Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 8, 12 Team FPC Best Ball 28 Rounds

Jeff Haseley's Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 8, 12 Team FPC Best Ball 28 Rounds Jeff Haseley Published 08/07/2017

On August 2nd, 12 members of the Footballguys staff got together for the site's 8th mock draft of 2017. Below is the league scoring format and bylaws. This draft mirrors the setup and format of the Footballguys Players Championship Draft Experts League

       

League Parameters

  • 12 teams
  • 28 roster spots
  • Starting Lineup
    • 1 quarterback
    • 2 running backs
    • 2 wide receivers
    • 1 tight end
    • 2 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
    • 1 team defense

League Scoring

  • Offensive Players
    • 4 points - passing touchdown
    • 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
    • 0.05 points - passing yard
    • 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
    • 1 point - reception RP, WR
    • 1.5 point - reception TE
  • Team Defense
    • 6 points - touchdown
    • -1 point - interception
    • 2 points - turnover recovered
    • 5 points - safety
    • 1 point - sack
    • 12 points - Offensive points against: 0-0
    • 8 points - Offensive points against: 1-6
    • 5 points - Offensive points against: 7-10
    • 0 point - Offensive points against: 11-99
    • 6 points each - Number of Defensive and Special Teams Touchdowns

THE DRAFT ORDER

The draft order was created randomly. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft, pick by pick

  1. Maurile Tremblay
  2. Aaron Rudnicki
  3. Matt Williamson
  4. Jeff Tefertiller
  5. Matt Bitonti
  6. Mark Wimer
  7. Keith Roberts
  8. Devin Knotts
  9. Jason Wood
  10. Jeff Haseley
  11. Stephen Holloway
  12. Andy Hicks

Starting with Maurile Tremblay from the 1.01 spot, Dan Hindery provides an unbiased evaluation of each team's draft performance followed by each owner answering a series of questions about their draft and strategies. 

Maurile Tremblay - SLOT 1

PICK OVR SELECTION
1.01 1 Johnson, David ARI RB
2.12 24 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
3.01 25 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
4.12 48 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
5.01 49 Crabtree, Michael OAK WR
6.12 72 Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR
7.01 73 Coleman, Tevin ATL RB
8.12 96 Luck, Andrew IND QB
9.01 97 Mariota, Marcus TEN QB
10.12 120 Brate, Cameron TBB TE
11.01 121 Forte, Matt NYJ RB
12.12 144 Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
13.01 145 Shepard, Sterling NYG WR
14.12 168 Smith, Alex KCC QB
15.01 169 Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB (R)
16.12 192 Lee, Marqise JAC WR
17.01 193 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR
18.12 216 Barnidge, Gary FA TE
19.01 217 Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
20.12 240 Bills, Buffalo BUF Def
21.01 241 Hopkins, Dustin WAS PK
22.12 264 Lambo, Josh LAC PK
23.01 265 Dolphins, Miami MIA Def
24.12 288 Ellington, Andre ARI RB
25.01 289 Johnson, Chris ARI RB
26.12 312 Higbee, Tyler LAR TE
27.01 313 Novak, Nick HOU PK
28.12 336 Inman, Dontrelle LAC WR

Overall Strategy

RB2 by committee

Best Pick(s)

Andrew Luck (8.12, QB7) and Marcus Mariota (9.01, QB8) Drafting at the turn can often be a disadvantage when it comes to positional runs. You can also flip it into a big advantage by anticipating the runs and being the one to start them. Maurile did that here by kicking off a big run on quarterbacks in the 9th and 10th round. By being first to the punch, he was able to get tremendous value on Luck and Mariota and land two high upside QB1 options.

Worst Pick(s)

Patrick Mahomes (15.01, QB27) After Luck and Mariota, Maurile wisely grabbed a third quarterback (Alex Smith at 14.12). Three solid starting quarterbacks is the target in a deep best ball league like this. The decision to handcuff his QB3 at this point in the draft is a bit puzzling however. Even if Smith loses his job late in the season (or gets hurt), Maurile is still in great shape with Luck and Mariota. Plus, there’s not much upside here either. Even if Smith gets replaced, Mahomes is unlikely to have big weeks in which he outperforms Luck/Mariota by a significant margin. Stopping at three quarterbacks would have been ideal. But if using a fourth quarterback pick, a starter like Brian Hoyer would have been a better pick.

Evaluation

Drafting first and landing David Johnson is a big advantage in 2017. It’s not just his unmatched upside. He also comes with a weekly floor which makes you feel great about having one of the two running back spots filled each week. Johnson allows you to go somewhat light at RB2, which is the direction Maurile went. After Johnson, Maurile was able to land four highly dependable veteran receivers with solid upside. DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree and Emmanuel Sanders all came within the first six rounds and have top-15 upside. Kyle Rudolph is another safe, high-floor veteran who is capable of big numbers in this TE-Premium format. Maurile’s team is loaded at just about every position and should be a leading contender in this league.

post-draft questions

What was your overall strategy in this 28-roster FPC Best Ball draft? How do you think you pulled it off? What were the key picks (by you or others)?

Knowing that I had 28 roster spots to work with, I wanted at least three each of quarterbacks, kickers, and defenses. Weekly variance at those positions is high enough that, in a best-ball format, quantity becomes as important as quality. Quantity is helpful at every position, of course, but every team will have enough running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that it should be pretty rare to start a player at one of those positions who scores fewer than five fantasy points. Meanwhile, a single injury can force a team with only two quarterbacks to take a zero during the healthy player's bye week. Two injuries can be permanently devastating. Kickers and defenses will seemingly randomly score fewer than five points one week and more than 15 points the next. Having three instead of two greatly reduces the chance of having to take a very low score there in a given week.

With the rest of my roster, I wanted balance. I wanted strength at every position. After grabbing David Johnson with the first pick, I was willing to grab running backs, wide receivers, or tight ends with the next handful of picks in whatever order made sense based on how the draft unfolded. I seemed to personally value wide receivers more than other drafters did compared to running backs and tight ends, so I spent four of my next five picks (after David Johnson) grabbing wide receivers. We'll see how things play out, but I believe that, league wide, wide receivers will occupy more flex spots than running backs or tight ends. Comparing wide receivers with running backs drafted in the same rounds, wide receivers generally have the advantage because of the point-per-reception scoring. And aside from the very top tight ends, I think a similar comparison shows wide receivers to have the advantage over tight ends as well because the extra 0.5 points per receptions given to tight ends is insufficient to make up for their generally lower production.

So I let other owners spend more than I thought worthwhile on running backs and tight ends in rounds 2-6 while I mostly accumulated wide receivers.

It ended up working out pretty well, I think, because (a) landing David Johnson gives me a nice head start on finding two productive running backs each weak, and (b) I ended up with a tight end I like in Kyle Rudolph at a price I was happy to pay for him.

After using my first seven picks to select two running backs, four wide receivers, and a tight end, I doubled up at quarterback with my next two picks and ended up starting something of a run. It's generally good to be at the top of a run rather than the bottom (unless you have everyone in that run ranked about evenly).

On the whole, I like the team I finished with, but I am second-guessing a few of my decisions. As I said up top, I wanted three quarterbacks. When I was picking at the Round 14/15 turn, I had Alex Smith ranked significantly ahead of the other options available -- as long as he remains the starter. But drafting Smith forced me to draft Patrick Mahomes as well because I'm not confident that I can predict how long Smith will hold Mahomes off. And I figured: 28 roster spots is an awful lot. I'm not feeling any scarcity when it comes to spots on my bench.

But in hindsight, even though I like Alex Smith significantly better than Jared Goff, I'm not sure at all that I like Alex Smith better than Jared Goff plus Devontae Booker, or Jared Goff plus DeAndre Washington.

The other decision I'm second-guessing myself on came ten rounds later when, at the 24/25 turn, I selected Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson as handcuffs to David Johnson. Again, the fact that I had 28 roster spots to work with factored into that decision. I wouldn't have done it in a shallower league. My thinking was that if David Johnson is lost for the season I'm probably done anyway, but if he's lost for four or five weeks, having Ellington or Johnson step in and give me at least a few points could be enough to keep me afloat during that period. And I still approve of the general idea -- the problem is that the specific players involved give me no confidence that they'll actually give me a few points if and when David Johnson is out. Maybe it will be Kerwynn Williams. Maybe it will be a free agent off the street like Rashad Jennings or DeAngelo Williams. Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson have low ceilings -- which is fine in the 25th round -- but the fact that they also have low floors make them pretty unappetizing. (Not that there were any attractive options left at that point anyway. It was pretty deep in the draft.)

I would say that the key pick for me was David Johnson. It was an easy one, but it ended up shaping my entire draft because during the first half-dozen rounds I found myself seeing more value in wide receivers than in running backs as a rule. If I'd had the third or fourth pick instead of the first and selected Antonio Brown, I suspect that I would have ended up with a pretty weak group of running backs on the whole, which would have scuttled my plan to accumulate balanced strength at all the skill positions.

Aaron Rudnicki - Slot 2

PICK OVR SELECTION
1.02 2 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
2.11 23 Cooper, Amari OAK WR
3.02 26 Miller, Lamar HOU RB
4.11 47 Allen, Keenan LAC WR
5.02 50 Tate, Golden DET WR
6.11 71 Walker, Delanie TEN TE
7.02 74 Anderson, C.J. DEN RB
8.11 95 Perkins, Paul NYG RB
9.02 98 Carr, Derek OAK QB
10.11 119 Fiedorowicz, C.J. HOU TE
11.02 122 Manning, Eli NYG QB
12.11 143 Jones, Marvin DET WR
13.02 146 Palmer, Carson ARI QB
14.11 167 Charles, Jamaal DEN RB
15.02 170 Allen, Dwayne NEP TE
16.11 191 Hurns, Allen JAC WR
17.02 194 Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
18.11 215 Nelson, J.J. ARI WR
19.02 218 Prater, Matt DET PK
20.11 239 Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
21.02 242 Anderson, Robby NYJ WR
22.11 263 Hauschka, Steven BUF PK
23.02 266 McNichols, Jeremy TBB RB (R)
24.11 287 McDonald, Vance SFO TE
25.02 290 Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def
26.11 311 Boldin, Anquan FA WR
27.02 314 Gordon, Josh CLE WR
28.11 335 McCown, Josh NYJ QB

Overall Strategy

Balanced

Best Pick(s)

Keenan Allen (4.11, WR21) Injuries in each of the past two seasons will scare many drafters away from Allen, which provides an opportunity to get a top potential top-15 producer outside of the top-3 rounds. All the news out of San Diego is extremely positive when it comes to Allen’s recovery from a torn ACL that ended his 2016 season in Week 1. He should be the clear top target in San Diego and could go right back to putting up 20+ points per game.

Worst Pick(s)

Josh Gordon (27.02, WR104) The investment at this point in the draft is minimal, but it is not wise to squander late round picks on extreme long shots like Gordon. Adding a third Kicker would have been the better play. Kicker (and Defense) scoring is high variance from week-to-week. With 28 roster spots, it makes sense to shoot for three (or even four) at both spots. You’re more likely to get a couple random big weeks from your third kicker than cash in a lotto ticket like Gordon. In short, don’t throw away those late rounders if you haven’t secured three DST and PK.

Evaluation

Aaron took a pretty straight-forward, balanced approach and grabbed value with most of his picks. Aaron’s team has a strong floor with plenty of built in upside as well. It isn’t far-fetched to think that his top three receivers (Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen and Golden Tate) could each catch 100+ passes. Aaron also scored impressive depth at running back with C.J. Anderson and Paul Perkins as his RB3 and RB4.

post-draft questions

What was your overall strategy in this 28-roster FPC Best Ball draft? 

As with any draft, I always look for value and to build a deep and balanced roster. I tend to favor WRs and TEs more and try to wait as long as possible at QB, but also am not afraid to take RBs early since the position is not very deep. Picking out of the #2 spot, I knew that I’d start out with an elite RB and then would likely land a couple of strong starters with my next two picks. Given the long wait between odd and even round selections, I was going to be more susceptible to missing out on any positional runs that occurred. This meant I needed to pay close attention to ensure I didn’t miss out on an entire tier of players if I was considering taking someone at another position. Once I had most of my starting lineup spots filled, I would look for backups that were more likely to mix in some big games rather than looking for the safe players who would have less variability week to week and therefore not help me much.
 
How do you think you pulled it off? 
 
I was pretty happy with how my team came together. It certainly helps when you start off with a pick in the top-3 as the Big 3 running backs this year are the types of players who can really set you apart from the pack. I wasn’t crazy about the players that fell to me at my next turn, but Amari Cooper and Lamar Miller both have clear potential to finish among the top-10 players at their position. With only 1 wide receiver on my team after 3 picks, however, I was thrilled to land Keenan Allen and Golden Tate with my next two picks. At that point, my team felt really strong and balanced so I had the foundation in place to go in just about any direction from that point forward. As for my boom/bust depth players, I felt pretty happy with the choices I made. 
 
What were the key picks (by you or others)?
 
Given that 4 tight ends went between my pick at 5.02 and my next selection at 6.11, I was thrilled to land Delanie Walker as the 11th tight end selected. He finished in the top 7 at his position, and I expect another strong season with defenses now having to focus more attention on the outside receivers. Towards the end of the draft, I could have played it safe but decided to take some chances. Anquan Boldin seems likely to sign somewhere and make a contribution, and Josh Gordon may not play but I like his chances to hit big if he does get reinstated more than the chance to snag a few points from a lesser player. Also, with my QB2 and QB3 sharing a bye week, I decided to grab a starting QB in the 28th round just in case Derek Carr was injured in week 10 but I may have been better off with his backup Connor Cook (assuming he holds off E.J. Manuel).
 
I thought Maurile grabbing Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota at the 8th/9th round turn was brilliant. While waiting on the quarterback position is generally a wise move, a run was almost certainly coming at that point and he landed two players with huge upside. As it turns out, there were 9 quarterbacks taken before his next pick, so it’s pretty clear he played that perfectly. 
 

Matt Williamson - Slot 3

PICK OVR SELECTION
1.03 3 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
2.10 22 Fournette, Leonard JAC RB (R)
3.03 27 Mixon, Joe CIN RB (R)
4.10 46 Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR
5.03 51 Wilson, Russell SEA QB
6.10 70 Bennett, Martellus GBP TE
7.03 75 Jackson, DeSean TBB WR
8.10 94 Moncrief, Donte IND WR
9.03 99 Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
10.10 118 Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB
11.03 123 Coleman, Corey CLE WR
12.10 142 Doctson, Josh WAS WR
13.03 147 Seferian-Jenkins, Austin NYJ TE
14.10 166 Conner, James PIT RB (R)
15.03 171 Goff, Jared LAR QB
16.10 190 Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR
17.03 195 Funchess, Devin CAR WR
18.10 214 Giants, New York NYG Def
19.03 219 Williams, Jonathan BUF RB
20.10 238 Lewis, Dion NEP RB
21.03 243 Conley, Chris KCC WR
22.10 262 Swoope, Erik IND TE
23.03 267 Bears, Chicago CHI Def
24.10 286 Rogers, Eli PIT WR
25.03 291 Henderson, Carlos DEN WR (R)
26.10 310 Barth, Connor CHI PK
27.03 315 Williams, Chad ARI WR (R)
28.10 334 Kaepernick, Colin FA* QB

Overall Strategy

All In on the Rookie Running Backs

Best Pick(s)

Ezekiel Elliott (1.03, RB3) Elliott has been falling into the mid-first in many recent drafts due to the uncertainty regarding a possible suspension. While it is understandable to seek safety with someone like Antonio Brown at 1.03, Elliott remains the best choice. His upside is through the roof. Not only is he an elite talent running behind the league’s best line, but his passing game usage is expected to increase in year two. He could miss a game or two and still outscore the top receivers. Plus, the depth at receiver makes it easier to fill the position with quality options in the mid-late rounds. If it’s close, lean towards drafting an RB over a WR early.

Worst Pick(s)

Russell Wilson (5.03, QB4) The uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck’s health makes Wilson a reasonable choice as the fourth quarterback off the board. But he probably would have made it back around to Matt’s selection in the sixth round and was a reach at 5.03. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton in the 9th round or Kirk Cousins in the 10th were much better values with similar upside. With the depth of the quarterback position, it makes more sense to wait until the 8th-11th rounds and grab a pair of top-20 passers.

Evaluation

Matt went all-in on the rookie runners, using 2nd andc3rd round picks on Leonard Fournette and Joe Mixon. One of the hottest debates on fantasy twitter is whether the rookie running backs have shot up draft boards too high in recent weeks. Some would argue that Mixon at 3.03 is a reach. If you believe one or more of the top four rookie backs (Fournette, Mixon, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook) are elite talents that can make an immediate fantasy impact, don’t be scared to take your shot and grab them early. If you don’t, someone else will. The Elliott/Fournette/Mixon start to the draft carries risk, but the upside is immense and worth rolling the dice on. If Mixon and Fournette both hit, this team could be tough to beat.

post-draft
Photos provided by Imagn Images

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