Reading the New Defense: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee has a new defense for 2024. Our Tripp Brebner looks at the new opportunities in Dennard Wilson's scheme.

Tripp Brebner III's Reading the New Defense: Tennessee Titans Tripp Brebner III Published 06/20/2024

Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
Atl | Chi | Dal | GB | Jac | LAC | Mia | NYG | Phi | Sea | Ten | Was

Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

This is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.

Macri also reports tackle rates per snap for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they align in “the box” – where linebackers typically line up.

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.

Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.

Anthony Weaver, the Ravens' defensive line coach under Mike Macdonald, will succeed Fangio as the Dolphins’ defensive coordinator. A former defensive end, Weaver will lean on his pass rushers, including the team’s current first-round pick, Chop Robinson, to make plays in Miami while his secondary plays more conservatively. The second installation of the series covers Miami.

Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.

Dennard Wilson, another of Macdonald’s position coaches, will coordinate the Titans’ defense in 2024. The Titans sought out cornerbacks with plus size and the demonstrated ability to play press-man coverage in free agency. Wilson, the former defensive back, will emphasize interior pressure and seek to deny outside receivers the football.

Wilson coached just one season in Baltimore, arriving from Philadelphia where he was not only the defensive backs coach but also the passing game coordinator. He has contributed to the NFL’s top defense in consecutive seasons in two different cities. Both units used multiple fronts, frequently deployed two-high-safety structures, and blitzed at league-average rates of around 20 percent.

Wilson coached under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams in two stops totaling five of his twelve years as an NFL coach. Williams might be best known for calling Cover-0 with under a minute on the clock and giving up a long, game-winning touchdown pass to the Raiders’ Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs III in 2020.

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.

An ELITE subscription is required to access content for IDP (individual defensive players) leagues. If this league is not a IDP (individual defensive players) league, you can edit your leagues here.

Join Now

 Erecting Defensive Fronts

While basic media coverage of NFL defenses focuses on the number of high safeties (1 – MOFC or 2 – MOFO), coaches wrestle with whether to penetrate and disrupt or hold the line of scrimmage. One coach will choose to defense the run on the way to the quarterback (e.g., Dan Quinn) while another will build a wall (e.g., Dean Pees).

Titans Defensive Tackles

 

Dennard Wilson discussed his approach with the media during OTAs. He starts with “building a wall.” The Titans signed Sebastian Joseph as an unrestricted free agent and drafted T'Vondre Sweat in the second round of the 2024 draft as building blocks.

Wilson has an All-Pro-caliber interior disruptor in Jeffery Simmons around whom to build his pass rush. The new coordinator has worked with Aaron Donald, Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams, Fletcher Cox, and most recently, Justin Madubuike while a defensive backs coach. Simmons will contribute to run defense to sufficiently support his tackle totals while also earning opportunities in 4-3-under fronts to penetrate the ‘B’ gap.  

Titans Edge Rushers

A well-known fantasy commodity, Harold Landry III has amassed 326 tackles and 41.5 quarterback sacks in five active seasons. Despite his 5-year $87.5 million contract, Landry is not a household name. He is a good, not great player who has compiled stats during 4,413 defensive snaps.

Arden Key will bookend the defense with Landry. In 2015, Key was considered a top-25 recruit nationally across all positions. His ascendency was interrupted by injuries at LSU. He seemed to struggle emotionally as well as physically, taking time away from the team. The Raiders risked a third-round pick on Key in the 2018 NFL Draft, after which, he nearly washed out of the league.

A resurgent 2022 as a situational pass rusher earned Key a long-term deal in Tennessee. Key is now positioned to succeed departed free agent Denico Autry as a starter and three-down player. Fourth-year man Rashad Weaver inherits Key’s role as the first edge rusher off the bench.

Building Out Coverages

The 2022 Eagles defense and the 2023 Ravens defense each used middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) structure in balance with MOFC (closed) structure. This balance amounted to some of the highest utilization of two high safeties in coverage in the league according to Sports Info Solutions.

Dennard Wilson’s last two defensive backfields used man coverage more often than the league average for each season. As a percentage of defensive snaps, “more than average” amounts to a quarter to a third of the time. As recently as six years ago, several teams played man coverage nearly half the time. Last season, only one team used man coverage even 40 percent of the time.

Wilson’s 2022 Eagles and 2023 Ravens played press-man coverage at above-average rates. While the presence of Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry IV explained its use in Philadelphia in 2022, the 2023 Ravens seemingly gambled regularly once Marlon Humphrey was lost to injury. Wilson might have gained his appetite for aggressive cornerback play from Gregg Williams.

Titans Cornerbacks

The Titans allowed two 2023 starters to walk in free agency and sought out longer, more physical cornerbacks. Former Bengal Chidobe Awuzie agreed to terms as an unrestricted free agent. L'Jarius Sneed also agreed to a long-term deal after the team dealt draft capital to Kansas City. Each player has inside/outside flexibility, but both are expected to leave most of the slot snaps to the incumbent, Roger McCreary. Dennard Wilson confirms they will press often.

Titans Safeties

Elijah Molden has alternated between nickelback and safety in his three years in Tennessee. He will line up at safety in Year 4 alongside veteran Amani Hooker. Molden’s role is safe going into the season; established or even drafted players stand behind him on the depth chart.

Molden and Hooker will constitute the shell behind the cornerbacks to empower them in press coverage. At OTAs, Hooker identified himself as “the quarterback of the defense” and wants the responsibility to relay defensive signals.

Titans Linebackers

Fantasy gamers wrote Kenneth Murray off as a bust after three years in the league. The former first-rounder collected 214 tackles in 2.042 snaps from 2020 to 2022. The rate of tackles per snap would have been admirable for a safety but was woeful for a linebacker. He surprisingly emerged during the 2023 season as a full-time player and relayed defensive signals for the Chargers. He compiled 107 tackles in 15 games and recorded a career-best 3.6-percent missed-tackle rate per Pro Football Reference.

Murray left Los Angeles with the last regime and joined the Titans on a 2-year $15.5 million contract. The average annual value just inside the top ten at the position among contracts signed this offseason suggests a high-volume role. He will be paid just a few hundred thousand less than recently extended Lavonte David and Demario Davis, two veteran defensive captains.

Murray will play alongside former exclusive rights free agent Jack Gibbens. Gibbens played two-thirds of his unit’s snaps across 14 games, functioning as a proverbial two-down thumper who came off the field for a sixth defensive back in obvious passing situations. Coaches’ comments in OTAs that Murray will “play free” while Gibbens has command of the defense suggest the holdover’s role could grow in 2024.

The Titans’ fourth-round pick was considered to have slid in the draft. While Cedric Gray is also a candidate to relay defensive signals on Sundays, he must first win a starting job. Good progress in Gray’s development would be to earn the top reserve linebacker role as a rookie.

2024 Titans Outlook

Fantasy Fades

L'Jarius Sneed was the consensus first cornerback selected in fantasy drafts in 2023. Many failed to see that his role would change from 2022 to 2023; however, he remained a fantasy CB1 as a boundary corner despite a 24-percent reduction in fantasy points per game.

Sneed’s frequent proximity to the line of scrimmage in press affords him more tackle opportunities in run defense. His 30 tackles in run defense (per Pro Football Focus) ranked among the top ten NFL cornerbacks in 2023. Overall, however, he collected 30 fewer combined tackles in 2023 than in 2022.

Sneed might reprise his role as a fantasy CB1, but he will be over-drafted like all recognizable names at the position this summer.

Safety Amani Hooker entered fantasy gamers’ radars last year with 85 combined tackles, easily a career-high, in 13 games. As a frequent deep split safety in Dennard Wilson’s defense, Hooker can be ignored in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Fantasy Holds

Jeffery Simmons had a down year by his standards in 2023, finishing 19th in fantasy points. He missed time with injury and thus claimed fifth in fantasy points per game. As the fourth defensive tackle by The IDP Show’s average draft position, he offers no discount despite the missed time. The top defensive tackles, however, are undervalued as a group in leagues that require two starters at the position.

Edge rusher Harold Landry III tore an ACL right before the 2022 season began. He started the 2023 season slowly and ultimately played 140 fewer snaps last year than the year before. He nevertheless finished 16th in fantasy scoring at the position. He is a stable value with an ADP of 17th among edge rushers.

Fantasy Values

Arden Key is shaping up to be the bargain among Titans’ pass rushers. His ADP is outside the top 49 edge rushers. He is overlooked in some of this writer’s deeper leagues. Key’s emergence as a quality pass rusher seems to have gone unnoticed. He ranked 13th in pass-rush win rate among edge rushers according to ESPN using NFL NextGen Stats. By another measure, Key ranked second fastest in time to pressure, a key factor in neutralizing the quick passing games discussed by Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar.

Chidobe Awuzie boasts a career rate of tackles per snap of 7.96 percent playing primarily on the boundary. Sneed’s rate was 7.87 percent last year. Awuzie’s 3-year $36 million contract suggests he will play full-time, but he did not last year. If Roger McCreary can earn a starting job on the boundary and move inside in subpackages, he will remain the Tennessee cornerback to roster. Otherwise, Awuzie will be a superior choice to Sneed at cost.

Titans’ linebackers each have LB2 upside that depends on their abilities to earn reps. Kenneth Murray and Jack Gibbens are available at LB4 and LB5 prices respectively according to average draft position data collected by The IDP Show for its draft kit. Both players could play upward of 80 percent of defensive snaps since the team lacks a viable third safety.

Murray will be a boom/bust option in 2024. Titans linebackers coach Frank Bush indicates Murray will see opportunities on the edge. He will suffer tackle inefficiency losing snaps in the middle but could make up the fantasy points with sacks.

If Jack Gibbens can earn the green dot and play full-time, he will have a conventional path to an LB2 finish. The Titans’ frequent MOFO structures will enhance Gibbens’s tackle efficiency, as evidenced by PFF's Jon Macri. Gibbens collected just 12 fewer tackles than Murray despite playing 340 fewer snaps in 2023.

Summer Plans

Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

More by Tripp Brebner III

 

Reading the Defense: Week 18

Tripp Brebner III

Tripp Brebner reviews defensive backs' performance to date for lessons learned.

01/04/25 Read More
 

Reading the Defense: Week 17

Tripp Brebner III

Tripp Brebner reviews defensive linemen's performance to date for lessons learned.

12/27/24 Read More
 

Reading the Defense: Week 16

Tripp Brebner III

Tripp Brebner reviews linebacker performance to date for lessons learned.

12/20/24 Read More
 

Reading the Defense: Week 15

Tripp Brebner III

Our Tripp Brebner considers the future of Dallas IDPs if the Cowboys part ways with defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.

12/13/24 Read More
 

Reading the Defense: Week 14

Tripp Brebner III

Our Tripp Brebner considers the future of Chicago IDPs after head coach Matt Eberflus.

12/06/24 Read More
 

Reading the Defense: Week 13

Tripp Brebner III

Tripp Brebner considers outlooks for New Orleans's IDPs after the Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen.

11/29/24 Read More