Reading the New Defense: Seattle Seahawks

Photo: USA Today Sports

Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last year. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved valuable, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior role that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense to set fantasy expectations for 2024.

RELATED: See Reading the New Dolphins Defense here >>>

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

This article leads the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 offers additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series further assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and each of the two preceding seasons.

#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:

Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%

AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%

Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%

Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024

Macri also reports tackle rates per snap for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they align in “the box” – where linebackers typically line up.

#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:

BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ?‍??
SLOT: 9.6% ?

-- Average: 9.1% --

DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, and Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and resembles Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling. Matty F. Brown and Cody Alexander discuss Macdonald's defense, how first-time defensive coordinator fits, and what the defense might look like in 2024 on Alexander's podcast.

Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories, including DVOA. Notably, the strength of Baltimore’s defensive personnel was up the middle: safeties, linebackers, and tackle Justin Madubuike, a revelation of 2023. Macdonald fielded street free agents on the edges and a motley crew of cornerbacks once do-it-all veteran Marlon Humphrey was lost to injury.

In contrast, Fangio had big-name edge rushers and cornerbacks. His unit’s middling performance and his bristly personality earned him a pink slip. Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024.

Aden Durde serves as Seattle’s defensive coordinator this season. Mike Macdonald plans to call the plays.

Erecting Defensive Fronts

With Madubuike’s emergence, Baltimore and Miami each had a premier interior disruptor. NFL defenses are increasingly prioritizing interior pressure to interfere with short quarterback drops and timing-based passing games. Independent Seahawks analyst Matty Brown explains Macdonald’s fronts and touches on how Seattle personnel fit.

Seahawks Defensive Tackles

The Seahawks' offseason investments illustrate the importance of interior pressure to Macdonald. They re-signed Leonard Williams, for whom they traded in mid-2023, to a huge contract and made Byron Murphy II their first pick of the 2024 draft. These two will team with Jarran Reed to apply interior pressure. Williams brings versatility to split wide, making him the best bet to lead the platoon in snaps and fantasy points.

Seattle brought in journeyman Johnathan Hankins to rotate with Cameron Young at nose tackle. Neither are fantasy assets.

Leonard Williams with a couple of nice snaps against the run pic.twitter.com/MXEZBIujRg

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 8, 2023