Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a brand name in IDP fantasy football since he arrived in Pittsburgh in a 2019 trade from the Dolphins. The former eleventh-overall pick forced two turnovers in his first game and looked energized by murmurs of the “bust” label.

In 2021, Fitzpatrick finished as the fantasy football’s second overall defensive back on the strength of 124 total tackles. Fantasy gamers interpreted Fitzpatrick’s statistical growth as an ascension after two DB2 seasons.

Gamers and sports writers alike cite tackle compilation as a sign of success, even talent. Fitzpatrick did not achieve triple digits in tackling before or since. Was 2021 his one great season? The reverse is more likely. Fitzpatrick was named All-Pro in 2019, 2020, and 2022. He didn’t even make the Pro Bowl in 2021.

Run-Play Tackling

Diagnosis of factors that buttress fantasy success informs prognoses for future production. Unforeseeable trends can be identified as they emerge, illuminating acquisition opportunities.

The not-so-secret ingredient of Minkah Fitzpatrick’s 2021 tackle total was run defense. Pro Football Focus credited him with 48 solo tackles and 13 assists in run-play tackling. A free safety in a single-high defense, Fitzpatrick tackled runners at an average depth of 11.3 yards downfield.

The tackle total was the second highest among all defensive backs that season, while the average depth of tackle was conversely the fourth highest. In contrast, former Panther Jeremy Chinn led all defensive backs with 56 solo tackles and added 9 assists. Chinn’s average depth of tackle in run-play tackling was 6.0.

Antoine Winfield Jr, another free safety, was making run-play tackles 11.9 yards downfield, on average. Pro Football Focus credited Winfield with 23 solo tackles and 14 assists, a little more than half of Fitzpatick’s total and closer to what one might expect from a player routinely lined up more than 12 yards downfield at the snap.

Team Context for Tackling

The 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers were the worst run defense in the NFL by average yards per rush,  total rush defense (yards allowed), and rushing first downs allowed (tied). Starting interior defender Stephon Tuitt surprisingly retired before the season started. Linebacker Devin Bush, the tenth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, posted the worst PFF grade of his career en route to bust status. Bush’s running mate, Joe Schobert, also received the worst PFF grade of his mediocre career in 2021.

IDP gamers believed Schobert to be a good player, evidenced by the tackle collection in Cleveland. He was widely drafted as a fantasy LB1 in the summer of 2021. Schobert started just one more game after that season and has been out of the league since 2022.

Indianapolis Knackers Defense

The Colts’ Nick Cross leads all players in run-play tackling in this young season, as tracked by Pro Football Focus. Joe Mixon and the Texans gashed Indy in Week 1. Cross officially made 14 tackles, 8 of them solo, in both phases. Cross played free safety and made tackles on running plays at an average depth of nearly 9 yards from the line of scrimmage.

In Week 2, Cross shifted over to strong safety in place of injured Julian Blackmon. Last year’s starting free safety, Rodney Thomas II, assumed Cross’s deep role. Cross played at linebacker depth for much of the game and officially made 15 tackles, 10 of which were solo. Indy’s defensive game plan versus Malik Willis and the Packers was to stack the box.

Through two games, Nick Cross’s 29 total tackles exceed all other players' totals by 5.  The Colts defense has allowed 474 yards rushing on 93 attempts – 75 more yards and 12 more attempts than any other team.

Cross leads the league with 17 solos in run-play tackling per PFF. His teammate, linebacker E.J. Speed ranks third (tied) with 12 despite an embarrassing missed tackle rate of 23.5%.

Imagine that Nick Cross would be the only good defender the 2024 Indianapolis Colts would have through five quarters. #Colts#ForTheShoe#Packers#GoPackGo#INDvsGB pic.twitter.com/0o7qVNQkJx

— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) September 15, 2024

Fantasy Implications

Nick Cross should resume playing free safety when Julian Blackmon returns, which could be as early as Week 4. Star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner will remain sidelined with a high-angle sprain that has him on IR. While Cross’s return to free safety should suppress his tackle rate per snap, the team weakness in front of him should keep him fantasy-relevant. Both he and the starting strong safety Blackmon could finish as startable fantasy safeties like Texans Jalen Pitre and Jonathan Owens did in 2022.

Cross has been one of IDP fantasy football’s hottest pick-ups this month. Blackmon, however, could be on waiver wires as he’s hurt but not eligible for IR in most fantasy leagues.

The lesson from the 2022 Texans and the 2021 Steelers is to worry about the linebackers. Joe Schobert lost snaps to Robert Spillane in dime subpackages. At the time, Spillane was a little-known fourth-year player who had not been drafted.

Houston’s Christian Harris came out of Alabama as a hyped rookie in 2022. He struggled mightily and couldn’t hold his role. Turnover in the middle of the Texans’ defense (exacerbated by Denzel Perryman’s injuries) frustrated fantasy gamers all season.

As the weakside linebacker in Gus Bradley’s defense, E.J. Speed is hurt most by the loss of under-tackle DeForest Buckner. Speed is slight. He needs interior defenders to occupy blockers and keep him clean. Speed’s official 22 combined tackles should make him an attractive candidate in trade to other fantasy gamers.

More Run Fits

Los Angeles Goats

The L.A. Rams’ top four pass rushers are rookies and sophomores. All of their inside linebackers are UDFAs. They’re fielding retread cornerbacks. Perhaps it’s no surprise that their defense is off to a rough start. Now that Matthew Stafford is without his top three targets for several weeks, the pressure on the defense only increases.

Quentin Lake trails only Nick Cross among defensive backs in run-play tackling. (This column covered Lake last week.) Rookie Jared Verse leads all NFL edge defenders in run-play tackling.

Linebacker Christian Rozeboom lost snaps down the stretch last year to Troy Reeder. Rozeboom’s return to his coaches’ good graces will be short-lived. His 22.2% missed tackle rate in run defense complements his PFF grade below 40.

The Rams have allowed the most rushing first downs, and they rank 30th in rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed.  Their pass defense is arguably worse. They lead the league in missed tackles with 33, 10 more than any other team.

The Rams must have had a plan when they traded away defensive captain Ernest Jones IV. Troy Reeder epitomizes the two-down thumper. If the Rams’ 2024 season continues to spiral downward, rookie preseason sensation Omar Speights will see the field sooner than later.

Rams fell in love with former @BeaverFootball LB Omar Speights. He went from UDFA to starting quickly pic.twitter.com/IYJJyFfFjn

— HoldenCantor (@HoldenCantor) August 27, 2024

Philadelphia Iggles

Eagles fans are hard enough on their own team. The franchise doesn’t need a derogatory nickname to characterize their run defense. They are allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards per carry through two weeks.

The high average helps explain how free safety Reed Blankenship amassed 8 solos and 2 assists in run-play tackling 12.5 yards downfield, on average. Those simply reading box scores are undoubtedly pleased with Blankenship’s official totals of 18 combined tackles and an interception. They might interpret that he’s simply picking up where he left off last year.

That’s more true than casual fantasy gamers know. Blankenship was the 2023 version of Minkah Fitzpatrick. At 9.4 yards from scrimmage, Blankenship posted the highest average depth of tackle of any of the top 20 tackling defensive backs in run defense. The Eagles’ defense deteriorated as the 2023 season progressed, partly due to linebacker Nakobe Dean’s season-ending injury.

The jury remains out on the 2024 Eagles’ defense, but the offense is easily better than that of the Rams or Colts. Their defensive line has talent, and they brought back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who was a spark plug in 2022.

The strong safety Gardner-Johnson plays alongside Blankenship. Although the two are roughly interchangeable in Vic Fangio’s two-high shells, Gardner-Johnson is the player triggering downhill in key situations. The strong safety’s average depth of tackle in his 4 solos and 2 assists in run-play tackling is 0.8 yards from scrimmage.

WHAT A HIT BY CJ GARDNER-JOHNSON ?

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/ljv3K7sCbw

— Whistle (@WhistleSports) September 17, 2024

Reed Blankenship is a sell-high candidate as complacent managers settle into the notion that he’s a perennial DB1. The Eagles won’t face Josh Jacobs and Bijan Robinson every week. The running backs in the NFC East are unlikely to gash the Eagles for chunk plays.

Playing Time

The Colts defense has been on the field for a league-leading 143 plays in 2024. Plays beget tackle opportunities.

The Miami Dolphins have played the fewest snaps on defense: 95. The reduced opportunities have not hurt David Long Jr. He’s the inside linebacker coming downhill and making plays in run defense. He has made 19 tackles, including 2 for loss in 2 games.

Long’s running mate, prized free agent Jordyn Brooks, has just 10 tackles to his credit. The evidence strongly suggests Long will lead the team in tackles this season, but Brooks is a buy-low candidate. There’s no reason to expect the Dolphins’ defense to play 8% fewer snaps than the rest of the league.

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.