Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Dallas vs NY Giants
Rico Dowdle continues to be a nice surprise for Dallas. This unit struggled to get anything going the first several weeks of the season, but Dowdle has run for over 50 yards in three of his last four games and four of his last six, with the only two teams holding him under that number being elite run-stopping units Detroit and Houston in blowout game scripts. Last week, Dowdle had 86 yards on 19 carries as he was a critical piece in the Cowboys' upset victory against Washington. A big question heading into Week 13 is the health of Zach Martin, who is questionable heading into this week with an ankle injury. If he's unable to play, Dallas will turn to inexperienced guard Brock Hoffman, who did play last week but has minimal experience after being an undrafted third-year player. Martin is the veteran on this offensive line who is already starting two rookies at left tackle and center, so if he were to miss, it would be a downgrade this week.
The Giants looked like a team that had very much quit last week against Tampa Bay. After being disgruntled regarding the benching and release of Daniel Jones and the team moving to Tommy DeVito, the team had some poor tackling efforts as the Buccaneers' running backs ran for 127 yards and three touchdowns against this defense. The issue for the Giants continues to be the poor play of their front seven. This unit was designed to rush the passer, which it has done very well this season, but along the defensive line, there are massive gaps as Rakeem Nuñez-Roches and D.J. Davidson continue to struggle to stop the run. At linebacker, Bobby Okereke is an excellent blitzing linebacker but struggles to have gap integrity to make consistent solo tackles as he has just 42 solo tackles and 41 assists, which is not a ratio you want to see out of your leading tackler as you typically would want this to be above 60% instead of closer to 50%. Since Week 7, the Giants' run defense has collapsed, allowing 161 rushing yards per game. Three of the five teams that the Giants have faced have had running backs who have topped 100 yards, with only Tampa Bay last week (Bucky Irving had 87) and a Washington committee of Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, and Jeremy McNichols failing to have a running back top 100 yards. The combination of lack of motivation and lack of talent will make it difficult for the Giants to stop anyone at the moment.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tampa Bay's rushing attack continues to be one of the better units in the NFL, but it is still a frustrating one for fantasy players. However, we alluded to this possibility last week that a change could be coming to the pure committee for Tampa Bay, and for the first time all season, Bucky Irving had more snaps than Rachaad White. Irving continues to impress in his rookie season, as he had 12 carries for 87 yards last week and is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry over his last two games. Meanwhile, despite the favorable matchup against the Giants last week, White had just 37 yards on 12 carries, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. As the season continues to progress, it would seem likely that the Buccaneers need to ride the hot hand in Irving, as he's just the better running back at the moment.
Carolina, under Dave Canales, is still playing extremely hard, and at this point of the season, we see varying levels of effort. Last week was one of their better performances, as they held Kareem Hunt to just 68 yards on 16 carries, which played a critical role in having a close three-point loss to the Chiefs. The Panthers have been the worst run-stopping unit in 2024, as they lead the NFL in rushing yards to opposing running backs (129) and rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs (1.3 per game). The issue for the Panthers continues to be a lack of talent and injuries. This is a rebuilding defense that lost its two best run-stoppers, Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson, for the year. Along the defensive line, there continue to be issues as Deshawn Robinson, LaBryan Ray, and Shy Tuttle have all struggled to stop the run. Having a struggling defensive line with a linebacker group that does not have a lead tackler makes life difficult for any defense. Safety Xavier Woods leads the team in tackles and has been a solid safety valve preventing the long runs, but there are just too many consistent 5-10-yard gains against this defense.
Indianapolis at New England
Indianapolis' rushing offense has been one of the most disappointing units in the NFL lately. Despite early season success, Jonathan Taylor has now failed to top more than 60 yards in three of his last four games, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry in those four games. However, when healthy, Taylor has shown that he has as much upside as any running back in the NFL, as he has four 100-yard performances this season. The Colts offensive line has been ravaged with injuries. They're going to be without center Ryan Kelly, who was placed on IR along with right guard Will Fries, both injured earlier this season, but the big question heading into Week 13 is the health of left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who has not played since Week 10. Raimann is one of the league's best young left tackles, and if they were able to get him back, it would be a significant upgrade compared to rookie Matt Goncalves. This could be a get-right game for the Colts this week when they face the Patriots, as they need a win to stay competitive in the AFC South.
New England received good news that Jabrill Peppers was removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List this week. While it would seem unlikely that Peppers will play this week given the short turnaround, having his return imminent would be a big boost for this defense, which desperately needs the run-stopping safety. Since Peppers went out, New England has allowed 127 rushing yards per game, which is third in the NFL. The Patriots built this defense around veteran linebackers to help supplement their rebuilding unit, but it just didn't work this season. Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley was lost for the year in Week 2, while Raekwon McMillan was released in Week 9 after being benched due to poor play in Week 6. This has left the Patriots with several holes along their defense as they rely on linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Christian Elliss, who have been career backup-type players. Along the defensive line, the Patriots had hoped that Christian Barmore would provide a significant boost to this defense as the Patriots signed him to a massive $21M per year extension this offseason. He has missed most of the season with blood clots, but in his two games back, he has struggled to make the dominating impact we've become accustomed to seeing from defensive linemen. Things are trending in the right direction, especially if Peppers can return this week, but they need to put together a few good performances before they can start to be trusted.
New England vs Indianapolis
New England's rushing offense has been abysmal but hit a new low point last week as Rhamondre Stevenson had just eight carries for 13 yards. After dominating the snaps for New England for the last several weeks, Stevenson only saw 42% of the snaps and was outsnapped by Gibson, who had 43% last week. That likely is due to the game script, as the Patriots fell behind early last week, but Stevenson is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry over his last six games. The offensive line for New England certainly is not helping matters, as Footballguys Offensive Line Expert Matt Bitonti has this unit ranked 31st this season. Stevenson will likely get at least one more opportunity to start the game as the lead back in New England. But he will need to get off to a strong start, or we could see Antonio Gibson again have a larger role.
The Colts are trending in the wrong direction. The overall vibes of this team continue to be poor as Pat McAfee came out and publicly called out issues in this locker room this week with players, such as "missing treatment, being late to team meetings, and saying they don't work hard." On the season, Indianapolis allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. This team started slow, allowing 150 yards to Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs in each of the first two weeks, but did show some signs of improvement from Weeks 3 to 7. Since Week 8, however, they've allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, are allowing 105 rushing yards per game, which is seventh in the NFL, and every running back they've faced has at least 60 yards against them. This is a veteran-filled defense with linebackers E.J. Speed, Zaire Franklin, Grover Stewart, and DeForest Buckner. Now that the season has slipped away from them at 5-7, it would seem extremely unlikely that there is any level of improvement for a defense that gets called out nationally for all of the locker room issues they have.
Detroit vs Chicago
Detroit's rushing attack continues to be one of the best in the NFL as they use the "Sonic and Knuckles" backfield approach with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to carve through defenses. Detroit is fourth this season in team rushing yards with 151 per game, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Helping matters in Detroit is the offensive line, which is the best in the NFL, according to Footballguys Offensive Line Expert Matt Bitonti. This is a veteran unit led by center Frank Ragnow, right guard Kevin Zeitler, and right tackle Penei Sewell all are having All-Pro seasons. The big question this week is the health of veteran left tackle Taylor Decker, who is questionable. He's optimistic that he will play, but the team has downplayed that a little bit. On a short week against the Bears, the Lions should be able to survive with Dan Skipper at left tackle, so it would be a good sign if Decker is able to go as that would mean he would be close to 100% health as there's no reason to risk it this week. David Montgomery is also questionable for this game, although he seems more likely to play than Decker. If this game gets out of hand, you could see more Gibbs this week than normal.
The Bears' defense is a team that was largely built to stop the pass while investing in their linebackers to make up for their issues along the defensive line. The issue here is that both T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, who were brought in to be run-stoppers, are having their worst seasons in their career, stopping the run. On the year, Chicago is allowing 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and while it is a unit that has not allowed a running back to run for more than 110 yards, most running backs they've faced have had success as eight running backs this season have topped 70 yards. It looks like Chicago will be without Elijah Hicks once again this week after the safety missed last week's game. Hicks would be the second safety that the team would be without, as Jaquan Brisker was placed on IR earlier this year. The Bears would be down to Jonathan Owens, who did have eight tackles last week but has primarily been a special teams player for Chicago this season.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Las Vegas at Kansas City
Las Vegas' rushing attack continues to be a mess. Last week, we saw the combination of Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick split carries, while Abdullah had 90% of the snap workload as McCormick carried the ball eight times that he was on the field. This week, Zamir White looks doubtful to return as he did not practice on Tuesday, while the team may get Alexander Mattison back as he was a limited participant on Tuesday. If Mattison were to return, it likely would not improve much for this Raiders offense as they'll be without Gardner Minshew II and will start Aidan O'Connell, who is returning from a broken thumb. Mattison has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry this season as none of the Raiders running backs have found any success running the ball in 2024. ‘This is a unit that you should have low expectations for, but if Mattison was the lone back here, you might be able to get 12-14 carries with a couple of catches. In the team's first meeting, Mattison had 14 carries for just 15 yards but did add five receptions for 29 yards.
Kansas City is not winning impressively, but their run defense continues to be the best in the NFL this season, and it's a big reason they're 10-1 in the year. Kansas City is on record watch, as they're allowing just 53 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the lowest since Footballguys began tracking the stat in 2001. No running back has topped 60 yards against this defense in 2024, all while facing some of the league's best running backs in Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson. Chuba Hubbard came close to topping the 60 yards last week, as he finished with 58, which tied Jordan Mason for the season-high against this defense. Kansas City is the perfect combination of Steve Spagnuolo's scheme and the league's best defensive lineman, Chris Jones, who creates matchup nightmares for all defenses. As a linebacker, Kansas City has run-stopping specialists in Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill, making this unit almost impossible to run against.
Philadelphia at Baltimore
Saquon Barkley is on a completely different level than every other running back in the NFL at the moment. This is the league's best running back running behind the second-best offensive line in the NFL, according to Footballguys offensive line expert Matt Bitonti. Barkley has topped 100 yards in five of his last six games, including four topping 140 yards. Last week, we saw a different level as he had 255 yards rushing and two touchdowns against the Rams as the Eagles leveraged Barkley en route to their 37-20 victory. Along the offensive line, the Eagles have the best tackle combination in football, as Jordan Mailata has been outstanding this season and has had a big boost since returning from injury in Week 11. At right tackle, veteran Lane Johnson continues to play at an extremely high level, even at 34 years old. The interior of this offensive line is extremely talented as the guards Mekhi Becton and Landon Dickerson, albeit inexperienced as Becton is a converted tackle while Dickerson is in his third season. Jalen Hurts' rushing ability provides a dynamic threat to this offense, as Hurts has run for at least 35 yards in each of his last five games and is averaging 11.4 carries per game.
Baltimore's defense continues to shut down almost every running back they face. Even without All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith, Baltimore held the Chargers to just 54 rushing yards on 16 carries, as Malik Harrison had a career-high 13 tackles. It's uncertain whether Smith will be able to go in Week 13, but despite Harrison's breakout performance, the Ravens' defense will see a significant improvement if Smith is able to play. The Ravens are a defense that relies on their massive defensive line led by defensive tackle Travis Jones to clog space and prevent offensive linemen from getting downfield making life easy for the linebackers to not have to shed blocks. While the team suffered a critical injury earlier this season, with 350-pound Michael Pierce being placed on IR, there has not been a significant drop-off, primarily due to Jones. If there is one hole in this defense, it could be at the safety position. The team has benched Marcus Williams the past two weeks and has relied on Ar'Darius Washington in an attempt to improve the pass defense. Washington is not a run-stopper at all, as he's 5'8 180 pounds, which is going to be problematic if he's forced to try to tackle Saquon Barkley in open space this week. At the other safety position, Kyle Hamilton continues to be one of the best run-stopping safeties in the NFL, so the Ravens will need a big game from him this week.
Chicago at Detroit
The Bears have struggled to consistently run the ball over the last four weeks as they're looking much closer to the team of the start of the season rather than being able to build off of the success they had from Weeks 4-7. Over the last four games, D'Andre Swift has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, has just one touchdown, and has not had more than 75 rushing yards in a game, averaging just 53 per contest. It has been a compound of errors for the Bears, whether it is a game script, difficult matchups such as last week against Minnesota, a rotating offensive line that seemingly can't stay healthy, a new offensive coordinator, or defenses forcing the Bears to throw the ball with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Overall, it has led to a struggling rushing offense. The Bears had hoped they would be able to get starting left guard Ryan Bates back this week after he has dealt with multiple injuries keeping him out for most of the season, but he will miss another week after only playing in three games thus far this year which will force Teven Jenkins to get another start. Jenkins has been serviceable, and the entire offensive line has been better than expectations this season, but it is still is a bottom-tier unit this year.
Despite losing linebacker Alex Anzalone, who was placed on IR in Week 11, Detroit's defense completely shut down Jonathan Taylor in their first game without Anzalone. Detroit held Taylor to just 35 yards on 11 carries, and they've now held Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr., and Joe Mixon all under 50 yards over the last three weeks. This is a unit that is built to stop the run. Their two massive defensive tackles, Alim McNeill and DJ Reader, free up the rest of the defense, who have elite run-stoppers at every level. At linebacker, Malcolm Rodriguez is a run-stopping specialist while Jack Campbell has shown tremendous growth in his second season after being a first-round pick in 2023. At safety, Detroit may have the best safety tandem in the NFL, as Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph are both elite All-Pro level players, and both players can slide into the box and create defensive mismatches in the Nickel formation. Overall, despite the loss of Anzalone and Aidan Hutchinson earlier this season, this is a unit that is as difficult to run the ball as any in the NFL.
Washington vs Tennessee
The Commanders received good news: Brian Robinson Jr. will practice on Wednesday despite dealing with an ankle injury. This is critical, as Austin Ekeler is extremely unlikely to play this week after suffering a devastating concussion last week. While Robinson is going to practice, he's still in a "wait-and-see," according to Dan Quinn. If he's unable to go, Jeremy McNichols would likely see the bulk of the work. McNichols has been fine as a change-of-pace type running back, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, including two 25+ yard carries this year. However, he's 28 years old, and despite being in the NFL since 2017, he has never had more than 50 carries in a season as he's primarily been a special teams player. McNichols, at 5-9 214 pounds, has the overall profile to be a primary ball carrier. Chris Rodriguez Jr. would also get some work if Robinson were to miss, but McNichols would be the player you would want to target.
Tennessee found a steal in the second round of the 2024 NFL draft with T'Vondre Sweat. The massive 365-pound defensive tackle has boosted this run defense, creating one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and he is paired alongside former All-Pro Jeffery Simmons. This defensive line is the backbone of this run defense, as there are significant holes at linebacker with Kenneth Murray Jr., who throughout his career has been one of the league's worst run-stoppers, while Jerome Baker is still getting acclimated to the team as he has played in just two games since being traded to the Titans. On the year, only one running back has run for over 65 yards against this defense, which was Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 8. He did it on one 70-yard carry, finishing with 127 yards for the day. Last week, Tennessee completely shut down the red-hot Joe Mixon, holding him to just 22 yards on 14 carries, which was likely their best performance of the season. This defense allows just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and, despite facing a lot of negative game scripts due to their poor offense, has yet to falter outside of that one Gibbs play this season.
Arizona at Minnesota
In what was projected to be a favorable matchup last week against the Seahawks, the Cardinals just quickly abandoned the run after it did not work. James Conner, who had averaged 15.9 carries per game before last week, had just seven carries for 8 yards as the team threw the ball 37 times in a game that was close throughout the entirety, never more than a 10-point margin. We've now seen two games in a row where Conner failed to break 35 rushing yards, as even in a 31-6 win in Week 11, he had just 12 carries for 33 yards against the Jets. The good news for the Cardinals is that their offensive line is getting back to being healthy as starting right tackle Jonah Williams, who had been out since Week 1, returned last week. Throughout his career, James Conner has been inconsistent in terms of both production and volume, as he has never had more than 215 carries in a season. Last week's game was a slow-paced, inefficient game on both sides, as neither the Seahawks nor Cardinals were able to get much going offensively. Conner is likely to be fine moving forward and get back to the 15-17 carries per game that we're used to, but expect week-to-week fluctuations that are higher than most players.
There are some big questions for Minnesota heading into Week 13, primarily at the linebacker spot, as run-stopper Ivan Pace Jr. was placed on IR with a hamstring injury. Minnesota's run defense has been great all season as they've allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and third-fewest rushing yards per game, and no running back has topped 50 yards against them since Week 8 as the team has shut down D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne Jr., and Jonathan Taylor. With Pace heading to IR, the Vikings will turn to veteran Kamu Grugier-Hill, who will play alongside Blake Cashman. The good news for Minnesota is that for most of the season, they've been playing a one-linebacker formation for 40-50% of plays, as they primarily play three safeties on the field at all times. With Cashman as the team's leading linebacker, they should be able to survive without Pace, although it will hurt them in short-yardage and goal-line formations. Along the defensive line, this veteran unit frequently rotates as they lack the elite run-stopper but has enough depth by rotating 8-9 players to keep players fresh.
