Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Washington vs NY Giants
Jayden Daniels provides an electric spark to this offense that should get Commanders fans excited about the offense this season. Last week, Daniels ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler were less successful running the ball just 14 times for a combined 50 yards. It appears that the big issue for Robinson and Ekeler is going to be the number of points that the defense is going to let up, as while the team added Dan Quinn as their head coach, they kept a lot of the same personnel in the secondary which was the worst in the NFL in 2023, and will likely once again be amongst the worst in the NFL. If that is the case, and the defense does not improve, expect the Commanders to be trailing in a majority of games this season, which means we will see a lot of Daniels scrambling more than a designed handoff to Robinson. Ekeler mysteriously only had 2 carries in this game, which likely is an anomaly, as he was on the field for 53% of the snaps. Most of his work was in the passing game as he was the team's leading receiver.
The Giants are a mess of a run-stopping unit but are showing signs that they are willing to try new things to improve this unit. Last week, Aaron Jones ran for 94 yards on 14 carries against the Giants, and, had the game been close, he would have easily topped 100 yards as the team pulled him for most of the second half. What is interesting with the Giants in this game is that they switched their starting linebacker late in the week as they did not play Micah McFadden, who was active but did not see a snap. If Darius Mussau beat out McFadden, this would be good news for the Giants as McFadden has consistently been one of the league's worst run-stoppers, leading the NFL in missed tackle rate last season. What we don't know is why McFadden did not play. He was a full participant at practice with a groin injury, while Mussau did not practice with a knee injury. If McFadden slides back into the starting slot, expect the Giants to struggle throughout the season. The Giants need someone else on the defensive line to step up alongside All-Pro Dexter Lawrence II. 2022 5th overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux had zero tackles in Week 1, while their big free agent signee Brian Burns was also largely ineffective in stopping the run.
LA Chargers at Carolina
The Chargers' rushing attack was a bit of a surprise in Week 1, as JK Dobbins may be on his way to earning a bigger role within this offense. Dobbins was tremendous, rushing the ball 10 times for 135 yards, including a 61-yard run. The often-injured running back looked fully healthy after missing last season due to an Achilles injury in Week 1 last year. Meanwhile, Gus Edwards struggled to get going as he had just 26 yards on 11 carries. This is a Jim Harbaugh offense that will want to take a run-heavy approach in a Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman offense that decided not to keep both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason.
Carolina's run defense started 2024 the same way it ended 2023, allowing significant gains on the ground. The Panthers allowed 132 rushing yards to New Orleans in Week 1, and this week, face a Los Angeles team that will want to take a run-heavy approach on their path to victory. We wrote about it last week, but Carolina is still trying to figure out its identity on defense as they lost their leading tackler, Frankie Luvu, to Washington and replaced him with a traditional off-ball linebacker in Josey Jewell. At least in Week 1, it appears Shaq Thompson is going to be the primary run-stopping tackler for this offense, as he had 10 tackles, albeit 6 of them were assists. This team needs improvement across the board, but the interior of the defensive line put too much pressure on the linebackers this past week. Shy Tuttle, in particular, had one of his worst games in the NFL. The 29-year-old, who started his career off as a solid run-stopper in 2019, has been on the decline for the last several seasons.
Kansas City vs Cincinnati
Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs rushing attack struggled in Week 1. Outside of a 21-yard carry by Xavier Worthy for a touchdown, the Chiefs ran the ball 17 times for just 48 yards. The matchup was an extremely difficult one against Baltimore, so things will certainly improve, but this was an offensive line heading into the season that was expected to be one of the best units in football. Kansas City replaced Donovan Smith at left tackle this offseason by drafting 21-year-old Kingsley Suamataia. It's only one week, but it's extremely rare to find an NFL-caliber starting rookie with the last pick of the second round. So far, Suamataia does not look like an NFL-caliber selection and could be a weak spot for this team in the upcoming weeks. The interior offensive line is as good as it gets, led by center Creed Humphrey and left guard Joe Thuney.
A bad New England Patriots offensive line just shredded Cincinnati's run defense. This team, at least through one week, desperately misses DJ Reader as the space-eating 340-pound defensive tackle who is now in Detroit. They brought in veteran Sheldon Rankins, who has mostly been a league-average type of player throughout his career, but is only at 300 pounds and is not the dominant space eater that Reader was. While Logan Wilson at linebacker is a good run-stopper, he's certainly going to need to elevate his game to a great run-stopper if the team wants to have success, as the rest of the linebackers and safeties are guys who are better at stopping the pass.
New England vs Seattle
Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots ground out a win in Week 1. Stevenson was a workhorse with 25 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown. Antonio Gibson added another 7 carries but was far less successful as he amounted to just 18 yards, which should indicate that this is Stevenson's backfield for as much volume as he can handle. One injury to watch is Sidy Sowe, the team's lone non-participant in practice on Wednesday. Sow is starting at left guard due to 2022 first-round pick Cole Strange starting the year on the PUP list with a knee injury. This offensive line had low expectations to start the season as they were ranked 31st in Matt Bitonti's preseason rankings, and the team will have some turnover as they benched Chukwuma Okafor for Vederian Lowe at left tackle. Expectations are low for both players, and it's likely a scenario where both will see time as the team tries to figure out a long-term solution. However, running the ball can often hide offensive line issues, as it is far easier to find run-blockers than pass-blockers.
Seattle's run defense passed their first test against a Denver offense that struggled to move the ball with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin as the two ran for only 50 yards on 18 carries. This team is built to stop the pass, as their safeties Julian Love and Rayshawn Jenkins are both strong pass defenders, while linebacker Jerome Baker has always been a good coverage linebacker but has not had over 100 tackles over the last three seasons. Making matters worse for the Seahawks is that they could be without both linebackers this week as Baker is dealing with a hamstring injury, while Tyrel Dodson was a non-participant in practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. If one or both of these linebackers were to miss, this team gets thin very quickly at the position and would likely climb up a couple of additional spots. Meanwhile, if both players play, this team could far exceed their position in the rushing matchup rankings and slowly start improving their defensive ranking as the talent is here to stop the pass. Trusting their corners in one-on-one matchups, this could end up being a solid unit by year's end.
Baltimore vs Las Vegas
The Ravens are in an interesting situation heading into Week 2. Overall, their rushing attack was great, as they ran for 185 yards on 32 carries, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. However, the bad news is that their offensive line was horrendous, which played a significant role in why Derrick Henry was only able to run for 46 yards on 13 carries. Most of the success of the Ravens came through Lamar Jackson's rushing attack. While Lamar will be critical in the rushing game, this offense needs the right side of their offensive line to play better, as Daniel Faaele and Patrick Mekari both struggled. Mekari beat out second-round rookie Roger Rosengarten. With Derrick Henry unlikely to get anywhere close to the volume he had in Tennessee, he's going to need to be more productive to come close to his expectations. Lamar Jackson looked outstanding, but his 16 carries were the most he has had in a game since 2021.
Big plays were the killer for the Raiders this past week, as JK Dobbins broke off two long runs, including a 61-yard touchdown run, while the Chargers ran for 176 yards against the Raiders in Week 1. Las Vegas is a team heavily invested in their defensive line with Maxx Crosby and by signing Christian Wilkins to one of the largest defensive tackle contracts in the NFL. However, this puts a lot of pressure on the defensive line to make tackles at the point of attack, as the talent behind them is not great. Divine Deablo has been amongst the league's worst run-stopping linebackers over the last several seasons, while the safeties Marcus Epps and Tre'Von Moehrig are more pass defenders than run-stoppers. One bright spot for the Raiders this past week was Robert Spillane, who led the team with 10 tackles. Expect Spillane to put up significant tackle numbers playing behind a very good defensive line, but if Spillane doesn't make the tackle, then look out, as this team could give up big plays regularly.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Minnesota vs San Francisco
Aaron Jones did everything you could expect him to do in Week 1 in a favorable matchup against the Giants. In a blowout win, Jones ran the ball 14 times for 94 yards. The good news for Jones is that despite only getting 14 carries, his backup Ty Chandler struggled with 8 carries for just 17 yards, while Myles Gaskin had 1 carry for -3 yards. As we wrote up last week, this backfield is very likely going to be as much Aaron Jones as he can handle the ball as the game plan was to get Ty Chandler involved every third drive of the game as he came in on the third and sixth drives for Minnesota. This offensive line is a much better run-blocking unit than a pass-blocking one, so expect them to run the ball heavily to alleviate some of the pressure on Sam Darnold.
The 49ers rebuilt their defensive front seven this offseason and through Week 1 have shown that this is still expected to be an elite defense in 2024. Led by All-Pro's Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, those two players immediately elevate the talent around them on the defensive line and at linebacker. Despite Dre Greenlaw being out on the PUP list, the 49ers were able to shut down Breece Hall and the Jets rushing attack holding them to just 62 yards on 17 carries, which is expected to be one of the better rushing units in the NFL this season. The 49ers who had some risk at safety, may be getting Talanoa Hufanga back this week, which would be a significant return for the 49ers after suffering an ACL injury last season. Hufanga is a tackle machine and was a First-Team All-Pro in 2022, which would solidify this secondary and give the 49ers a First-Team All-Pro talent at each level of the defense.
Chicago at Houston
Chicago's rushing attack was non-existent last week in a difficult matchup against Tennessee. Despite the investments the Bears made at wide receiver this season with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Caleb Williams, the Titans were still comfortable stacking the box against the Bears run defense, trying to force Caleb Williams to beat them. The Bears running backs had just 14 rushes for 44 yards with D'Andre Swift having 10 carries. The Bears have some injury issues this week as Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen missed practice on Wednesday. Of the two, Odunze seems less likely to play, although the loss would certainly be greater if the Bears were without Allen, as they will likely be facing a heavy box with teams seeing Caleb Williams struggle in Week 1. The Bears are also still trying to figure out who their right guard is, as they rotated between Nate Davis and Ryan Bates which neither of the two played well. At running back, it's clear that D'Andre Swift will continue to get the work as Khalil Herbert did not have much of a role, seeing just six snaps, while Travis Homer was second amongst the running backs with 11 behind Swift, who was on the field for 39 of the 56 snaps.
Houston's run defense stood up to their first major test this past week, holding Jonathan Taylor to just 48 yards on 16 carries in Week 1. This was a big outing for the Texans' defense, showing that their 2023 numbers of holding opposing to a league-best 3.3 yards-per-carry was not a fluke. This is a defense led by head coach DeMeco Ryans is a cohesive unit that plays well together. It is not a defense with multiple Pro Bowlers or guys who could finish First-Team All-Pro stopping the run. Their starting middle linebacker, Christian Harris, remains on IR, and Heny To'to'o, who was the team's 5th-round pick in the 2023 draft, stepped up with 7 tackles last week. The Texans also only have one starter on the defensive line who weighs over 300 pounds, which is defensive tackle Folorunso Fatusuki, yet somehow, they continue to produce. There is risk here, as we would expect to see some regression at some point, given that this team is largely built to rush the passer with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Still, over the last two seasons, the results speak for themselves. This week, playing against a Bears rushing offense that could not get anything going last week, Houston should be able to handle this one.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Rachaad White and the Tampa Bay rushing attack did very little against Washington in Week 1, as the passing game carried the team en route to a 37-20 victory. For White, while he had 15 carries, he was only able to amass 31 yards. The offensive line will be a work in progress for Tampa Bay as center Graham Barton struggled to replace Ryan Jensen in his first game after being taken in Round 1 of the 2024 draft. Despite White's struggles, he added significant contributions in the passing game and was on the field for 70% of the snaps in a blowout victory. We saw last season where he had these types of games where he struggled, but the volume remains consistent as he had 15 or more carries in 9 of his last 11 regular season games.
The addition of D.J. Reader to an already good defensive line truly makes this one of the game's elites. Reader missed Week 1 with a quad injury but appears ready to go in Week 2. This defensive line is a problem for opposing defenses if Reader can return to a version of his former self. Alongside Reader sits Aiden Hutchinson and Alim McNeil making this one of the best defensive lines in the NFL which makes life significantly easier for linebackers Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, both are very good at run-stopping. Last week, we saw Kyren Williams struggle, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and finding very little space against the Lions' defense. Expect a similar result for Rachaad White this week, especially given rookie Graham Barton will have to deal with one of the best run-stopping defensive tackles we've seen over the last several years in Reader.
Detroit vs Tampa Bay
Detroit's rushing attack started strong in Week 1. This team is fully committed to running the ball as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 28 carries for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The roles seemingly will be similar to last season, which will likely be frustrating for fantasy managers, as Gibbs had 51% of the snaps but just 11 carries while adding 4 receptions. Meanwhile, Montgomery had 49% of the snaps with 17 carries and 1 reception. This is going to be an offense where the total touches are going to be nearly equal in most close games, with Montgomery getting slightly more touches in games where they get out to a big lead and Gibbs, due to his receiving ability, getting more work in games where they fall behind. This offensive line is as good as just about any team in the NFL. Footballguys' Matt Bitonti has Detroit ranked as the top offensive line in the NFL this season as it is a veteran unit across the board led by center Frank Ragnow. This is also the oldest offensive line in the NFL with the average age being 30, with only Penei Sewell under 28.
It's difficult to judge Tampa Bay's run defense based on this past week. On paper, it would seem they had a difficult time stopping Jayden Daniels and Washington's rushing attack as they allowed 138 yards on the ground. However, this doesn't tell the full story. Tampa Bay eliminated the ground threat of both Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler by limiting them to just 50 yards on 14 carries. Where they struggled was stopping Daniels as he had 88 yards on 16 carries leading the team. Tampa Bay held a two-score lead for almost the entirety of the game from the second quarter onwards, and with that, caused them to take away the big play while allowing Jayden Daniels to pick up small gains with his legs. This won't be an issue this week, as Jared Goff is as immobile of a quarterback that we have in the NFL. This ultimately means that Vita Vea, Lavonte David and the rest of this front seven can focus on stopping the opposing running backs which is something they've done very well over the last several seasons.
NY Jets at Tennessee
When you have Breece Hall, you know what you're going to get, which is high upside and low floor when it comes to rushing production. Last season, Hall had 7 games with 30 or less rushing yards and scored rushing touchdowns in just 4 of his 17 games. What you get from Hall is a high upside due to his big play potential, while also getting significant volume through the passing game. In Week 1, Hall managed to find the end zone which largely saved his day, as he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on 16 carries for a total of 54 yards. A big question for the Jets will be their offensive line. This is projected to be a strength for the team, but they struggled against a very good 49ers defense which can make just about any offensive line look bad in a given week.
Tennessee is an interesting team, as they completely shut down the Bears last week holding D'Andre Swift to just 30 yards on 10 carries, while neither Travis Homer or Khalil Herbert had much success on the ground either. This was a defense that utilized the strength of their defensive line led by Jeffrey Simmons to plug up most gaps, and not allow defenders to get to the second level which greatly helped the linebackers who are the weak part of this defense clean up the play. The Titans received some good news on Wednesday that Jamal Adams will return this week after missing his first game with Tennessee due to a hip issue. Adams is no longer the All-Pro caliber player he was several seasons ago, but he is still a very solid run-stopping safety that along with Amani Hooker and Qandree Diggs will make for one of the best three-headed safety units in the NFL with Adams also being able to slide down and help with the linebacker position as Kenneth Murray and Jack Gibbens have struggled for most of their career stopping the run.
All of the Rushing Matchups
