Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
San Francisco vs Seattle
Christian McCaffrey wasted no time returning from his Achilles injury, as he was on the field for 88% of the snaps in Week 10. McCaffrey had 19 touches last week, which was slightly below his 21-touch average in 2023, but with the emergence of Jordan Mason, there was a slight decrease in volume. McCaffrey has the benefit of running behind one of the league's best offensive lines led by future Hall of Fame Trent Williams, who remains one of the best left tackles in the NFL even at 36 years old. Rookie third-round right-guard Dominick Puti has been one of the better rookies this season. Despite losing their top two running backs for most of the season, the 49ers still are fifth in rushing yards this season, led by Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo.
Seattle's run defense is a complete mess. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, 123 rushing yards per game to the position, which is also second on the year. Since Week 5, Seattle has allowed 138 yards per game to opposing running backs and a staggering 5.5 yards per carry, which has led the NFL this season. The team has tried to make changes, particularly in the linebacker position. Seattle traded Jerome Baker for Ernest Jones IV earlier this season and cut leading tackler Tyrel Dodson this past week. Dodson was the team's defensive play-caller for all nine of the team's games this season, which will certainly create a void in this defense. A significant amount of pressure will be put on Ernest Jones IV, who has been with the team for just two weeks, while fourth-round rookie Tyrice Knight will likely fill in as the second linebacker for Seattle. Knight has not played significant snaps since Week 4, as he's largely been relegated to the bench. The big issue for Seattle continues to be Johnathan Hankins, who just keeps playing worse each week. Hankins was brought in to be the big-bodied, run-stopping defensive tackle. Due to Hankins' poor play, the team has been forced to one of the lightest defensive lines in the NFL as the only player in the rotation over 300 pounds is Jarran Reed at just 307 pounds. This puts a lot of pressure on the linebacker unit that has had so many issues this season.
LA Rams at New England
After a 10-game touchdown streak dating back to last season, Kyren Williams has now gone two games without a touchdown. Williams has a firm grasp on the running game in Los Angeles, as no other player has over 100 rushing yards. However, despite averaging 19.6 carries per game, Williams has largely been inefficient, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season compared to 5.0 last year. Williams is not to blame here, as the offensive line has experienced a significant downgrade in Los Angeles, particularly at right tackle, as Rob Havenstein has been dealing with an ankle injury all season. Havenstein missed Week 10 and seems unlikely to play this week. With Havenstein out, the team will need to rely on Joe Noteboom, a veteran but better suited as an emergency replacement and not someone you want to rely on for an extended period. The Rams also need to get better production out of center Jonah Jackson and guard Steve Avila, who were starters heading into the season but were placed on IR and returned last week with both players struggling in their first game back. It will be critical for the Rams to get a high level of play from their two returning starters to compensate for the loss of Havenstein, the captain of this offensive line.
Since Week 4, the Patriots have allowed a league-leading 138 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. While they did look better last week, allowing just 59 yards to D'Andre Swift, this defense has allowed four running backs to top 100 yards since Week 4 and seven running backs to top 80 yards in the six games since Week 4. The Patriots just have not been the same team since Jabrill Peppers was put on the Commissioner's Exempt list. This has put significant pressure on an already thin defense as undrafted rookie safety Dell Pettus has been forced into significant snaps. At linebacker, the team had intended to rely on veterans Raekwon McMillan and Ja'Whaun Bentley, but both were massively disappointing. McMillan was released in Week 10 after being one of the worst run-stoppers in the NFL this season, while Bentley was put on IR back in Week 2. Christian Elliss has been their best run-stopper, but he missed Week 10 with an abdominal injury and is questionable this week. If he were to miss, undrafted rookie Curtis Jacobs could be forced into a large role after Sione Takitaki suffered a hamstring injury in Week 10.
Cleveland at New Orleans
Coming off of a bye, the Browns are finally starting to get healthy along the offensive line. This unit was ravaged by injuries early on this season, and all starters should be active this week. However, just as they're finally getting healthy, it came out this week that the team benched Jed Wills after he made a business decision not to play against the Ravens in Week 8. Wills is in a contract year after the former first-round pick has had a tumultuous tenure in Cleveland and appears on his way out as the team will start Dawand Jones, who is 6-8 and 375 pounds, at left tackle for now. At running back, Nick Chubb has struggled in his three games since returning from his knee injury, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. The good news for Chubb is that the bye should give him some time to continue to get healthy after the last two extremely difficult matchups against the Chargers and Ravens. Chubb is the only running back to top 50 yards against Baltimore this season, so the upside in a favorable matchup certainly needs to be considered coming off of a bye this week.
New Orleans' rushing defense has fallen apart after being one of the better run-stopping units in 2023. The biggest issue for the Saints has been the interior of the defensive line, which has been the worst unit in a long time. The team continues to play 2023 first-round pick Bryan Bresee, who simply can't defend the run, and the reason they continue to play him is that their other options are equally as bad as Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shephard have been amongst the worst run-stoppers this season. The Saints' defense, because of cap issues, is not deep and has gotten old quickly. Linebacker Demario Davis, who had been amongst the best run-stoppers over the last seven seasons, five of which ended up in All-Pro status, has finally started to show his age as he turns 36 in January. New Orleans is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the most since Week 5, as they're allowing 133 rushing yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns. Four running backs have topped 100 yards on the year against this defense, and Nick Chubb could have a breakout opportunity this week.
Philadelphia vs Washington
Saquon Barkley is making a strong case for Offensive Player of the Year. Despite a lackluster 66-yard performance last week, Barkley is averaging 110 rushing yards per game and a staggering 5.8 yards per carry. The big news heading into Week 11 is that the Eagles will likely get left tackle Jordan Mailata back from injury after the left tackle has been out since Week 6. Mailata is a massive upgrade for this offense as he's one of the league's best left tackles and is replacing Fred Johnson, who struggled in Mailata's absence. With Mailata back, the Eagles' offensive line is amongst the best in the NFL as both Mailata and right tackle Lane Johnson are All-Pro caliber players, while the guards Landon Dickerson and reclamation project Mekhi Becton have both been above average contributors this season.'
Washington continues to struggle with consistently stopping the run. Last week, Washington allowed 133 rushing yards to opposing running backs, but the performance was one of their better ones of the season as it took 38 rushing attempts for the Steelers to get to the 133 yards as Najee Harris had a difficult day. Washington is a team that, if you can overwhelm their weak defensive line, you're going to have success because as great as linebacker Bobby Wagner has been this season, he can only be great when not having to shed multiple blockers. Washington's defensive line is in a complete rebuild. Rookie second-round pick Jer'Zhawn Newton has been forced into more snaps than the team would like this season due to defensive line mainstay Jonathan Allen being lost for the year. Meanwhile, at defensive tackle, 2022 second-round pick Phidarian Mathis continues to struggle, which caused the Commanders to utilize veteran Sheldon Day for 31 snaps last week. Washington has allowed three running backs to top 100 yards this season, as D'Andre Swift, Derrick Henry, and James Conner all topped this mark. Those three are also the top three best running backs that the team has faced, and with facing Saquon Barkley this week, the defensive line could be in trouble once again in Week 11.
Indianapolis at NY Jets
Jonathan Taylor is quietly having an outstanding season in 2024. Despite not being 100% healthy, Taylor has run for over 100 yards in four of his seven games this season, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and torched the Jets last week, running for 114 yards on 21 carries, including a 58-yard run in the first half. Despite being 5'10'' and 226 pounds, Taylor has breakaway capabilities as he has a 20-yard run or longer in five of his last six games. The Colts have invested heavily in their offensive line this season, and so far, it is paying off. While veteran Quenton Nelson continues to play at a high level, left tackle Bernhard Reimann and right tackle Braden Smith are both tremendous run blockers. While there was some initial concern about center Ryan Kelly being placed on IR for the Colts, rookie Tanor Bortellini has stepped in and done enough to prevent a complete collapse at the center position.
The path to defeating the Jets is relatively simple. Win the game on the ground, control the clock, and limit the number of possessions the Jets offense has to get into a rhythm. Despite facing some weak competition over the last five weeks, the Jets have allowed Ray Davis, Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, and James Conner to top 16 fantasy points, with all but Stevenson topping 100 total yards. Like most bad run defenses, the issue for the Jets is primarily along the defensive line. This unit prioritized rushing the passer and spending elsewhere, as Micheal Clemons, Javon Kinlaw, 2023 first-round pick Will McDonald IV, and even All-Pro Quinnen Williams have been liabilities against the run this season. This week will be the biggest test for this run defense as they take on an elite offensive line and the best running back they've faced all season. While linebackers Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood are more than capable run-stoppers, with Sherwood being fourth in the NFL for tackles this season, they're likely going to be in for a long day having to consistently shed blockers to stop this Indianapolis rushing attack.
Bottom 5 Rushing Defenses
Buffalo vs Kansas City
Buffalo may need to lean heavily on their rushing attack this week, depending on the health of their receiving options. The Bills will be without Keon Coleman due to a wrist injury but could also be without Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid in Week 11. Last week, with Cooper and Coleman out, the Bills ran the ball 31 times, 19 of which came from James Cook, while Josh Allen added eight on his own. For Cook, his carries have been a bit of a roller coaster over the last five weeks as he's had 20, 12, 17, 10, and 19. The Bills are more than comfortable taking a matchup advantage and game planning around that as they abandoned the run against a difficult Titans defense while targeting the run against Indianapolis and Seattle's porous run defense. However, when facing Kansas City, they could have difficulty throwing or running the ball this week.
Kansas City's run defense continues to be the best in the NFL in the 2024 season. On the year, they're allowing just 53 yards per game to opposing running backs, 3.1 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs, and just 14.0 fantasy points per game to the position, all of which are the best in the NFL in 2024. As great as Kansas City has been statistically, the schedule is even more impressive. This team has not allowed a running back to top 60 rushing yards all season while facing Jordan Mason, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, Bijan Robinson, and Derrick Henry. The Chiefs' dominance is a collective effort, as their leading tackler, Nick Bolton, is 47th in the NFL in tackles. Chris Jones is on pace for his third consecutive First-Team All-Pro selection, as the defensive lineman creates nightmares for opposing offensive linemen as he can line up at any position along the defensive line, taking advantage of the matchups. Linebacker Nick Bolton and safety Justin Reid are elite run-stopping specialists who rarely miss tackles, allowing the Chiefs to have a three-tiered approach when stopping the run. The Chiefs have been able to stay extremely healthy, and most of these players have played together for multiple years, which has created one of the most cohesive units in the NFL.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
A big question for Pittsburgh heading into Week 11 is the health of Najee Harris. While Harris should play, he is dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and largely limited his ability to run the ball, as he had just 2.5 yards per carry in a favorable matchup against Washington despite carrying the ball 21 times. If Harris doesn't get a full practice this week, it will be difficult to trust the running back who had three straight 100-yard performances prior to last week, as he just did not look like the same player last week. The good news for Pittsburgh is that we continue to see progression along the offensive line. This was one of the worst offensive lines heading into 2024, and while they have not developed into an elite unit, they're league average, according to Footballguys Expert Matt Bitonti, who has Pittsburgh ranked 16th in his offensive line rankings. A big addition has been rookie center Zach Frazier, who returned last week after missing two games.
Baltimore's run defense has been dominant for all of the 2024 season. Only one running back has topped 50 yards against this defense in 2024, and that was Nick Chubb in Week 8. As great as Baltimore's run defense has been, they benefit even more due to being a funnel defense with one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in 2024 combined with a high-powered offense, which forces teams to take a pass-heavy approach against Baltimore. One area of concern for Baltimore is injuries this week. They already lost 350-pound defensive tackle Michael Pierce to a calf injury, and this week could be without run-stopping specialist Kyle Hamilton, who is second on the team in tackles. With no Hamilton, even more pressure will be put on Smith, who is fourth in the NFL in tackles in 2024, along with linebacker Trenton Simpson, who is third on the team in tackles and has had a solid second season after being the team's 2023 third-round draft pick. As great as this team has allowed just 57 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, the schedule is a concern as it has been amongst the easiest in the NFL for opposing rushing offenses. The best running backs that the Ravens have faced in 2024 are Isiah Pacheco, Nick Chubb, and either Javonte Williams or James Cook.
Washington at Philadelphia
Washington is expected to get Brian Robinson Jr back this week after the running back missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. While Austin Ekeler was serviceable as a backup, Robinson allows them to do things that Ekeler is just not capable of, which is consistently running between the tackles. Ekeler is better served as a change of pace player as he averages 6.2 yards per carry with Robinson in the lineup compared to just 3.6 when Robinson is out of the lineup. Robinson, combined with Jayden Daniels, who looked healthier and more comfortable running the ball last week, should provide a difficult task for the defense on whether to stop the downhill power back of Robinson or risk having to account for Daniels in the running game, which is as dynamic as any quarterback in the NFL.
After a somewhat slow start to the 2024 season, Philadelphia's run defense is emerging as an elite unit. This extremely talented but inexperienced group has rebuilt itself through the draft over the last couple of seasons. Since Week 4, Philadelphia has allowed just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. While their schedule was front-loaded facing Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and Josh Jacobs over the first three weeks, they've allowed just one running back to top 50 yards since those first three games, which was Rico Dowdle last week, who had 53 rushing yards in a game that Philadelphia was playing soft defense given their 34-6 victory. The evolution of this defense has been the play of linebacker Zack Baun, who continues to improve each week. Along the defensive line, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Nolan Smith Jr. are all back to playing at a high level, while the Eagles have found a gem in third-year undrafted safety Reed Blankenship, as Blankenship is third on the team with 50 tackles this season.
Jacksonville at Detroit
There's not much to like this week for Jacksonville. They're two-touchdown underdogs as they go on the road to take on one of the league's best-run defenses in Detroit. To make matters worse, Mac Jones will get the start once again this week as Trevor Lawrence continues to deal with a shoulder injury that kept him out of Week 10. In that Week 10 game, the Jaguars were unable to move the ball as they ran just 13 times with their running backs, as Travis Etienne Jr. had 11 of the 13 carries due to Tank Bigsby leaving the game early with an ankle injury. Bigsby did not practice on Wednesday, and it would be somewhat surprising to see Bigsby play this week as the Jaguars have a bye next week. There just does not seem to be much of a reason to rush a guy back for a 2-8 team in a game that is unlikely to be competitive. For Etienne, volume has been the issue this season as the team does not seem to trust him having more than 11-12 carries per game. If Bigsby does play, he was trending to be the top running back in Jacksonville, as he averaged 17 carries per game in the three games prior to last week.
Detroit's defense made a definitive statement last week on Sunday Night Football. Despite the offense turning the ball over five times, Detroit was able to hold Joe Mixon to just 46 yards on 25 carries, which was critical to allow Detroit to come back and win last week. Detroit's defense started out as one of the league's best-run defenses and then went through a bit of a transition period after Aidan Hutchinson was injured in Week 6. From Week 7 through Week 9, Detroit allowed Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones to all have 90 yards or more in those three weeks. However, last week was encouraging as this is still a very talented defense led by the best defensive tackle combination in the NFL, as Alim McNeill and D.J. Reeder are elite run-stoppers up the middle. The Lions also added Za'Darius Smith at the trade deadline, who will play this week after missing last week's game. While Smith won't be a replacement for the All-Pro Hutchinson, he is an above-average pass rusher and runs defender who should certainly help fill the void. The Lions are strong at both the linebacker and safety positions as 2023 first-round pick linebacker Jack Campbell has shown significant growth, leading the team in tackles this season. At safety, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph make up one of the best safety duos in the NFL, with Branch being a run-stopping specialist who can slide down into the box as an extra linebacker when the Lions are in Nickel formation.
Minnesota at Tennessee
The big news in Minnesota this week is the health of Aaron Jones. The running back is dealing with a rib injury that caused him to leave Week 10 early. Jones was a limited participant on Wednesday, and the team is saying all of the right things about his potential return this week, but it is still something to monitor throughout the week. If he's unable to go, Cam Akers saw the increase in snaps for the Vikings as they seem to be moving on from Ty Chandler, who saw just 12 snaps (14%) last week. Jones has been extremely consistent this season, but it is still frustrating for fantasy managers as he has only scored three touchdowns all season, with just one in the last five weeks. Opportunities for Jones are not the issue, as he has 12 red zone opportunities over the last three weeks; he just needs to find a way to finish the drive in the end-zone instead of the Vikings kicking short field goals, which was a big reason that they only won 12-7 last week. Left tackle Cam Robinson is acclimating well to Minnesota after being traded from Jacksonville. Robinson has a difficult job replacing Christian Darrisaw, who is one of the league's best left tackles but was lost for the season in Week 8.
Despite some turnover, the Titans' defense continues to be one of the better run-stopping units in the NFL this season. On the year, the Titans allow 80 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is sixth in the NFL this season. However, outside of a Week 8 performance from Detroit, where they allowed 163 rushing yards, Tennessee's run defense has been almost perfect. Only one other running back this season has topped 60 rushing yards against Tennessee, which was Breece Hall, who had 62 back in Week 2. First-year defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson has done a tremendous job game planning to stop the run despite the team's 2-7 season as the Titans have lost Qandree Diggs to IR, traded away their leading tackler Ernest Jones IV, and cut Jamal Adams after he requested to be released. A big reason they can keep such a high level of play has been third-year undrafted linebacker Jack Gibbons. The linebacker has emerged as an elite run-stopper as he had 15 and 14 tackles over the last two weeks. Gibbons is playing behind a strong veteran defensive line led by former All-Pro Jeffery Simmons, while rookie defensive tackle D'Vondre Sweat, at 365 pounds, is one of the largest space-eating defensive tackles in the NFL, which has provided significant benefits to the linebackers.
