Reading the New Defense: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has a new defense for 2024. Our Tripp Brebner looks at the new IDP opportunities in Mike Zimmer's scheme.

Tripp Brebner III's Reading the New Defense: Dallas Cowboys Tripp Brebner III Published 08/29/2024

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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers' line-ups throughout 2023.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago's zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators' past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL's most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus's Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers' tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.

Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami's defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks' new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald's defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio's. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic's Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald's strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.

Under Macdonald's guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald's success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.

Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia's defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.

The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.

Like Dan Quinn (covered earlier this summer), new Cowboys coordinator Mike Zimmer is among the leading defensive minds of the previous decade whose scheme atrophied. The 68-year-old led top-ten units from 2011 to 2013 in Cincinnati and from 2016 to 2018 in Minnesota. Then the bottom fell out.

Mike Zimmer's defense is not radically different from Fangio's or Macdonald's. Zimmer rushes his inside linebackers. His nose tackle clogs the middle. He mixes in MOFO looks. His cornerbacks press.

The notable difference – and failure in 2020 and 2021 – is that he rarely disguises his intentions. This further played out in relatively static personnel groupings with less frequent substitution.

 

The Cowboys hired Mike Zimmer to replace Dan Quinn, who's now the head coach of the hated Commanders. Preliminary (read: preseason) indications are alarming. Zimmer's Cowboys are disguising coverages less often than any NFL team. Quinn's Commanders are comfortably in the middle of the pack.

Zimmer's Cowboys haven't simulated a single blitz either. (In a “sim,” the defense rushes a linebacker or defensive back while dropping a pass rusher into coverage.) They're stunting at a league-average rate after making hay for the past three years with stunts. Mike Macdonald's Seahawks, meanwhile, are working on their stunts in August to manufacture pressure.

Preseason play has resembled the action depicted above in that Zimmer is flooding the line of scrimmage. Dan Quinn did the same before he lost his job in Atlanta in 2019. In the Cowboys' final preseason game, the Chargers gashed them for long touchdowns, during which the defense showed and played single-high-safety coverage.

Cowboys fans are praying that Zimmer is simply holding back his cards. But how can he when he hasn't coordinated a defense for the past two seasons?

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Erecting Defensive Fronts

Zimmer explained that most of his past experiences involved assuming a weak unit that needed improvement. In a spring interview, Zimmer offered that the Cowboys' defense didn't require an overhaul. Instead, he noted minor tweaks and adjustments in technique.

Dan Quinn's biggest internal struggle was balancing deployment of stout versus lithe defensive tackles. Stout tackles like Johnathan Hankins helped stop the run but sacrificed stunt opportunities to manufacture interior pressure.

Cowboys Defensive Tackles

Dallas drafted raw, uber-athletic nose tackle Mazi Smith with the 30th pick of the 2023 NFL draft and then asked him to slim down. He personified Dan Quinn's struggle, and his rookie season was itself a struggle for Smith.

Mike Zimmer has Smith gaining weight to play nose tackle in his 4-3 base defense. Zimmer's approach seeks a balance between building a wall and penetrating. Zimmer has tapped his old Vikings nose tackle, 35-year-old Linval Joseph, to back up Smith. If Smith cannot make a big leap in 2024, the Cowboys' run defense is in trouble.

The near-term future is much brighter alongside Smith at the three-technique tackle. Rising fourth-year player Osa Odighizuwa posted one of the highest pass-rush win rates of all NFL defensive tackles in 2023. He's the prototypical one-gapping interior disruptor and the underappreciated second fiddle to All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons.

Cowboys Edge Defenders

As of this writing, rookie Marshawn Kneeland appears to have pushed journeyman Al-Quadin Muhammad off the roster on his way to a starting assignment opposite stalwart veteran DeMarcus Lawrence.

 

Micah Parsons appears on projected depth charts as the starter opposite Lawrence; however, the Cowboys had success in 2023, reducing Lawrence down to the interior in obvious passing situations. Parsons bookended a line opposite Dorance Armstrong or Dante Fowler Jr, both of whom left Dallas with Dan Quinn. The All-Pro, who hasn't played in the preseason, might fit best in Mike Zimmer's defense as the strongside linebacker, allowing Dallas to show 50-fronts. The five-man line common to penny personnel or bear fronts could aid the Cowboys' run defense and blitz variants.

Zimmer deployed Anthony Barr as a strongside linebacker on the edge with the Vikings. While Barr played off the ball in subpackages, Parsons will typically play defensive end. Zimmer has intimated, however, that Parsons will see more time off the ball than he did in 2023 to create more confusion for protections.

Building Out Coverages

No NFL defense disguised coverages less often than Zimmer's Cowboys in August 2024. That will change or the Dallas's defense will backslide as quickly as Minnesota's three years ago.

Cowboys Cornerbacks

Dan Quinn became oddly shy about pressing as the 2023 season wore on. Mike Zimmer was expected to change that; however, foot surgery has DaRon Bland on injured/reserve to open the season. Fifth-round pick Caelen Carson looks like the opening-day starter opposite Trevon Diggs. Zimmer will likely lean on quarters coverages from a MOFO structure in September to better support the rookie.

Jourdan Lewis returns as the slot corner. The Cowboys might again push for the league lead in dime personnel deployment.

Cowboys Safeties

Dan Quinn vigorously rotated safeties throughout his three years. None played full-time in 2023. Reports indicate that free safety Malik Hooker is the only one with a safe, certain role going into 2024. Incumbent starting strong safety Donovan Wilson may be a liability in coverage that Zimmer can't abide. Markquese Bell, who looks set to absorb departed Jayrone Kearse's snaps, will have a significant role.

Zimmer is expected to show more MOFO structures and utilize incrementally more zone coverages than Dan Quinn. The player that holds up as a split safety in pass defense will outsnap others almost regardless of what they accomplish near the line of scrimmage.

Cowboys Linebackers

Mike Zimmer brought Eric Kendricks, another of his former Minnesota defenders with him to Dallas. Familiar with the system, Kendricks will relay plays from his middle linebacker position.

Damone Clark and DeMarvion Overshown will flank Kendricks in 4-3 sets. With Micah Parsons and Markquese Bell creeping into the second level, neither young linebacker will play near full-time.

2024 Cowboys Outlook

Fantasy Fades

According to data collected by The IDP Show for dozens of best-ball leagues, fantasy gamers are drafting DaRon Bland as their CB1. Unfortunately, he's out for the first month of the season. He should only be drafted in the last round of leagues in which he can be stashed on IR.

Fantasy Holds

Micah Parsons is among the top three IDPs in fantasy football and has more room for variance than T.J. Watt or Maxx Crosby, the players ahead of him. Mike Zimmer could choose to play him more and increase his potential for tackles from an off-ball alignment.

Parsons also has downside if Zimmer's defense resembles a relic of the previous decade like it did in Preseason Week 3. Parsons ranked fifth in the NFL in tackles for loss but forced just two turnovers, thus hurting his 2023 standing in Footballguys scoring, which doesn't recognize TFLs.

Fantasy gamers can't forget the big numbers that Trevon Diggs put up three years ago. He missed most of 2023 with injury, yet still has an ADP that makes him a fantasy CB2. It's hard to ignore his ball skills after the obvious targets are off the fantasy draft board.

Fantasy Values

With Bland out, Caelen Carson ranks among the top considerations for cornerback streamers. He's an obvious candidate for Footballguy John Norton's “rookie corner rule.”

In fantasy player pools littered with interchangeable split safeties, gamers should target two types of safety. High-level players afforded opportunities to play outside of structure are typically well-known and drafted early.

Donovan Wilson fits the second type: a safety with a chance at an optimal role. Malik Hooker will usually play deep in MOFC structures, while Wilson plays low. Wilson has proven his worth as a pass rusher and tackler in Dan Quinn's defense. The impediment to his fantasy relevance is volume. At an ADP of 46 among safeties, the risk for Wilson is easily affordable.

Eric Kendricks finished 20th, 26th, and 9th in Zimmer's last three seasons in Minnesota. Kendricks's ADP of 33rd among fantasy linebackers accounts for his age (33). Kendricks finished at 23 on the Footballguys leaderboard for linebackers last year despite not playing full-time for the Chargers. Zimmer will play enough zone to feed Kendricks and make him a viable LB2 for 2024.

Fantasy gamers are too quick to assume a safety with huge tackle numbers like Camryn Bynum is making plays all over the field. Likewise, gamers fail to look under the hood of pass-rushing statistics that don't generate fantasy points. Bynum tackled receivers he allowed to catch the football at a league-leading rate. Osa Odighizuwa was beating pass protectors as effectively as DeForest Buckner in 2023; however, he couldn't collect a sack after Week 2. His 2024 ADP of 37th among defensive tackles reveals a lack of awareness among drafters. Odighizuwa has as much talent as any player drafted outside the top 15 at the position.

As of this writing – one day after cutdown day, Marshawn Kneeland is just one of four defensive ends on the Cowboys' roster, including Micah Parsons. Dallas was widely expected to include a pedestrian veteran in its rotation, but Kneeland appears to have convinced Mike Zimmer that's not necessary. 32-year-old DeMarcus Lawrence hasn't played 700 snaps since 2018. Special teamer Chauncey Golston, the defensive line's swing tackle, has played 960 snaps total in three seasons. Kneeland could occupy a high-volume role alongside two of the league's most effective pass rushers. His ADP of 133 among edge rushers is comically low and a screaming value. Kneeland fits rosters as an ED5 with unknown, high-variance upside.

Summer Plans

Reading the New Defense dropped each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Past editions can be found by searching for this author. Thanks go to readers for their interest this preseason.

During the season, Reading the Defense will appear at Footballguys.com each Friday. The column will explore trends and patterns in defensive schemes and player deployment that lead to fantasy value.

Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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