The Butterfly Effect: NBA Preview
The most difficult part about NBA lineup construction is working the lock before each slate begins. When a player is suddenly ruled inactive, the most common strategy is to look to his backup as a source of value, as the price and is set to receive meaningful playing time. That is not always the case though, as the NBA is much different than every other major DFS sport. Injuries can cause a push/pull effect on NBA teams, often changing the entire dynamic of a team’s offense. The Butterfly Effect, as it relates to the NBA, is the theory behind multiple positions either benefitting or suffering from the loss of one player. We will look several layers deeper than just the obvious fill-in player, and explain how the injury will impact individuals as well as a team’s offense as a whole.
The Butterfly Effect not only relates to injuries, but trades and coaching changes as well. I will be writing this article from both a proactive and reactive perspective, so not only will you know what roster moves to make when an injury occurs, but also how each player fits into their respective team’s game plan. Understanding skillsets and usage percentages are an integral part of succeeding in NBA GPP’s’ and cash games, as when one player is removed from the game plan, it usually has a domino effect on the rest of the players.
A prime example of the Butterfly Effect occurred during the 2015 NBA season and involved the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have a veteran core of Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and much of the offense was facilitated through Conley and Gasol. When they both went down with injuries, there was a wealth of opportunity for players to step up in their absence. Conley’s primary backup—Mario Chalmers—was given the keys to the offense, and as a pass-first point guard, he fit well in the Memphis scheme so the other Memphis players roles did not change much. However, when Chalmers went down with a season-ending injury, things really started to go haywire. Briante Weber and Ray McCallum were assigned point guard duties, but savvy owners who understand the Butterfly Effect knew that both Matt Barnes (SF) and Lance Stephenson (SF) would be used more in a Point-Forward capacity. As Barnes and Stephenson handled the ball more often on the perimeter, it created an opening in the post for both Randolph and JaMychal Green. As you can see, once Conley and Chalmers were removed from the game plan, the remaining players all saw their roles changed, which allowed players like Barnes, Stephenson, Green and Randolph to inherit more fantasy value.
As we look forward to the 2016 season, I’ve highlighted a few of the storylines where the Butterfly Effect plays a prominent role in determining the fantasy value of seemingly unaffected players.
Injuries
Milwaukee Bucks
Khris Middleton:
Primary Beneficiary: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Beneficiary: Jabari Parker
Middleton underwent surgery to repair a torn left hamstring, and will subsequently miss six months, effectively ending his season. Middleton was 37th in field goal attempts in 2015 and led the Bucks in both scoring and three-point percentage. For a shooting guard he handled the ball often on the perimeter, but when you watched the Bucks play, it was easy to see that his high volume of shots affected the flow of the offense and disrupted the growth of players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Greg Monroe. That is the silver lining of his injury, Antetokounmpo will now handle the ball in a Point-Forward role and he showed at the end of last year that he can excel in this role and distribute the ball effectively. He is a triple-double threat every time he laces it up, and that will help create more opportunities on the perimeter for players like Jabari Parker and Mathew Dellavedova. With Middleton out, Jabari Parker can now move to the wing, allowing the Bucks to hide his defensive deficiencies in pick and roll scenarios while simultaneously giving him more chances to take advantage of smaller and slower forwards. While Middleton is certainly considered a key piece for the Bucks moving forward, his absence will allow Parker, Monroe and Antetokounmpo to play more defined roles, and that will only help the Bucks moving forward.
New Orleans Pelicans
Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans
Primary Beneficiary: Langston Galloway, Tim Frazier, Buddy Hield
Secondary Beneficiary: Terrance Jones
It is no secret that the Pelicans have been looking for a long-term answer at the point guard position, after all, what better position to lock up when you have an all-world talent like Anthony Davis. The organization was committed to Jrue Holiday, but Holiday is dealing with life issues that are more important than basketball right now and has taken a leave of absence from the team. Tyreke Evans has developed a blood clot in his calf after having another surgery on his right knee. He is taking his recovery very slowly and a time table on his return has not been set. Evans and Holiday are important pieces to the Pelicans long term—and for Evans that could manifest itself as a draft pick or trade bait—but now they must move on with Langston Galloway and Tim Frazier running the point. Evans was a player that needed to have the ball in his hands to be effective, which did not mesh well with Anthony Davis. Galloway and Frazier on the other hand, are both pass-first point guards who can effectively run an offense, although neither has long term star power. The biggest beneficiary of these injuries are newly minted Pelicans, Terrance Jones and draft pick Buddy Hield. Jones can play power forward in lineups where Anthony Davis plays the center position, and that gives the Pelicans the flexibility to go small at the other three positions, which is a big reason why they drafted a shooter in Buddy Hield. After Ryan Anderson bolted in free agency, the Pelicans have no choice but to play Jones, and for the first time in his career, he will have a feature role in an offense. Galloway and Frazier will both get extended minutes at the point, and Hield will be able have open looks all day as defenses double team Davis in the post.
Coaching Changes
Minnesota Timberwolves
Primary Beneficiary: Karl-Anthony Towns, Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins
Secondary Beneficiary: Zach Lavine
The Tom Thibodeau era has officially begun in Minnesota, and it is an exciting time for a young team that is absolutely loaded with talent. Thibodeau brings structure to a team that has long been freelancing since Kevin Garnett left many years ago. His style of play is, well, grueling to say the least. Thibodeau stresses defense and efficiency, and while that may take a little while to fully catch on with some a young team, it will eventually play big dividends. So, who benefits from Thibodeau’s incoming style of play? Mainly, all the stars of the team, namely Karl Anthony Towns, Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Zach Lavine. Thibodeau has a habit of playing his starters extensive minutes, and that will be something new for a team that only had one player in the top 50 in terms of minutes played (Andrew Wiggins). Under Thibodeau, Jimmy Butler played the third most minutes in 2015, and played the most minutes of any NBA player in 2014. While Wiggins, Towns and Rubio all averaged over 30 minutes player per game, Lavine averaged only 28 minutes per game. He may not look like the most obvious beneficiary, but Lavine was an efficient fantasy player in his limited time on the court, so an increase in minutes means increased production.