Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
NY Giants at Carolina
The Giants are fully committed to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for what will likely be the entire season, barring ineffectiveness or injury. Despite suffering a concussion in Week 8, a short week for the Giants, Tracy had 16 carries to Devin Singletary's seven carries while outsnapping Singletary 72% to 28%, which was Tracy's high of the season. While Tracy could not take advantage of the Commanders' matchup, it was more than an acceptable performance from the rookie, as he had 66 yards on 16 carries. He could not break a long run, as his longest of the day was just 10 yards after having two 25-yard carries or longer in his prior five starts this season. Meanwhile, Singletary, after a strong start to the season, just has not been able to show much of anything, as he's not being utilized in the passing game, is averaging just 3.1 yards-per-carry over the last four games, and based on the direction of the team at 2-7 seems to be a spot where they're just going to see what their rookie Tracy has for the remainder of the season.
Carolina's run defense continues to be a mess this season. On the season, they're allowing a league-leading 133 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and 1.4 touchdowns, which also leads the NFL this season. While Carolina allows 4.6 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, this is made worse due to the negative game scripts they consistently find themselves in. Bryce Young will start again this week for Carolina, and with Young as the starter, this is a Panthers offense that is scoring just 11.2 points per game and has an average point differential of -22 points per game. They have lost their two best defenders, Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson, to IR while also losing two of their starting safeties, Jordan Fuller and Nick Scott. This is a team that was talent-depleted prior to the start of the season and will likely have a significant issue this week stopping the Giants. Along the defensive line, the Panthers have a cast of journeymen in A'Shawn Robinson, Charles Harris, and DeShawn Williams, who the Panthers signed off of the Bills practice squad earlier this season.
Chicago vs New England
D'Andre Swift's 100 total-yard streak was snapped last week as the entire Bears offense struggled last week as Chicago lost 29-9. Like most of the offense, Swift struggled, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and gaining just 51 yards. The good news going forward for D'Andre Swift is that despite the game script getting out of hand for Chicago. Swift had 22 touches last week in a game that Chicago lost by 20. At 4-4, Chicago's primary objective for this season is to develop Caleb Williams, and abandoning a rushing offense was something that we saw early this season that hindered the entire Bears offense. The Bears had a significant loss at right tackle as Darnell Wright missed last week, and so far, could be without both tackles this week as Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones did not practice on Wednesday. It would be a significant loss if both were to miss, as this is not a deep unit. The good news is that they should get Ryan Bates back from injured reserve this week, as he was a full participant on Wednesday after being designated to return from a shoulder injury.
After a strong start to the season, New England's run defense has fallen on hard times. New England has allowed eight running backs to top 75 rushing yards or more over the last six games, with four of those topping 100 yards. Since Week 4, New England has allowed a league-leading 152 rushing yards per game. It's difficult to understate the loss of Jabril Peppers, who was placed on the Commissioner's Exemption list while dealing with legal issues and will likely miss the remainder of the season. New England has already lost run-stopper and captain Ja'Whaun Bentley to a season-ending torn pectoral back in Week 2. Losing their top two captains and run-stoppers, the Patriots seemingly do not have an identity, as they're relying on one of the league's worst linebacking groups between Jahlani Tavai, Raekwon McMillan, and Christian Elliss. Unless New England can start getting better play from their defensive line, they're going to continue to be amongst the worst group in the NFL.
Atlanta at New Orleans
Despite his early season success, Tyler Allgeier's role in the Falcons offense appears to be fairly predictable. Unless there is a game in which Atlanta gets out to a big lead, he's likely going to see 5-9 carries, with Bijan Robinson seeing the primary workload. In Atlanta's two games that they had control over, this is where Allgeier saw more than ten carries, as he had 12 carries in Week 8 against Tampa Bay and 18 carries against Carolina. Both were games that Atlanta led by two touchdowns heading into the fourth quarter. Robinson has been one of the league's most efficient running backs, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and has a heavy involvement in both the rushing attack and as a receiver, as he has seven receptions in each of his last two games. The Falcons have one of the league's best offensive lines, with right guard Chris Lindstrom and left tackle Jake Matthews being two of the best at their position. This unit ranks as Footballguys' Offensive Line Expert Matt Bitonti's second-best offensive line heading into Week 10.
New Orleans is in a bit of a free fall at the moment. After starting 2-0, New Orleans has now dropped seven in a row, including a 23-22 loss against Carolina last week. New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per carry since Week 4, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Saints rely heavily on 35-year-old Demario Davis, who has fallen off considerably in 2024 after five straight All-Pro seasons. The defensive line has not helped as the team has consistently dealt with salary cap issues, causing the team to have to rebuild this defensive line, which has left significant holes. Defensive tackles have been a major issue for New Orleans. 2023 first-round pick Bryan Bresee is amongst the worst run-stoppers in the NFL this season, while Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders have both struggled. With the Saints trading long-timer corner Marshon Lattimore, this will put additional pressure on the safety teams to focus on stopping the pass, and we just have to wonder how motivated this team is after firing Dennis Allen this past week.
Pittsburgh vs Washington
Najee Harris is amongst the hottest running backs in the NFL. Coming off of three straight 100-yard performances, Harris has excelled despite still being on a committee with Jaylen Warren, as Harris has averaged just 51% of the snaps over the last three games. With Russell Wilson at quarterback, Pittsburgh has taken a run-heavy approach this season as they have run the ball 28 and 33 times with Harris and Warren, with Harris getting 40 of those 61 carries. Pittsburgh's offensive line has improved significantly compared to the 2023 season and should improve this week as they'll get rookie center Zack Frazier back, who has been one of the best run-blocking centers in the NFL this season. If there is a weak spot along the offensive line, it is right tackle Broderick Jones, who is filling in after first-round rookie Troy Fautanu was lost for the season with a knee injury. Jones is a much better run-blocker than a pass-blocker, and so far, the shift has not created many issues for this offense in Arthur Smith's first year.
Washington has completely flipped in the 2024 season under head coach Dan Quinn. This team had one of the worst pass defenses in 2023, but this year, the team is selling out to stop the pass. This has created pressure on their run-stopping unit as they're allowing 5.2 yards per carry, which leads the NFL in 2024, allowing 115 rushing yards per game. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed three running backs to top 100 yards as D'Andre Swift, James Conner, and Derrick Henry all had big days against this defense. Washington's weak spot is the defensive line. Previously a strength, the team traded away former first-round picks Montez Sweat and Chase Young last season, and Jonathan Allen was lost for the year with a pectoral injury. This has forced Phidarian Mathis and rookie Jer'Zhan Newton into expanded roles they are struggling with. While the team has All-Pro 34-year-old Bobby Wagner, who is still playing at an extremely high level, he needs more consistent support. The upside for Washington is the acquisition of corner Marshon Lattimore, which could create more confidence in their secondary and ultimately improve their ability to focus on stopping the run.
Philadelphia at Dallas
Saquon Barkley is quickly becoming a front-runner for the Offensive Player of the Year along with Derrick Henry. Barkley on the year is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, but over the last three games has topped 100 yards in all three contests against Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and the Giants while scoring two touchdowns in those three games. With both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith forcing defenses to respect the Eagles' passing attack, it has created significant running lanes for Barkley. Despite the loss of left tackle Jordan Mailata back in Week 6, replacement Fred Johnson has been a noticeable downgrade, but Johnson is a much better run blocker than pass blocker in this offense. The right side of the offensive line is amongst the best in the NFL. Led by Lane Johnson along with Mekhi Becton, the Eagles have revitalized the former tackle, moving him to guard and saving his career as he's turned into a tremendous run blocker,
The big news for Dallas this week is whether they will get Micah Parsons back from his ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 4. While Parsons will have a significant impact on the pass defense, Dallas has had issues even prior to Parsons going out. During the season, Dallas has allowed five running backs to top 80 yards. The Cowboys have been even worse against the league's elite running backs, as Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara ran for over 100 yards. Dallas will be facing another elite running back this week in Saquon Barkley. For Dallas, 2023 first-round pick Mazi Smith has been amongst the worst run-stoppers in the NFL. Smith is a 340-pound defensive tackle who the team has relied upon to be a space-eater, preventing blockers from getting to their linebacker unit. The Cowboys are in a bit of disarray at the moment, as their season has been completely derailed by injuries to Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and now losing Dak Prescott, which should force their defense to see a higher volume of rushing attempts against. Veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks is a strength of this defense but is questionable this week after not practicing on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. Kendricks is critical, as last week, Dallas played a Nickel formation 91% of the time, as rookie Marist Liufau only saw 9% of snaps after averaging between 40-50% every week this season.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Denver at Kansas City
Denver has a true committee approach but has found some success this season as they're averaging 4.4 yards per carry and are 15th in the NFL in rushing yards this season. While Javonte Williams is seeing about 60% of the snaps on the season, he's averaging just 11 carries per game as the team rotates Jaleel McLaughlin and has even used Audric Estime in recent blowout game scripts. The one concern to have with Denver is that they've faced amongst the easiest schedules in the NFL as they've got to face Seattle, Las Vegas, New Orleans, and Carolina, all of which rank amongst the league's worst run-stopping units this season.
Opponents have simply stopped trying to run the ball against Kansas City in 2024. Facing just 17 attempts per game, Kansas City is averaging allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Kansas City is on pace to be one of the best run-stopping units we've seen in recent memory. What is even more impressive is the running backs that Kansas City has faced. Over the last two weeks, they faced Tampa Bay and Las Vegas, and no running back topped 25 yards in either of those games. Meanwhile, from Weeks 1 through 7, Kansas City shut down Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, and Jordan Mason, as no running back has topped 60 yards this season against this defense. Kansas City does a tremendous job in their scheme as they're able to rotate the versatile Chris Jones all over the defensive line, creating mismatch nightmares for opposing defenses. As a linebacker, Leo Chenal leads this unit as the third-year linebacker emerging as one of the league's most underrated players. However, Nick Bolton is the run-stopping specialist and leads the team in tackles this season. The Chiefs' run defense also benefits from the perceived threat of Patrick Mahomes II and the offense, which forces game scripts for teams to abandon the run at the first sign of not having success.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Cincinnati acquired Khalil Herbert from Chicago at the trade deadline, who should be able to step into the Zack Moss role after Moss was lost for the season due to a neck injury. This will give some much-needed relief to Chase Brown, who had 27 carries last week in the Bengals 41-24 win over Las Vegas. With Tee Higgins doubtful this week, the Bengals will rely on their rushing attack to open up space for Ja'Marr Chase, who has been struggling without Higgins. Brown has at least 10 carries in each of his last six games after a slow start to the season behind Moss, but he's a player who has shown that he has big play potential as he has four 20-yard carries or more in the last six games.
Baltimore has turned into a complete funnel defense. This is arguably the league's best run-stopping unit but amongst the league's worst secondaries, averaging just 58 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs but 302 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Heading into last week against Denver, there was some concern with the loss of Michael Pierce, who was placed on IR with a calf injury and was made even worse by 340-pound defensive tackle Travis Jones not seeing a snap as he dealt with an ankle injury. This ultimately led to Denver's running backs gaining 86 yards last week, as both Javonte Williams and Audric Estime had moderate success against this defense. Jones should return this week after being a full participant on Wednesday. Baltimore's defensive line's primary responsibility is to keep offensive linemen away from Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, two of the best tacklers in the NFL this season.
Tampa Bay vs San Francisco
Tampa Bay's rushing offense is extremely frustrating for fantasy managers. Still, it has proven effective as they're averaging 5.1 yards per carry and have the 10th-most rushing yards in the season despite having the 19th-most attempts. Despite Rachaad White averaging about 62% of snaps in games that he is active, White is averaging just 8.8 carries per game, as Bucky Irving, who is on the field for about 37% of plays, is averaging 9.2 carries per game. Irving has been the far better runner, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, but it is clear that Tampa Bay does not trust the rookie in pass-blocking situations despite Irving being an excellent receiver, having caught 23 of his 25 targets this year. With no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay is going to need to continue to find situational ways to move the ball, which will likely mean involving wide receivers in the running game, as we saw Sterling Shepard with a 19-yard run, asking Baker Mayfield to run more as he has a career-high in rushing yards already this season, and even mixing in Sean Tucker who has shown he can be a big play running back.
After a significant turnover in 2024, the 49ers are starting to turn the corner and re-establish themselves as one of the league's best defenses. San Francisco has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season and has been allowing just 3.2 yards per carry since Week 4. Despite the loss of Talanoa Hufanga in what could be a season-long wrist injury, this team still has two First-Team All-Pro in their front seven, as Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are amongst the best at their positions. San Francisco did bring back Tashaun Gipson Sr, who has started the past two seasons in San Francisco after the Jaguars released the veteran safety. Gipson will provide some stability to the team's weak spot with their youth at the safety position as second-year Ji'Ayir Brown and fourth-round rookie Malik Mustapha have made mistakes from time-to-time at the safety position which Gipson should provide both experience, reliability and mentoring to the young safeties.
Dallas vs Philadelphia
Just when Dallas' rushing offense was starting to get going this season, there are major question marks heading into Week 10. Rico Dowdle had 75 yards or more in two of his last three games, but with the critical injury to Dak Prescott, who will miss multiple weeks, the entire Cowboys offense is put into question. With Cooper Rush as the starter, Dallas will likely try to run the ball to make life easier for the backup quarterback, but whether they will have success remains to be seen. Dallas could also be without some critical offensive linemen in Week 10 as future Hall of Fame right guard Zack Martin did not practice on Wednesday, while left tackle Tyler Guyton is dealing with a neck and shoulder issue that caused him to be a limited participant. If they're missing either player, it will be extremely concerning to face a Philadelphia run defense that is starting to emerge as one of the league's best.
After a slow start to the season, the young Eagles' defensive line is finally turning the corner and showing that they can be the elite defense that many thought they would be heading into this season. Over the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia allowed 80 rushing yards or more to Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Alvin Kamara. Since Week 4, Philadelphia has not allowed a running back to top 50 yards as they've simply suffocated opposing offenses. A big reason for the improved play has been linebacker Zack Baun. The former 3rd-round pick was signed to a one-year prove-it deal with Philadelphia, and it is showing that he is one of the best signings of the offseason as he is quickly putting himself into contention for a Pro Bowl or even All-Pro status as he has solidified this defense and leads the team with 79 tackles. Safety Reed Blankenship has also been tremendous as a run-stopper as the undrafted third-year player has established himself as a long-term safety in the NFL. Philadelphia's defense line is an extremely deep unit, rotating nine defensive linemen per game. While they have not faced the greatest competition since those early weeks, they get one of the league's worst rushing offenses this week in Dallas and should be a nightmare for Dallas to be able to move the ball.
LA Chargers vs Tennessee
J.K. Dobbins' overall season numbers have been outstanding. Diving deeper into it, you quickly realize that this player relies on big plays, which will ultimately cause him to have a higher week-to-week variance than most players. In games where Dobbins has at least a 20-yard carry, he averages 112 rushing yards per game in those four contests and 7.8 yards per carry. In games where he has failed to have a 20-yard carry, he averages just 43 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. With Gus Edwards still sidelined with an ankle injury, the Chargers are going to need Dobbins to provide some level of consistency week-to-week. Dobbins should be getting some additional help from the recent success of the passing offense, which has 275 passing yards or more in each of their last three games, as Justin Herbert seems to be having a resurgence after a very slow start to the 2024 season.
Tennessee's run defense has been a continued strength of this defense. Outside of the Week 8 performance against Detroit, in which the game was never competitive, Tennessee has not allowed a running back to gain 75 yards all season, and the leading rusher was Breece Hall with 62 yards. Tennessee allows just 3.3 yards per carry if we exclude that outlier performance against Detroit. While we can't completely discount that game, especially since it was just in Week 8, the Titans have invested heavily along the defensive line to improve their ability to stop the run. Second-round rookie defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat has the makings of the league's next enormous run-stuffer as at 365 pounds, he's simply immovable and has been playing a large snap share for this defense despite his size. This has allowed All-Pro defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons to focus less on the defensive tackle role and rotate throughout the defensive line to take advantage of matchups against opposing defenses. Last week, we saw the Titans play a base defense for 100% of the snaps, playing three linebackers with Jerome Baker, Kenneth Murray Jr., and Jack Gibbens, which is largely unheard of in the 2024 season.
