Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 7, 12 Team PPR w/ Flex

Photo: USA Today Sports

On July 30th, the Footballguys staff completed a 12-team PPR with flex mock draft. Below are the league's scoring and bylaws. 

League Parameters

• 12 teams
• 20 roster spots
• Starting Lineup
• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
• 1 place kicker
• 1 team defense

League Scoring

• Offensive Players
• 4 points - passing touchdown
• 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
• 0.05 points - passing yard
• 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
• Place Kickers
• 3 points - field goal from 0 to 39 yards
• 4 points - field goal from 40 to 49 yards
• 5 points - field goal from 50 to 99 yards
• Team Defense
• 6 points - touchdown
• 2 points - turnover forced
• 2 points - safety
• 1 point - sack
• 10 points - 0 points allowed
• 7 points - 1-6 points allowed
• 3 points - 7-13 points allowed
• 0 points - 15-20 points allowed
• -3 points - 21-99 points allowed

The Draft Order

The draft order was randomly generated. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft, pick by pick or Grid Format of the draft. 

1. Alex Miglio
2. Devin Knotts
3. Adam Harstad
4. Jeff Haseley
5. Jeff Tefertiller
6. Stephen Holloway
7. Justin Howe
8. David Dodds
9. Danny Tuccitto
10. James Brimacombe
11. Chris Feery
12. John Mamula

Starting with Alex Miglio from the 1.01 spot, we will go over each person's selections in the mock draft.

Alex Miglio - SLOT 1

Overall Strategy

Mix it up and build a well-rounded team.

Best Pick(s)
Marcus Mariota, 8.12 (QB8) – Mariota is ready to break out and could easily finish as a top five quarterback this year. This team is loaded with weapons and Mariota is by far the biggest beneficiary for fantasy purposes. He now has Erick Decker, to go along with highly touted rookies Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor, Rishard Matthews, running back Demarco Murray and tight end Delanie Walker. Not to mention depth pieces in Tajae Sharpe, Derek Henry and Harry Douglas. Last season he averaged more than 21 fantasy points a game and went on a solid run from Week 5 through 12 where he had at least two touchdowns a game, finishing as a Top 12 quarterback in every week. With one of the best offensive lines in football and in his third season, Mariota is ready to rock.

Worst Pick(s)
Desean Jackson, 7.1 (WR35) – I love Jackson the player and this is not a bad spot to draft him, but when looking at Alex’s overall team, he’s not the player for him to draft. With Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Mike Wallace and Kenny Britt, I feel like a more stable PPR week-to-week option such as Brandon Marshall, who went later that round, would have served his fantasy team better. If this were a best ball league, I would have no issue with it, but in season long, it’s all about mixing and matching high floor and high ceiling guys when you set your lineup.

Evaluation
Lots to love with this team, he has solid starters and depth at each position. He’s got studs everywhere you look, even drafting the Texans Defense. Once again, the only hole is at wide receiver, but he still has a lot of talent there. This team should be a contender for sure. It’s also interesting to note that he went with LeVeon Bell over David Johnson; it really is pick your poison between those two.

post-draft questions

1. Which one player in particular do you see rising up ADP ranks as we get closer to September?

If we are talking about players on my team, the Giovani Bernard hype train just pulled out of the repair yard. Reports from camp are already glowing, a great sign for a guy who just tore his ACL this past November. Joe Mixon was the hot name all offseason, but a great preseason for Bernard will see his ADP skyrocket, particularly in PPR leagues.

2. What is your strategy for targeting your QB1 in drafts?  Is there a certain player you target in every draft, or do you let the draft come to you and take the best value?

I tend not to prioritize the QB position early in any draft, and the guy I tend to take the most has become Ben Roethlisberger. I have him pegged as a top-five quarterback this year if he can stay on the field for 15 or 16 games. That Pittsburgh offense is going to light the NFL on fire, and I want the guy under center who is a huge bargain. Taking Big Ben in the eighth round or beyond affords me the opportunity to fill out the rest of my roster nicely while still scoring a great quarterback. It also means I am more inclined to take a second quarterback like Philip Rivers sooner than later to hedge for injury.

3. What quarterback in the Top 10 do you tend to shy away from?

Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck.

The dude might not even start the season. He's not even throwing yet, and the Colts seem bent on bringing him along as cautiously as possible. His ADP is going to start plummeting here in a minute, and I still don't think I'd take him anywhere in the first seven or eight rounds.

Devin Knotts - Slot 2

Overall Strategy

Late round wide receiver.

Best Pick(s)
Ameer Abdullah, 7.2 (RB29) – While this is Devin’s fourth running back, he makes for an excellent #3 that you can use in the flex spot, bye weeks and for spot play throughout the season, with the possibility for much more if he stays healthy all year. He had an elite top 97% SPARQ athletic score coming out of college, which was even higher than David Johnson and better than anyone in this years draft class. Will he approach 300 rush attempts? No. But beat writers said that they do intend to get him at least 200 carries and he should see 250+ touches.

Worst Pick(s)
Dalvin Cook, 5.2 (RB19) – I don’t hate drafting Cook here and I’ve actually started to warm up to him more as Latavius Murray continues to miss time and as reports continue to be positive out of camp. Cook produced big time in college, although slid to the second round of the draft due to a horrible SPARQ score (bottom 15 percent), fumbling issues and off-field concerns. If he plays like he did in college, he will be the Vikings lead back, but this offensive line is a major concern. My reason though for putting him here is that this is his third running back, he is weak at wide receiver and he still got Abdullah two rounds later that can fill the same role for his overall team.

Evaluation
This team is great except for the wide receiver position, which could be his downfall. Donte Moncrief is not a WR1 (at least yet) and Andrew Luck may not practice in the pre-season or even play the first few games to start the season. I also like Cameron Meredith and Erick Decker, but Meredith is stuck playing on a team with quarterback issues and Decker joins a very crowded receiving core, not to mention he is coming off of two surgeries in his age 30 season. All three receivers make for great WR3’s and not WR1’s or WR2’s.

post-draft questions

1. Which player on your roster do you feel you received the most value?

Tom Brady at 4.11 is an absolute steal. These drafts tend to see quarterbacks later than most leagues, but to get Brady at the end of the fourth round was a bargain. All signs are pointing towards Brady passing more than last year as the team added Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski is healthy for now, and the team let LeGarrette Blount go who provided very little from the receiving game last season. 

2. If you could have a mulligan on any pick of your draft, who would it be and who would you select instead?

I would have went with Lamar Miller over Leonard Fournette due to the safety of Miller compared to Fournette. At the time of taking Fournette I did not see myself being able to get Dalvin Cook where I got him, so having two rookie running backs obviously is not ideal in the first five picks of the draft. Having Miller to complement David Johnson and then take Cook as a luxury third running back would have been a nice start, but instead I exposed myself to too much risk by taking the two rookies. 

3. Name a player that wasn't drafted that you think could be a big waiver wire claim in the first quarter of the season?

Anquan Boldin is likely that guy and I am surprised he was not taken when other wide receivers that have significantly less upside were taken that late. Boldin will sign somewhere prior to the season starting and Boldin can be a guy who has great red zone upside depending on the situation he goes to which he will make sure it is a good one. 

Adam Harstad - Slot 3

Overall Strategy

Give me your old, give me your injured.

Best Pick(s)
Brandon Marshall, 7.2 (WR36) - People are writing him off because he didn't put up numbers playing in a horrible offense last year with the NFL's worst rated quarterback. The simple case for Marshall: Last season over 30% of his targets were deemed off-target; the Giants do not want to force feed Odell Beckham Jr. like they did last year; Marshall won't be game planned for like Beckham will be; he will be playing against teams #2 corners and/or facing single coverage for the majority of games for the first time in his career; he stands 6'4” while Beckham and Shepard are both under 6'; he's a dominant red-zone threat up there with Rob Gronkowski and Dez Bryant; Giants will probably use a short passing attack to hide their offensive line and running back deficiencies, a game plan that suits Marshall well; and the team lacks a dominant tight end. At this point in the draft, he’s a rock solid PPR option.

Worst Pick(s)
DeAndre Hopkins, 2.10 (WR11) - Major regression last season and I'm not talking about his quarterback play. Routes, effort, precision and technique all regressed. That's not to say the quarterback play was very good, and unfortunately, it may not be very good again this year. For a big receiver, he also fared poorly against man coverage, finishing 20th out of the 50 players Matt Harmon tracked in his Reception Perception metric. Not a player I'm targeting this early in drafts until we see if Deshaun Watson can become this year’s Dak Prescott. Adam also drafted Antonio Brown with his first pick and Demaryius Thomas with his third, so no need to assume the risk with Hopkins in the second.

Matt Ryan, 6.10 (QB5) - All of their offensive pieces remain and tight end Austin Hooper could develop into a true weapon. The biggest loss was OC Kyle Shanahan moving on to the 49ers after Ryan had a career year, as his Adjusted Yards/Attempt of 10.1 was the third best of all time behind only Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Peyton Manning in 2013, finishing the season as the QB1. Per PFF, his fantasy points per drop back also skyrocketed to 0.59 after being below the NFL average the prior three seasons. However, there is a reason Ryan was going off the board beyond round 10 last year, and we can probably assume there will be some regression to his mean. I have no problem taking Ryan this early if quarterbacks are flying off the board, but as the QB5, Adam probably could have waited a few rounds before grabbing his quarterback. That said, if he loves him, he loves him and always make sure to get your guys.

Evaluation
The biggest issue I have with Adam’s team comes down to age and injury. Demaryius Thomas potentially has a chronic hip issue, Marshawn Lynch is 31 and didn’t play last year, Jordan Reed has a scary concussion history and is already banged up in camp with a mysterious toe injury, Brandon Marshall is 33 years old, Frank Gore is 34 years old, Jonathan Stewart is 30, Darren Sproles is 34 and Latavius Murray has yet to practice all off-season with no projected timeline for his return. One or two of these guys, fine. But eight of them? Oh no.

post-draft questions

1. You selected your first running back at pick 4.10 (Marshawn Lynch). Other than Lynch, who are your preferred running backs that you would be happy to have as your RB1 in that same ADP range?

I usually try to stay pretty flexible on value and don't really concern myself with labels like "RB1" or "RB2". Typically if I think a back is a good value where he falls I'll grab him, and if I don't I won't, regardless of what the rest of my depth chart looks like. I was pretty comfortable taking Lynch because I really didn't think any of the other backs left on the board were good value there at all, but if the draft had played out differently and a different player had fallen, I would have been fine with any of the three backs who went before Lynch-- Ty Montgomery, Joe Mixon, or Christian McCaffrey-- instead. Or, alternately, had those three plus Lynch all been taken, I would have been happy to wait several more rounds before grabbing my nominal RB1.

2. Which player do you see dropping in ADP as we get closer to Week 1 that still has starter value?  

I'll plead ignorance on this one, as I don't pay too much attention to ADP trends. Obviously ADP is a bit of a lagging indicator, and it takes a couple weeks for news to work its way through the system and get fully reflected, but otherwise by and large I'm not looking at labels like rising or falling or looking ahead to anticipate trends. I wrote earlier this offseason about how ADP benefits from the wisdom of the crowds and will outperform the net average of all other individual strategies, so I'm usually less concerned with trying to outsmart it and more concerned with being open and catching whatever value falls my way.

3. Which one player returning from injury do you feel has the best chance to rebound this season? 

Probably Marshawn Lynch, if I'm allowed to count him even though his injury was back in 2015. In large part because his injury was back in 2015, so he will have had the most time to get over it. This is not to say that there aren't plenty of other concerns surrounding him, (there's a reason he falls to the 4th despite what would seem to be a compelling history and a clearly-defined role), but I'm more worried about him turning out to have aged a lot in the last year than I am about any injuries.

Jeff Haseley - Slot 4

Overall Strategy

Great balance and a leap into the unknown.

Best Pick(s)
Zay Jones, 17.4 (WR72) – Jones is 6'2” 201 pounds with 4.45 jets. He can play outside or in the slot. He is having a good camp so far and could easily see 100 targets this year on a team devoid of any pass catchers outside of Sammy Watkins.

Worst Pick(s)
Todd Gurley, 2.9 (RB10) - He knows he played poorly last year, but he’s still the man here and they upgraded their offensive line, at least a bit. Last season, per the NFL's NextGen Stats, Gurley had -.07 yards before a defender was within 1 yard of him, which means that defenders essentially lived in the Rams backfield. Additionally, per PFF, 68.5% of Gurley's yards were gained after contact, meaning he had to work for every yard gained. It’s a make or break year in real life for Gurley, while in fantasy, he at least has a pedestrian RB2 floor with a huge ceiling if he can live up to his rookie year hype and this offensive line can get their act together. It’s just tough betting on a guy like Gurley in the second round after witnessing him struggle so badly last year.

Evaluation
This is a very well rounded team, with a good mix of high floor and high ceiling players. A job well done.

post-draft questions

1. Which player were you most excited to see still on the board at your turn to pick?

I was thrilled to see Christian McCaffrey at 4.09. I contemplated taking him at 3.04 as crazy as that sounds, simply because I didn't think he would make it back to me. To my astonishment, he did and I gladly took him as my RB2. People don't realize how much McCaffrey is going to help the Panthers offense. He's a capable rusher (2,000 yards at Stanford) in 2015 and we know he's an above average receiver regardless of position. I'm expecting 900 total yards, about 120-130 carries and 50-60 receptions with 5-6 touchdowns. That's good enough for Top 20 numbers and that's just my floor on him. The sky is the limit with McCaffrey. He has little to no issues with ball security and his pass protection is adequate (although it could improve), but it won't keep him from seeing the field. He's a consummate professional and a student of the game. What's not to like? 

2. You have two high-upside wide receivers on your roster in Corey Davis and Josh Doctson. Explain why you decided to take a chance on them in this draft.

Corey Davis and Josh Doctson are my 4th and 5th wide receivers on my roster, so I don't need to rely heavily on either of them. Davis was the 5th overall pick in the NFL draft and with that comes a history of success. Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson all were Top 5 picks. That's pretty good company to be in. Sure there's a few Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick's and Justin Blackmons in that group, but the pedigree of success is definitely there. I expect the Titans to utilize Davis quite a bit this year and it's possible that he turns into great player overnight. As for Doctson - I like him because of his potential and the fact that he's replacing Pierre Garcon in the Washington offense that saw Kirk Cousins throw for 4,900 yards last year. I'm all about taking players on high scoring offenses and Doctson fits the bill. If Doctson turns into a fantasy relevant player, I want a piece of that pie. To win your league, you need to take chances on the right players at the right time and wait for them to blossom into quality players. If you can do that with a bench player - all the power to you. 

3. What is your strategy for selecting a quarterback in drafts this season?

My strategy is to wait as long as I can or until the Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota picks are made, then I make my move and select either Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins or if I miss out on them, Eli Manning a round later. If Cam Newton falls into that range I may go after him as well. I have not taken a stud quarterback in any draft yet, but if Drew Brees fell into the 6th round and I'm not liking the other choices, I will pounce on him. I am a believer in filling your starting roster up before selecting your quarterback. The reason being, the 11th or 12th ranked quarterback aren't that far off from the 7th or 8th quarterback in terms of final fantasy points. Why not wait and use those picks on your WR3 or flex position?  That's my philosophy when it comes to selecting a quarterback. 

Jeff Tefertiller - Slot 5

Overall Strategy

Grab your RB1 and then slam wide receivers hard.

Best Pick(s)
Allen Robinson, 3.5 (WR15) – Blake Bortles is really bad, and this year's garbage time production should be reduced due to a very strong Jaguars defense and a seeming commitment to put the ball in Leonard Fournette's belly and not Bortles' hand. Marqise Lee also started coming on strong last year and proved to be a more reliable receiving option as Robinson struggled mightily against top rated corners, averaging a pathetic 0.68 fantasy points per targets against the top 20 corners according to Scott Barett at PFF. The Jags do have the easiest overall schedule in the league this year and a middle of the pack schedule for outside receivers at least. While Robinson is still one of the best young receivers in the league, with fewer opportunities, he's a risky grab.

Worst Pick(s)
Ezekiel Elliot, 1.05 – Can’t say Elliot is a horrible pick, but it is one that comes with more downside than there appears to be. Elliot led the league in rushing with 1,631 yards (5.1ypc) and had15 touchdowns on the ground, adding 32 catches, on 40 targets, for an additional 363 yards and 1 touchdown through the air. He finished the season with a rock solid 21 fantasy points per game and played on 71% of the team’s snaps. Unfortunately this season the Dallas offensive line lost two key pieces and is now probably just a top 10 unit instead of the leagues best unit, they also go from one of the easiest schedules in the league last year to one of the hardest this year. Then there is his looking suspension, which right now can be anywhere from 2 to 6 games.

Evaluation
The key to Jeff’s team is Elliot. If he doesn’t miss many games and performs well, his team will do well, if not, there is very little reliable running back depth to help him out. If you go Elliot in the first round, you should probably grab another running back before the 6th round, and not someone like Derek Henry who is just a backup at that.

post-draft questions

1. Which players do you feel were your best and worst picks in the draft?

I will always take the chance on Elliott at the1.05 pick or later.  Yes, there were plenty of good WRs available.  But, I was able to get Dez Bryant and Allen Robinson at the 2/3 turn.  For those who do not like Robinson, Doug Baldwin was available.  I did not select him because he had the same bye week as the two Cowboys.  The risk of selecting Elliott was mitigated by selecting Darren McFadden with an eleventh-round pick.  For a later pick I liked, I think getting the two Bronco RBs with my final picks was a solid move.  Booker and Henderson could see time given Anderson's injury history and Charles still in a knee brace.  I like getting two backups from the same team and watch the situation play out.  For worst best, waiting too long and getting Jack Doyle was a little disappointing.  There was quite the tight end run.  Making it worse, I missed out with pairing him with Swoope.  

2. Is there any player in particular that was selected before your pick that you were most upset about?

Since I skimped on the running back position, I was hoping for Jonathan Stewart in the 11th.  Adam Harstad took him two picks before my 11.05 selection.  I shifted toward taking McFadden earlier than expected with that selection.  

3. You selected Josh Gordon as an upside pick at 18.08. Why should people take a chance on Gordon? 

This league is a redraft league with waivers running.  I would much rather take a chance on an high-upside, low-probability situation than just an average backup.  Even if Gordon has just a 5% of reinstatement, his WR1 potential makes it worthwhile.  He is expected to file again for reinstatement this "Fall" so we should know before long whether keep him - and celebrate - or drop for a different reserve. 

Stephen Holloway - Slot 6

Overall Strategy

Zero RB by loading up on PPR backs.

Best Pick(s)
Cooper Kupp, 19.06 (WR80) – Kupp is a 6'1” 204 pound slot receiver who runs precise routes, can beat all forms of coverage and has very reliable hands. He’s making a name for himself in camp and Kupp could end up leading this team in catches as a rookie. Sneaky PPR upside and just might have the best rookie season in this year's wide receiver class.

Worst Pick(s)
Philip Rivers, 10.07 (QB13) – This isn’t a best ball league, so you don’t take a quarterback in the 10th round if you use your 3rd round pick on Aaron Rodgers. No idea what Stephen was thinking here, especially since he was going Zero RB.

Kyle Rudolph, 7.06 (TE7) – This isn’t a tight end premium league, so you don’t take a tight end in the 7th round if you use your 5th round pick on Greg Olsen. Once again, no idea what Stephen was thinking here, especially since he was going Zero RB.

Evaluation
Stephen could have crushed it if he grabbed running backs instead of Rivers and Rudolph. That said, still a solid draft and he has a slew of PPR running backs, but none are very stable or reliable.

post-draft questions

1. Which player on your roster were you most excited to see available at your turn to pick.

I was thrilled to be able to draft Larry Fitzgerald at 4.7 as the 25th wide receiver taken in the draft. Fitzgerald has averaged 108 receptions for 1,120 yards and 7.5 touchdowns for the past two seasons. Even though both he and Carson Palmer are in the twilight of their careers, these two should again produce above expectations in 2017. Fitzgerald was taken slightly above his ADP, but among Footballguy Staffers, only Bloom and Tefertiller rank him below his ADP and both Wood and Lee rank him at WR14. Among the four staff projectors, he is ranked no lower than WR17. I typically draft more heavily at wide receiver in ppr leagues and was more than excited to get Fitzgerald as my third wide receiver (Julio Jones and Amari Cooper already on board). With that trio at wide receiver and Aaron Rodgers as my top quarterback, I have already achieved strength at two positions.

2. Who is a player that you tend to stay away from in drafts?

I have no doubt that I will not draft Melvin Gordon in 2017. His current ADP is #9 overall and RB4. Over his first two seasons, he has averaged only 3.7 ypr. In addition, he has already missed five games. He improved greatly in his second season, but still averaged under 4.0 ypc and failed to reach 1,000 yards (only 3 short). The only thing area where he significantly improved was scoring touchdowns. He has 12 in his second season after failing to score in 217 total touches as a rookie. He caught a few more passes, but had 20 more targets in his second season. The targets should be less this season as the Chargers have their best receiving depth in several years. I know that he is very likely to be the Charger bell-cow, but for the 4th running back off the board, I need better production per opportunity.

3. If there is one rookie running back that you could have on your roster this year, who would it be and why?

I like several of the rookie running backs but with my tendency to draft multiple wide receivers early, I frequently miss out on the top choices. Picking rather late, I love the apparent value of both Kareem Hunt and Joe Williams, with Williams being my favored choice due to his much lower ADP. Hunt is going at RB38 while Joe Williams is currently RB 54.  

Justin Howe - Slot 7

Overall Strategy

Take impact players with every pick, while waiting on quarterback.

Best Pick(s)
Doug Baldwin, 3.7 (WR16) – Justin must have been thrilled to have Baldwin fall to him this last, with a current ADP of 2.10. Has some serious mojo with Russell Wilson and that cannot be underestimated. He's an underrated talent and finished in the top 10 in both PFF and Football Outsider rankings, look for that to continue this year.

Worst Pick(s)
Dak Prescott, 10.06 (QB12) – It’s tough to find a bad pick on this team, but with some other solid quarterback options still on the board, Justin grabbed Prescott who may be in line for some regression this season. The team’s offensive line is not quite as good as last year, outside of Dez Bryant, this team lacks any reliable dynamic receiving weapons and they will still run their offense through Zeke. Teams will also now have a full year to game plan for him and they go from having one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the hardest.

Evaluation
This is a great overall team that has no real weaknesses. You can tell Justin knew he had issues with quarterback, which is why he drafted Deshone Kizer and Rayn Tannehill later in the draft.

post-draft questions

1. If you could only start one wide receiver, would you rather have a high target receiver who doesn't score as often, or a receiver with average targets that scores a lot of touchdowns?

I almost always chase target hogs. Their production is just steadier and more predictable than that of an Allen Robinson type who needs dynamic quarterbacking and a bevy of huge plays to reach value. Generally speaking, for a wideout taken in the first 5 rounds, I like to see fair projections of at least 75-80 catches. That comes from a healthy diet of targets, but also from target-to-target efficiency, which we can measure solidly with catch rate and air yardage. I'm certainly not opposed to guys like Robinson or Davante Adams, but they tend to need ideal situations and a few external variables to pan out. Generally speaking, we as fantasy folk are much stronger at predicting volume than at predicting efficiency, so it makes a lot more sense to chase the predictable with premium picks than the wildly variable.
Consider that, by my projections, Jarvis Landry (13.67 PPR points per game) checks in as almost identical to Davante Adams (13.50). But whose outlook should we trust more? Landry projects to see about 20 more opportunities on the ball than does Adams, after all. And since efficiency wavers year-to-year more than volume, I absolutely prefer the voluminous Landry. It's more likely a high-volume guy like that turns a few of his many receptions into long plays or touchdowns, then a guy like Adams maintains last year's wild touchdown rate, or Robinson again registers 31 long receptions.

2. You selected Dak Prescott as the 12th quarterback off the board, but Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning were all available. Explain why you like Prescott this season.

Simply put, my projection model spits out markedly better 2017 numbers for Prescott than any of those guys. My model tabs him as the QB12, ahead of Roethlisberger (QB14 and a major injury risk), Rivers (QB15), and Manning (QB16). Fantasy drafters tend to underrate rushing contributions from quarterbacks, and Prescott projects to virtually triple theircombined rushing production. And that's a huge boon. After all, his 2016 rushing numbers equaled 705 passing yards and 9 passing touchdowns. In other words, if Prescott hadn't taken a single 2016 carry, he still would've scored parallel to a QB who threw for 4,616 yards and 34 scores over 16 games. That's pretty much the realistic ceiling for any of the three pass-only guys listed above. And if Prescott's volume increases due to an Ezekiel Elliott suspension and/or regression, that will be an even sexier advantage.

3. Which players do you feel were your best and worst picks in the draft?

Readers of mine know how much I love Rishard Matthews, and to scoop him up as the WR52 looks like larceny. I know his ADP deserves a modest hit with Eric Decker and Corey Davis on board, but this is just too far a fall. Matthews averaged 4 catches for 65 yards and 0.7 scores over the final 13 weeks last year; he's an exceptionally efficient receiver who's developing into a nose-for-the-end-zone guy (13 touchdowns on his last 108 receptions). To me, WR52 is his absolute floor, and he carried the upside of a top-30 wideout.
I also love the value I got from Tevin Coleman. There are plenty of reasons not to like him: he's a limited back who doesn't break tackles, and the Falcons offense is certain to regress in 2017. But RB26 is too low. He's proven himself an NFL producer, which is more than we can say of the four rookie backs that came off the board before him. And he's definitely more dynamic than the likes of Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, and Doug Martin, all of whom also went first. Coleman finished 2016 as the per-game RB13 while never usurping Devonta Freeman on the totem pole. If that's his floor, and he boasts a top-12 ceiling should Freeman go down, then RB26 is a sheer steal.

The pick I'm least excited about is Jordan Howard. Round 2 is not where I like to select top-tier running backs, and Howard especially comes with some major question marks. His offense looks terrible, and his rookie production was far above his as-a-prospect expectations, suggesting an overachievement. Sadly, this was a value-driven pick made after Michael Thomas and T.Y. Hilton were both sniped just before my slot. I opted for Howard because he at least has the upside to outdo the next several RBs on the board by a good bit, and I don't quite believe the same for Dez Bryant at WR.

David Dodds - Slot 8