNESSEE (-0.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) vs. ATLANTA
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (8.9-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- BUFFALO (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- TENNESSEE (-0.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) vs. ATLANTA
- LOS ANGELES (+9.5) at DETROIT
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- BALTIMORE (+3) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- LOS ANGELES (+3.5) at DETROIT
- PITTSBURGH (-7.5) at MIAMI
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
- BUFFALO (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND (OVER 46.5)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Buffalo, Tennessee, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, New England, Kansas City/Oakland (OVER 46.5), Seattle, Arizona
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-7 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 3-8 (27.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-3 (50%)
Season
- OVERALL: 38-39 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 32.8-63 (34.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 18-15 (54.5%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.