Polarizing Players: Post NFL Draft Edition

Footballguys staffers Bob Harris and Gary Davenport look at the fantasy football fallout of the 2025 NFL Draft

Gary Davenport's Polarizing Players: Post NFL Draft Edition Gary Davenport Published 04/30/2025

© Columbus Dispatch-Imagn Images Polarizing Players

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have over 50 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and have won three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.

The 2025 NFL Draft has come and gone, and we now know where this year's top offensive prospects will begin their careers. In many instances, the draft went more or less as pundits expected, but there were most assuredly instances where it did not.

Just ask Shedeur Sanders.

Talent may be the most important factor in a young player's fantasy value, but situation and landing spot also have a significant impact. Now that we know who went where, Harris and Davenport have come together to examine how the draft impacted the value of the incoming rookie class.

Well, Harris did. Davenport just blathered like always.

Ward and Weak

To no one's surprise, Miami's Cam Ward was both the first overall pick of the Tennessee Titans and the first quarterback selected. However, just one more quarterback was chosen in Round 1—Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss to the New York Giants at No. 25.

Given that Ward should start right away, what do his fantasy prospects look like for 2025? Of the quarterbacks drafted outside Round 1, which one has the best chance of being fantasy-relevant in the next season or two?

Harris: As an immediate starter, Ward is of immediate interest in superflex dynasty formats. But even at that, he went with the fourth pick overall -- after Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and Tyler Warren (in a TE-premium scoring format) -- in a league I'm in that holds our rookie draft before the NFL Draft. It's possible that Ward would have moved ahead of Hampton and Warren had the drafters involved known their landing spots, but the fact that the Titans' new starter wasn't the 1.01 (and I think Jeanty going there will be the norm) says something.

I think Derek Carr has checked out in New Orleans, but we'll find out soon enough if the shoulder issue he's dealing with sidelines him all season. I think the Saints wouldn't mind that outcome. I realize Tyler Shough is old -- or at least older (he'll turn 26 in September). But the Saints had other options here, and it strikes me that Kellen Moore knows a thing or two about quarterbacks. Shough is big and mobile, has a quality arm, works the entire field, and understands coverages.

Either way, I agree with our colleague Jason Wood, who contends Shough is the most likely quarterback other than Ward to start more than 50 percent of his team's games this year.

Davenport: It's hard to argue with any of what Harris said about Ward—I expect he'll be the 1.02 in Superflex rookie drafts, but with all the offensive uncertainty in Tennessee (an iffy WR room, shaky offensive line and so on) enthusiasm regarding his prospects in one-QB leagues will likely be tempered. However, Ward's scrambling ability is a sizable boost to his fantasy value, and if the Titans use him properly and that (allegedly) upgraded line holds up, the youngster could surprise.

In the redraft rankings here at Footballguys, Ward is currently QB26, behind the likes of Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers but ahead of Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams. A low-end QB2 sounds about right, although again, Ward's ability as a rusher could potentially offer a higher fantasy ceiling than guys like Geno Smith of the Las Vegas Raiders.

I'm also in lockstep that Shough is the best bet among the rest of an admittedly blah rookie class to see significant playing time under center as a rookie—the Saints and Carr appear headed toward a messy divorce. But keep an eye on the muddied mess in Cleveland—I don't think Kenny Pickett will be on Cleveland's roster by Week 1, and it wouldn't be a huge upset if the Clowns decide to just roll out Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders over Joe Flacco's corpse.

Jeanty and the Jeantettes

Ashton Jeanty of Boise State was drafted sixth overall by the Las Vegas Raiders—the earliest that a back has been selected since Saquon Barkley in 2018.

Everyone expects Jeanty to be a star both in fantasy and the NFL, but which Day 2 running back has the best chance to join him in starting lineups this year? Is there a back whose landing spot gives you pause about their fantasy prospects?

Harris: Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson topped 1,000 yards during the Buckeyes' championship run. Judkins went with the 36th overall pick to the Cleveland Browns. Henderson landed two spots later, going to the Patriots.

With Nick Chubb still a free agent, the Browns had a need. They've now filled it. While Jerome Ford is still on the roster and the team added another promising rookie, fourth-round pick Dylan Sampson, Judkins profiles as a lead back. He should dominate the early-down carries for a Browns offense that will look to establish a strong rushing attack as they try to sort out their suddenly convoluted future at quarterback.

I'm sad that Henderson won't get a similar immediate path to a featured role in New England. He had two 1,000-yard seasons and another 900-yard season in college. I'm not saying Rhamondre Stevenson is an insurmountable obstacle, but I'm greedy. I would have preferred zero obstacles.

Davenport: This Browns fan was very happy when the Browns took Judkins, although that happiness lasted all of about a round, because Cleveland. He has a three-down skill-set, and at the risk of committing heresy, there's a little Nick Chubb to his game. He's my rookie RB2 behind Jeanty this year, and an argument can be made for ranking him ahead of Omarion Hampton in dynasty, too.

Fantasy managers should also be delighted by Iowa's Kaleb Johnson landing with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Round 3. The Steelers had an obvious need in the backfield after Najee Harris' departure, and while Johnson is a similarly punishing runner as Harris, he's more explosive and is familiar with the zone-running scheme Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith prefers. Harris was at least a fantasy RB2 all four years in Pittsburgh, with two top-15 finishes in fantasy points. Johnson should be able to at least match that production—and could exceed it.

Harris already mentioned that the Browns also added Tennessee's Dylan Sampson on Day 3 of the draft. Sampson was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year in 2024 and tied a Volunteers record with 22 rushing scores. He has evoked comparisons to Brian Westbrook. But given the respective draft capital spent on first Judkins and then Sampson and Judkins' workhorse skill-set, Sampson faces an uphill battle to be more than just a change-of-pace back on what could be a struggling offense. If you drafted him in dynasty formats before the NFL draft, condolences.

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Wide-Open Wideouts

In the non-Travis Hunter category, Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan was the first wide receiver drafted, taken by the Carolina Panthers at No. 8.

Which wideout was the biggest winner of the 2025 NFL Draft from a fantasy perspective? Which pass-catchers' landing spots left much to be desired for fantasy managers?

Harris: Jack Bech was considered a late Day 3 pick when the 2024 season started. But after becoming only the fifth TCU player to have a 1,000-yard receiving season, Bech, who showed smooth, precise routes and impeccable hands throughout last season, lands in an offense with only Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers locked into roles ahead of him.

Yes, I realize those roles are robust. But the path to playing time is undoubtedly there for Bech.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers didn't necessarily need a receiver. Still, absent any other glaring needs, they opted to plan for a not-too-distant future without receiver Mike Evans by adding Ohio State's Egbuka. Receiver Chris Godwin is coming off a serious ankle injury, but the Buccaneers re-signed him in free agency, and early indications are that the recovery is on track.

So, I'm not big on Egbuka's short-term outlook, although I'll invest with abandon in Dynasty.

Davenport: I don't want to talk about Egbuka. The future is as bright as ever, but for the highest-floor, most NFL-ready receiver in the entire class to land on a team where's likely the WR3 in 2025 was—not ideal.

McMillan's landing spot in Carolina might not have been perfect, but it was pretty favorable—and depending on how much time Hunter spends in the defensive backfield this season, the former Arizona star has a real chance to be the No. 1 fantasy wideout in 2025. McMillan surpassed 1,300 receiving yards each of the past two seasons, Bryce Young showed real improvement over the second half of last season, and his biggest competitors for targets this year are the (nearly) 57-year-old Adam Thielen and the underwhelming youngster Xavier Legette.

The Green Bay Packers broke a two-decade (plus) streak of not taking a wide receiver in Round 1 when they selected Matthew Golden of Texas 23rd overall, and then doubled down on the position when they took TCU's Savion Williams toward the end of Round 3.

Golden's sub-4.3-second speed is going to make him popular with fantasy managers, and with Christian Watson out indefinitely, some are projecting Golden will become the WR1 in Green Bay in short order. But even with Watson laid up, the wide receiver room in Titletown is crowded, and the team's top fantasy wideout in 2024 (Jayden Reed) barely cracked the top-30 in PPR points. Golden's likely going to be drafted earlier than I'm comfortable taking him this season.

Tight End Twosome

There was something of a surprise at tight end in Round 1, with Michigan's Colston Loveland going ahead of Penn State's Tyler Warren.

Which of the top two tight ends will have the biggest fantasy impact in 2025, and is there another rookie tight end fantasy managers should keep in the back of their minds moving forward?

Harris: Ben Johnson leaned heavily on two TE sets in Detroit, so Loveland and veteran holdover Cole Kmet will likely see a lot of time together. Fellow Footballguy Dave Kluge contends that a receiving corps boasting Loveland, Kmet, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze allows Johnson to create mismatches on defenders and play up-tempo with the same grouping. Rookie WR Luther Burden III adds to that, but I'm worried about the diluted targets.

That said, Warren's landing spot with Indianapolis raises concerns. Neither Anthony Richardson nor Daniel Jones inspires great confidence as passers, and head coach Shane Steichen's offense has done nothing to elevate pass catchers like Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, or Adonai Mitchell.

Loveland was going as TE13 in pre-NFL Draft best balls; Warren was going as TE7. If I take a chance on one of the two, I'll choose the cheapest.

Beyond that, I like Mason Taylor as a player, and his landing spot with the Jets gives him a reasonably clear path to workload with a quarterback, Justin Fields, who doesn't have many high-end targets beyond Garrett Wilson.

Davenport: Once again, I have to agree with Harris here. I had Warren ranked ahead of Loveland before this year's draft. But Warren's landing spot in Indianapolis was poo—there were over two dozen tight ends who had more receiving yards individually last year than the Colts had as a team in 2024. And the Anthony Richardson/Daniel Jones quarterback competition ain't gonna help that.

I also tend to agree that Taylor landed in an advantageous position with the Jets—in fact, I wouldn't be stunned if Taylor out-points both Warren and Loveland in PPR leagues in 2025, although the stretch of rookies finishing as the No. 1 tight end overall in fantasy football likely ends this season.

Also, keep an eye on Harold Fannin Jr. in Cleveland this year. Fannin caught 117 passes and topped 1,500 yards last year at Bowling Green, and the Browns didn't address their need at wide receiver in the draft. There could be a lot of 12-personnel run in Cleveland this year, and if that's the case, Fannin could see a solid target share as a rookie.

Planting the Flag

We're going to change things up a bit with the post-draft edition of Planting the Flag. Which player drafted on the third and final day of the 2025 draft has the best chance to make a sizable fantasy dent this season?

Harris: Cam Skattebo was the running back remaining heading into Day 3. He was the pre-draft RB6 on the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide 2.0 Running Back Rankings. He also landed on the team with his best opportunity for playing time.

The Giants had Tryone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary as their two running backs last season. According to Pro Football Focus, the Giants earned the fourth-fewest rushing yards from their running backs at 1,307 and the third-fewest first downs at 64. One of the Giants' problems has been their offensive line, where four-fifths of their line had a PFF run-blocking grade of 67.0 or lower last season.

Skattebo is the perfect back for that kind of offensive line, as he was one of the best running backs on non-perfectly blocked runs and one of the best at converting first downs.

There is a chance Skattebo becomes the Giants' lead running back sooner rather than later.

Davenport: Skattebo's a good pick, but in the interest of offering our readers maximum (snicker) value, I'll hit a different player.

It was something of a surprise in the eyes of some when Stanford wide receiver Elic Ayomanor lasted until Day 3—the 6-2, 206-pounder potentially has everything NFL teams look for in a boundary wideout, including 4.44-second speed. Ayomanor may have fallen farther than some expected, but landing in Tennessee could mean a decent number of targets in his first season.

If Cam Ward turns out to be a thing, Ayomanor may be as well.

Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.

Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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