Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Houston vs Buffalo
The big question for the Texans this week will be the health of Joe Mixon, as he did not participate in Wednesday’s practice, although there remains some optimism that he could return this week. In a limited sample size, we’ve seen that this is a much better offense with Mixon in the lineup than with Cam Akers through the first four weeks. With Mixon, the Texans showed that if they need to, they’ll run the ball 30 times to get the victory as Mixon dominated his only full game of the season, rushing for 159 yards against the Colts. With Akers, however, this is a completely different offense as everything just becomes much more predictable. Akers struggles to catch the ball, so when he’s in the game, it’s extremely likely going to be a running play compared to Dare Ogunbowale, who is the receiving back. With Mixon, he provides that dynamic threat that allows this offense to be less predictable and has more success on the ground as defenses must defend against one of the league’s best wide receiver trios in Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell, who should return from injury this week.
Buffalo has undergone a significant number of changes within their defense over the last several seasons, and it is starting to catch up with them. This offseason, the Bills lost their elite run-stopping safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, replacing them with a significant drop-off in Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp. Injuries and suspensions have also hit the Bills as the team lost their star linebacker Matt Milano before the season with a torn bicep, linebacker Terrel Bernard who was the team’s leading tackler in 2023 is dealing with a pectoral injury and was a limited participant in practice, and along the defensive line this week Von Miller was suspended for four games. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Bills have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as James Conner, De'Von Achane, and Derrick Henry all put up massive games against this defense with Henry last week topping them all with 199 yards a touchdown and adding a receiving touchdown.
Chicago vs Carolina
After the first three weeks, the Bears’ rushing attack was on pace to be one of the worst that we’ve seen in multiple years. However, that quickly changed as they took advantage of the Rams' depleted defense, as D'Andre Swift ran for 93 yards on 16 carries, including a 36-yard touchdown. This is a team that wants to be able to run the ball with their trio of Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Khalil Herbert, but is significantly impacted by the offensive line which remains amongst the league’s worst. In the three games before his 93yard outbreak, Swift had just 68 total yards on 37 carries, with 20 of those 68 yards coming on one carry. The big question going forward will be which offense we see going forward, as Swift still has an overwhelming command on the snap count being on the field for about 65% of the plays, but the team needs to establish a more consistent running game this season to help Caleb Williams and this passing attack be more consistent.
After being one of the worst run defenses in 2023, did very little to improve the unit in 2024 and it is showing. Through the first four games of the season, the Panthers have allowed at least 80 rushing yards per game in three of those four games as Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and Chase Brown all topped 80 yards and scored a touchdown. Touchdowns have been a big problem for the Panthers on the ground as they’ve allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs through the first four weeks which is second in the NFL. While the roster took a downgrade losing Frankie Luvu and replacing him with Josey Jewell over the offseason, injuries could also be a major factor this week. Leading tackler Shaq Thompson was lost for the season with a torn Achilles injury, while Jewell is looking unlikely to play this week with a hamstring injury. While most teams can withstand injuries at the linebacker position, Carolina is not in that position as they don’t have the run-stoppers along the defensive line to free up the linebackers from having to shed blocks. Derrick Brown, the team’s one bright spot was lost for the season at defensive tackle. This is a situation where the team will need to rely on third-round rookie Trevin Wallace and undrafted second-year linebacker Claudin Cherelus to overcome one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL, all while having to call the plays as Wallace will be expected to be the defensive signal caller which is an extremely difficult task for a rookie who likely has been thrown into it given Jewell was likely the backup for Thompson given his veteran status.
Green Bay at LA Rams
The Packers’ rushing offense is a difficult one to figure out. In Week 2, this team gave the ball 32 times to Josh Jacobs as he dominated Indianapolis, running for 151 yards, and then they have since limited him to just 11.5 carries per game over the next two games. The consistency in carries is not a new phenomenon in Matt LaFleur’s offense, as they would frequently do this with Aaron Jones, but as fantasy managers, it can be infuriating. The one thing to keep an eye on here is the role of Emmanuel Wilson. Over the last two weeks, Wilson has seen his snap count increase from around 20% in Weeks 1 and 2 to 40% in Weeks 3 and 4. Wilson is a large back in the AJ Dillon mold as he is 5-10 and 230 pounds, so the team likely could be looking to go back to that two-headed committee that we saw for so many years with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jacobs, through four games, has been fantastic, averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry, and despite not scoring a touchdown through the first four weeks, he has been getting the opportunities as he has 14 red zone opportunities compared to just 2 for the bigger Wilson, which is encouraging going forward.
The Rams defense is an absolute mess in 2024. This team was not prepared for life after Aaron Donald, as the future Hall of Famer covered up a significant number of holes within this defense. Through the first four games, the Rams have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing running backs as opponents are rushing for 131 yards per game. Last week, we saw D'Andre Swift torch this defense on the ground for 93 yards and a touchdown, and he also added 72 receiving yards. This was a Bears offense that was simply incapable of running the ball before this game. The linebackers and defensive line lack identity in 2024, as linebackers Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder have both struggled, while on the defensive line, they’re rotating players throughout the defense trying to find advantageous spots for the rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, but the team just has significant holes as Neville Gallimore and Bobby Brown III both have been subpar to start 2024.
Cleveland at Washington
Cleveland is in desperation mode after falling to 1-3 with a road loss to Las Vegas. This offense desperately needs a consistent running game to set up everything they’re trying to do with a play-action pass. This offense has been built around Nick Chubb, and heading into the season, the Browns thought Jerome Ford could be that type of player. But throughout his two-year career, Ford has proven that he is a good change-of-pace runner and third-down back but experiences significant diminishing returns the more carries that he gets. The Browns have run the ball at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL this season after running it at the fourth-highest in the 2023 season. The offensive line for the Browns continues to be an issue as it appears unlikely that Jack Conklin or Jedrick Wills, the team’s two starting tackles, will play this week after missing practice on Wednesday. Ethan Pocic, the team’s starting center, could also miss with an ankle injury.
It’s amazing how a run defense can completely fall apart within just one calendar year. At the start of the 2023 season, this was a defense that had one of the best defensive lines in football as they had four first-round picks on the line and a bad pass defense that propped up their run defense even more as teams didn’t try to run the ball against this defense. Then the team traded Chase Young and Montez Sweat mid-season last year, and the run defense completely fell off and has shown no signs of recovery through the first four games this season. The Commanders added both Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu this offseason, who are two of the better tackling linebackers in the NFL, but even they have been unable to make up for the abysmal defensive line play this season. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are struggling up the middle; both have always been better pass rushers than run-stoppers. In 2024, Washington is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game. James Conner, Devin Singletary, and Zack Moss have all had big games against this defense.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
After struggling in Week 1, Derrick Henry has found a time machine back to 2020 Derrick Henry the last three weeks. In those games, Henry is averaging 145 rushing yards per game after a dominant 24 carry 199-yard performance last week against Buffalo. Henry has also shown a burst we haven’t seen in a few seasons, as he got to 21.29 miles per hour on his 87-yard touchdown run last week. This offensive line has surpassed the preseason expectations as center Tyler Linderbaum continues to improve in his third year in the NFL and is quickly becoming the game's best run-blocking center. The dynamic threat of Lamar Jackson and Henry should be a nightmare for defenses in 2024, as Jackson is averaging 77 rushing yards per game and has topped 50 yards in three of his four games this season.
The Bengals had to make some difficult decisions this offseason, and it is coming back to hurt them in their run defense. The team lost elite run-stopper DJ Reader this offseason and has struggled to find a replacement for the 330-pound defensive tackle. Injuries haven’t made things easier for an already thin defensive line as both Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill were injured in Week 2. Of the two, Rankins is the much more impactful player as the Bengals need him to improve off his slow start even before the injury as they signed him to a 2-year $25M contract, choosing Rankins over Reader for a very similar price point. Rankins did not practice on Wednesday and could miss another week. If he does, Zach Carter, who has not shown an ability to be an every-down starter, will get another start on the defensive line. Through four weeks, this defense has allowed 90 rushing yards or more to Rhamondre Stevenson, Isiah Pacheco, and Chuba Hubbard.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Cincinnati vs Baltimore
Cincinnati’s committee approach to their rushing offense has largely worked and exceeded expectations in 2024. While this remains a pass-heavy offense, as they’ve run for the fifth-fewest rushing attempts on the season, it’s been a highly efficient offense running for 4.6 yards per carry. Chase Brown has excelled in his complementary role to Zack Moss this season, but if there is a player that has more upside of the two, it would be Brown. Last week, we saw Brown’s workload and carry volume increase as he was on the field for 40% of the snaps and saw 15 carries compared to just 14 total in his three prior games. On the other hand, Moss is a league-average running back. He’s a player who will not hurt your offense if you give him 13-16 carries, as he'll likely end up around 4.0 yards per carry, no matter what offense he’s in. But he lacks that upside, which is something to keep an eye on, as the 1-3 Bengals are in desperation mode this week in a difficult matchup against Baltimore before going on the road for the next two weeks.
Baltimore’s run defense continues to be amongst the league’s best units. In 2024, only one running back has topped 40 yards rushing, which was Isiah Pacheco in Week 1, who had 45 yards on 15 carries. This defense allows just 43 rushing yards per game as teams try to beat the Ravens through the air as their pass defense is much more susceptible. This run defense is based on having a space-eating defensive lineman led by 340-pound Travis Jones to free up the linebackers to make tackles. Roquan Smith is amongst the league’s best tacklers when not having to deal with shedding blocks, which he can be inconsistent at. On the edge of this defense, Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy are off to tremendous seasons in Baltimore.
New Orleans at Kansas City
Throughout the first four weeks, Alvin Kamara is on pace to break every rushing career-high number over this eight-year career. Through four games, Kamara is averaging 20 carries per game compared to his career high of 18.4 and his career average of 13.3. Kamara has been outstanding for the Saints as he has 75 rushing yards or more in each of his four games, and the only question at this point is whether he can keep up the pace as the Saints seem to be giving him all the volume that he can handle in this Klint Kubiak offense. The issue for the Saints is that they don’t have a consistent running back behind Kamara, as Jamaal Williams's time in New Orleans has been a disappointment. But Kendre Miller has been designated to return from IR and could return as soon as this week, but more likely next week. With Miller returning, expect a workload decrease for Kamara simply because it’s not sustainable for a team that has playoff aspirations.
Over the last few seasons, the Chiefs have prioritized stopping the run. They drafted well with Leo Chenel who has developed into one of the league’s best run-stoppers playing behind All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones who is a complete menace for an offensive lineman. This is a Chiefs defense that is allowing just 3.2 yards per game and 577 total rushing yards to opposing running backs as they completely shut down Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, and Zack Moss with no running back topping 50 yards all year. This is a defense that has complete confidence in their cornerbacks and can play more base alignment with three linebackers than most teams which only helps their run-stopping ability.
Dallas at Pittsburgh
Dallas seems to be on the verge of moving away from Ezekiel Elliott. Despite a favorable matchup against the Giants last week, Elliott had just five carries and was on the field for just 18% of the snaps. Meanwhile, Rico Dowdle led the team in carries with 11, but Hunter Luepke led the team in snaps, as he was on the field for 52% of the plays last week. Luepke is not really a threat to take over as a lead runner in Dallas, but more so indicative of what they’re trying to become, which is to try to get the 240-pound blocking back on the field to help out this offensive line that has struggled throughout the first four weeks of the season.
Pittsburgh’s defense has improved drastically compared to 2023. Through the first four weeks, this defense allows just 69 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs or 3.4 yards per carry. This defense will only improve throughout the season, as they made the right move last week to replace the struggling Elandon Roberts with rookie Payton Wilson, who looks like a steal in the third round of the 2024 draft. This is a defense that has amongst the best defensive lines in the NFL, led by All-Pro Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt, while also having elite run-stopping safeties in DeShon Elliott and Minkah Fitzpatrick, who lead the team in tackles. This is a defense that, as of now, will be able to shut down most rushing offenses but could still find some difficulty against the game’s elite, as we saw last week with Jonathan Taylor having 88 yards on 21 carries. This is due to the linebacker play, which will continue to improve now that Wilson should continue to gain experience and his workload continues to improve.
NY Jets at Minnesota
Breece Hall and the Jets struggled in a matchup that should have been exploitable last week against Denver. Hall had just 4 yards on 10 carries last week as the offense inexplicably was unable to move the ball in a critical loss against the Broncos. The dynamic Hall has been underwhelming so far this season, as he’s largely been a player who has the upside of the big play, but has just one carry longer than 20 yards this season, hasn’t topped 65 rushing yards, and has been more of a pass-catcher as Braelon Allen continues to have a role in the rushing game for the Jets. Allen is averaging 9 carries per game over the last three weeks and has been the better pure runner of the two, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
While Minnesota’s offense is getting all of the hype this season, their defense is a big reason they are 4-0 to start the year. While they did struggle against Jordan Mason back in Week 2, allowing 100 yards on 20 carries, this defense allows just 3.4 yards per carry to all other running backs this season. This is a well-coached defense by defensive coordinator Brian Flores that makes you earn every yard as linebacker Black Cashman and safety Harrison Smith are rarely out of position. The game script has also greatly influenced the Vikings' success through the first four weeks. This offense has been dynamic, forcing defenses to abandon the run as the Vikings have faced the third-fewest rush attempts on the season, which has contributed to allowing just 62 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
Arizona at San Francisco
James Conner and the Arizona offense have been as up and down as any team this season. Conner has topped 100 yards twice through four weeks but had just 17 and 50 yards in his other two games. Heading into 2024, this offensive line had very low expectations but has quietly been one of the bright spots on this team as second-year first-round pick Paris Johnson has shown why he was taken number six overall after struggling his rookie season. Meanwhile, center Hjalte Froholdt is an excellent run blocker alongside veteran Will Hernandez. This is an offense that will likely be able to win against favorable matchups and potentially struggle against loaded boxes. With the passing game struggling in Arizona, teams are going to continue to focus on stopping the running game until they can be more consistent through the air.
This is a week where a number of the elite run-stopping units are on a bye, so while San Francisco has not been the traditional elite run-stopping unit that we’ve become accustomed to this season, they still slot in as the fifth-worst rushing matchup on the week. After allowing Ty Chandler in Week 2 and Kyren Williams in Week 3 to both top 80 yards, this is a defense that got back on track last week against the Patriots, holding their rushing attack to just 3.2 yards per carry as Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson found very little room to run against this defense. This is a team that has a lot of new parts as they replaced a majority of their defensive line outside of Nick Bosa, and at linebacker are still missing Dre Greenlaw as De’Vondre Campbell has struggled trying to replace him alongside the league’s best linebacker Fred Warner. The good news for the 49ers is that they should be getting Talanoa Hufanga back this week after being a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Hufanga is an elite run-stopping safety, which is why he was a First Team All Pro in 2022. This defense has an All-Pro at every level, which very few defenses can claim and should only continue to improve throughout the season.
