Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
Atl | Chi | Dal | GB | Jac | LAC | Mia | NYG | Phi | Sea | Ten | Was
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers' line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago's zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators' past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL's most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus's Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers' tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami's defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks' new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald's defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio's. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic's Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald's strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald's guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald's success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia's defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.
? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024
The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.
Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023
Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.
Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW
Macdonald's scheme varies from Fangio's in that the new Seahawks head coach uses more press-man coverage. The next Philadelphia defensive coordinator has preferred off-man coverage.
As an NFL defensive mind, incoming Jaguars coordinator Ryan Nielsen is on trend. Like Macdonald in Baltimore, Ryan Nielsen made regular use of two-high-safety coverage shells and press-man coverage in Atlanta. Nielsen used over fronts on early downs and under fronts to promote interior disruption in clear passing situations.
In just one year in Atlanta, Neilsen improved the defense from 27th in yards allowed to 11th and doubled its number of quarterback sacks. His Falcons eclipsed 40 sacks for the first time since 2004.
In 2022, Macdonald took over a unit that finished 25th in yards allowed and elevated it to third. The 2022 Baltimore pass rush scored 13 more sacks – 48 total – than the 2021 version. Perhaps both Macdonald and Nielsen can run an effective NFL defense. The former earned renown while the latter lost his job in regime change.
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Erecting Defensive Fronts
The similarities between Jacksonville's Ryan Nielsen and Seattle's Mike Macdonald belie the fact that Nielsen's defense is thought of as a 4-3 defense while Macdonald's is built on 3-4 architecture.
Jaguars Edge Defenders
A notable difference between the two men's fronts is the use of the strong-side defensive end – the “big end” in 4-3 parlance. Macdonald sparingly deploys a strong-side defensive end to stand up offensive linemen. Brent Urban played 280 snaps – 24 percent of the Baltimore defense's total in 2023 – evenly distributed between the edge and the B gap (between the guard and the tackle).
Ryan Nielsen deployed 37-year-old Calais Campbell at big end for 712 snaps (63%). His back-up, rookie Zach Harrison played 342 snaps (32%). Both players aligned predominantly on the edge, occasionally sliding in to play over the tackle or in the B gap.
The first-overall pick of the 2022 NFL draft, 23-year-old Travon Walker fits Nielsen's big-end role well. Walker is nearly identical to Zach Harrison in size. His premium athleticism will empower Nielsen to move him around the line to penetrate from the interior and stand up tackles as necessary to support multiple fronts.
Joshua Hines-Allen returns to Jacksonville on a 5-year $150 million deal to bookend the defense opposite Walker. He'll play a familiar wide alignment. Given the questionable depth behind Walker and Allen, the starting duo should again surpass 800 snaps a piece with good health.
Travon Walker was on an absolute tear to close out the 2023 season. In the final 8 games, Walker totaled 6.5 sacks and 30 pressures.
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) May 17, 2024
It’s a BIG Year 3 coming up for No.44 pic.twitter.com/IcOvNrfWFn
Jaguars Defensive Tackles
The most distinctive difference between Mike Macdonald's 3-4 defense and Nielsen's is Macdonald's deployment of a two-gapping nose tackle lined up over the center in base formations. Nielsen prefers to deploy two versatile defensive tackles who can hold the line of scrimmage or penetrate.
Nielsen was fortunate that the 49ers cut Arik Armstead for salary cap reasons. The Jaguars will pay him the same money he was due in San Francisco in 2024.
Armstead fits as the primary B-gap tackle alongside DaVon Hamilton, the A-gap tackle. Hamilton signed a 3-year $34 million extension ahead of the 2023 season. A back injury hampered Hamilton throughout the season. He and Jacksonville hope for a return to form in 2024.
The return of Davon Hamilton is nearly upon us!
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) June 18, 2024
pic.twitter.com/tD0QddFpPe
Building Out Coverages
Jaguars Cornerbacks
According to Sports Info Solutions, no one ran more man coverage than Ryan Nielsen's Falcons in 2023. One report indicated CB1 A.J. Terrell was in man coverage 70 percent of the time.
Terrell was a first-round draft pick because he excelled in this playing style at Clemson. Jacksonville's Tyson Campbell will try to fill this role for Ryan Nielsen, but his experience is predominantly in zone coverage.
The Jaguars signed Ronald Darby away from Baltimore to start opposite Campbell. While Darby has had success in his career in press-man coverage, he's a ten-year journeyman who's struggled to hold a full-time role.
The Jaguars did not retain their 2023 slot corner Tre Herndon. They used a third-round pick in this year's draft on Jarrian Jones, who appears to fit the role.
The Jaguars' weakness at the cornerback commission makes it unlikely that Nielsen's defense again leads the league in man coverage use. Nielsen has nevertheless insisted that his defense will be aggressive and attacking, suggesting that he's also extremely unlikely to adopt his predecessor's approach. Only two teams played more zone coverage than the Jaguars last year – the Colts and Seahawks.
In 2022, the #Jaguars Tyson Campbell finished as @PFF’s 7th highest-graded CB in the #NFL, collecting 9 PBUs, 3 INTs and allowed a completion rate of just 58.5%.
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) March 26, 2024
Expect a return to form for No.32 in 2024.
pic.twitter.com/Ai3kumoHnX
Jaguars Safeties
The Jaguars cut incumbent starting strong safety Rayshawn Jenkins and replaced him with an unrestricted free agent signing. Darnell Savage arrives in Jacksonville on a 3-year $21.75 million contract. While Jenkins alternated between high and low safety duties, Savage offers the versatility and coverage ability to man the slot in nickel subpackages.
Fourth-year man Andre Cisco has good range and adds value as a single-high safety as well as a split safety in two-high structures. Sophomore Antonio Johnson is the third safety and fits as the first option in the box rotating through with Savage and Cisco.
Andre Cisco doing Andre Cisco things pic.twitter.com/6kIWMRq79V
— Mike McAllister (@McAllisterMike1) January 7, 2024
Jaguars Linebackers
Foyesade Oluokun has been the top overall fantasy defender for three years running and has made more tackles than any other NFL player. He will play alongside the team's 2022 first-round pick Devin Lloyd.
Nielsen's linebackers in Atlanta and New Orleans have performed notably disparate duty sets. One linebacker is more likely to drop back or carry tight ends down the field while the other comes forward and takes responsibility for the running back. Pete Werner in 2022 and Nate Landman in 2023 each recorded much higher tackle efficiencies than their running mates, Demario Davis and Kaden Elliss. Werner and Landman each came off the field in dime packages while Davis and Elliss wore the green dot.
Oluokun should continue to wear the dot in Jacksonville while Lloyd occupies the downhill but part-time role. Lloyd was noted to be a good pass-rusher coming into the NFL, which can often be a backhanded compliment to an off-ball linebacker. Lloyd improved significantly from Year 1 to Year 2 and is a highly competent run defender; however, he has room to grow in coverage.
Foley's first step taking out the RG, Devin Lloyd slipping past the center to aid in the tackle, right side of the DL not allowing any movement, Jenkins aiding on the tackle. Phenomenal team defense vs the run pic.twitter.com/EWVEOGt8P6
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) October 31, 2023
2024 Jaguars Outlook
Fantasy Fades
As PFF's Jon Macri notes in the tweet above, zone defense fuels linebacker tackle efficiency. The Jaguars will likely shift from one end of the spectrum to the other in zone coverage utilization. Foyesade Oluokun's 2023 tackle total of 173 is unattainable in 2024.
Ryan Nielsen brought Kaden Elliss with him from New Orleans to Atlanta in 2023. Elliss wore the green dot, played 1,082 snaps (28 fewer than Oluokun), and collected 122 combined tackles. Nate Landman made just 12 fewer tackles in 808 snaps.
Nielsen served the Saints' defense as co-coordinator in 2022. That year, LB1 Demario Davis collected 109 tackles in 1,132 snaps. Pete Werner efficiently compiled 80 combined tackles in 597 snaps in an injury-shortened 2022.
Devin Lloyd collected 127 tackles in 15 games last season. Early drafters expect him to resume a full-time role in 2024 and build on those numbers. He'll need all 17 games to eclipse the 966 snaps he played last season. He's more likely a weekly boom/bust LB3 based on opponent run-game strength than an LB2 based on data collected by The IDP Show for its draft kit for average draft position.
Fantasy Holds
Edge rusher Joshua Hines-Allen firmly established himself as a fantasy ED1 in 2023. He'll be compensated accordingly in 2024. He and Travon Walker should play high volumes to support tackle production that supports big-play spikes.
Walker might need the volume and increased tackle efficiency that his new edge-setting big-end role supports. Two dozen players scored double-digit sack totals in 2023. Pro Football Focus graded Walker's pass rush the lowest of the 24. Walker is just 23 and has room to improve. Like Lloyd, Walker is a fringe second option at his position by ADP. He's a safer selection in tackle-heavy leagues; however, Nielsen's track record in developing defensive ends could propel Walker to another level.
Jaguars defensive tackles are fantasy watch-list candidates with Arik Armstead leading the group.
Fantasy Values
Tyson Campbell has broken up 30 passes in 43 career games. He should be able to build on that efficiency in Ryan Nielsen's aggressive defense. He's a good end-of-draft target for those wisely waiting to populate their fantasy rosters' cornerback slots.
Darnell Savage appears on some depth charts as a cornerback. If he gains that designation in fantasy leagues, he's a candidate to lead the position in fantasy points. Even as a safety, he's a screaming value at the amazing price of free. He's the 88th safety and 165th defensive back off of IDP Show best-ball draft boards to date.
Under Nielsen in Atlanta, Jessie Bates III posted one of the five best seasons in the past five years by a fantasy safety. Savage is not the talent that Bates is, but Nielsen participated in Savage's recruitment for the Jaguars' defensive backfield via unrestricted free agency. Savage demonstrates that there's simply no reason to spend early fantasy draft picks on defensive backs.
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Avid readers can find last year's analysis of then-Atlanta defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen here.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
