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Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Denver vs Carolina
Denver's offense is starting to show signs of life compared to earlier this season. The Broncos have now scored 30 points or more in two of their last three games, and a lot of that credit has to do with their running game. While consistent volume still may be somewhat sporadic, the team trusts Javonte Williams more than they did early in the season as Williams now has 13 or more carries in three of his last four games, and he averaged just eight carries in his first three games. With the additional volume has come additional success, as in those games with 13 or more carries, Williams has at least 60 yards rushing and is averaging 5.3 yards-per-carry compared to just 2.5 yards-per-carry in games where he did not have at least 13 carries. A big reason for Williams' recent success has been the offensive line. This offensive line had many questions heading into this season, but the guards Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz have been impressive so far this season.
Carolina's run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL and has been a flagship defense in this article over the last two seasons. This team is one of the least talented in the NFL, and they currently have 21 players on their injury report as of Wednesday, along with another 10 players on IR. On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers are likely to be without A'Shawn Robinson again this week, who has been the only run-stopper the Panthers have left on the field due to the Derrick Brown preseason injury. At linebacker, the Panthers might be getting Josey Jewell back this week, as he was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. While Jewell will help, he's a replacement-level starter, and his return would only provide marginal benefits. This defense allows the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and the most touchdowns to the position, as they're allowing 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this season.
Buffalo at Seattle
James Cook and the Buffalo rushing offense are a unit that is good enough to exploit bad run defenses but are going to struggle against some of the league's best defenses. The recent schedule for Buffalo has been difficult as, over their last four games, they've faced Jacksonville, Baltimore, Houston, and Tennessee, four of the best run-stopping defenses in the NFL. In those four games, James Cook has failed to top 40 yards in three of those four contests and is averaging just 3.7 yards-per-carry. The big issue for Cook has been the lack of explosiveness this season. On the year, he has just one carry that has gone for longer than 15 yards, which, if he's unable to occasionally break a big play, then his success is largely going to depend on the matchup each week as consistently grinding out yards against some of the league's best-run defenses is extremely difficult.
Seattle's run defense has completely fallen apart over the last three weeks. In those three games, Seattle has allowed 129 yards to Tyrone Tracy Jr., 194 yards to San Francisco, led by Isaac Guerendo and Jordan Mason, and last week allowed 156 to Atlanta, led by Bijan Robinson. The Seahawks are trying to address the problem as they traded Jerome Baker to Tennessee for Ernest Jones IV, who has now been traded twice this season. While this may have long-term benefits, Jerome Baker was the defensive play-caller in Seattle, so trading him and bringing in Jones, who doesn't know the system, would seem to take time and could cause short-term issues with a player who has been with the team less than a week. A big issue for the Seahawks continues to be at defensive tackle as Johnathan Hankins, who was brought in to be the space-eater 330-pound defensive lineman, has struggled in run defense. Hankins has been a part of some of the worst run defenses in the NFL over the last several seasons, as he is no longer the player he was early on in his career.
NY Jets at New England
No team has disappointed offensively more than the New York Jets this season. However, for Breece Hall, there is hope with the change in offensive coordinators from Nathaniel Hackett to Todd Downing. Over the last two weeks, Hall has been a focal point of this offense. Hall has 140 total yards or more in each of the last two weeks, including a 113-yard rushing performance against Buffalo in Week 6. The Jets offensive line was a concern early on in the season, but it has been playing better as of late. This is largely due to left guard John Simpson, who was a big question mark, and second-year center John Tippmann having improved over the course of the season. While right tackle is still a concern as the Jets were likely hoping that first-round pick Olu Fashanu would be starting by now, he struggled in his two starts this season, filling in due to injury, and the team quickly turned to veteran Morgan Moses.
New England coming back from London is very much on quit watch. It really has been a tale of two seasons for the Patriots in just seven weeks. In the first three weeks of the year, this defense allowed just 69 yards per game to opposing running backs as they looked like one of the best-run defenses in the NFL, holding opponents to just 3.6 yards per carry. Since Week 4, however, New England has allowed a league-leading 163 rushing yards per game as opponents gained 5.4 yards per carry against this defense. This is a defense that relied heavily on Jabrill Peppers, who was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt list after Week 4 and seems unlikely to return this season due to pending legal issues, which has forced Marte Mapu into the safety that plays in the box and he has struggled with that role as he has just six solo tackles this season. The Patriots also have clear issues at the linebacker position as they have benched Raekwon McMillan after he was consistently one of the worst run-stoppers in the NFL and have replaced him with Christian Elliss, who has been a journeyman linebacker who is on his fifth team since 2021. How motivated this team will be after a 1-6 start will likely determine if this team has any hope of improving over the remaining ten games, but with an already under-talented defensive roster, it will be difficult to see improvement this season.
LA Chargers vs New Orleans
The Chargers rushing offense has returned to reality after their unsustainable start to the season. However, the pendulum is starting to swing back the other way, and this week will be a big indicator as far as where this team is offensively. Over the first two weeks of the season, J.K. Dobbins ran for 130 yards or more in each of those two games, averaging 9.9 yards per carry. However, in the four games since then, he's averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and has been held under 50 yards in three of those four games. The good news for Dobbins is that the team continues to stick by him after he largely forced them to eliminate the committee approach with Gus Edwards after his strong start to the season. Despite the struggles over the last four games, Dobbins has at least 14 carries in each contest. This offensive line has invested heavily in their tackle position over the last two years, and it is starting to pay off. Rookie right tackle Joe Alt has been one of the best rookie offensive linemen, while 2021 first-round pick Rashawn Slater has been one of the most consistent left tackles in the NFL in his four seasons.
New Orleans's run defense has completely fallen apart over recent weeks. Since Week 3, the Saints have allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs, as they allow 144 rushing yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. New Orleans has allowed three running backs to top 100 yards in their last five games, as Saquon Barkley, Sean Tucker, and Kareem Hunt were all able to top the 100-yard mark. This is a Saints team that, due to cap issues, has been forced to try to rebuild their defensive line, and it has completely failed. The interior of Nathan Shepard and 2023 first-round pick Bryan Bresee make up the worst defensive tackle duo in the NFL, while Chase Young has never been a run-stopper at defensive end. Linebacker Demario Davis has covered up a lot of the issues that the Saints have had in recent seasons, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old has seen a significant decline this season after five consecutive All-Pro seasons.
Arizona at Miami
This season, James Conner has been one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. Last week, Conner topped 100 yards rushing for the third time this season in a 17-15 win against the Chargers. For Conner, the issue has always been consistency with volume, which has held him back, as he traditionally has been the running back who has averaged 13-15 carries per game instead of the 15-17 range, which we see from the highest fantasy scorers. The good news for Conner is that outside of a game script loss to Green Bay in which Arizona was never competitive, and a game against Detroit, who has one of the league's best-run defenses, Conner is averaging 18.6 carries per game. So, in this favorable matchup, as long as Arizona can keep this competitive, we should expect a big day from Conner this week.
Miami is quickly turning into a funnel defense. They have one of the league's best pass defenses, but teams have turned to a run-heavy approach against this defense as they allow 113 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season on 24 carries per game. Where the Dolphins have struggled the most, however, is in the red zone. This team allows 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, which is second in the NFL this season. This team has a strong defensive line led by 38-year-old Calais Campbell, who continues to be one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL. Alongside Campbell, Zach Sieler has been a solid defensive lineman throughout his career. The issues for the Dolphins are at the linebacker and safety positions. Miami tried to completely rebuild their safety units, bringing in former AFC East opponents Marcus Maye and Jordan Poyer, and it just hasn't worked. At age 33, Poyer has slowed down considerably and is now one of the worst run-stopping safeties in the NFL this season. At linebacker, the Dolphins relied on David Long Jr, who hasn't looked healthy all season as the linebacker is dealing with a knee injury and has been a liability stopping the run this season. The good news for Miami is that with Tua Tagovailoa coming back this week, the rushing volume that the Dolphins see should decrease as teams will need to keep up with the high-powered Dolphins offense, which is how the team was built this offseason prioritizing the pass defense over the run defense.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Las Vegas vs Kansas City
For now, the Raiders are committing to making this Alexander Mattison's backfield. Despite Zamir White returning from injury, Mattison had 23 carries to White's three carries in the team's loss to the Rams last week. This has been one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL this season, as they're 30th in rushing yards and yards-per-carry, 32nd in first-down rushing attempts, and 30th in runs over 20 yards. The shift from White to Mattison likely will not fix their issues, as he's only averaging 3.6 yards per carry, even after a 92-yard performance last week against the Rams. Mattison does provide dimensionality when it comes to being a far superior receiver and pass blocker than White. The issues for the Raiders run deeper than just their running backs, as their offensive line is amongst the worst in the NFL this season. The Raiders have a massive issue at center as Andre James has struggled with run blocking, as has rookie left guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, who was not intended to be relied upon this season but was forced into the starting lineup when Cody Whitehair was benched back in Week 4.
Kansas City's run defense has been remarkable in 2024. This team is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season, which leads the NFL. What is even more impressive about this Steve Spagnuolo defense is the schedule that they've faced. This team has shut down the league's best running backs, including Derrick Henry (46 yards on 13 carries), Bijan Robinson (31 yards on 16 carries), J.K. Dobbins (32 yards on 14 carries), Alvin Kamara (26 yards on 11 carries), and Jordan Mason (58 yards on 14 carries). This is a defense that likely has two All-Pros on their front seven, as Chris Jones has been First-Team All-Pro each of the last two seasons, while linebacker Leo Chenal is quickly emerging as one of the league's best linebackers. Next to Chenal is Nick Bolton, who is an elite run-stopping specialist.
Cleveland vs Baltimore
Nick Chubb returned to Cleveland last week, and while he was able to find the end zone, he struggled in his first game in over a year, as he had just 11 carries for 22 yards. While it is too early to panic regarding Chubb's future production, there are some concerns heading into the remainder of the season. The Browns will be without Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the year, and the offensive line, while it is starting to get healthy, continues to be a problem as the loss of offensive line coach Bill Callahan this offseason seems to have been a massive downgrade for the Browns. Cleveland has also handed the play-calling responsibilities to Ken Dorsey as they have removed Kevin Stefanski as a play-caller. While Dorsey doesn't have a significant amount of experience as a play caller, he does have a pass-heavy approach as the Bills running backs averaged just 18 total carries per game. If this continues, we can likely expect the Browns to be cautious with Chubb's return, giving him 13-14 carries per game while still mixing in Pierre Strong Jr, who was on the field for 50% of the snaps last week.
Baltimore's run defense is on pace to be one of the best run-stopping units that we've seen in several seasons. On the year, they're allowing just 52 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. This is a true funnel defense as they have one of the league's best run-stopping units and one of the league's worst pass defenses combined with a high-scoring offense that forces defenses to throw against them. On the defensive line, this is a unit that has three players in Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, and Nnamdi Madubuike, who combined weigh 1,000 pounds, whose sole job is to keep blockers off of Roquan Smith, who is second in the NFL in tackles as the linebacker is on pace to be an All-Pro for the fifth straight season. This is a defense that has not allowed a running back to top 50 yards this season, and while they have yet to play some of the elite running backs this season, it is a defense that will simply overwhelm most offensive lines.
Carolina at Denver
The outlook for the Carolina Panthers has to start at the quarterback position. The Panthers will be starting Bryce Young this week after Andy Dalton suffered a thumb injury in a car accident this week. When Young was the starter for Carolina, the rushing upside was non-existent. This is an offense that scored just 13 total points in the two starts that Bryce Young made this season, which has led the Panthers to abandon the run due to a negative game script. In those two Bryce Young starts, Chuba Hubbard averaged just eight carries per game compared to 17.4 since Dalton took over. The good news for Carolina is that the offensive line has exceeded expectations, largely led by the two most important positions on the offensive line, center and left tackle. Center Brady Christensen replaced Austin Corbett, who was placed on IR and has done a tremendous job run-blocking this season, while former first-round pick Ikem Ekwonu is developing into one of the league's best run-blockers and has shown tremendous growth in his third year in the NFL.
Denver's defense has been one of the surprises this season. The Broncos' run defense is a significant reason why the Broncos are now 4-3 on the year and firmly in playoff contention. Last week, we saw Denver completely shut down Alvin Kamara, holding him to just 10 yards on 7 carries in what was his worst performance since 2021. Since linebacker Alex Singleton tore his ACL in Week 3, Justin Strnad has emerged as an elite run-stopper. In his last three games, Strnad has an incredible 18 solo tackles. Strnad, alongside Cody Barton, makes up a very solid run-stopping unit. Safety Brandon Jones has continued to develop and has taken a significant growth step in his fifth season after coming over from the Dolphins this offseason. Sean Payton and Vance Joseph are among the best coaching staff in the NFL.
Green Bay at Jacksonville
Green Bay's rushing offense has been one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the NFL in 2024. The Packers are fourth in rushing attempts, third in yards, and sixth in yards-per-carry this year. Both Josh Jacobs as a primary runner and Emmanuel Wilson as a complimentary running back have excelled as defenses have to prepare for the Packers' dangerous passing attack with weapons all over the field. While we saw Josh Jacobs run for 32 carries for 151 yards back in Week 2, that seems to be an extreme outlier that is unlikely to happen again this season. Jacobs has been extremely consistent, as he has run between 62 and 76 yards in each of his last three games. If there's a concern in Green Bay, it is the interior of their offensive line as center Josh Myers has struggled in his fourth season, as have Sean Rhyan and Elgton Jenkins at the guard position. This is a team that will exploit matchups and run behind emerging star right tackle Zach Tom.
Jacksonville's run defense, on paper, should not be putting up the type of numbers that they are this season. This is a defense with significant holes on their roster, but they are only allowing 73 rushing yards per game this season, which is 7th in the NFL. During the season, only one running back has topped 75 yards against Jacksonville, which was D'Andre Swift in Week 6. The Jaguars' defensive numbers have largely been propped up by two things, which is the pass funnel defense of having amongst the league's worst secondaries, along with the schedule being favorable as their division has been decimated by injuries to Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor that have both been out when Jacksonville played those teams. Former first-round linebacker Devin Lloyd has emerged as an elite run-stopping linebacker in his third season, along with second-year run-stopping specialist Ventrel Miller, have been able to solidify this defense. Miller did not become a starter until Week 4 but is tied for the team lead in tackles this season. However, with Foyesade Oluokun possibly returning this week, Miller would likely be relegated back to the bench or brought in on clear rushing plays, as he is one of the worst coverage linebackers in the NFL this season.
NY Giants at Pittsburgh
We could be seeing a change in the running back position in New York this week. While it's difficult to make definitive statements in a 28-3 blowout loss for the Giants, Tyrone Tracy Jr. was on the field for 67% of the snaps compared to Devin Singletary, who was on the field for just 21% of snaps. While this would normally indicate a clear change, Singletary was coming back from injury, so it is possible that the team was cautious with Singletary, especially after the game got out of hand. However, Tracy has been the more effective running back, and for the 2-5 Giants, it is likely time for them to start looking for a spark behind the rookie 5th-round pick. Tracy is not a typical rookie, as he turns 25 in November, and in his two games as the starter, he averaged 17.5 carries for 89.5 yards. With Singletary averaging just 3.9 yards-per-carry and not providing much as a receiver, the Giants are likely to look at continuing to keep Tracy as the top back in New York as long as he keeps performing.
As good as Pittsburgh's defense has been this season, there is another level that they have not yet been able to get to when it comes to stopping the run. On the season, they're allowing 71 rushing yards per game, which is the 4th-best in the NFL, but if this defense fully comes together, is the most talented unit in the NFL defensively This is a team that has two locks for First-Team All-Pro in Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt, while also having both of their safeties in DeShon Elliott and Minkah Fitzpatrick who are in consideration for All-Pro status this season. Meanwhile, at linebacker, the Steelers have the best run-stopping specialist in the NFL, as Elandon Roberts creates havoc in short-yardage situations. Pittsburgh has allowed two running backs to top 50 yards this season as Rico Dowdle and Jonathan Taylor went for 87 and 88 yards in Week 4 and 5. The big question for the Steelers will be at linebacker and whether rookie Payton Wilson continues to develop this season, as he's been inconsistent at times, which could lead the Steelers to look to increase Elandon Roberts' playing time in more potential running situations.
