Reading the Defense: Week 4

Photo: USA Today Sports

In 2013, Footballguy Adam Harstad wondered how many weeks into the season would pass before to-date scoring became more predictive of year-end finish than preseason ADP. His analysis of the 2012 season and several subsequent seasons concluded that the answer is roughly four games.

Harstad conducted his analysis only for skill-position players. Average draft position for individual defensive players varies greatly from source to source relative to offensive players, so parallel analysis would be futile.

Week 4 might, therefore, be the last best chance to acquire a good player whose counting stats don't reflect his performance. Through three weeks, seven players have more than 3.0 quarterback sacks to their credit. Only two of them appeared among the top 100 players by average draft position in The IDP Show's IDP-only best-ball drafts that occurred throughout the offseason.

First-rounders Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa each have 2.0 quarterback sacks. A 26-year-old undrafted free agent from Indiana University of Pennsylvania matched this total in his NFL debut in Week 3. Dondrea Tillman does not even appear on the Broncos' unofficial depth chart at DenverBroncos.com.

Footballguy Matt Montgomery has concluded that Bosa should be demoted from the elite tier of IDPs for fantasy purposes. Bosa has collected 9 combined tackles through three weeks, right on pace for his career average of 3 per game. His tackle totals have always been more like ED3 numbers. His fantasy value is reliant on big plays. Based on his performance to date, should you, the fantasy football gamer, buy or sell Nick Bosa in your league's trade market?

Pass Rush Win Rate

It's time for the first win rate chart of the year!

Double team rate when pass rushing as an edge (x) by pass rush win rate at edge (y).

(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/1wdbcOgkKi

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 26, 2024

A confluence of events results in a quarterback sack. The quarterback must drop back to pass and hold the ball long enough for a defender to reach and tackle him. Good coverage helps. Good offensive-line play neutralizes pass rush. Some say, “A sack is a quarterback sack.” The aspect of the sack that the pass rusher can control is how quickly he beats the blocker who aims to impede his progress to the quarterback.

ESPN collects “pass-rush wins” from NFL Next Gen Stats. A pass rusher who beats the block within 2.5 seconds is credited with a win. ESPN then charts the rate of wins versus pass-rush attempts along with the rate at which the defender is double-teamed by blockers. If the opposite of a pass-rush win is a loss, the double-team mitigates the negative impact on the defense of the loss. Other defenders have fewer obstacles in their path to the quarterback.

Through three weeks, perennially underrated Trey Hendrickson has nearly broken ESPN's chart. Hendrickson has been double-teamed more frequently than any edge defender (qualifying with regular playing time) and has also achieved the highest win rate. He's tied with elite IDPs Myles Garrett and Aidan Hutchinson atop ESPN's leaderboard by winning one of every three pass-rush attempts.

Footballguys' Strength of Schedule tool identifies the remaining schedule of Hendrickson's Bengals as the league's most favorable for fantasy point production by edge defenders. Notably, the tool incorporates past production in run and pass defense. Hendrickson has never been a compiler of tackles, so gamers in tackle-heavy leagues must weather his lower floor. Hendrickson nevertheless has two quarterbacks as division rivals, Deshaun Watson and Justin Fields, who fuel the argument that a sack is a quarterback sack. Hendrickson is an ED1 in big-play scoring formats.

Trey Hendrickson is an absolute terror

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— All-22 (@All22_PFF) September 15, 2024