Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
New Orleans at Carolina
Derek Carr is expected to return this week, which will significantly improve the overall outlook of the Saints, who have been struggling offensively with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener at quarterback as the team has lost six games in a row. With Derek Carr back in the lineup, this should elevate the outlook for Alvin Kamara, who has struggled over the last four weeks, averaging just 36 rushing yards per game as the team has been unable to achieve any sustained success offensively. Over the previous four games, Kamara has averaged just ten carries per game compared to 20 carries per game over the first four games. With Carr back, we may not see 20 carries per game for Kamara, as he's never done that over a sustained period in his career, but we certainly will expect to see at least 15-17 this week.
Carolina's run defense improved in Week 8 as they essentially shut down the Denver Broncos, holding Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin to just 91 yards on 25 carries. However, this is still a flawed unit. On the year, the Panthers allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-most yards at 129 per game, and a staggering 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. The Panthers did get linebacker Josey Jewell back last week, but while he is one of their top linebackers, undrafted rookie safety Demani Richardson led the team in tackles last week. With the team's top linebacker, Shaq Thompson, and top defensive tackle, Derrick Brown, both out for the season, this unit is the worst front seven in the NFL with very little hope of change. On the defensive line, Shy Tuttle has completely fallen off from being an above-average defensive lineman as he's turned into a player that opposing defenses are attacking, given the low quality of play.
LA Rams at Seattle
Kyren Williams has exceeded all expectations in 2023. After some concern that Blake Corum would have a role in this offense after the team drafted him in the third round of the 2024 draft, Williams has grasped onto this role and has been on the field for 86% of the plays this season. While the volume has decreased slightly in 2024 compared to 2023, Williams is still averaging 19.8 carries per game, leading the NFL this season. Williams has been a red-zone workhorse over the last two seasons, leading to him scoring a touchdown in 10 consecutive games. This season, through 7 games, Williams has 44 red zone opportunities, a combination of passing targets and rushing attempts inside the 20-yard-line. While he's not the most explosive runner, with only one carry longer than 20 yards this season, Williams is someone that the Rams completely trust and has been productive in all aspects of the game this year.
The Seahawks are desperately trying to figure out a way to stop the run but have been unable to do so. The team traded away Jerome Baker, hoping it would make an impact, but last week, Buffalo ran all over this defense as James Cook had 111 yards and two touchdowns in a game that was never competitive. Over their last four games, Seattle has allowed a running back to have 99 yards or more in each, with only Isaac Guerendo failing to top the 100-yard mark as James Cook, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Bijan Robinson all topped 100. Seattle traded Jerome Baker for Ernest Jones IV who has already been traded twice this season. Jones made some encouraging plays but was mostly a volume tackler as he had 15 total tackles, including seven solo, but most were downfield. Also interesting, Jones played Buffalo in two consecutive weeks as Buffalo had played Tennessee in the game before this one, while he also was a part of the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason, so this could entirely be the Seahawks going out and getting a player who has familiarity with both of the two teams on their schedule. Seattle should be much better than the 5.2 yards per carry they are currently allowing, as they have talent on the defensive line in Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed. Still, at defensive tackle, they need to do something with Johnathan Hankins, who continues to be unable to play at an NFL-caliber level. At age 32 and 330 pounds, his body seems to be breaking down as he's been a staple for bad run defenses over the last several seasons, and the big body just does not have the ability to get penetration on the offensive line.
NY Giants vs Washington
The Giants may have found their running back of the future, as it appears that Tyrone Tracy Jr. has taken over this offense. The rookie out of Purdue has been outstanding this season, averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry with 17 or more carries in three of his last four games, and has had a commanding snap count advantage over Devin Singletary since Singletary returned from injury as Tracy has averaged 61% of the snaps compared to Singletary's 30%. The issue for this week is that the Giants are likely to be without Tracy, as he suffered a concussion on Monday. With this being a short week combined with the Giants being 2-6, it would seem unlikely that they would rush Tracy back and instead start Singletary against Washington. The more significant issue for the Giants is that they suffered a massive injury to left tackle Andrew Thomas, who was placed on IR with a foot injury in Week 6. Last week, Chris Hubbard started at left tackle and was a significant dropoff compared to Thomas, who has emerged as one of the better left tackles in the NFL this season.
Since Washington's secondary was exposed over the first three weeks of the season, they've chosen to sell out to stop the pass at the expense of their run defense. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed 125 rushing yards per game, which is fifth in the NFL this season. Three running backs in those five games have topped 100 yards as D'Andre Swift, Derrick Henry, and James Conner all hit the milestone. The issue for the Commanders is they may have the worst defensive line in the NFL. Since Jonathan Allen, who was already a sub-par run-stopper, went down with an injury, Washington has had to rely on second-round rookie Jer'Zhan Newton. Washington has not been able to draft well, as Newton and 2022 second-round pick Phidarian Mathis have been abysmal at stopping the run. This defense relies too heavily on their linebackers, Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. While they're a talented duo, they can only do so much when the safeties are primarily focused on stopping the pass.
Tennessee vs New England
Heading into this week, the health of Tony Pollard is critical for the Titans, as Pollard missed Wednesday's practice with a foot injury. It likely is precautionary, as Pollard was able to play the entire game last week. Despite the offensive struggles for the Titans, Pollard has been extremely consistent, as he has at least 60 rushing yards in six of his seven games this season. The Titans also look like they will get Tyjae Spears back this week, as he was a limited participant in practice. Spears will likely revert to the third-down complementary role rather than a true committee, as some expected heading into the 2024 season. The offensive line for Tennessee continues to be an issue, as the team has been unable to figure out a right tackle. Both Nicholas Petit-Friere and Leroy Watson have been abysmal at the position in 2024, and on the left side, we have not seen the growth that was expected from J.C. Latham or Peter Skoronski, both first-round picks in 2023 and 2024. Under offensive line guru Bill Callahan, this was expected to be a unit that would gradually improve throughout the season, and thus far, we have not seen it.
Big props to New England after they looked like they were on the verge of completely collapsing heading into Week 8; they were able to fight through the adversity to pull off an upset victory last week against the Jets. While the team played better last week, this is still a flawed defense when it comes to stopping the run. Last week, Breece Hall had 80 yards on 16 carries and is now the seventh running back in their last five games, having 75 yards or more against this team. There are some signs that this team will improve, as they have benched Raekwon McMillan, who was the worst run-stopping linebacker in the NFL over the first six weeks of the season, and his replacement, Christian Elliss, has improved this unit as he has nine tackles in each of his last two games. The issue for New England is that Elliss seems unlikely to play this week after missing Wednesday's practice due to an abdominal injury. New England's defense is not a deep unit, and any injury will critically impact the team as they need strong linebacker play to overcome some of the issues that the Patriots have on the defensive line. The Patriots have not been able to overcome the injury to Christian Barmore, who was diagnosed with blood clots prior to the season and is out indefinitely, which has forced the team to rely on players such as Davon Godchaux and Jeremiah Pharms Jr., both of who have struggled to stop the run as Barmore is a type of player that teams simply are not able to replace.
Washington Vs NY Giants
Washington's rushing offense is an extremely efficient, albeit somewhat frustrating, unit when it comes to fantasy football. During the year, Washington averaged 5.2 yards per carry, which is second in the NFL. However, when it comes to fantasy production, Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler are both outside the top 20 in fantasy running backs. Washington is extremely well-coached under Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, as they're utilizing situational football to give their players the best chance for success. Combining the mobility of Jayden Daniels with the versatile veteran in Austin Ekeler and the downhill runner in Brian Robinson Jr, this trio is incredibly difficult to defend. Ekeler is averaging just 5.5 carries per game but averaging 6.2 yards-per-carry with three runs longer than 20 yards already this season, which is more than Brian Robinson Jr, who has just one carry longer than 20 yards on the year but has been efficient as the primary running back averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 14.4 carries per game.
The magic the Giants had over the first six weeks of the season may be starting to fade away. This was one of the most improved units we've seen in many seasons, as they were amongst the worst run defenses in the NFL in 2023. They brought back largely the same personnel minus star safety Xavier McKinney. Suddenly, they looked like a very good defense, holding defenses to just 82 rushing yards per game over the first six weeks of the season. However, over the last two weeks, the defense has completely collapsed. They're allowing 204 rushing yards per game, and both Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris dominated this team, topping 110 yards against them. This is a big week for the Giants, and a lot will be determined by how the linebackers play this week. Micah McFadden has had a roller coaster-type season as the team benched the linebacker in Week 1 for rookie Darius Musau after McFadden led the NFL in missed tackles in 2023. Then, from Week 2 through Week 6, McFadden was amongst the best run-stopping linebackers in the NFL, including a 13-tackle performance against Washington. Now, over the last two weeks, we're starting to see McFadden revert back to that player we saw in 2023, which ultimately led him to lose the starting job at the beginning of the season. New York relies heavily on their linebackers as while they have one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL in Dexter Lawrence II, the rest of the defensive line struggles against the run as they've invested heavily in pass-rushers deprioritizing the run game, hoping they can get by with Lawrence covering up some of their flaws.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Last week, in a game without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Buccaneers still threw the ball 50 times while running the ball just 17 times between Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker. This backfield is very much a committee between White and Irving, with Tucker also involved, likely getting a couple of carries per game. Irving has been the team's better back, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to Irving's 3.9, but both running backs have topped ten carries just once this season. In a difficult matchup this week against Kansas City, it's difficult to get excited about either Irving or White's outlook.
What Kansas City is doing in 2024 is nothing short of spectacular. This defense largely uses scheme under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo over personnel to confuse and ultimately smother opposing rushing attacks. During the season, Kansas City allows just 50 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which leads the NFL, and looking at their schedule, it becomes even more impressive. Kansas City has shut down Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, and Jordan Mason this season. While it is easy to point to All-Pro Chris Jones as the reason, he's more of a pass-rushing interior defensive lineman than an elite run-stopper. The Chiefs find themselves rarely out of position, led by linebackers Leo Chenal and Nick Bolton, both dominating, with Bolton leading the team in tackles. Safety Justin Reid continues to be a run-stopping specialist. Kansas City has stayed healthy and has continuity with very little turnover compared to last season, allowing them to be a cohesive unit, which is critical to stopping the run.
Denver at Baltimore
Denver's rushing offense has been inconsistent throughout the season. The issue for Denver is that they have two running backs who rely on the big play to succeed instead of having sustained success on the ground. While Javonte Williams has grasped this role, he has just four games with runs longer than 10 yards on the season. In those games, he averages 5.1 yards per carry, but in his other four games, he averages just 2.3 yards per carry. It is a similar story for Jaleel McLaughlin, who averages 4.8 yards per carry in games with a carry 10 yards or longer and 1.9 yards per carry in games where he did not have a carry 10 yards or longer. While having a differential is to be expected if you are not carrying the ball more than 10 yards in a game, the issue for Denver is that they're not able to consistently get the 5-8 yard runs, which are causing that big of a disparity in their performance outcome.
Baltimore's run defense continues to dominate in 2024. Last week, Nick Chubb was the first running back to top 50 yards against Baltimore and was only able to run for 52 yards against this defensive front. Baltimore allows just 55 rushing yards per game to opposing team running backs this season, which is second in the NFL. This is a perfect storm of a team that has amongst the worst pass defense in the NFL and a team that has a dominant front seven with amongst the best group of linebackers and defensive line in the NFL but did suffer a critical injury last week as Michael Pierce the 360-pound nose tackle was placed on IR with a calf season. While Pierce had just 15 tackles on the season, his job, along with 340-pound Travis Jones, is to keep offensive lineman off of Roquan Smith and to let the All-Pro linebacker clean up the tackles. Without Pierce, the Ravens will likely turn to Broderick Washington, who will completely change how the Ravens operate as while he's 315 pounds, he does not have the run-stopping prowess that Pierce does and is not someone that opposing defenses will need to figure out how to game plan for.
Baltimore Vs Denver
Despite having early success on the ground, the Ravens largely abandoned the run game last week against Cleveland. Derrick Henry carried the ball just 11 times in a game that Baltimore was leading at halftime, as the Ravens threw the ball 38 times and ran the ball just 21 times, which was a season-low. For Henry, he was still efficient as he gained 73 yards. This is a situation where the Ravens could have thought it was advantageous once Denzel Ward went out to go to a more pass-heavy approach, but you have to believe that after their loss to Cleveland, they will go back to a more run-heavy approach this week. This offensive line has largely remained healthy this season, which has greatly benefitted this offense, as it is led by left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Lindenbaum.
Denver's defense has been the most improved unit in the 2024 season. After originally projecting to be one of the worst defenses heading into the season after allowing 5.1 yards-per-carry in 2023 and losing starting linebacker Josey Jewell, the Broncos have been able to overcome a significant amount of questions to become one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL. After a slow start, Denver has allowed just 71 rushing yards to opposing running backs since Week 4, which is 3.5 yards per carry while facing Breece Hall, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and Chuba Hubbard. The big improvement came in Week 4 when the team made the move to Justin Strnad after Alex Singleton tore his ACL. Strnad has been dominant with a 21% stuff rate. Safety Brandon Jones has emerged as an elite safety in his fifth year in the NFL and will need to play a big role in this defense as it appears that safety P.J. Locke will miss his second straight game with a thumb injury. If he's unable to go, the Broncos are not a deep unit, as Devon Key will make his second start this season. Key is a player who has been in the NFL since 2021 but is just getting his first chance at playing time this season. Sean Payton-coached teams historically have been able to shut down the run, which we see here in 2024 for Denver.
Jacksonville vs Philadelphia
Jacksonville's rushing attack has seen some spark over the last several weeks as Tank Bigsby has earned a significant role in this offense. Over the last five games, Bigsby has 75 yards or more in four of those games, with the team leaning heavily on the running back and Travis Etienne Jr. injured. The big question heading into this week will be the role of Etienne as he is set to return from his hamstring injury. The Jaguars moved this week to trade Cam Robinson, who had missed the last two games for Jacksonville, to Minnesota, meaning Walker Little will be the starting left tackle for the remainder of the season. Little has been a better run blocker than a pass-blocker in 2024, so the drop-off from Robinson to Little should have minimal impact on the running backs.
Philadelphia's defensive line is amongst the youngest in the NFL, as their three starters, Milton Williams, Jordan Davis, and Jalen Carter, are all 25 years old or younger. It took this unit a couple of weeks to figure itself out, but it is starting to look like an elite run-stopping unit. After allowing 80 yards or more to each starting running back over the first three weeks of the season, Philadelphia has not allowed a running back to top 50 yards since Week 4, as they're averaging just 69 rushing yards per game to opposing team running backs which is the third-best in the NFL over that time period. The big question for the Eagles is whether this is due to the competition they've faced or if this unit truly has improved, as they've faced some of the weaker running back rooms in the NFL in Cleveland, New York Giants, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay. Still, Jacksonville this week is another bottom-tier rushing unit that the pure talent of this Eagles defense should be able to handle. Linebacker Zack Baun has had a strong career resurgence in Philadelphia after the third-round linebacker signed just a 1 year $1.6M contract this offseason after struggling in his time in New Orleans.
LA Chargers at Cleveland
Los Angeles' rushing offense is struggling. After a strong start to the first two weeks of the season, J.K. Dobbins is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry over the last five games as he has not topped 100 yards since his explosive Week 1 and 2 performances, where he topped 130 yards in each of those games. With Gus Edwards on IR due to an ankle injury, Dobbins will continue to see opportunities this year, as Haason Haskins and Kimani Vidal are largely non-factors for this offense. The offensive line has played well, particularly the tackles, as the Chargers have invested heavily in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater over the last few seasons.
While other parts of this Cleveland team have struggled, Cleveland's run defense has been the steady part of this team in 2024. Cleveland has not allowed a running back to run for more than 75 yards on the season. Last week, Derrick Henry was the first to run for more than 70 yards against this team, as he ended the day with 73 yards, which was the second-lowest of his 2024 season. Cleveland's defensive line is the strength of this team, as they're led by veterans Myles Garrett, Dalvin Tomlinson, Shelby Harris, and Za'Darius Smith. This is one of the older units in the NFL, averaging 31 years old among the four of them. This unit has allowed the linebackers and safeties to all excel in run-stopping as we've seen Devin Bush have a career resurgence after struggling in his time in Pittsburgh, while Juan Thornhill continues to play at a high level after returning from injury in Week 7. If there is one thing to watch, it is the injury to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, as the linebacker will miss this week due to a scary neck injury suffered last week. Mohamoud Diabate, an undrafted second-year player out of Utah, will get the start, and he has seen at least 20 snaps in each of his last three games.
