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Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
Atl | Chi | Dal | GB | Jac | LAC | Mia | NYG | Phi | Sea | Ten | Was
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023, which propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri)
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Subsequent editions covered the Dolphins and Titans.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.
? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024
The Chargers hired Jesse Minter to coordinate their defense. Minter arrives in Los Angeles with new head coach Jim Harbaugh. For the past two seasons, Minter was Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator at the University of Michigan. From 2017 to 2020, Minter was a defensive assistant working with Baltimore position coach Mike Macdonald. Minter then succeeded Macdonald at Michigan in 2022.
Erecting Defensive Fronts
While basic media coverage of NFL defenses focuses on the number of high safeties, coaches wrestle with whether to penetrate and disrupt or hold the line of scrimmage. One coach will choose to defend the run on the way to the quarterback (e.g., Jim Schwartz), while another will build a wall (e.g., Dean Pees).
Chargers Defensive Tackles
Jesse Minter’s defensive front will rely more heavily on over fronts than Macdonald’s. In subpackages, Minter’s two defensive tackles will seek to occupy the three interior linemen, which should enable the edge rushers to get upfield in one-on-one match-ups versus the offensive tackles. Independent analyst Cody Alexander discusses on the franchise's Guilty as Charged podcast.
The Chargers’ personnel along their defensive front fit Minter’s needs. The tackles don’t have long track records of accomplishment and won’t be asked to do more than hold their own. The team’s investments at the position this offseason include $2.25 million for one year of Poona Ford and a fourth-round pick in Justin Eboigbe. They’ll join holdovers Morgan Fox and Otito Ogbonnia in rotation.
Chargers Edge Rushers
Los Angeles’s defense boasts one of the best sets of bookends in the league. Public perception of the duo is tainted by Khalil Mack’s age and Joey Bosa’s injury history. Mack enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2023. He set a new career high in quarterback sacks with 17.0, thanks in part to Las Vegas’s Aidan O’Connell, who fell to Mack six times in his first career start.
When on the field, Bosa is comfortably and consistently among the top 20 pass rushers in the NFL. He has played over 800 snaps in three different years, entering his age-29 season.
If either starter misses time, the first man off the bench looks ready to take his place. Rising sophomore Tuli Tuipulotu should afford Minter opportunities to deploy NASCAR fronts with Bosa inside in clear passing situations.
Tuli Tuipulotu is officially credited with 9 pressures, 3 sacks, and 3 run stops against the Vikings. He leads all rookie EDGE rushers in pressures, sacks, and run stops through three weeks. He is third in PRP among all NFL starters.
— Tyler Schoon (@tylerjschoon) September 25, 2023
DROTY frontrunner. Will the snaps continue? pic.twitter.com/B0eTXBiqbK
Building Out Coverages
Jesse Minter worked under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale while a defensive assistant in Baltimore. Mike Macdonald left Baltimore for Michigan for one year and then replaced Martindale. Macdonald’s defense diverges from Martindale’s in that it relies on MOFO (middle-of-the-field-open) coverages in balance with MOFC (middle-of-the-field closed) coverages. This balance yielded some of the highest utilization of two high safeties in coverage in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Minter was somewhat more likely to rely on a single high safety (MOFC) in coverage at Michigan. Macdonald also blitzed much less frequently than Martindale, a little below the league-average rate. Minter will likely utilize blitzing at rates between Macdonald and the aggressive Martindale.
Chargers Cornerbacks
Former Titan Kristian Fulton represents the Chargers’ biggest investment in its secondary this offseason. He was a four-year starter in Tennessee but benched at one point in 2023 due in part to lack of physicality. His arrival alongside incumbent starter Asante Samuel Jr. suggests the Chargers will rely infrequently on press-man coverage. Edge rushers will be asked to generate pressure and force quick throws. The cornerbacks must come up and make tackles.
Chargers Safeties
Jesse Minter might need to temper his urge to blitz unless his mid-career cornerbacks can elevate their performances at age 25 in a new system. On those occasions he does blitz, he can bring one of the league’s best pass-rushing safeties.
Three-time All-Pro Derwin James Jr. somehow seemed muted in former head coach Brandon Staley’s defense. Staley tried deploying James in an overhang position more frequently toward the end of 2023 to make more big plays.
Slot defenders at Michigan have been more of the cover corner variety partly because Minter’s defense plays more one-high coverages than Mike Macdonald’s. At Baltimore, Macdonald had Kyle Hamilton at safety, the one player in the league most similar to Derwin James. Minter will almost certainly borrow pages from the Ravens’ playbook to utilize James similarly.
The Chargers have three very good starters on defense. With a supporting cast of eight marginal to adequate starters, Minter will put James, Mack, and Bosa in positions to make plays.
DERWIN JAMES ??
— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2023
pic.twitter.com/bHiOlUuwzM
Chargers Linebackers
The question marks that began at defensive tackle continue into the linebacking corps. The team will likely start players on reserve money at each level of the defense. The cap-constrained Chargers signed a player they once drafted, Denzel Perryman, to a one-year $2.3 million contract.
The nine-year pro has collected a remarkable 662 tackles in 4,192 career defensive snaps, a tackle rate of 15.8%. Perryman has played 70 percent or more of the defensive snaps of games in which he suited up in each of the past three seasons. He’s likely to play at a similar rate in 2024 for the Chargers.
The Chargers have used third-round picks on linebackers in each of the past two drafts. Daiyan Henley couldn’t get on the field for the previous regime. Junior Colson captained Jesse Minter’s defense in Ann Arbor last year. Each has worn the green dot in OTAs. Based on their college records, Colson could play on early downs and give way to Henley as a dime linebacker.
2024 Chargers Outlook
Fantasy Fades
Early fantasy drafters broadly expect Junior Colson to play at or near full-time in his rookie season based on his track record with Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. Colson’s average draft position is 37th, according to data collected by The IDP Show for its draft kit. The upside is there, but the optimism overlooks the likelihood that Colson would have been drafted earlier had NFL coaches thought he was ready to play full-time and command a defense as a rookie.
Los Angeles safety Alohi Gilman was an early-season waiver wire target in 2023. He was piling up tackles at the back end of a struggling defense and finished 27th at the position by Footballguys scoring. His path to fantasy relevance is well-established fool’s gold for drafters the subsequent season (e.g., Jalen Pitre 2022-2023, Xavier Woods 2021-2022).
Fantasy Holds
Fantasy gamers know who makes plays in Los Angeles. They’re drafting Derwin James and Khalil Mack as top options at their respective positions. Joey Bosa’s injury history suppresses his ADP, but he still comes off the board as a low-end DE2.
Tuli Tuipulotu’s fantasy value hinges on the veterans’ availability. Gamers selecting him around his ADP of 38 among edge rushers recognize the upside.
Fantasy Values
Those dialed in saw the precipice of Denzel Perryman’s breakout on the eve of the 2021 season. Perryman earned a role in base and nickel personnel for Patrick Graham’s defense in Las Vegas during preseason action. He impressively maintained his high level of tackle efficiency per snap en route to 154 combined tackles in 15 games. His total ranked sixth in the league.
Perryman has played 100 percent of his unit’s snaps only three times in 111 career games (post-season included). He has nevertheless been a useful piece of medium-sized fantasy rosters for three years when healthy.
He’s nearly free in early free in early-summer fantasy drafts and has demonstrated LB1 upside if he can secure a role playing the same 83 percent of defensive snaps he enjoyed in 2021.
Mental processing elevating raw speed into play speed = Denzel Perryman. #Chargers @D_Perryman52 pic.twitter.com/tHwUhbVN36
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) January 5, 2016
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
