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Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Minnesota at NY Giants
Minnesota is revitalizing their rushing attack this offseason by bringing in Aaron Jones to replace last year's run game of Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler. Jones is a player who has always had to deal with crowded backfields in Green Bay as he split time with AJ Dillon. But he has a career 5.0 yards-per-carry, and every season that he has touched the ball more than 200 times, he has run for 1,000 or more yards. This season, Jones should not have to worry about a crowded backfield, as the Vikings only have two running backs on the roster, Ty Chandler being the other. Chandler is a player that the Vikings like, as he had success as a complimentary back last year, rushing for 461 yards on 102 carries. With the loss of Kirk Cousins this offseason, this team is expected to run the ball more than they did in 2024, and Jones could be in for a big season this year.
The Giants return much of the same defense that allowed the third most rushing yards per game with 111 to opposing running backs last season. While they only allowed two running backs to top 100 yards last year, they allowed success to nearly every team they faced, as 15 running backs topped 60 yards in their 17 games last season. The Giants brought back the entire front seven from last season, adding only Brian Burns, a top-tier pass rusher but simply an average run-stopper. Linebacker is the big issue for the Giants as it has been for quite some time. While veteran Bobby Okereke has been one of the bright spots on this defense, averaging 150 tackles in each of the last two seasons. The big problem continues to be Micah McFadden, who is entering his third season. McFadden continues to miss too many tackles to be a reliable average run-stopper, as he led the league in missed tackles at 17% last season, with the next closest linebacker being at 15%. The Giants have a massive hole to fill with the departure of Xavier McKinney, among the league's best run-stopping safeties. McKinney signed a massive deal with the Packers this offseason, leaving the Giants to rely on Dane Belton, among the league's worst safeties. With the Giants expected to be trailing in many games this season, expect them to face a significant number of rushing attempts, which will only put pressure on McFadden and Belton up the middle.
Buffalo vs Arizona
There are high hopes in Buffalo's rushing attack heading into the 2024 season. James Cook enters his third season after having a breakout season last year. Last season, Cook had 1,122 yards rushing on just 237 carries as the team also gave 144 carries to a combination of Latavius Murray, Ty Johnson, Damien Harris, and Leonard Fournette. This season, the Bills drafted Ray Davis in the fourth round, who they like a lot and should likely receive a consolidated workload that the Bills did not really have last season, a consistent number two running back. Josh Allen will continue to use his legs this season, which were a big part of the offense as he ran 111 times for 524 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. The Bills are replacing center Ryan Bates, who left in the offseason, by moving Connor McGovern from guard to center while promoting David Edwards from a backup to a starter at left guard.
Arizona led the league in rushing yards to opposing running backs with 119 per game last season. While the Cardinals brought in some new people, they minimally addressed the run game, bringing in Mack Wilson at linebacker who was a backup in New England last year. Alongside Wilson is Kyzir White, who, in his six-year career, has struggled to consistently make run stuffs, often making tackles five or six yards downfield. The one bright spot is the investments made in the interior of the defensive line as they brought over Justin Jones who was a big reason that the Bears' run defense was one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. The Cardinals also signed Bilal Nichols, another big signee that should help the interior of this defensive line. Nichols came from Las Vegas and will provide them with another 310+ pound defensive tackle on the interior that will help out the sub-par linebacker play in Wilson and White. The edges for the Cardinals could be an issue, especially early on in the season, as defensive end BJ Ojulari, who was the team's second-round pick in 2023, has been placed on IR with a knee injury along with Darius Robinson, who was the team's first-round pick in 2024 has also been placed on IR with a calf injury. This is a unit that is likely to once again be one of the worst in the NFL unless they can just dominate the interior of the defensive line or create unique packages for their safeties Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker to make plays as their safety room is a strength for this team.
New Orleans vs Carolina
The Saints' rushing attack is looking to rebound, with Alvin Kamara coming off his worst rushing season and rushing for just 53.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. As much as Kamara struggled, Jamaal Williams was even worse, as he had just 2.9 yards per carry. A big issue for the Saints is the offensive line, which has a lot of potential but, heading into this season, has a lot of questions. Ryan Ramczyk was lost for the season with a knee injury. The Saints have invested heavily in the NFL Draft with 2024 first-round pick left tackle Taliese Fuaga, 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning, who will replace Ramczyk at right tackle, and 2020 first-round pick Cesar Ruiz. Bringing in Klint Kubiak as the offensive coordinator should bring some upside to this rushing attack, as the last time Kubiak was a coordinator, Dalvin Cook ran for 1,159 yards and 4.7 yards per carry.
Carolina's run defense was amongst the worst in the NFL in 2023, and while they've tried to rebuild this defense, they've made some curious moves that are unlikely to make much of a difference in 2024. Last season, the Panthers allowed 109 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, fourth in the NFL, and also gave up a staggering 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game to the position. One of their big signings to solve the run problem is Josey Jewell, a middle linebacker brought over from Denver, where he spent the last six seasons. The only problem with that is that Denver has one of the three defenses worse than Carolina last season where Jewell was not the primary tackler as that went to Alex Singleton. Jewell will replace Frankie Luvu, the Panthers' leading tackler in 2023 and signed a big contract with the Washington Commanders. Jewell is an above-average off-ball run defender, but it is a significant downgrade for a team that needs a consistent tackler, given the issues of last year. The Panthers also lost Brian Burns to the Giants, replacing him with a much larger but far less athletic A'Shawn Robinson. Essentially, the Panthers are going bigger on the defensive line with Derrick Brown, Shy Tuttle, and A'Shawn Robinson, but they need the linebackers to step in and make the plays if the larger defensive line is keeping blockers from getting to the second level. The team also brought in Jadeveon Clowney, who has never been a good run-stopper and is primarily just a pass rusher at this point in his career. The Panthers also replaced veteran safety Vonn Bell with Jordan Fuller, who is not a player who consistently can make plays at the line of scrimmage as he's more of a deep safety that provides a last line of defense. This team has significant turnover but, until proven otherwise, is unlikely to have a noticeable difference compared to 2023.
Seattle vs Denver
Seattle's expecting big things from their running backs this season in Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Walker will start the season as the primary running back as he's been the last two seasons, averaging 4.1 yards-per-carry last season, as he's a solid, dependable runner. Charbonnet last year was primarily a third-down running back, but did see three games with 14 or more carries during a stretch where Walker was injured and failed to give the Seahawks a reason to give him more carries as he averaged just 3.2 yards-per-carry from Weeks 11 thru 13. Part of the issue for the Seahawks has been the offensive line, which Matt Bitonti has as 24th heading into this season. This is a unit that could have some issues once again this year, as right tackle Abraham Lucas was placed on the PUP list and will be replaced by George Fant, who is a serviceable tackle, but the bigger issue is the interior of this defensive line. The team signed Laken Tomlinson to a one-year $1.2M contract this offseason, and they are expecting the 32-year-old guard to start along with Anthony Bradford, who was a 4th-round rookie last season and struggled. They'll need growth from Bradford to have a competent running game, or they could struggle with the offensive line issues all season.
The Broncos are a team that is once again built to stop the pass. Last season, the Broncos struggled against the run, allowing an astonishing 5.1 yards-per-carry, which led the NFL, while allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs with 118. The Broncos have gotten worse this offseason at linebacker, losing Josey Jewell to Carolina and trying to replace him with two largely unknowns in Baron Browning and Cody Barton. Barton was signed for a one-year $2.5 million contract but did have 67 solo tackles last season with Washington. The Broncos are largely bringing back their entire defensive line from last year, with the only change being a trade they made for John Franklin-Meyers, who they were able to acquire for a 2026 6th-round pick. The Broncos brought in Zach Allen last season from Arizona, hoping he would be able to solidify this defensive line, but Allen will need to take another step up to overcompensate for the lack of talent along this defensive line. The Broncos also have massive holes at safety after both Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons left this offseason. Simmons is the key loss as the four-time Second-Team All-Pro was one of the leaders in the run defense. The Broncos are replacing the two safeties with some big question marks as P.J. Locke, who has been with the team for four seasons primarily as a backup, and Brandon Jones, who was brought in from Miami but has never been a run-stopper throughout his career as he had just 36 solo tackles last season. This team has downgraded several positions on an already bad defense from last season and will sacrifice the run-stopping ability to be a good pass defense.
Denver at Seattle
Heading into the 2024 season, Denver is a team that has a significant number of questions on the offensive side of the ball. With Bo Nix at quarterback, they will likely lean heavily on their run game of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams struggled last year in his third season as he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and had just one carry longer than 20 yards all season, which went for just 21 yards. Meanwhile, McLaughlin was a game-changer, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and is an electric runner, with the only issue keeping him from overtaking Williams being size, as he's just 5-7 and 180 pounds. The Broncos also drafted Audric Estime, who had a knee injury in OTAs and did not look good enough in preseason to take an initial role immediately. The good news for the Broncos is that they return all five offensive linemen from last season, as this team has invested heavily in their tackles, with both Garrett Boles and Mike McGlinchey signed to significant contracts.
Seattle has a lot of question marks heading into this season as this was a team whose run defense simply collapsed in the second half of last season as they allowed five running backs to top 100 yards in their final 10 games and nine running backs to top 70 yards during that period. The team has a new identity as they've lost Bobby Wagner, Jamal Adams, Qandre Diggs, and Jordyn Brooks, who were their top four snap leaders at linebacker and safety, and Diggs, Adams, and Wagner all had at least three Pro Bowl seasons with Wagner leading the way with nine. The Seahawks did bring in Rayshawn Jenkins, a strong run-stopping safety, but he will need help as the other replacements are potential liabilities in the run game. Julian Love is a tackle machine, but of his 85 solo tackles, only 1 was a tackle for loss. Meanwhile, the linebacker play leaves a lot to be desired as the team will be starting veteran Jerome Baker, who the team acquired from Miami, and Tyrel Dodson, both on just one-year contracts. The Seahawks are amongst the league's best pass-defending units, which should only further increase the amount of pressure their run defense will be under each week.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
LA Rams at Detroit
Kyren Williams emerged as a premier running back in the 2023 season, running for 1,144 yards on 228 carries, but despite the success of 5.0 yards-per-carry last season, the leash could be thin for the running back if he does not start the season strong. Sean McVay has never held back on replacing running backs whether it was Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Todd Gurley, or Sony Michel, once McVay feels another running back can have more success he'll quickly make the change as was the case last year when Williams replaced Akers after just one game. The reports out of Los Angeles about Blake Corum are extremely high on the rookie investing as a third-round pick after two dominant seasons at Michigan, leading them to a national championship last season. Neither Williams nor Corum played in the preseason, so it's difficult to know how much of a role Corum will have in Week 1. A lot of this is likely just offseason talk and discounting just how great Kyren Williams was last season, as the Rams depended on him through both the running and passing game. It's hard to see the Rams throwing all that away in Week 1 for a rookie who has not played in the preseason. Over time, it could become more of a split, but this should be Williams' backfield to start the year.
The Lions' run defense last year was amongst the league's best, as they allowed just 60 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, leading the NFL. The Lions doubled down on improving their run defense by adding one of the league's best run-stopping defensive tackles, DJ Reader, along with Marcus Davenport, who for years was a critical component of the Saints' elite run-stopping unit before last year playing just four games for Minnesota. These two additions, alongside Aiden Hutchinson and Alim McNeil, should make up one of the league's best defensive lines and are significant upgrades over players such as Benito Jones and Isaiah Buggs. At linebacker, the Lions have high expectations from their 2023 first-round draft pick Jack Campbell, who had 5 tackles for loss last season, alongside Alex Anzalone, who has revitalized his career in Detroit. At safety, Brian Branch is the hybrid role that can slide down into the box and be a critical run-stopper as the rookie had 50 solo tackles last season, including 7 tackles for loss. This unit is also boosted by their struggles against the pass as they were one of the weakest in the NFL last season, which also contributed to their run defense only facing 17 rush attempts per game, which was the lowest in the NFL.
NY Jets at San Francisco
The big question for the Jets is just how good Breece Hall can be in 2024. The third-year running back finished the season as well as you can, running the ball 37 times for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 18 for his third 100-yard performance. Despite this, as a running back, Hall was incredibly frustrating at times last season with consistency both in volume and success. The Jets were quick to abandon the run in games they fell behind in, as Hall had seven games in which he failed to run the ball for more than 25 yards, with the team going 1-6 in those games. The only game they won was the game in which the Giants threw for 7 passing yards between Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. The Jets have invested heavily in their offensive line for 2024, bringing in left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson from Baltimore, and right tackle Morgan Moses. The Jets also drafted first-round pick Olu Fashanu, who will likely learn from the veterans Smith and Moses for 2024.
The 49ers defense has been the gold standard for the last several seasons, and last year was no different. This defense allowed just 65 rushing yards per game, the second-best in the NFL. 2024 will look slightly different for this team, as based on cap restrictions, Chase Young, Javon Kinlaw, Clelin Farrell, and Arik Armstead all left the team. The 49ers replaced these players with big names along the defensive line to pair with Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave as they traded for defensive tackle Maliek Collins while also signing Leonard Floyd. While Floyd is more of a pass rusher than a run-stopper, Collins is a strong, space-eating defensive tackle who should make life easy for the league's best run-stopping linebacker in Fred Warner. Warner is coming off of his second consecutive First Team All-Pro season (third overall) and will have to take a significant load early on in the year as Dre Greenlaw is on the PUP list to begin the year as he recovers from an Achilles injury. Greenlaw will be replaced by veteran De'Vondre Campbell, a more than capable linebacker with 507 solo tackles over his 8-year career. This is a team that will likely only improve throughout the season, given some of the turnovers that they've had along with a new Defensive Coordinator in Nick Sorensen, but this is an incredibly talented unit that should make it difficult for the Jets on Monday Night.
Tennessee at Chicago
The Titans will have a much different rushing attack in 2024 compared to 2023, as Derrick Henry has departed to Baltimore. Tennessee brought in veteran Tony Pollard from Dallas, who is coming off of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. However, he is expected to be pushed by second-year running back Tyjae Spears, who the team is very high on after taking him in the third round of the 2023 draft. Here's the thing: you often need to follow the money early on in the season. The Titans went out and signed Pollard to a 3-year $21 million contract this offseason and are almost certainly going to give him the first shot at this offense, with Spears playing a complementary role until Spears can show that unquestionably he should get the starting job. Tennessee has made big changes at running back and as head coach as they brought in Brian Callahan, the Bengals offensive coordinator from 2019 through 2023. What is most exciting about Brian Callahan is that he brought his father, Bill Callahan, to be the offensive line coach. Bill Callahan is almost unanimously regarded as the premier offensive line coach in the NFL, most recently spending the last four seasons with the Cleveland Browns. This is a rebuilding project for Bill Callahan, as offensive line expert Matt Bitonti has the Titans as the worst offensive line heading into 2024. It's a team with a lot of unknowns, as they drafted JC Latham in the first round of the 2024 draft. Peter Skoronski was a 2023 first-round pick who they've now moved to his more natural position at left guard next to Latham, but they're going to need better play on the right side of the line as Nicholas Petit-Frere had one of the worst seasons at right tackle in the NFL. This could be a dangerous unit with both Pollard and Spears if the offensive line can improve even to just league average.
The 2023 Chicago Bears run defense under Matt Eberflus was one of the most improved units in the NFL. This was a defense that allowed 122 rushing yards per game in 2022 and improved to just 69 rushing yards per game in 2023. No running back topped 80 yards except for Week 18 against Green Bay when Aaron Jones ran for 111 against this defense. The Bears invested heavily in their linebackers last season by signing tackle machine T.J. Edwards, who had 155 total tackles, including 91 solo tackles, and Tremaine Edmunds. The Bears improved even further this season by bringing in Kevin Byard, one of the most consistent safeties in the NFL in the first nine years of his career. If there is a concern for Chicago heading into this season, it is the defensive tackles, as they lost Justin Jones and are relying on Andrew Billings and Gervon Dexter, who are going to be asked to play much bigger roles this season. Billings is a journeyman who has played for six teams over his nine seasons, while Dexter is in his second year after being a second-round draft pick in the 2023 draft. If the defensive tackles can just be league average, the rest of this defense could be one of the best in the league.
Indianapolis vs Houston
This is a big season for the future of the Indianapolis Colts. Having one of the most dynamic rushing attacks with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor could be a dynamic duo if they stay healthy. Taylor had his breakout performance in 2021 as the running back had 1,811 yards rushing, and since then has not been the same player. Over his first two seasons, Taylor averaged 5.3 yards-per-carry, while in his last two seasons, he's missed a total of 13 games and is averaging just 4.4 yards-per-carry. Meanwhile, Richardson is one of the most electric rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, but he only played four games last season before suffering a shoulder injury that cost him the 2023 season. This team's success likely depends on their ability to keep these two on the field, but while they are out there, this should be one of the league's most exciting units each week.
One of the most underrated units in the NFL last season had to be the Houston Texans' run defense. Last year, this unit held opposing running backs to just 3.3 yards per carry, which was the best in the NFL. This year, they should be even better than last year based on their acquisitions of Azeez Al-Shaair, who was critical in the Titans' very good run defense in 2023, while also bringing in defensive end Danielle Hunter along with Denico Autry, who is suspended for the first six games this season. A big improvement for the Texans has to be at safety, as Jalen Pitre showed growth in his second season along with safety Jimmy Ward, who they brought in last season. DeMeco Ryans has this team well-coached and a unit that played cohesively last season, unlike prior coaching staffs who were seemingly just hoping J.J. Watt would make a play. This is a team that does not have many big names outside of Will Anderson but is a team that is going to make you earn every yard on the ground.
Cincinnati vs New England
Cincinnati is going through some offseason transformation, as they've moved on from Joe Mixon and signed Zack Moss to pair with second-year running back Chase Brown. The Bengals have also changed offensive coordinators as they promoted Dan Pitcher after Brian Callahan left to be Tennessee's head coach. Pitcher has been the quarterbacks coach for each of the last four seasons, and this seems to be the trend for the Bengals to throw the ball quite a bit with what is likely the final year of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins altogether in Cincinnati as Higgins is playing on a franchise tag. In the rushing game, the big question is whether Moss or Brown can emerge as a primary running back. Throughout his career, Moss has always been a guy who was good enough to take a full workload for a week or two , filling in for a starter, but he is best used as a complimentary piece, whereas Brown is a wildcard. In college, he ran the ball 27 times per game in his final season at Illinois.
Despite being one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, New England's run defense was a bright spot. Last season, New England allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the second-best in the NFL. The Patriots had two outlier performances that skew these numbers even further as Breece Hall had a 178-yard performance in Week 18, while Raheem Mostert had 121 yards in Week 2. Outside of these two performances last season, no running back topped 80 yards against them. While last year's performance is not necessarily predictive of this year's future performance, New England brings back a lot of the same personnel who contributed to these results. Safeties Kyler Dugger and Jabrill Peppers make up the best-tackling safeties in the NFL, while the Patriots are also strong at linebacker behind Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tahvai. The big question for New England is first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. It's a significant step for Mayo who is going from the inside linebackers coach for the last five seasons to the head coach, while the Patriots are elevating DeMarcus Covington from defensive line coach to defensive coordinator. This coaching staff has significant continuity, but questions remain based on the history of how Bill Belichick's coaching tree has performed when given a chance to be an NFL coach.
All of the Rushing Matchups
