Reading the Defense is a weekly column that contemplates the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players’ fantasy value. As analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

Asset Management

Readers who play in contract-style leagues will readily recognize this greatest market inefficiency of fantasy football. A bottom-dwelling roster includes a productive veteran pass rusher on an expiring, expensive contract. The bottom-dweller posts the player on his trade bait and peddles him among contenders. He finds one interested contender, who offers a low rookie draft pick. The bottom-dweller rejects the offer because it fell short of his expectations. The veteran pass rusher’s fantasy contract expires at the end of the season and falls off the bottom-dweller’s roster. The bottom-dweller ultimately loses the veteran without recouping any value.

NFL franchises recognize this reality. Numerous players with expensive contracts and expiring deals have moved ahead of the league’s trade deadline last Tuesday. Fantasy trade deadlines begin in many leagues this week. Dynasty and contract-league gamers are wise to follow real life’s lead.

The closest comp to the hypothetical above is Brandon Graham. The Eagles’ veteran defensive end has announced his retirement effective at the end of the season. Graham is likely only of use to gamers in 32-team leagues. The uncompetitive manager rostering Graham should deal him to contending managers of Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett while they sit for the Week-10 bye. The return the Graham manager receives will be set by the Crosby or Garrett manager. The Graham manager should be thankful for any return at all.

Several players who factor into leagues of typical sizes face uncertain futures. Dynasty and contract-league fantasy gamers looking to 2025 are wise to move off of these veterans before their utility to contenders—i.e., their fantasy values—declines precipitously.

Lavonte David, Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers’ long-time captain and linebacker advised that he considered retiring after last season. The team’s outperformance of expectations encouraged him to return. Tampa Bay won the NFC South and beat the Eagles, who manhandled them in the regular season, to advance in the playoffs.

The 2024 Buccaneers dropped to 4-5 after foolishly foregoing a two-point conversion attempt with 33 seconds to play in Kansas City. The overtime loss puts them 2.5 games behind the division-leading Falcons, who swept Tampa Bay this season.

Eric Kendricks, Dallas

Long-time Vikings captain Eric Kendricks reunited with his former coach Mike Zimmer in Dallas this season. Kendricks had intended to play in San Francisco as a temporary replacement for Dre Greenlaw, but Zimmer’s appointment as the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator presented a better opportunity.

Zimmer’s second stint in this role has been a disaster. Kendricks will be 33 next year and could struggle to find another full-time role.

The Linebacker Cliff

IDP fantasy gamers are rarely prepared for the sudden loss of production for a volume tackler who’s not actually good at football. Devin White, Blake Martinez, and Jaylon Smith were once high picks (in fantasy and real life) and productive fantasy assets that went poof. Miami’s David Long Jr is just the latest example.

? Mike McDaniel on David Long Jr. losing his starting spot: "I have the utmost respect for David Long Jr as a man, as a player. It was less about David Long Jr not doing something, more about [Walker Jr.] deserved the opportunity." #GoFins pic.twitter.com/MzEXOJ90wA

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) November 7, 2024

Players that belong on a watch list for decreased roles without warning include E.J. Speed, whom this column has covered before, and De'Vondre Campbell. The 49ers turned to Campbell after Kendricks reversed course. Last week’s edition addressed worrisome fantasy assets Quay Walker and Demario Davis.

Khalil Mack, LA Chargers

Khalil Mack enjoyed a resurgent 2023, finishing second among edge defenders in Footballguys scoring. Mack ranks 15th through 9 weeks. He’s in the last season of his contract with the Chargers and will be 34 in 2025. His playing time is off 10 percentage points year over year despite Joey Bosa’s lack of availability. 

Mack might be back in 2025. He might have another good year. He could also get seriously hurt in the second half of this season.

Mack is the best short-term option for a fantasy gamer who still needs to replace Aidan Hutchinson’s production. The gamer seeking to trade Mack would do well to extract whatever the Hutchinson manager is willing to pay. This example best fits the opening hypothetical.

Calais Campbell, Miami

At 38 years of age, Calais Campbell continues to produce. His longevity is a counterpoint to the premise of this article. If he suffers a serious injury, however, the start of his 2025 season would be in jeopardy. He could choose to retire instead of return.

Other players on season-ending injured/reserve with expiring contracts include 32-year-old DeMarcus Lawrence, 26-year-old Malcolm Koonce, 30-year-old Shaq Thompson, and 30-year-old Troy Reeder.

No Safety in the Secondary

Fantasy gamers should contemplate whether dynasty rankings should simply mirror redraft rankings. Changes of scenery enhance the risk that defensive backs can get hurt or phased out.

Paulson Adebo has ranked among the top-scoring fantasy cornerbacks for the past two years. Now, he’s lost for the season to injury in his contract year. The Saints’ man-heavy scheme has fueled Adebo’s tackle numbers. Head coach Dennis Allen, the architect of that scheme has been fired. Adebo could land in an indistinct defensive scheme in 2025 and never sniff fantasy relevance again.

Marcus Williams, the Ravens’ prize unrestricted free-agent signing in 2022, finished fourth among safeties in fantasy points per game by Footballguys scoring that season. He was benched two weeks ago for poor play. Like linebackers, safeties’ outlooks change rapidly.

Former Bronco Justin Simmons ranked seventh on Footballguys’ 2022 leaderboard for fantasy points per game by safeties. He was a cap casualty at the end of the 2023 season. He didn’t sign a contract for 2024 until August 15. The 30-year-old joined Atlanta’s defense for $7.5 million and frequents the back end of Raheem Morris’s shell coverages. He’s nearly invisible for fantasy purposes.

Budda Baker is the highest-paid safety on an expiring contract at $14.75 million. The 28-year-old Cardinal is too likely to follow in Simmons’s footsteps to be considered a premium dynasty asset. Baker is a good player, but so is Simmons. Good safety play does not always translate in box scores.

More productive defensive backs facing free agency next March include 32-year-old Tyrann Mathieu of New Orleans and several younger players who might find new homes: Justin Reid, Jeremy Chinn, Camryn Bynum, Tre'von Moehrig, Talanoa Hufanga, and Byron Murphy II.

Safety Tashaun Gipson Sr rejoined the San Francisco 49ers on Tuesday by signing with their practice squad. This comes after head coach Kyle Shanahan recently said that it wasn’t clear if safety Talanoa Hufanga could return from his wrist injury this season. https://t.co/qoHYdU59IV

— San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) November 7, 2024

Lessons to Learn

Fantasy gamers are wise to differentiate their players as durable and non-durable assets. Quality play matters even in the back seven, where volume generates more fantasy value than talent. An expiring contract can be a short fuse for a fantasy asset’s value. Readers playing the long game should move such assets rather than absorb the risk.

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.