The Perils of Chasing Ghosts in IDP Leagues

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Chasing Ghosts - That's the term FSWA Hall of Famer Greg Kellogg used to coin one of the easiest pitfalls to fall into in fantasy football.

Yes, I'm aware that others may have used the term before that. But he was the first person I heard use it, so I'm giving him some run. Let's not get distracted by semantics.

It happens each and every year. Player A has a huge season. Player A sees his average draft position spike the following season. Player A then goes on to disappoint big-time, causing consternation and rage among the fantasy managers who drafted him. Teeth are gnashed. Remotes are thrown.

The thing is, we should have seen the drop coming from a mile away. Sure, some breakout seasons are the beginning of an ascent into stardom. But just as many are buoyed by an unsustainable spike in big plays or touchdowns. Or a perfect storm of circumstance. Or an injury to a player around that surprise star or even ahead of them on the depth chart.

Those are the ghost seasons. And while sometimes fantasy managers see them as the mirage they are, other times the illusion is just too alluring.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles finishing third among quarterbacks in fantasy points in 2016. Harry Douglas of the Atlanta Falcons catching 85 passes and topping 1,000 yards in 2013. Peyton Hillis of the Cleveland Browns and his now-infamous RB2 finish in 2010.

What? I'm old. And I hold grudges.

Ghost seasons aren't confined to the offensive side of the ball. There is no shortage of examples among IDP as well.

Over Alex Highsmith's first two seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the edge-rusher logged eight sacks. When he exploded for 14.5 sacks and a league-leading five forced fumbles on the way to a DL6 fantasy finish in 2022, more than a few fantasy managers thought the lightbulb had come on—that opposite a healthy T.J. Watt the sky was the limit a year ago. Instead, Highsmith's sack production fell by more than half, and he dropped outside the top 20.

It can be argued we have been chasing ghosts with Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White for years now. In 2020, White tallied nine sacks and was the highest-scoring linebacker in fantasy football. The following season the big plays dried up and he barely finished inside the top-20. His tackle numbers have dropped every season since.

And defensive backs? That position has more ghosts than Aokigahara Forest. Two years ago, Jacksonville's Rayshawn Jenkins piled up 116 total stops and half a dozen takeaways and finished among the top-five defensive backs in fantasy football. A year ago, Jenkins eclipsed 100 stops again, but (wait for it) the big plays weren't there, and the 30-year-old fell outside the top-25.

So how do we know when apparitions are afoot? When a player's breakout is Fool's Gold and not the ascension of an elite IDP like Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun?

Well, for starters, here's a news flash—sometimes we don't. In the interest of full disclosure, when Oluokun joined the Jaguars after a career-high (and NFL-leading) 192 stops with the Atlanta Falcons in his fourth pro season with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021, this analyst had his doubts about whether that sort of statistical success would carry over to Jacksonville.

Yeah, um—it did.

The thing is, Oluokun is more the exception than the rule in situations like that, even after posting 117 total tackles in his first full year as a starter the year before. If a linebacker who has never had 120 tackles in a season posts 150-plus, or a safety who has never topped 80 stops suddenly sails past 100, a question has to be asked.

Why?

How long has Mr. Breakout been in the league? The shorter the amount of time, the better—the lightbulb coming on for a third-year player getting more playing time is easier to buy as sustainable than a seventh-year veteran whose huge year could have been more due to the circumstances around him than his own talent. Contract-year players also merit further scrutiny—the history of the NFL is littered with players who posted one big season, got a nice payday in free agency and then vanished.

See Haynesworth, Albert—there's a reason his seven-year, $100 million abomination of a deal with Washington is considered one of the worst free-agent contracts ever awarded. He had 8.5 sacks in 2008—and 6.5 sacks the rest of his career.

That's another considerable red flag—spike seasons in the big-play department. Yes, edge-rushers like T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns are incredible talents who have shown the ability to considerably post a dozen-plus sacks, but the reality is those talents are rare. For every Watt there are two Michael Johnsons. Johnson played a decade in the NFL with the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was a solid strong-side end. But after logging 52 tackles and 11.5 sacks in the fourth season of that career, he never topped five sacks again and hit the 50-tackle mark just once.

Again, I'm old. You'd think all the Seinfeld references in my columns would be a tip-off.

The big-play bugaboo is all the more prevalent with defensive backs. It really doesn't matter how good a defensive back is—interceptions are a fluky stat. The list of cornerbacks and safeties who can pick off passes with regularity from year to year is a short one. And even the ones who have can let IDP managers down at the drop of a hat. Chicago Bears safety Kevin Byard III has picked off at least four passes in half his eight NFL seasons. Last year in his first season in the Windy City—one, although a career-high 122 tackles salvaged DB2 numbers.

Folks, there is no chance that Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland is going to score five touchdowns again this year. In fact, it's far more likely he scores exactly zero.

There's a final potential category of ghosts—the most ancient of spirits. The over-the-hill gang. I'm as big a proponent of drafting veteran players as you'll find—ageism is alive and well in fantasy football, and older players can often be had at a position of value. But you have to measure the risk of value vs. a player succumbing to the inevitable—New Orleans Saints edge-rusher Cameron Jordan was a reliable IDP performer for over a decade. But last year, in his age-34 season, the wheels came off—Jordan's two sacks in 2023 were his fewest since his rookie season in 2011.

Sadly, some ghosts are going to sneak past even the most diligent of IDP managers. And some players we think will qualify will go on to back up their breakout like Oluokun did. But by looking past the numbers a player put up the year before and examining why those stats were posted, IDP managers can guard themselves against one-year wonders who fall flat the following campaign.

And then you won't be afraid of no ghost.

IDP Ghost Candidates for 2024

Each of the following players had a career season in 2023. And each raises at least some concern that repeating that success could be easier said than done.