Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
RELATED: See Reading the New Seahawks Defense here >>>
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
This is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series further assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports tackle rates per snap for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they align in “the box” – where linebackers typically line up.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him. Anthony Weaver, the Ravens' defensive line coach under Macdonald, will succeed Fangio in Miami.
Erecting Defensive Fronts
Anthony Weaver has just one year of experience coordinating a defense - the 2020 Houston Texans. He has spent the balance of his coaching career guiding defensive lines, starting under Rex Ryan in 2012. His superiors, including head coach Romeo Crenel in Houston, implemented defenses with sophisticated fronts involving 3-4 and 4-3 looks.
His 2020 defense leaned on MOFC (middle-of-the-field closed) coverages, as did most defensive coordinators of the prior decade. NFL offensive coordinators began solving Cover-3 with its single high safeties, so the Texans of four years ago struggled.
While basic media coverage of NFL defenses focuses on the number of high safeties (1 – MOFC or 2 – MOFO), coaches wrestle with whether to penetrate and disrupt or hold the line of scrimmage. One coach will choose to defend the run on the way to the quarterback (e.g., Dan Quinn), while another will build a wall (e.g., Dean Pees).
Anthony Weaver will err to the side of getting upfield. The 2024 Dolphins will take their lumps in the run game.
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Dolphins Defensive Tackles
Zach Sieler has been an above-average interior defender since he arrived in Miami in 2019. The Ravens waived their 2018 seventh-round pick, hoping no one would notice his descension to their practice squad. Fantasy gamers don’t know him well because he was tagged as a DE for years across most platforms. Sieler broke out with 10.0 quarterback sacks last year in a fearsome four-man front that included Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips, and Bradley Chubb.
If Sieler is to sustain his success, he must do so as Weaver’s featured interior disruptor. Wilkins departed Miami in free agency. Phillips and Chubb could miss most of the year recovering from serious injuries.
With Christian Wilkins departure, the spotlight immediately goes to Zach Sieler, who No Swim Zone believes is the key to the Defensive Lines success
— No Swim Zone (@noswimzone) June 6, 2024
We’ve been raving all offseason about the addition of Anthony Weaver, and this week we’re focusing on the defensive line..
We… pic.twitter.com/DqBs0E4dlD
Dolphins Edge Rushers
The Dolphins boasted one of the best sets of bookends in the NFL in 2023. Bradley Chubb ranked among league leaders in pass-rush win rate before he tore an ACL late in the season. Third-year edge Jaelan Phillips was breaking out when he tore an Achilles. If they can return to form in 2024, their contributions will be bonuses.
Former Bronco and Buccaneer Shaquil Barrett will open the season as one starter at edge. The nine-year veteran has 59.0 sacks to his credit. Of those, 45.0 came during his emergence as a premier pass-rusher in Tampa Bay. He remains an effective player at age 31. The Buccaneers moved on due to cap constraints and the emergence of young players on rookie deals.
Rookie Chop Robinson looks likely to be pressed into service opposite Barrett. The 23rd overall pick of the 2024 draft has high upside, but Weaver will be bracing himself for mistakes from a raw player.
Shaq Barrett still has a lot to offer the Miami Dolphins. Can absolutely be productive for this defense, especially in an edge rotation later on in the season. High effort dude.
— George Forder (@GeorgeForder3) March 12, 2024
Anytime you have pass rush wins against Laremy Tunsil, you're doing something right. #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/7Y2aNK3AyR
Building Out Coverages
The Ravens frequently played zone defense in middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) structure in 2023. Baltimore had one of the league’s best centerfielders in Baltimore last year – safety Marcus Williams; nevertheless, the Ravens were among league leaders in two-high-safety structures, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Miami also has a talented centerfielder in Jevon Holland. Like Mike Macdonald, Vic Fangio liberally used MOFO structures. That tendency is likely to continue in Miami. The Dolphins will execute MOFO and MOFC structures at similar rates, unlike Weaver’s 2020 Texans, who relied overwhelmingly on MOFC structures.
Dolphins Cornerbacks
The 2023 Dolphins spent surprisingly little time in press-man coverage with Xavien Howard at cornerback. They have since replaced him with Kendall Fuller, whose strength is zone coverage. Fuller joins a cornerback group with Jalen Ramsey, Kader Kohou, and Nik Needham, all of whom have the flexibility to play in the slot.
Dolphins Safeties
Jevon Holland emerged as a defensive weapon before Vic Fangio. Brian Flores and Josh Boyer coordinated very aggressive defenses that would blitz from anywhere. Weaver was an enthusiastic blitzer in his one season as a coordinator.
While Anthony Weaver was coaching the Ravens’ defensive line, his coordinator Mike Macdonald was deploying safety Kyle Hamilton in an overhang role in subpackages. Hamilton would attack the line of scrimmage and contribute to simulated pressures.
Hamilton has three inches and ten pounds on Holland. The Dolphin won’t dominate overhang snaps like Hamilton does; however, thirty-something veterans Jordan Poyer and Marcus Maye free him up to move around the defense to create match-up problems for opposing offenses.
.@MiamiDolphins all world FA; Jevon Holland looked like the right fielder in a “T-Ball Game”. He finally found a little action just to get a grass stain on the uni. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/CSwWK8lIqC
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) October 9, 2023
Dolphins Linebackers
As Jon Macri reports in the embedded tweet above, linebackers profit as tacklers in zone defenses in MOFO structures. Weaver’s scheme is expected to align with this league-wide trend, which should position his linebackers for fantasy utility in 2024.
The Dolphins signed former Seattle first-round pick Jordyn Brooks to a three-year $26.25 million contract to man the middle of their defense. The 240-pound thumper has cleared 160 tackles twice in his four-year career. If the defensive tackles can keep him clean, he’ll push that total in 2024. Unfortunately, it’s a big “if” given the Dolphins’ lack of investment in their interior defensive line behind Sieler.
Another unrestricted free agent, Anthony Walker Jr., will compete with holdover David Long Jr for reps alongside Brooks. Walker’s one-year $4.25 million contract aligns with his track record as a reliable two-down linebacker.
Long, signed last year to a more lucrative deal, opened the 2023 season with a role limited to base defense. Edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel had surprisingly beaten him out for the nickel linebacker role next to Jerome Baker. Long’s reps increased only after injuries piled up, necessitating Van Ginkel’s move back to the edge.
?DOLPHINS BREAKDOWN?
— Tyler DeSena (@DeSenaSports) May 17, 2024
New LB Jordyn Brooks brings a level of instinctiveness, mobility, and pass coverage prowess to Miami's Mike Backer role that they haven't seen in quite some time.
I broke down two plays from one of his best games to show just how instinctive he is: pic.twitter.com/x4cN8fXBGs
2024 Dolphins Outlook
Jalen Ramsey headlines a long list of Dolphins bound to disappoint fantasy gamers. Ramsey manned the boundary last year, rendering him invisible as a fantasy cornerback. With no certainty for a high-volume slot role, he should not be trusted to regain the fantasy CB1 status he enjoyed as a Ram. His current average draft position of 15th among cornerbacks is errantly based on name value. (The IDP Show is collecting ADP data via dozens of best-ball drafts.)
Jordan Poyer was once a perennial SAF1, perennially undervalued. In 2024, he’ll sit back in shells just as he did in Buffalo for the past two seasons.
The Dolphins’ latest wagers on linebackers are the cues fantasy gamers should take to follow suit. Anthony Walker Jr. fits as an end-of-roster addition for depth at linebacker. Long can be ignored outside the deepest of leagues.
In recent years, several players like Cam Akers have defied the odds to return to play well ahead of typical recovery periods. Others, like Brandon Graham, have bounced back remarkably effectively. Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb might return gradually like Rashan Gary, struggle to return to form like Harold Landry III or suffer setbacks like David Ojabo. Drafting one as an ER3 and rostering him all season will be an exercise in frustration.
Newly signed Shaquil Barrett, meanwhile, is a forgotten man in early fantasy drafts. Even if one or both incumbent starters return, Barrett will be an important piece of the rotation. He could continue to lead the position group in snaps as an incumbent regains form and benefit from reduced attention from opposing protections.
Zach Sieler’s ADP of 10th among interior defensive linemen is a reasonable bet in hopes of reprised production. The supply of reliable interior defenders dries up quickly in leagues requiring two starters.
26-year-old Jordyn Brooks was pushing the very top of dynasty linebacker rankings before tearing an ACL near the end of the 2022 season. He returned for a productive 2023 despite reverting to second fiddle alongside Bobby Wagner. He’s back in command of a defense for 2024, and at his current ADP of 21st among linebackers, he is being drafted at his floor.
Jevon Holland is an interesting value pick at a position where drafters should always pursue value. Holland could rebound as a SAF2, how he finished in 2022.
Happy 24th birthday to one of the best safeties in the entire National Football League Jevon Holland?? pic.twitter.com/fYNn0CJVOR
— King of Phinland?? (@KingOfPhinland) March 3, 2024
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
