Reading the New Defense: Miami Dolphins

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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.

RELATED: See Reading the New Seahawks Defense here >>>

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

This is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series further assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.

#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:

Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%

AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%

Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%

Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024

Macri also reports tackle rates per snap for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they align in “the box” – where linebackers typically line up.

#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:

BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ?‍??
SLOT: 9.6% ?

-- Average: 9.1% --

DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.

Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him. Anthony Weaver, the Ravens' defensive line coach under Macdonald, will succeed Fangio in Miami.

Erecting Defensive Fronts

Anthony Weaver has just one year of experience coordinating a defense - the 2020 Houston Texans. He has spent the balance of his coaching career guiding defensive lines, starting under Rex Ryan in 2012. His superiors, including head coach Romeo Crenel in Houston, implemented defenses with sophisticated fronts involving 3-4 and 4-3 looks.

His 2020 defense leaned on MOFC (middle-of-the-field closed) coverages, as did most defensive coordinators of the prior decade. NFL offensive coordinators began solving Cover-3 with its single high safeties, so the Texans of four years ago struggled. 

While basic media coverage of NFL defenses focuses on the number of high safeties (1 – MOFC or 2 – MOFO), coaches wrestle with whether to penetrate and disrupt or hold the line of scrimmage. One coach will choose to defend the run on the way to the quarterback (e.g., Dan Quinn), while another will build a wall (e.g., Dean Pees).

Anthony Weaver will err to the side of getting upfield. The 2024 Dolphins will take their lumps in the run game.