RELATED: See 4 Free-Agent Movers With Sleeper Appeal here.
This is a time of great optimism--both for NFL fans and for fantasy managers.
With free agency nearing a month old and the 2025 NFL draft just over two weeks away, NFL teams are re-making themselves ahead of the season to come. For some, that means just a tweak here and there. For others that means a complete overhaul. But whether they are just polishing things up or attempting a more thorough rebuild, the goal for all 32 teams remains the same--get better ahead of Green Bay and the draft.
Of course, scores of players changing teams doesn't just have a seismic impact on the NFL itself--the fantasy football fortunes of players on the move can also be altered in a major way. If fantasy value is a combination of talent and situation, then throwing the latter into a blender is going to make a difference.
For some players, that difference is a positive one. Maybe it's finally a chance for a wide receiver or running back to be "the guy." Perhaps it's a matter of improved weapons for a quarterback. But whatever the reason, changing teams is a good thing.
But while a free-agent move can most assuredly be a positive for a player's checking account (and that of his agent), some guys aren't as fortunate from a fantasy perspective. The players around them decrease in quality. Their position on the depth chart becomes more tenuous.
The why doesn't really matter. All that does is that their fantasy value took a sizable hit.
And the bust alarms have started to sound.
QB Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders
Smith was one of the first big personnel moves of 2025--after three seasons as the starter for the Seattle Seahawks, Smith was flipped to the Raiders for a third-round pick and then signed to a two-year, $75 million contract extension. Smith will turn 35 in October, but while speaking to reporters, Raiders head coach Pete Carroll said he has no doubts that Smith can be a long-term answer under center in Sin City.
"The guy sat for almost six years and didn't get the wear and tear," Carroll said. "So that's why he moves so well. When it came time to get to it, it was automatic that we would take a shot at [Smith]. Fortunately, Seattle was willing to listen, and John Spytek [made] his first big time deal. We pulled it off exactly in the manner that we wanted to. [Smith] gives us a great kick start to what's going on."
Smith may well turn out to be a good get for a Raiders team that had a gaping void at quarterback after rolling out Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell last year. And Smith produced top-12 fantasy numbers in two of three seasons in Seattle, including a QB5 fantasy finish in 2022. But outside second-year tight end Brock Bowers, the pass-catchers in Vegas aren't giving any opposing defensive coordinators nightmares, and the Raiders have produced all of one top-12 fantasy season from a quarterback in the past two decades.
RB Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
There wasn't much to cheer about in Dallas in 2024, but Dowdle's fifth professional season was a bright spot--after playing sparingly his first four years in Dallas, Dowdle eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground a year ago, averaging a rock-solid 4.6 yards per carry. Now in Carolina, Dowdle told reporters he looks forward to running behind the Panthers' improved offensive line.
"That's something you look at, at the offensive line, evaluate it like, 'OK, yeah, those guys are doing that, you know, they're pretty good,'" Dowdle said. "So when I knew I was coming here, I started doing my research and stuff on the O-line, seeing all the positive on it and how they've built it up these past couple years. So definitely was intriguing to see. With those guys up front, I've watched a little bit of film already, and those guys, they pretty much run mid-zone, similar to what—we ran outside-zone in Dallas."
The problem is that, barring injury, Dowdle isn't going to sniff the 235 carries he had with Dallas in 2024. Chuba Hubbard is coming off a 1,000-yard season of his own with the Panthers, and while Hubbard was handed a four-year, $33.2 million extension last year in Carolina, Dowdle joined the Panthers on a one-year deal worth less than $3 million.
Like Chumbawamba, it appears that Dowdle is a one-hit wonder.
WR Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks
It has been a rough ride for Kupp since his record-setting 2021 campaign--18 missed games over the past three years, zero 1,000-yard seasons and his walking papers from the Los Angeles Rams this past offseason. Kupp landed on his feet, inking a three-year, $45 million deal with the Seahawks. But ESPN's Seth Walder has his doubts as to whether we will ever see the old Kupp again.
"ESPN's player tracking-based receiver scores tell a clear story of a receiver in decline," he said. "Kupp's overall score was an 85 in 2021 and has dropped every year since to 23 last season. Similarly, the most important trait -- open score -- has dropped from 76 in 2021 to 37 in 2024. He has been known for his blocking, which presumably was appealing to the Seahawks in their potentially run-heavy system under Klint Kubiak. There are some questions of fit with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle's emerging star receiver. Last season, Kupp aligned as a wide receiver just 38% of the time -- Smith-Njigba did it only 20% of the time. Maybe it will be fine, but Smith-Njigba was one aspect Seattle's new offense had going for it, and I'd hesitate to put his production at risk."
Kupp all but disappeared from the Rams offense late in the 2024 season—over his last five regular-season games, the 31-year-old eclipsed 30 receiving yards in a game just once. Kupp is a declining player who will play second fiddle to Smith-Njigba on a new-look Seattle offense that has its share of questions with Sam Darnold under center behind a porous offensive line.
Even so-so fantasy WR3 numbers may be wishful thinking in 2025.
WR DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the reasons the Seahawks signed Kupp was the departure of Metcalf, who was shipped to Pittsburgh for a second-round pick after the 27-year-old requested a trade out of Seattle. The seventh-year veteran reportedly preferred to be dealt to a warm-weather team with a settled quarterback situation, but Metcalf refuted those reports while addressing the media.
"Yeah, man, we never said none of that," Metcalf said. "Me and my team never said, 'Warm city, a contender.' None of that, man. We just took the trade request and moved forward with the teams that really showed interest. They showed interest from Day 1 and we just built on the relationship that we had from the first conversation."
Yes, Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers have been spotted working out together, and the latter would certainly help a highly unsettled quarterback situation in the Steel City. But even if Rodgers does put down the ayahuasca long enough to join Pittsburgh, he's a 41-year-old quarterback who hasn't truly looked like Aaron Rodgers in a few years. Add in that Rodgers has long been a quarterback who favors precise route-running and Metcalf is more of an improvisational player, and chemistry could be an issue.
If Rodgers spurns the Steelers and it's Mason Rudolph at quarterback in 2025?
Yeah, that's not ideal either.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.