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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023, which propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

2024 is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus’s Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.

#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:

Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%

AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%

Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%

Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024

Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.

#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:

BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ?‍??
SLOT: 9.6% ?

-- Average: 9.1% --

DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.

Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.

Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him.

? Drew Rosenhaus, who represents multiple Miami Dolphins players, on Vic Fangio: “There were quite a few players that didn’t necessarily get along with Fangio. It wasn’t a great relationship with many of the players.” (@TheMozKnowz) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cFIiVNgX7j

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 24, 2024

The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.

Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.

Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.

Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023

Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus is one of several NFL defensive minds who coached conservative 4-3 base defenses that relied on Cover-3 in the previous decade. Like Robert Saleh, Eberflus evolved his defense to include more two-high-safety coverages to survive.

Chicago hired former Buffalo defensive line coach Eric Washington to coordinate Eberflus’s defense in 2024. Washington coordinated the Panthers’ defense in 2018 and 2019. Like his role in Chicago, Washington implemented Ron Rivera’s scheme in Carolina.

2019 was the year of Rivera’s short-lived 3-4 defense experiment. Carolina drafted Brian Burns in the first round to succeed the retiring Julius Peppers on the edge. Cam Newton missed most of the season with injuries, and the wheels fell off.

Like several other Carolina players and coaches, Washington moved to Buffalo. He coached a deep rotation of defensive linemen while head coach Sean McDermott, another former Panther, implemented more two-high shells.

Erecting Defensive Fronts

Matt Eberflus will continue to call plays for his defense. Eric Washington’s impact in Chicago will thus be more subtle than those covered in this column to date. Washington could nevertheless impose changes that meaningfully impact player deployment and statistical output.

Bears Edge Defenders

At the 2023 NFL trade deadline, the Bears dealt a future second-round draft pick to the Commanders for defensive end Montez Sweat. The move harkened back to Chicago’s acquisition of Chase Claypool.

Chicago fired defensive coordinator Alan Williams in September 2023. Eberflus took over the defense and uncharacteristically began blitzing to generate pressure. The change had little effect, and the defense continued to struggle.

The introduction of Sweat, a solid run defender and credible pass rusher, paid immediate dividends. The unit was the league’s fifth-best by one metric. Ebeflus was able to take his foot off the gas, blitzing at his normal, low rate during the winter.

The Bears had little choice but to sign Sweat to a huge contract valued at $98 million over four years. Sweat returns to a defensive-end room in 2024 that is light on proven talent. Rookie Austin Booker surprisingly slid into the draft’s fifth round. Preseason action indicates he might slide right into a rotation with incumbent starter and run plugger DeMarcus Walker.

Chicago’s rotation of edge defenders bears watching in 2024. Montez Sweat played 70 percent of Chicago defensive snaps available to him. Before Sweat's arrival, Yannick Ngakoue played more than 80 percent of snaps three times. If Sweat can push 80 percent of snaps for the 2024 season, he has solid DE1 upside.

Eric Washington’s Buffalo lineman played in a rotation that resembled two duos platooning rather than the more common threesome seen elsewhere in the league. Eberflus kept a fourth edge defender involved last year, but the talent gap from Sweat to the rest of the roster is startling. Eberflus and Washington will be tested by the mantra of putting their best 11 on the field.

Bears Defensive Tackles

Like many modern 4-3 defenses, a disruptive interior presence in the ‘B’ gap is key to unlocking a successful pass rush. The Bears will deploy 2023 second-round pick Gervon Dexter at 3-technique. As a Florida Gator, Dexter played the role of building a wall along the defensive line. He profiled as a pocket pusher rather than a penetrator coming out. However, Bears scouts saw potential, and Dexter flashed as a rookie. According to Pro Football Focus, he notably hurried Detroit's Jared Goff four times in two meetings and recorded half a sack.

Zacch Pickens will back up Dexter and nose tackle Andrew Billings. Drafted in 2023’s third round from the University of South Carolina, Pickens is the more prototypical 3-technique defensive tackle and should supplant Billings in obvious passing situations.

Building Out Coverages

Like Robert Saleh, Dan Quinn, and others of his era, Matt Eberflus found his own way to keep his scheme from expiring. Eberflus led the league in Cover-2 in 2023. The ‘2’ in Cover-2 represents the two deep safeties. The balance of coverage defenders play shallower.

Bears Safeties

A younger, healthier Eddie Jackson once flashed as one of the best centerfielders in the NFL. His defensive average depth-of-target in 2023 was the deepest in the league at 19.3 yards from the line of scrimmage. The figure, 1.7 yards deeper than any other player, indicates how often he played high. Jackson was a liability in run defense, while his running mate, Jaquan Brisker, performed better against the run than the pass.

Former All-Pro Kevin Byard III has taken Eddie Jackson’s spots in the line-up and on the roster. A more well-rounded safety than Jackson, Byard is expected to operate interchangeably with Brisker in 2024.

The Bills made a similar change in the relationship between Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde while Washington coached in Buffalo. The interchangeability and increased two-high deployment ended Poyer’s five-year run as a fantasy SAF1.

Jaquan Brisker & Kevin Byard III pic.twitter.com/fvYjr59aZT

— ? ??????? ?? ? (@_MarcusD3_) August 2, 2024

Bears Cornerbacks

Rookie Tyrique Stevenson, yet another Day-2 pick by the Bears in 2023, led the NFL in targets by opposing quarterbacks. A perfect storm of the rookie corner rule emerged. Stevenson played opposite Jaylon Johnson, who played his way to a 4-year $76 million contract in Spring 2024. Stevenson struggled out the gate and was peppered midseason. He stabilized as a starter down the stretch, yet he finished as a fantasy CB1 due to abundant tackle opportunities afforded by catches in front of him.

Slot corner Kyler Gordon collected 61 combined tackles in 13 games. His full-season pace of 80 tackles would have nearly matched Stevenson, but Gordon’s ball skills are inferior. Stevenson broke up 16 passes to Gordon’s 6. Entering his third year in the NFL, Gordon has not demonstrated ball skills in college or pro football.

Bears Linebackers

Chicago made two big free-agent signings at linebacker in the 2023 offseason. Coming off a stellar season in Buffalo, Tremaine Edmunds signed a 4-year $72 million deal. Former undrafted free agent T.J. Edwards received a 3-year $19.5 million deal.

While many fantasy gamers chased the money to make a draft-day decision between Edmunds and Edwards, astute gamers watched to see which would play Eberflus’s WILL role. When Eberflus coordinated the Colts’ defense, he transformed Shaquille Leonard into an All-Pro as a rookie playing weakside inside linebacker (WILL). Leonard led the league in tackles in 2018.

Tremaine Edmunds plays MIKE for the Bears. The premium athlete was expected to perform better in coverage. Edwards, meanwhile, finished as the fantasy LB1, collecting 155 combined tackles. Edmunds made 113 tackles in 15 games, right around his career average in tackles per game.

Edmunds’s defensive average depth-of-target was nearly a full yard deeper than Edwards’s per Pro Football Reference’s Advanced Stats. According to Pro Football Focus, Edmunds’s average depth-of-tackle in run defense was also nearly a full yard deeper than Edwards’s. Edwards, routinely playing closer to the line of scrimmage, gets the first crack at tackle opportunities between the two.

TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds in 2023:
7 Interceptions (#1 by any LB duo)
259 Combined Tackles ??
Edwards is just 27 years old
Edmunds is only 26 years oldpic.twitter.com/KUnWOctMy4

— TJ (@TJNextWave) July 14, 2024

2024 Bears Outlook

Fantasy Fades

Fantasy gamers are drafting Jaquan Brisker fifth among safeties, on average, according to data collected by The IDP Show for dozens of best-ball leagues. Jordan Poyer’s fall below replacement level in 2022 should frighten gamers off of Brisker. The former Bills’ box safety found himself playing interchangeably with Micah Hyde, frequently in two-high shells.

Tyrique Stevenson’s perfect storm has blown over. He’s no longer a rookie. His play improved down the stretch in 2023. One of two things will happen in 2024. Either he will regress and get benched for poor play, or he will dissuade opposing offenses from going after him so aggressively. Fantasy gamers selecting Stevenson as a CB1 fail to consider the sustainability of his opportunities for points.

Kyler Gordon is fine in tackle-heavy scoring formats, but he doesn’t play full-time or get his hands on enough footballs. He has averaged about 7.5 fantasy points per game in each of his two seasons, good for 21st place in 2022 and 36th in 2023. He needn't be prioritized as a CB2 in drafts.

Fantasy Holds

The Bears’ three greatest fantasy commodities are coming off IDP Show draft boards around their 2023 finishes. Edwards as an LB1 and Edmunds as an LB2 make sense, given the tackle-rich environments in the middle of Eric Washington’s defense.

Montez Sweat collected 12.5 sacks in 2023, about half of which came with the Bears, for whom he played nine games. His impact was remarkable - a credit to Sweat after playing in the shadow of higher draft picks along Washington's line for years. He has upside if Chicago relies on him more heavily in 2024.

Fantasy Values

Gervon Dexter is probably a year away, but as the 60th defensive tackle by average draft position, he merits a spot on deeper rosters requiring two starters at the position. A featured interior disruptor in a one-gapping scheme like Chicago’s is worth watching in all leagues.

Every snap #Bears DT Gervon Dexter Sr played in his year 2 preseason debut. pic.twitter.com/4HDYpjMkQA

— ImBearingDown (@ImBearingDown) August 14, 2024

Summer Plans

Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.

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