Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 13, 12-team FPC format, Best Ball

I started the draft with a big advantage by lucking into the top pick. I knew I would go David Johnson and that his fantastic weekly floor would lock up one of my two RB slots every week, which would allow me to ignore running back for a while. Johnson allows you to load up at other positions while employing an RB2-by committee approach with later round picks. 

Things mostly went as planned. I came in targeting a pair of WR1s at the 2/3 turn and landed Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks. I knew I wanted to load up with a lot early receivers and grabbed six guys with realistic 1,000+ yard potential in the first 11 rounds. I was planning on grabbing my TE1 at the 4/5 turn because I knew the tight end run would start soon after and was happy with Tyler Eifert at 5.01. 

My original plan was to grab two top-10 quarterbacks at the 8/9 turn. But the slide of Aaron Rodgers forced a change in that plan. While the top quarterbacks are worth slightly less in best ball, Rodgers and Tom Brady are still steals if they fall into the 5th round. When Rodgers was still available at the 4/5 turn, I jumped at the opportunity. And when Andrew Luck fell to the 8/9 turn, I happily scooped him up as well. The Rodgers/Luck combination makes me the favorite to lead this league in QB scoring at the end of the year and the investment in terms of draft picks wasn’t prohibitive. 

Grabbing a running back who is part of a committee is rough in season-long leagues. You never know which weeks to start him and you never feel great when he’s in your lineup because he isn’t guaranteed a heavy workload each week.

The RBBC backs are much more attractive in best ball leagues because you don’t have to sweat the poor weeks and can take advantage of the strong weeks. Chris Thompson (drafted at 16.12) is a great example. He averaged just 10.4 PPG last season, which made him a mediocre option to have in a starting lineup each week (RB25 overall). But he had four weeks in which he scored 13 or more points and nine weeks where he scored 10+. I drafted five of these committee backs in the 10th-16th round range and should be able to take advantage of the four or five strong scoring weeks each should produce because the top scores are automatically counted each week. 

I’ve been scooping up DeVante Parker in the 6th-8th round of almost every draft the last few weeks. He’s a talented receiver who was one of the first receivers off the board in the 2015 draft. He was plagued by injuries and inconsistency his first two years. But he looks like a prime third-year breakout candidate. He’s been drawing rave reviews throughout training camp and looked to have a great connection with Jay Cutler in their first preseason action. Cutler called him “a faster Alshon (Jeffery).” Cutler helped Jeffery emerge as a big-time fantasy receiver when healthy and could do the same for Parker. 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins is another player whom I’m willing to take a couple rounds ahead of ADP (especially in deeper TE-premium leagues like FPC). Seferian-Jenkins has always been supremely talented but his issues with alcohol kept him from fulfilling his massive potential. Over the offseason, Seferian-Jenkins quit drinking and lost 33 pounds. He has been one of the few bright spots in training camp for the Jets. With the worst wide receiver corps in the league, it has been speculated that Seferian-Jenkins could emerge as the top target in the offense.

Overall Strategy

Wide Receiver Heavy

Best Pick(s)
Eric Ebron, 7.02, TE12.
In the 1.5 point per reception league, Eric Ebron makes a ton of sense and is a great value for Ryan’s team assuming that Ebron can stay healthy as he fell in the draft due to preseason injuries. Ebron is entering his third season and has the upside if he can stay healthy to be a top six tight end which for Ryan to get him this late is a nice high risk high reward pick. He complimented Ebron with a very safe tight end in Charles Clay
which also was a great pick.

Worst Pick(s)
Tyrell Williams 6.11, WR 33.
There is a lot to like about Tyrell Williams this year, but this pick was buying into the hype too much as Ryan took Tyrell significantly above his ADP to ensure that he got him. With other players still available taking Williams as his fifth wide receiver in six rounds is an aggressive strategy that ended up hurting Ryan as he could have had a better second running back or starting tight end.

Evaluation
Ryan went with a wide receiver heavy approach after his first round pick which could pay dividends at the flex position every week especially in a Best Ball format with two flex positions. Outside of Le’Veon Bell, Ryan is going to be reliant on a running back by committee each week for his second running back spot which could work if Samaje Perine gains a larger role in the Redskins offense and Mike Gillislee/Shane Vereen have a few strong weeks throughout the season. Wide receivers often are more volatile than running backs but they have a higher ceiling so this team is intriguing if the receivers can perform on a week to week basis.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?
With the good fortune of having a top-two pick, the post-David Johnson/LeVeon Bell (I ended up with Bell) plan was to hoard wide receivers. Being a PPR league, they carry more value than running backs. And starting two of each with two additional flex spots allows for a starting lineup of as many as four wide receivers.

So my goal was to populate my best ball lineup in a way that I'd "start" four receivers in most weeks. The strategy focused on predictability. Early-round players are more predictable than late-rounders, and receptions are more predictable than touchdowns. So the focus early on was to hoard as many receptions as possible. After Bell, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas, Terrelle Pryor, and Stefon Diggs all profile as 130+ target players. 

In the late rounds, I went after touchdowns and boom/bust players a little more. I also embraced some volatility by pairing J.J. Nelson with Carson Palmer and also not handcuffing any of my own running backs but rather others instead. Breshad Perriman is another boom/bust player.

I discounted tight ends a bit despite their 1.5 points-per-reception scoring because I felt I could get cheap receptions later in the draft at that position (and because I felt that with my wide receiver depth and Bell at the top, that I wouldn't end up flexing tight ends often anyway). Eric Ebron and Charles Clay project as players with heavy target volume, fulfilling the "cheap receptions" strategy.

At quarterback, with only one starter, I was fine waiting (as I typically do in any format). Matt Ryan should regress big time this year, but in Round 9, he felt like good value. Carson Palmer's early season schedule should allow for some big days too.

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.
Many responses here will likely focus on boom/bust players, but I like "band-aids" in best ball, especially ones whose big weeks are hard to predict. Pass-catching running backs tend to fall into this category, which is why I think I'll get more starts out of Round 14 pick Shane Vereen than many others will get from players selected in that same neighborhood. Prior to an injury-marred 2016 season, Vereen led the Giants backfield in snaps in 2015. The Giants are a solid bet to lead the NFL in pass attempts this season as well. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 
Here's a starting lineup of undervalued players so we hit each position: Andy Dalton; Ty Montgomery, Joe Mixon, and Danny Woodhead; Keenan Allen, Pierre Garcon, and Jeremy Maclin; Coby Fleener.

For our "bench," here are some deep sleepers worth grabbing a round or two ahead of current market price: DeShone Kizer, Shane Vereen, Ted Ginn, J.J. Nelson, Charles Clay.

Overall Strategy

Running Back Heavy

Best Pick(s)
Doug Baldwin 3.03, WR13.
After the running back, running back start John followed up his pick with taking one of the more consistent wide receivers at this draft slot. Baldwin should fit nicely as John’s number one receiver having both yardage and touchdown upside. John had to nail this as taking a receiver with a high bust potential would have made this situation volatile, but having Baldwin is a terrific pick.

Worst Pick(s)
Melvin Gordon 1.03 RB3
Melvin Gordon has a lot to like this year, but to take him third overall is just too early in this format. Gordon has missed time due to knee injuries in each of the last two seasons, and when he is playing he should have upside but to pass over the consistency of Antonio Brown is just a reach for a running back who only had 3.9 yards per carry last season.

Evaluation
John threw ADP out the window and was committed to a running back running back start in this draft by taking both Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette in the first two rounds but was able to make up for it by taking three solid wide receivers in rounds 3-5 balancing this team out nicely. John is going to need those recievers to come through for him as he only took three in the first ten picks, so he has one of the shallowest wide receiving group in the league but a very strong running back committee which he will need to fill the flex positions more weeks than not.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Running backs are less plentiful and generally offer the most stability. In this super flex format where up to four can be in your lineup, my plan was to hit the position hard out of the gate then load up on quantity at receiver later. My real hope was to grab Gordon at 1.03 and snag Elliot in the second. That worked for me in an earlier draft from the three hole but was not to be in this one. Fournette was my consolation prize in round two. By round three it was obvious several others had the same idea. Flexibility is vital to drafting so I decided to shift gears. Instead of a third or fourth back I decided to make up some lost ground at receiver for three rounds. 

Hunter Henry is a guy I have targeted all summer and with tight ends getting an extra half point per reception I grabbed him before getting back to the RB position. C.J. Anderson in round seven seemed like a steal and Rob Kelly in 8 could serve me well. Legarrette Blount is a great best ball pick that I was surprised to get so late. The weeks he puts up a stinker I get someone else in the lineup. 

Did it turn out as I planned? Not really but then it rarely does when drafting against these sharks. All in all I am happy with the team I picked though. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

In early rounds there is not much difference between managed and best ball. Everyone is going after the players we expect to produce every game. It's when the studs are gone that the strategy shifts a little. It's a PPR league so you can go for guys that are sure to get a fair number of opportunities and pretty much assure yourself of at least a few points; or you can fill your roster with swing for the fence guys. With such deep rosters most of us end up with at least a few of each regardless of our preference.  In this draft I ended up with a lot guys that will make at least some contribution on bad weeks while having 3-5 strong outings.  

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Jameis Winston, Melvin Gordon, Michael Crabtree, Hunter Henry and Tyler Boyd are the guys I seem to end up with in a lot of drafts. I think Winston is going to blow up this year. He has enough experience now, is in a good offensive scheme and the Buccaneers are loaded with receiving talent. 

I keep getting Gordon largely due to draft position but I see him as the distant fourth RB on the first tier. To me there is a significant drop off between Gordon who is a true feature back, and Freeman who is a stud, but shares the position with another excellent back. 

Crabtree to me, is the most underrated receiver in fantasy football. He has 164 receptions, 17 touchdowns and a pair of top twelve finishes in most formats over the past two seasons yet everyone treats him like a low end WR2. How I got him as the twenty third receiver off the board baffles me... but thank you!

Henry had 8 scores as a rookie playing behind Antonio Gates. Rookie tight ends just don't do that even when they are in the lead role. This year he and Gates have swapped roles which means a lot more targets from a quarterback that love to use his tight ends. 

Some people say Brandon LaFell is the Bengals number two receiver, others claim it is John Ross. Being a Bengals homer, I'm telling you Tyler Boyd is going to be the second leading WR this year. Ross is a deep threat that can't stay healthy and LaFell is a solid third or fourth receiver in the NFL. Boyd is another Marvin Jones, tall, fast, tough, excellent rout runner with great hands.  Sixty or so catches and half a dozen scores is pretty solid for a round 28 pick. I think Boyd will be in that area. 

Jeff Haseley - slot 4

Overall Strategy

Balance of High Ceiling and High Floor

Best Pick(s)
Corey Coleman, 14.09, WR60.
Jeff getting Corey Coleman in the 14th round is potentially the steal of the draft as Coleman is fighting to be the number one wide receiver in Cleveland and has tremendous upside heading into his second year. This is a player who looked very strong in his first two games last season prior to getting injured and has tremendous upside in the 14th round.

Worst Pick(s)
Derrick Henry, 4.09, RB18.
Taking Derrick Henry in the fourth round is a reach considering Jeff does not have a traditional running back one. Henry has tremendous upside and is likely a top 10 running back if Demarco Murray gets injured, but taking a fourth round pick who is only a top 30 running back if Murray does not go down is a big gamble for a fourth round pick.

Evaluation
Jeff did a nice job in the back half of the draft to compliment some of the risks that he took early on in the draft. Getting very safe players such as Danny Woodhead, Emmanuel Sanders, and Terrance West pair nicely with the risks that he took early with McCaffrey and Henry. If McCaffrey and Henry can pay off this is a team that could do extremely well this season.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Normally, I like to wait on quarterback, however when Tom Brady was available at pick 5.04 I jumped at the chance to get a consistent quarterback who can get me solid production each and every week. In best ball, that's what you want - consistent production with upside and a few players who will be constants every week. I generally like to draft a balanced team and by selecting Brady in the 5th round, I would need to make up for that position that I would've selected (likely wide receiver) had I not picked my Brady. Both Rex Burkhead and Corey Coleman, selected in the 13th and 14th round respectively give me that chance to have high upside players as depth pieces.

I also added a few handcuffs, which I like to do in best ball leagues - and it doesn't have to be a running back handcuff. One in particular is the tight end position on Houston. The Texans led the league with 115 receptions to tight ends last year. 104 of those went to C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. The duo also combined for 6 touchdowns. In best ball, it doesn't matter who you start, you simply receive the production from your entire roster to fill your starting lineup. I'll gladly take the Texans tight end production as a collective TE2 position, behind my TE1 Greg Olsen. If Olsen has a bad week, I have a safety valve from the Texans tight end duo. I added Ben Watson later on as a flier, who can be my TE3. I also drafted Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead from New England so I can stack them with Tom Brady and reap the benefits when one or more has success. If New England scores 30+ points a game, I like my chances that one or both of my backs could have a good game. Another duo I added was the combination of Carolina and NY Giants defense. If you look at their schedules, they tend to have an easier matchup when the other has a more difficult matchup. This gives me a good range of opportunity to thrive with one, nearly every week of the season. I also have both defenses ranked in the Top 10. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

I mentioned the Patriots in the first question and I'm completely on board with drafting 2 or 3 to stack your lineup with scoring opportunities. Other players who are good best ball fits are those that tend to reach the end zone who may not rack up a lot of receptions (or yards). The Panthers wide receivers come to mind here, namely Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Benjamin averages 8 touchdowns a year and Funchess 5.5. Funchess in particular isn't thought of as a top fantasy receiver, but when he scores any given week, it may be the difference that your point total needed. Players on high scoring offenses, like Atlanta, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, etc are always good investments in best ball. The more points scored, the greater chance that a player on that team will have success. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Here's my list:

Quarterback: Deshaun Watson - Love his running ability and scoring tendency from rushes. Combine that with average yardage and touchdown pass production and he's a Top 10 fantasy quarterback. 

Running Back: Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, DeAngelo Henderson - Christian McCaffrey is an obvious pick for interest level, but you can get similar production from Dalvin Cook and get him at a discount a round later. Kareem Hunt is going to see action this year, it's just a question of how much. So far, ball security and pass protection have been positive. He'll get on the field for sure and could see more reps/touches if Spencer Ware struggles to produce as the team's RB1. DeAngelo Henderson is someone to watch in Denver. C.J. Anderson doesn't have a stranglehold on the main role and Davontae Booker is recovering from a wrist injury. The door is open for Henderson to sneak in as the hot hand. 

Wide Receiver: DeVante Parker, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay - Parker could be the receiver we are all talking about after a few weeks into the season. His connection with Jay Cutler seems to be very real and we know Cutler likes to latch onto a particular receiver with his assets and abilities. Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay are two rookies who I believe will be key pieces to their respective team's offenses. Kupp is capable of playing the possession receiver role that Tavon Austin never could sustain. The Rams offense with the addition of Sean McVay calling plays to Sammy Watkins and Todd Gurley's rushing success will open up opportunities all over the field that Kupp can exploit. Kupp is a polished 24-year old rookie with football intelligence that exceeds some of the veterans on the team. He'll be used from the beginning and could wind up leading the team in receptions. 

Tight End: Zach Ertz - The trade of Jordan Matthews to Buffalo not only opens up the target shares to Alshon Jeffery, but Zach Ertz. In my opinion, Ertz should be considered anytime after the Top 4 or 5 tight ends go off the board. The best news is that you can wait a few rounds later and get him at a discount. 

 

John Mamula - slot 5

Overall Strategy

Balanced Roster

Best Pick(s)
Russell Wilson 7.05, QB4.
We all hear about waiting on quarterbacks, and getting Russell Wilson in the 7th round is tremendous value. What is even more exciting for John is that he got in at the perfect time sparking a quarterback run as eight quarterbacks were taken over the next two rounds. Wilson provides tremendous upside in this Best Ball format. John was able to get the guy he wanted at the perfect draft position as three quarterbacks were taken before he would have picked again.

Worst Pick(s)
DeAndre Hopkins 3.05 WR14
Hopkins continues to miss training camp due to a hand issue which at this point is beginning to become concerning especially as he needs the repetitions in practice to develop a chemistry with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. This is a concern that other players drafted in this round do not have especially after Hopkins is coming off of a down season in 2016.

Evaluation
Overall John did a nice job of balancing out his talent amongst all of the positions on his team. He does not have a weak point on this team and has a nice compliment of all of his backups having paths to being future starters. This is one of the teams to beat in this league. It is really difficult to find anything wrong with his draft.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

My strategy in a 28-round FPC Best Ball league is to target high-upside players capable of scoring multiple-touchdowns on any given Sunday. I was happy with my first 2 rounds (Odell Beckham Jr. and DeMarco Murray) as both of these players are featured on their respective offenses. In the third round, I was targeting Greg Olsen due to the 1.5 PPR for TE rule but Jeff sniped him one pick before me. I settled for DeAndre Hopkins and got my TE, Jimmy Graham, in the 4th round. I paired Graham up with Russell Wilson who I believe is superb value in the 7th round. In Best Ball leagues I like stacking a QB with either a WR or TE to maximize upside. I drafted Brandon Marshall with the intention of targeting Eli Manning but I waited one round too long as Chad got to him first. At backup QB, I was able to draft Deshaun Watson to stack with Hopkins and Tyrod Taylor to stack with Zay Jones. Both of these stacks can provide winning upside in a best ball league. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

I would rather target a high-upside rookie or player with some question marks rather than an old veteran. Think Dalvin Cook as compared to Frank Gore. You know what you are getting with Gore and the wheels can fall off at any time. Cook is more of a question mark at the RB position with upside potential. I also give a bump to players that are TD dependent at the WR position. A player such as Kelvin Benjamin doesn't catch many balls but he has a nose for the end zone. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

QB: Jameis Winston: The pieces are in place for Winston to excel and it would not surprise me if he finished in the Top 5 fantasy QBs this season. 
Ben Roethlisberger: If the Steelers offense stays healthy, Roethlisberger will have a career season. The schedule is very favorable for a fast start. (at Cleveland, Minnesota. at Chicago, at Baltimore)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (In a PPR League): McCaffrey will be involved in the offensive gameplan on a weekly basis and will be a star in the league. 
WR: Stefon Diggs (In a PPR League): Diggs is a target monster with 112 targets in only 14 games last season. 
Zay Jones: Someone has to catch the ball in Buffalo with Sammy Watkins be traded to the Rams. I'm expecting the rookie WR to make an impact this season. 
TE: Zach Ertz: Many have been waiting for Ertz to breakout over the past couple of seasons. Without Jordan Matthews in the mix, Ertz targets are going to be more consistent this season. 

B.J. Vanderwoude - slot 6