Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Washington vs Carolina
The big question for Washington heading into this week is the health of Brian Robinson Jr. The third-year running back has said all the right things that he is feeling back to his usual self after suffering a knee injury, but he was just a limited participant at practice on Wednesday. This running game needs Robinson after being completely shut down last week by Baltimore. Austin Ekeler was the featured back but had nine carries for 21 yards, producing more as a receiver than a running back, while Jeremy McNichols had just two carries. Having the threat of Robinson to go along with Jayden Daniels will significantly take the burden off of the rookie quarterback, as the offense can once again be two-dimensional.
Over the last two seasons, no defense has been as bad at stopping the run as Carolina. This defense has made questionable roster moves, had terrible injury luck, and negative game scripts, all leading to their league-leading 134 rushing yards allowed per game. Last week, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 200 rushing yards, making them the fourth team to top 130 rushing yards against this defense. The issue for Carolina is quite simple. This is a defense that chose to get worse at the linebacker position, bringing in Josey Jewell, who is an off-ball linebacker, while letting Frankie Luvu, who was the team's leading tackler, depart to Washington. Luvu is not a great linebacker, but at least he's a guy who can consistently make tackles. Then, making matters worse, Jewell and Shaq Thompson, the team's two starting linebackers, both get injured, leaving an absolute mess at the position as rookie Trevin Wallace, along with 2023 undrafted free agent Claudin Cherelus, who is essentially a rookie as he did not play at all in 2023 are your starting linebackers. Meanwhile, the defensive line has done no favors for this linebacking unit as the team chose to allow Brian Burns to depart this offseason, bringing in Ja'Deveon Clowney, who is just a pass rusher at this point in his career, leaving the defensive line incredibly thin. So, when your Pro Bowl-caliber defensive tackle Derrick Brown is lost for the year, you're relying on guys such as A'Shawn Robinson and DeShawn Williams, who are just not NFL-caliber starters. It will take a complete overhaul of this defense in the offseason to rebuild it back to the days when it was one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL each year.
Carolina at Washington
The Panthers' rushing attack continues to be successful, thanks to Chuba Hubbard. Since Andy Dalton has been named the starter, Hubbard has topped at least 90 rushing yards in all four games. Hubbard is also averaging 5.8 yards-per-carry over the last four weeks which is third in the NFL. While Jonathon Brooks' window to return has opened, it likely will not be this week, and at this point, the Panthers will be unlikely to make a change unless they trade Hubbard or he starts to struggle. One thing the Panthers have succeeded at for the 2024 season is building an offensive line. 2022 first-round pick Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle has developed into a solid producer. Like most teams, this offensive line has had to deal with injury as they lost center Austin Corbett, but backup Brady Christensen has been a solid run-blocker at the position.
Washington's run defense has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2024 season. Last week, they could not stop Baltimore's rushing attack as Derrick Henry ran for 132 yards and two touchdowns against this Washington defense. With Dan Quinn in charge, a significant effort has been made to fix the pass defense, which has considerably improved given the lack of talent that they have in that secondary. However, fixing that part of the defense has created another hole, as this run defense has allowed 119 rushing yards per game. This defense has allowed 100 yards or more to Derrick Henry and James Conner this season. The linebackers are strong here in Washington as they brought in Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner this offseason, but the issue is on the defensive line. Last season, the Commanders traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young and have downgraded significantly as rookie second-round pick Jer'Zhan Newton has been one of the worst defensive ends in football, while Phidarian Mathis, who was the team's 2022 second-round pick, has struggled on the defensive line. This is a defense that lost Jonathan Allen, and while Allen is a long way removed from his 2021 and 2022 Pro Bowl seasons, he is still an athletic body that the team will be without the former first-round pick for the remainder of the season.
Tennessee at Buffalo
Despite no resemblance of a passing game, Tony Pollard continues to produce. Last week, the Titans threw for just 95 yards on 27 passes as Will Levis, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley continued to struggle, but for Pollard, he had 93 rushing yards and a touchdown. For Pollard this season, he has at least 60 yards in four of his five games. Pollard is producing in spite of having one of the league's worst offensive lines. This is a unit that invested heavily in the left side as 2024 first-round pick JC Latham, and 2023 first-round pick Peter Skoronski both have struggled while at right tackle the Titans made a change to Leroy Watson benching Nicholas Petit-Friere but that has not worked out thus far as there are still major issues at right tackle. The offensive line and limited passing ability will limit the upside of Pollard on a week-to-week basis, but he continues to show that he's a dynamic running back who can have breakaway speed, as he has three 20+ yard carries in his five games this season.
The Buffalo defense that they're starting in 2024 is far different from the Buffalo defenses we were used to, which were elite run-stopping safeties and linebackers with a defensive line that was designed to rush the passer. Through injuries to linebacker Matt Milano and the departures of aging veterans Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, this defense has not been able to adjust in 2024. On the season, Buffalo is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as they've allowed 100-yard performances in two of the last three weeks to Breece Hall and Derrick Henry. Terrel Bernard has struggled as a middle linebacker but has received no support from the defensive line, as Ed Oliver is just an interior pass-rush guy at this point in his career. He often seems uninterested in stopping the run, while Dawaune Smoot and DaQuan Jones are simply overmatched.
Atlanta vs Seattle
After struggling the first few weeks, Atlanta's offense has quickly emerged as one of the league's most dynamic, but also one of the league's most frustrating for fantasy managers. The committee backfield of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson continues to be a low-volume, highly productive unit, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. While Bijan Robinson has seen more volume, it has been Allgeier who has been the more productive of the two, which has caused his snap count to increase up to 40% over the last three games compared to 20% over the first three weeks. Meanwhile, Robinson, who has by no means been bad, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, has seen his snap volume decrease by 60% over the last three weeks. From a football perspective, unless one of these running backs struggles, it is hard to see them getting away from this approach of having the two running backs split time, with Allgeier being more of the traditional runner and Robinson seeing more playing time if the game script leads towards the team falling behind as he is the better receiver amongst the two.
Seattle's run defense over the last three weeks seems to be falling apart. The combination of Jordan Mason/Isaac Guerendo ran for 172 yards last week, while Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran for 129 in Week 5, and the committee of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery ran for 118 yards and three touchdowns. The concerning part about this for Seattle is that they've stayed relatively healthy all season, so there is not an injury that you can point towards that will say once they get these players back, the issues will be fixed. One of the big issues is that this is a defensive line that is built to rush the passer, and they're relying heavily on Johnathan Hankins at defensive tackle to clog up the middle of the field. Hankins came into the league as a strong, athletic defensive tackle, but now, in year 12, the past couple of seasons have largely been on these struggling defenses, hoping for a big, experienced body in the middle of the field to clog up space. This is also a defensive line that does not rotate nearly as much as other teams. Having a player who is 330 pounds, such as Hankins, play 60-70% of the snaps while Jarran Reed, Dre'Mont Jones, and Leonard Williams are playing 70-80% of the snaps is going to wear down your defensive line quickly, putting a lot of pressure on linebackers Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker as the team desperately misses a veteran linebacker presence of Bobby Wagner.
Jacksonville vs New England
Jacksonville's rushing is a complicated mess at the moment. Travis Etienne Jr. has been injured for most of the season. He started the season with a shoulder injury and has never looked right throughout the year. Last week, he had just three carries for negative one yards against the Bears and was on the field for just 18% of the plays. After the game, Doug Pederson said that Etienne is “week-to-week,” but then Etienne was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice, which could be an indication that he is able to play this upcoming week. Despite Etienne playing just 18% of the plays, D'Ernest Johnson and not Tank Bigsby saw most of the snaps last week, as Johnson saw 56% of the snaps compared to Bigsby's 27%. This is likely a game-script situation as despite Bigsby getting off to a fantastic season averaging 7.2 yards-per-carry, he's not proven himself to be effective in the passing game at all, as he has caught just one pass on the season. The Bears got out to an early lead that was never really in doubt, as they ended up winning the game 35-16. If Etienne were to miss, it would likely be a split backfield with Johnson and Bigsby, but the 1-5 Jaguars need to know what they have in the second-year 3rd round pick Bigsby and whether he is someone they can build around compared to Etienne, who will be entering his final year on his contract next season.
New England's run defense has fallen apart in recent weeks. After holding Cincinnati, Seattle, and the New York Jets to just 69 yards per game over the first three weeks of the season, the Patriots have allowed a staggering 165 yards per game over the last three weeks to Jordan Mason, Raheem Mostert/Jaylen Wright, and Joe Mixon. This defense is not very deep and has suffered some key injuries at linebacker and safety that have downgraded the play significantly. Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is on IR with a pectoral injury, which has forced Raekwon McMillan into a larger role. McMillan has been one of the worst run-stopping linebackers in the NFL since Week 3. In Week 4, the team also lost run-stopping specialist Jabrill Peppers as he's dealing with a shoulder injury and was placed on the Commissioner's exempt list for ongoing legal issues. The Patriots have had to choose whether to play Marte Mapu or Jaylinn Hawkins and have mostly gone with the coverage specialist Mapu, who has consistently struggled against the run.
Bottom 5 Matchups
San Francisco vs Kansas City
A big question heading into Week 7 is the health of Jordan Mason. Mason sprained his AC joint in his shoulder and left the Week 6 game. He has been practicing in a limited capacity, which, while is a positive sign for San Francisco, still leaves his availability in doubt as we won't know what portions of practice he was able to participate in. If Mason were to miss, this is a significant downgrade for the 49ers, who will now be without their top three running backs to start the season. Isaac Guerendo would get the start for San Francisco, and while there's some excitement for the 4th-round pick out of Louisville, this is a player who is not necessarily a plug-and-play type of guy compared to Mason. Guerendo has tremendous size and speed at 6-0 and 225 pounds while running a 4.33 40-yard dash. However, there are visibility issues, such as him not relying nearly enough on his size, instead trying to hit the big play far too often. Also, despite his size and speed, he has not consistently shown that he can be the lead running back, as only once in his five seasons at Louisville did he have over 15 carries in a game, which was his final game.
Kansas City's linebacking unit is quickly emerging as one of the best in the NFL. Led by third-year player Leo Chenal, who has quickly emerged as one of the league's best run-stoppers. Alongside Chenal, Nick Bolton was drafted by the Chiefs in 2021 as the two linebackers have quickly developed chemistry playing alongside each other in their fourth season. On the defensive line, Chris Jones continues to play at an All-Pro level, as the dynamic defensive lineman can lineup at any position on the defensive line, exposing mismatches. In 2024, the Chiefs are allowing just 53 rushing yards per game as they have completely shut down some of the league's best running backs, including Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and J.K. Dobbins.
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore
Tampa Bay should get Rachaad White back this week after the running back missed last week's game against the Saints. The question will be what role he is coming back to after both Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving dominated the Saints, running for a combined 217 yards against this defense as the Buccaneers won 51-27. Tucker has been extremely impressive in a limited workload as he has just 16 carries on the season but has a staggering six carries of 10 or more yards, while Rachaad White has 51 carries and just 4 carries of 10 or more yards. This offense is exceeding expectations and will likely be forced into at least a committee over the next couple of weeks to figure out which running back they want to lean on heading into the postseason aspirations. Rachaad White has not been great this season as a runner, averaging just 3.7 yards-per-carry, but he does a lot of other things well as a receiver and a pass blocker, so there certainly will be a role for him in this offense, just what that role is after last week's performances is difficult to project especially if Tucker or Irving come out strong on their limited carries this week.
Baltimore's run defense continues to be the gold standard of run defenses over the last several seasons. While Roquan Smith gets all of the praise and awards for being a four-time All-Pro, it's largely thanks to this defensive line built for Smith that has enabled him to become such a great linebacker. If there's one downside in Smith's game, it has been consistently shedding blockers, but with 340-pound Travis Jones, 355-pound Michael Pierce, and 310-pound Nnamdi Madubuike, the Ravens have 1,000 pounds of defensive lineman making life incredibly difficult for the offensive lineman to get a push against this defense. On the season, Baltimore allows just 45 rushing yards per game with no running back topping 50 yards against this defense. This is a defense with star power all over the place as safety Kyle Hamilton is once again back to playing at an All-Pro level, while 34-year-old Kyle Van Noy is having a career resurgence in Baltimore this season.
Detroit vs Minnesota
The committee of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continues to pay off for the Lions this season. The stat lines for the two players are almost identical, with Montgomery running for 351 yards on 75 carries while Gibbs is at 348 yards on 66 carries. While Gibbs has the higher yards-per-attempt, it's Montgomery that they're using on more of the short yardage and goal line type plays as he has scored six touchdowns compared to Gibbs' 3. Driving this efficient running game continues to be one of the league's best offensive lines. This is a veteran unit that has elite run-blockers at every position as tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker are arguably the best tackle tandem in the NFL, while veteran Kevin Zeitler at right guard is an elite run-blocker, and Frank Ragnow is one of the game's best centers. This is a cohesive unit that has had injury luck on their side through the first six weeks, and if they can stay healthy, it will make a difficult unit for any defense.
Minnesota's run defense is a funnel defense. During the year, Minnesota has faced just 15 rushing attempts per game, allowing just 57 yards per contest. In this scenario, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, combined with an electric offense with a positive game script for most games. However, don't be fooled, as this defense can still shut down rushing attacks and almost any defense in the NFL this season. In Week 5, Minnesota shut down the Jet's offense, holding Breece Hall to just 23 yards on nine carries, while the only running back to top 60 yards this season is Jordan Mason, who had 100 yards on 20 carries and was the only running back to score a touchdown against Minnesota on the year. This defense is led by stopping the big play, as safeties Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum are both solid run-stoppers, while linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. has emerged as a run-stopping specialist while being a liability in pass coverage. With the Vikings having a bye in Week 6, expect them to come out ready to stop Detroit's elite rushing offense.
Minnesota vs Detroit
Minnesota has some big questions as we head into Week 7 at the running back position. The team traded for Cam Akers this week after the bye week. The big concern here is that Aaron Jones is dealing with a hamstring injury and is “not sure” that he will play come Sunday after not practicing on Wednesday. If Jones were to miss, this is a significant downgrade to this offense as Ty Chandler has been inconsistent thus far this season, averaging just 3.5 yards-per-carry, and in his extended usage in Week 5, he had just 14 carries for 30 yards against the Jets. This offensive line is built from the outside in, as they have elite run-blocking tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill, but the interior has issues at the guard position. Jones, when healthy, is amongst the game's best running backs as he's able to utilize his unique vision and lateral movement to create his own running lanes.
Detroit's run defense suffered a significant loss last week due to the injury to Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a broken tibia and will likely miss the remainder of the season. While Hutchinson is both an elite run-stopper and pass rusher, the injury will impact the Lions much more on the pass defense than it will on the run defense side of the ball. This defense is one of the most talented units we've seen in several seasons when it comes to stopping the run. The Lions should still be one of the best units in football. Led by their two elite run-stopping defensive tackles, Alim McNeill and DJ Reader, who free up the rest of the defense to be able to focus on making tackles rather than shedding blocks. At safety, the Lions have two elite run-stopping safeties: Brian Branch, who lines up as a linebacker on 31% of plays, and Kirby Joseph, who lines up in the box on 57% of plays. The only running back to top 50 yards against this defense so far has been Ken Walker III, back in week 4 in the shootout game against the Seahawks, but the Lions have completely shut down Kyren Williams, Rico Dowdle, James Conner, and Rachaad White this season.
Buffalo vs Tennessee
The Bills found a potential future running back in Ray Davis after James Cook missed last week's game against the Jets. Ray Davis looked fantastic with 97 yards on 20 carries as he was consistently able to move the ball, averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry with no carry longer than 15 yards against a very good Jets defense. James Cook was limited in practice on Wednesday and is questionable once again this week. Cook has been great this season, averaging 4.4 yards-per-carry, and will return to the lead role, but Ray Davis has solidified himself into having a role in this offense and should get back to having the 7-9 carries per week that he had prior to Cook missing last week.
Tennessee's defense has been a large reason why they've been competitive this season despite having one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Titans have invested heavily into their defensive line and safeties, and it has been largely paying off with a very good run defense. Led by Jeffery Simmons, this defense is allowing just 72 yards per game, which is the fifth-best in the NFL, and is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. If there is some concern, it is that the Titans have not faced some of the league's best running backs, but they have faced some very good ones in Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall, De'Von Achane, and D'Andre Swift, who have averaged just 3.1 yards-per-carry against this season. Safeties Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs are able to cover up some of the holes that this team has at linebacker as Kenneth Murray Jr. continues to be one of the league's worst run-stoppers as he has throughout his career despite being a first-round draft pick in 2020.
