Links to all of this year's Reading the New Defense Articles
Atl | Chi | Dal | GB | Jac | LAC | Mia | NYG | Phi | Sea | Ten | Was
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted Texan Jalen Pitre as the second defensive back nearly by consensus last summer. Scoring 8 fantasy points per game, a 5.5-PPG drop from 2022, Pitre was a liability in IDP gamers’ line-ups throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, T.J. Edwards proved a value, finishing as an LB1 in the tackle-rich middle of Chicago’s zone coverages. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores plugged Harrison Phillips into the interior defender role in 2023 that propelled Christian Wilkins to 84 combined tackles in 2021.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series offers analysis of new defensive coordinators’ past schemes together with roster changes and player contracts. The goal is to read a new defense and inform fantasy expectations for 2024.
The Importance of Scheme and Deployment
This is the second season of the series. The first Reading the New Defense of 2023 provides additional background on the importance of changing defensive schemes, including the significance of true-position IDP. The series assumes true-position line-ups – two interior defenders, two edge rushers, two off-ball linebackers, two safeties, two cornerbacks, and a flex – mirroring nickel personnel, the NFL’s most common defensive grouping.
Pro Football Focus’ Jon Macri reports data analysis indicating a correlation between linebackers’ tackle rates and zone coverages. Linebackers who made tackles at a high rate per snap played on teams that more frequently played zone in 2023 and in each of the two preceding seasons.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2023:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) May 9, 2024
Cover-2: 16.1%
Cover-6: 15.6%
Cover-3: 14.7%
Cover-4: 14.6%
AVERAGE LB TKL RATE: 13.4%
Cover-1: 10.2%
Cover-0: 9.0%
2-Man: 7.9%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones hurt… https://t.co/8DELTJojhx
Macri also reports rates of tackles per snap by alignment for safeties. Known as the last line of defense, safeties are likelier to make tackles when they line up in “the box,” i.e., alongside a linebacker.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri)
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
Changing Schemes
In Summer 2023, Vic Fangio was the talk of defensive pro football. The long-time coach who began his career with expansion teams of the 1990s returned to the league as Miami’s defensive coordinator. Coaches implementing versions of his scheme proliferated the league.
This summer, the Seattle Seahawks’ new head coach Mike Macdonald has succeeded Fangio as the media-proclaimed defensive genius of the NFL. His former assistants now lead defenses in Baltimore, where Macdonald coordinated for just two years, as well as Miami, Tennessee, and Los Angeles (Chargers).
Macdonald’s defensive system is not unique and bears similarities to Vic Fangio’s. Both use 3-4 bases, 4-man under fronts in nickel subpackages, and frequent pre-snap structures with two high safeties. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen explains that Macdonald’s strongest traits are his teaching methods and play calling.
Under Macdonald’s guidance, Baltimore led the league in several defensive categories including DVOA. The first edition in the second season of the series Reading the New Defense covered reasons for Macdonald’s success and how they might translate to Seattle, where Macdonald will take over as head coach.
Fangio will coordinate Philadelphia’s defense in 2024 after Miami fired him for his temperament more than his defense's results.
The innovation Vic Fangio advanced that Mike Macdonald employs is to build out coverages first and allocate remaining resources to run defense. This results in the “light box” – a total of six players along the defensive line and behind it at linebacker depth. Frequently, then, both safeties align deep, more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage.
Dolphins defense baited the QB run from the Eagles on that last 3rd down.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 23, 2023
Eagles motion to Empty, Dolphins show a Quarters shell. But watch the Dolphins Safeties signaling.
Hurts checks into a direct QB run - which makes sense against a light box. Dolphins instead bring Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/GOdb72V1LW
New Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris and his defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake guided a defensive scheme in Los Angeles similar to those coordinated by Macdonald and Fangio. Lake, an assistant for the Rams in 2023, will coordinate his first NFL defense and call plays. Morris coordinated the Rams' defense for the past three seasons.
Lake ran a three-high defense as the Washington Huskies’ co-defensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and head coach from 2016 to 2021. A three-high defense, also known as a 3-3-3, has yet to translate as a base defense to the NFL.
Raheem Morris has begun his second stint as an NFL head coach. He led the Buccaneers from 2009 to 2011. Since then, he’s coached both offense and defense. He resurfaced as a head coach in 2020 when Dan Quinn was fired. Morris began the season as the Falcons’ defensive coordinator and took the helm as interim head coach midway through the season.
The defense immediately improved after Quinn. Quinn’s Cover-3 scheme was well-known for flooding the line of scrimmage – one man per gap – to simulate pressure. Offensive lines had figured out how to block his attack. Morris adjusted by keeping players back to focus more on coverage or blitz from depth.
Morris’ brief success with the Falcons’ defense earned him the opportunity to succeed Brandon Staley as the Rams’ defensive coordinator in 2021. Morris again adopted an existing scheme and personnel, made it his own, and enjoyed success.
Morris’ attacking defensive tackles, led by Aaron Donald, played similarly to Grady Jarrett et al in Atlanta. Cover-3 was the prevailing coverage in Los Angeles, just as it had been in Atlanta under Quinn and Morris. Staley’s execution of Cover-3, however, followed a split-safety pre-snap look to disguise which safety would play deep.
Erecting Defensive Fronts
Jimmy Lake is widely expected to implement a defense similar to that run by Raheem Morris. Lake succeeds Ryan Nielsen, whom this column covered when he arrived in Atlanta last year and again last week. Nielsen will coordinate Jacksonville’s defense in 2024.
Popular media headlines exclaim Atlanta’s return to a 3-4 base defense. The alignment is an element of Brandon Staley’s defense that Morris inherited and retained. Morris’ 2020 Falcons and his Rams prioritized interior penetration as Staley had.
The 3-4 defense that Dean Pees implemented for the 2021 and 2022 Falcons focused on “building a wall.” He asked his defensive tackles to occupy blockers and hold the point of attack. Nielsen changed the front to an attacking style. Morris and Lake’s fronts will play more similarly to Nielsen’s than Pees’. This contrast between Pees and Nielsen is more substantive than "3-4 or 4-3."
Falcons Defensive Tackles
Ten-year veteran Grady Jarrett has been comfortable and effective in the attacking fronts of Quinn, Morris, and Nielsen, a style he has played in seven of his nine seasons. David Onyemata, who played for Nielsen in New Orleans as well as Atlanta, joins Jarrett. These two will be tasked with getting to the quarterback.
The team needs role players to fill out the interior defensive line. Eddie Goldman was once a good NFL nose tackle, but he hasn’t played in a regular season game since 2021. Ta'Quon Graham is a younger candidate to man the point of attack. He flashed in his rookie season but has struggled with injuries.
The Falcons used a third-round pick last year on Zach Harrison to play strongside defensive end. He’ll play inside more often in 2024. He is bulking up to play head-up over offensive tackles more often in a 3-4 alignment.
The 2024 Falcons’ selection of Ruke Orhorhoro in the second round demonstrates their prioritization of interior disruptors among their defensive tackles.
Grady Jarrett in Week 3 against elite competition. Self-explanatory. pic.twitter.com/cviWXC8W9C
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) September 27, 2023
Falcons Edge Defenders
Atlanta used two Day-2 picks to man the edges of their future 3-4 defense in 2022. 240-pound DeAngelo Malone couldn’t get on the field for Ryan Nielsen in 2023. He should rotate in behind his classmate Arnold Ebiketie and Lorenzo Carter. The group will be asked to set the edge less often. Rookie Bralen Trice, whom Jimmy Lake recruited to Seattle, could emerge as the fourth contributor at the position.
The veteran Carter has experience in 3-4 defenses as a Giant. His run defense and coverage ability could propel him to lead the position group in snaps. Alternatively, Malone and Trice might develop quickly in training camp and push Carter, a career disappointment as a pass rusher, off the roster.
Nice 'rip' stunt by the Falcons DE Lorenzo Carter (#0) at the point of attack vs. the Texans.
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) March 4, 2024
Sometimes, a nice stunt like this against under Center Wide Zone can get the DE free & directly in front of the RB as he takes the ball. #ArtofX pic.twitter.com/SZZaoN5ODn
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for IDP (individual defensive players) leagues. If this league is not a IDP (individual defensive players) league, you can edit your leagues here.
Building Out Coverages
The Rams are perennially among the top practitioners of dime personnel. They seemed at the forefront of a trend when Morris arrived in L.A. in 2021. Since then, up-tempo offenses have made substitution difficult enough that more defensive coordinators settle frequently upon two inside linebackers. Their challenge has been to find two linebackers that can hold up in coverage.
Falcons Linebackers
Morris described his linebacker room as an “awesome problem.” The Falcons return 2023 signal-caller Kaden Elliss, former second-round pick Troy Andersen, and Nate Landman, an undrafted free agent who played serviceably well in place of an injured Andersen for much of 2023.
Ryan Neilsen recruited Elliss to Atlanta. The 29-year-old must now retain command of the defense without his biggest advocate. Early summer indications have him retaining the green dot.
Andersen excelled at four different positions at Montana State and aced athletic testing in the pre-draft process. The Falcons made him the third linebacker drafted overall in 2022, recognizing that a player with just one year in the middle of a defense would need time to develop.
Landman established himself as an NFL-caliber linebacker but a proverbial two-down thumper. Landman has more career snaps under his belt than Andersen, 830 to 620.
Multiple observers believe Andersen must overtake Landman in training camp to earn a large share of defensive snaps for the 2024 Falcons. Some recognize that Andersen’s success is crucial to unlocking the potential of Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake’s defense. Andersen and Elliss are both plus pass rushers who can sharpen the defense’s simulated pressures and zone blitzes. This element was diminished in 2023 when Elliss had to play the primary coverage role behind Landman.
The Falcons’ defense found a lot of success running double mug looks (two linebackers lined up over the center) last season.
— Daniel Flick (@ByDanielFlick) July 24, 2024
I asked Kaden Elliss if he thinks those looks will continue with Jimmy Lake replacing Ryan Nielsen at DC.
An insightful answer from Elliss: pic.twitter.com/K7tSzmWUkn
Falcons Safeties
Landman is only Andersen’s first hurdle to a full-time role in 2024. Andersen must also show enough in coverage to keep a third safety off the field.
DeMarcco Hellams and Richie Grant are competing for reps at strong safety and nickelback. Grant opened last season as the starting strong safety but lost his job to Hellams. Hellams fits well as the strong safety in a traditional Cover-3 defense, and Grant occupied an overhang role in college. Grant’s performance at Central Florida earned him a second-round selection by the Falcons in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Each player must show more as a centerfielder to play full-time in a modern Cover-3. Morris and Lake will seek to use the strong and free safety somewhat interchangeably to disguise not only which player will drop but also to make other coverages more credible threats.
Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot have offered mixed endorsements of Grant as a defender, leaving open the possibility that he plays a minimal role as a third safety rather than eat significantly into Andersen’s workload.
Jessie Bates III returns at free safety. He made 133 combined tackles in 2023 in Ryan Nielsen’s man-heavy scheme and returned one of the five best fantasy seasons by a safety in the past five years.
Bates was one of four Falcons to eclipse 100 tackles last year. Grant, Elliss, and Landman all cleared the benchmark.
The Falcons Safety Jessie Bates III (#3) is fun to watch...
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) October 13, 2023
Here, he is filling his gap & making a play behind the LOS.
Lives in his 6" steps, shoulders square, & strike! #ArtofX pic.twitter.com/M1w2StgszH
Falcons Cornerbacks
Perhaps the biggest story of the 2024 NFL Draft was Atlanta’s selection of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at eighth overall in light of the team’s needs at cornerback and edge defender. While the team’s former Day-2 picks on the roster might yet develop into NFL-caliber defenders, the cornerback room has nothing but question marks behind 2020 first-rounder A.J. Terrell.
As a prospect, Clark Phillips III profiled as an NFL slot defender ahead of his selection by the Falcons in the fourth round of last year’s draft. He lost that job to Dee Alford. In 2024, he appears comfortably ahead of journeyman Mike Hughes to play on the outside. Jimmy Lake will have to deploy Phillips on the field side and roll support to him while relying on Terrell to hold up on the boundary side. If Phillips struggles, Jessie Bates III might be forced to stay within structure more frequently than in 2023.
2024 Falcons Outlook
Fantasy Fades
As PFF’s Jon Macri notes in the tweet above, zone defense fuels linebacker tackle efficiency. The Falcons will likely shift from one end of the spectrum to the other in zone coverage utilization. Zone coverage typically concentrates tackle opportunities in the middle of the field to linebackers. In contrast, man coverage diffuses tackles throughout the defense, enabling units like the 2023 Falcons to boast four players with 100 tackles.
The odds that Jessie Bates III will lead the team in tackles again in 2024 are low and likely dependent on a midseason injury to the opening-day MIKE linebacker. Bates remains deserving of a fantasy gamer’s SAF1 slot, but he will be over-drafted relative to other positions. Bates is in the rare company of free safeties like Antoine Winfield and Minkah Fitzpatrick who are empowered to play out of structure to generate big plays and used strategically to attack the line of scrimmage.
In Raheem Morris’ earlier stint with the Falcons, strong safety Keanu Neal was a plug-and-play SAF1 when healthy. Neal recorded 338 tackles in 49 career starts in Atlanta. Alongside Neal, free safeties would play 85 percent of their snaps deep. In this role in 2020, Ricardo Allen recorded just 25 tackles in 12 games.
Morris now uses his safeties more interchangeably, which more evenly distributes tackle opportunities between the two positions. Frequent zone usage lowers both safeties’ ceilings for tackle collection.
A player in such a scheme without certainty of a full-time role need not be rostered. Fantasy gamers are frivolously drafting Richie Grant for depth.
Falcons safety Richie Grant (27) aligned in the slot to the left vs a TE on 3rd down. He’s in press & gets beat off the line, but hustles after his man & wraps around to punch through the hands/ball to force the fumble. Nice finish to an initial loss
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) June 26, 2024
pic.twitter.com/AYaSSHFILM
Fantasy Holds
Raheem Morris had a good, deep linebacker unit just once in his three years in Los Angeles. In 2022, future Hall-of-Famer Bobby Wagner finished as he always does, an LB1, in his only season as a Ram. He posted 140 combined tackles and 6.0 quarterback sacks.
Wagner’s running mate, Ernest Jones IV, collected 114 tackles without any sacks in just 66 percent of the L.A. defense’s snaps in 2022. By Footballguys scoring, Jones finished the season as the 40th best fantasy linebacker, 29 spots behind Wagner.
Despite playing far fewer snaps, Jones faced 53 targets in coverage versus Wagner’s 48. Dropping into coverage, Jones freed up Wagner to blitz. According to Pro Football Focus, Wagner rushed the passer 113 times in 2022, a career high.
As training camp opens, Andersen is best positioned to claim a role similar to that of Ernest Jones IV in 2022. Early drafters are making him the 34th linebacker off the board, on average, according to data collected by The IDP Show for its draft kit. Andersen’s ADP appropriately accounts for three possibilities for 2024: (1) that he rotates with Nate Landman, (2) that he plays 80 percent of snaps if Lake relies more on nickel subpackages than Morris did in Los Angeles, and (3) that Andersen overtakes Elliss as the team’s LB1.
Fantasy Values
Kaden Elliss is the clearest bet league-wide to emerge as 2024’s T.J. Edwards. Elliss is the 36th linebacker chosen, on average, in The IDP Show’s best-ball drafts used to generate ADP. His upside could include 100 pass-rush opportunities. He has proven himself as a pass rusher from the second level, collecting 11.0 sacks in the past two seasons. In a full-time role in the middle of a zone-heavy defense, he should surpass the 122 tackles he collected in 2023. As the first tweet from Jon Macri suggests, the 2024 Falcons’ scheme should promote better tackle efficiency by linebackers relative to Ryan Nielsen’s 2023 unit.
The risk with Elliss is that he relinquishes the green dot to Andersen during the season. Elliss must play his way onto the 2025 roster with his 2024 performance. Next spring, the front office must decide whether to pay him $6.75 million or cut him with a minimal $1.75 million cap hit, according to Spotrac. Elliss may need an LB1 season to justify the $8.5 million he’d count against Atlanta’s 2025 cap with Andersen and Landman waiting in the wings.
Josey Jewell opened the 2023 season with the green dot in Denver. He got banged up and passed the full-time role to Alex Singleton, who never returned it. Jewell was in the last year of a veteran contract, while Singleton had been more recently extended and, therefore, entrenched in a rebuilding team’s future plans.
such a filthy rep by Kaden Elliss
— DiehardFalcFan (@DiehardFalcFan) December 30, 2023
i’m not sure if he’s triggered by H back or something else, but he recognizes this play immediately
and shows crazy athleticism to slide all the way to backside B gap and make a TFL pic.twitter.com/rTkqpryMR3
According to the IDP Show's ADP data, no Falcons other than Bates, Andersen, and Elliss rank among the top 150 defenders. Both Rams’ starting edge defenders finished as ED2s in 2023 due largely to volume. The lack of quality options at the same position in Atlanta could propel a player like Arnold Ebiketie to a high volume of snaps and a high fantasy finish.
David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett will man the interior of Atlanta’s nickel subpackages in 2024. They are the 39th and 40th defensive tackles off the board, respectively, by ADP. Two Rams finished among the top 15 fantasy defensive tackles in 2023. (Yes, one was named Aaron Donald.) Jarrett has been one of the league’s best interior disruptors since he broke out in Super Bowl LI, but he’s coming off an ACL tear suffered in Week 8 of 2023.
Summer Plans
Reading the New Defense will drop each week throughout the summer with a fresh look at expectations for defenses under the tutelage of a new defensive coordinator. Voracious readers can find last year’s analysis of Atlanta’s defense here.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the app formerly known as Twitter.
