Reading the New Defense: Atlanta Falcons

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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.

Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.

Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.

Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.

Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.

The Importance of Scheme and Deployment

This is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.

Pro Football Focus’ Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.

#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:

Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%

AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%

Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%

Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024

Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.

#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:

BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ?‍??
SLOT: 9.6% ?

-- Average: 9.1% --

DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri)

June 4, 2024

Changing Schemes

In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.

This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).

Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.

Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.

Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him for his temperament more than his defense's results.

The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.

Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.

Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.

Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023

New Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris and his defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake guided a defensive scheme in Los Angeles similar to those coordinated by Macdonald and Fangio. Lake, an assistant for the Rams in 2023, will coordinate his first NFL defense and call plays. Morris coordinated the Rams' defense for the past three seasons.

Lake ran a three-high defense as the Washington Huskies’ co-defensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and head coach from 2016 to 2021. A three-high defense, also known as a 3-3-3, has yet to translate as a base defense to the NFL.

Raheem Morris has begun his second stint as an NFL head coach. He led the Buccaneers from 2009 to 2011. Since then, he’s coached both offense and defense. He resurfaced as a head coach in 2020 when Dan Quinn was fired. Morris began the season as the Falcons’ defensive coordinator and took the helm as interim head coach midway through the season.  

The defense immediately improved after Quinn. Quinn’s Cover-3 scheme was well-known for flooding the line of scrimmage – one man per gap – to simulate pressure. Offensive lines had figured out how to block his attack. Morris adjusted by keeping players back to focus more on coverage or blitz from depth.

Morris’ brief success with the Falcons’ defense earned him the opportunity to succeed Brandon Staley as the Rams’ defensive coordinator in 2021. Morris again adopted an existing scheme and personnel, made it his own, and enjoyed success.

Morris’ attacking defensive tackles, led by Aaron Donald, played similarly to Grady Jarrett et al in Atlanta. Cover-3 was the prevailing coverage in Los Angeles, just as it had been in Atlanta under Quinn and Morris. Staley’s execution of Cover-3, however, followed a split-safety pre-snap look to disguise which safety would play deep.

Erecting Defensive Fronts

Jimmy Lake is widely expected to implement a defense similar to that run by Raheem Morris. Lake succeeds Ryan Nielsen, whom this column covered when he arrived in Atlanta last year and again last week. Nielsen will coordinate Jacksonville’s defense in 2024.

Popular media headlines exclaim Atlanta’s return to a 3-4 base defense. The alignment is an element of Brandon Staley’s defense that Morris inherited and retained. Morris’ 2020 Falcons and his Rams prioritized interior penetration as Staley had.

The 3-4 defense that Dean Pees implemented for the 2021 and 2022 Falcons focused on “building a wall.” He asked his defensive tackles to occupy blockers and hold the point of attack. Nielsen changed the front to an attacking style. Morris and Lake’s fronts will play more similarly to Nielsen’s than Pees’. This contrast between Pees and Nielsen is more substantive than "3-4 or 4-3."

Falcons Defensive Tackles

Ten-year veteran Grady Jarrett has been comfortable and effective in the attacking fronts of Quinn, Morris, and Nielsen, a style he has played in seven of his nine seasons. David Onyemata, who played for Nielsen in New Orleans as well as Atlanta, joins Jarrett. These two will be tasked with getting to the quarterback.

The team needs role players to fill out the interior defensive line. Eddie Goldman was once a good NFL nose tackle, but he hasn’t played in a regular season game since 2021. Ta'Quon Graham is a younger candidate to man the point of attack. He flashed in his rookie season but has struggled with injuries.

The Falcons used a third-round pick last year on Zach Harrison to play strongside defensive end. He’ll play inside more often in 2024. He is bulking up to play head-up over offensive tackles more often in a 3-4 alignment.

The 2024 Falcons’ selection of Ruke Orhorhoro in the second round demonstrates their prioritization of interior disruptors among their defensive tackles.

Grady Jarrett in Week 3 against elite competition. Self-explanatory. pic.twitter.com/cviWXC8W9C

— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) September 27, 2023

Falcons Edge Defenders

Atlanta used two Day-2 picks to man the edges of their future 3-4 defense in 2022. 240-pound DeAngelo Malone couldn’t get on the field for Ryan Nielsen in 2023. He should rotate in behind his classmate Arnold Ebiketie and Lorenzo Carter. The group will be asked to set the edge less often. Rookie Bralen Trice, whom Jimmy Lake recruited to Seattle, could emerge as the fourth contributor at the position.

The veteran Carter has experience in 3-4 defenses as a Giant. His run defense and coverage ability could propel him to lead the position group in snaps. Alternatively, Malone and Trice might develop quickly in training camp and push Carter, a career disappointment as a pass rusher, off the roster.

Nice 'rip' stunt by the Falcons DE Lorenzo Carter (#0) at the point of attack vs. the Texans.

Sometimes, a nice stunt like this against under Center Wide Zone can get the DE free & directly in front of the RB as he takes the ball. #ArtofX pic.twitter.com/SZZaoN5ODn

— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) March 4, 2024