Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
It's Week 16, which means two things. Christmas is right around the corner, and the fantasy football semifinals are here.
Since we all know which is more important (Do kids really need more stuff?) we'll get right to work on putting a bow on Week 16.
Because victory is the bestest present ever.
Chaos at Quarterback
There is quarterback uncertainty galore in the NFL in Week 16—just when fantasy managers can least afford it. Injuries. Benchings. Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Sometimes life is cruel.
Which fantasy starter are you gluing to the bench this week due to the chaos under center? Who are fantasy managers freaking out about more than they should?
Harris: Since you invoked Thompson-Robinson in framing the question, I'll start with Jerry Jeudy. It's been great for the former Bronco with Jameis Winston as his triggerman. Of course, Winston's 12 interceptions were a problem for the Browns. But not for us. The veteran signal-caller completed 61.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,121 yards with 13 touchdowns, and 12 Jeudy was a prime beneficiary. Winston had 40 or more pass attempts in five of his seven starts, with Jeudy drawing 23 percent of the targets. Life was good. Will it be as good with Tompson-Robinson as his triggerman? Evidence suggests not. In four appearances this season, DTR has completed just 44.1 percent of his passes for 100 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Last season, Thompson-Robinson started three games as a rookie, completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 440 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. In three career starts, he's averaged 140 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense just demolished the Titans and got Will Levis benched, and Thompson-Robinson will be working behind an O-line that's allowed 58 sacks this season, tied for most in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock moves back into the starting lineup in New York. He was 42-of-81 for 405 yards and two interceptions in his two previous starts. Any team that's started four quarterbacks on the season has problems at the position. But to whatever degree anybody is freaking out about Malik Nabers, stop! The rookie wideout has earned himself a quarterback-proof card. He currently sits at WR10 on the season, despite missing two games to injury and his team playing musical chairs at quarterback. The key to Nabers' success has been volume. His 32 percent target share leads the NFL, and he has four games with 40 percent. No other wide receiver has done it more than twice. Expect more of the same against the Falcons on Sunday.
Davenport: My answers this week aren't going to be as verbose as the esteemed Mr. Harris—my freelance work at the North Pole has me wiped out.
Fun fact? Elves are not even a little bit jolly. And most carry a knife of some sort.
That I have to start Jeudy in at least one league this week makes me a sad panda—I'm going to be destroyed in the King's Classic playoffs. Again. By the same person. But his fantasy value was all but certainly wrecked by Cleveland's stupidity.
As a result, I'm off all the Cleveland receivers. Jeudy. Cedric Tillman. Tight end David Njoku. Just can't do it. The Browns passing game is all floor now. I know that Thompson-Robinson has targeted Njoku heavily in the past, but he's just a terrible quarterback. Jerome Ford garbage-time dump-offs feel like the most reasonable scenario. Yippee.
It's going to be fascinating to see what the change at quarterback in Atlanta does for the likes of wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Kyle Pitts—both of whom have been on fantasy milk cartons for some time now. Drake London weathered Kirk Cousins, mummification okay, but getting a live arm and functional legs back under center in Atlanta might just raise Mooney and Pitts from the dead.
The Naughty List
While you're navigating minefields, identify two players who will be starters for many teams in Week 16 who shouldn't be and "No"larize them before they steal Christmas.
Harris: Isiah Pacheco is back. Kind of. I mean, he's back on the field and in the lineup. He's getting work. But he's yet to demonstrate his usual dominance at the position, mostly because he continues to share with Kareem Hunt. Last week in Cleveland, the two running backs were near 50-50 in snaps and touches. As a result, his fantasy output has been minimal. Pacheco has scored 19.7 points over the three games since he returned. His 6.6 points per game leave him as RB42 over that span. On Saturday, Pacheco and the Chiefs face a tough Texans defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs since Week 8. I suggest keeping your expectations in check.
Najee Harris was barely involved in Pittsburgh's loss to the Eagles last week. He finished with just six carries for 14 yards as the Steelers found themselves playing from behind. According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, Harris' 14 offensive snaps from this game were a new career-low, while his 32.5 percent snap rate was the second-lowest in his career. This week, Pittsburgh goes up against a Baltimore defense that's given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position since Week 8, and that yields a league-low 3.4 yards per carry to running backs. Of course, that would be an upgrade for Harris, who has averaged 3.2 yards per carry since Week 10.
Davenport: Cue me nodding vigorously about Harris—Jaylen Warren will outpoint him this week, and it might not be all that close.
While we're on the subject of running backs facing stout run defenses, it appears that Ken Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks will be back in Week 16—just in time to face a Minnesota run defense allowing an NFC low 89.1 yards per game on the ground. Add in the fact that Walker's touches could be scaled back this week, and both he and Zach Charbonnet are iffy fantasy plays.
The Vikings are also allowing the most PPR points to wide receivers this year, so it's not hard to gameplan Minnesota—throw the damn ball. It's a different story with the Philadelphia Eagles—Philly ranks seventh against the run, first against the pass and is the only team in the league allowing less than 20 PPR points per game to wide receivers. Terry McLaurin of the Commanders is essentially impossible to sit, but brace thyself—a down week is a real possibility.
What's Under the Tree?
Since we're already diving into bad Christmas metaphors, it's gift-giving time—pick three undervalued players set to put smiles on the faces of fantasy managers in Week 16.
Harris: Not to belabor the point, but I have it on good authority that Thompson-Robinson has not been great. So, with Nick Chubb suffering a season-ending broken foot against the Chiefs, Jerome Ford moving back in as the starting halfback is worth noting. Ford recorded 104 scrimmage yards against the Chiefs, including a 62-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. It marked Ford's first 100-yard game this season and his first since Week 7 of the 2023 season. This week, he should benefit from a very favorable matchup; no team in the league has given up more fantasy points per game to the running back position over the past four weeks than the Bengals. Given the change at quarterback, establishing the run will be a focal point in this one.
We're getting another target of opportunity at running back this week. Saints coach Darren Rizzi told reporters on Thursday that Alvin Kamara, who's dealing with a groin injury, is unlikely to play in Green Bay Monday night. ESPN's Adam Schefter added to that, reporting Kamara's injury is still being evaluated, but it's possibly season-ending, and he has likely played his last down this year. Given all this, I'm ready to fire up any shares of Kendre Miller I have. The Saints offense isn't great, but with Spencer Ratter set to start at quarterback, New Orleans is another team that's likely best served leaning into the run. Remember, Miller scored his first touchdown of the season on a 9-yard run against the Giants two weeks ago. Last week, with Kamara leaving early against the Commanders, Miller averaged more than five yards a carry on nine attempts (46 yards). If you find yourself grasping at straws at the position, Miller merits your attention.
While it's easy to overlook him with the spotlight in Jacksonville rightly focused on rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr., tight end Brenton Strange needs to be on your radar. I say that realizing anybody who's looked at last week's scoring might already know that Strange was TE2 on the week with an impressive 18.3-point outing against the Jets. While his 12 targets last week might be hard to match, Evan Engram's season-ending shoulder injury and a lack of high-end receiving options beyond Thomas give Strange a solid floor. At the very least, he's a viable TE1, especially against a Raiders defense that's given up the most fantasy points to the position since Week 8.
Davenport: Logic. Wisdom. Skill.
Stop showing off, Harris.
For the most part, Caleb Williams has been viewed as something of a disappointment—in no small part because of what the guy drafted just after him has done in Washington. But Williams is far from a bust—he's a young quarterback learning his way. It happens. The last time we saw Williams against Detroit's injury-ravaged defense, though, he threw for three scores and was a top-five fantasy option for the week.
The time thing at the end we won't get into because it makes my head hurt.
There are local market folks for whom the only game available on TV Sunday is the Jaguars at the Raiders, which is just about the saddest thing ever. It appears that Aidan O'Connell will be back under center for the Raiders in that game—that being a good thing is the second-saddest thing ever. But if Raiders receiver Jakobi Meyers can produce with Dismal Ridder, he should do just fine in a primo matchup with the Jags.
The tight end position has been a muddied mess this season, with multiple young players expected to take the "next step" falling well short of expectations. You can count Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys among them. But Ferguson's healthy, Cooper Rush never saw a short pass he didn't like, and the Buccaneers have surrendered the fifth-most PPR points to tight ends in 2024.
Secret Santa
T'was the Friday before Christmas, and at Footballguys.
Readers searched for two Week 16 "sleepers"—Don't be telling no lies.
Harris: How about one per position?
I'll start with Falcons rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. I don't recommend forcing Penix into lineups in 12-team, 1-QB leagues, but he's not far from it. Our initial Footballguys projections for Penix against a Giants defense that's given up the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season -- and that just gave up five touchdown passes to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week -- is QB14.
At running back, San Francisco's Isaac Guerendo is unlikely to play against the Dolphins, so feel free to roll out Patrick Taylor Jr. if needed. Yes, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abanikanda could figure into the mix, but Taylor has been there all season and figures to get the bulk of the workload, and he delivered 25 yards on seven carries with a score in San Francisco's Week 14 win against the Bears.
With George Pickens ruled out again this week, I'll remind you that Calvin Austin III caught all five of his targets in the loss to Philadelphia last week. The Eagles are certainly a tougher matchup for receivers than the Ravens, who have been especially vulnerable to slot receivers.
With so many possibilities at tight end, I'll fall back on an old favorite, Mike Gesicki. I know, he's been more likely to disappoint than excel. Still, he's facing a Cleveland defense that's surrendered touchdowns to opposing tight ends in consecutive games and allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position over the last eight weeks.
Davenport: Every position? Seriously?
FINE! I'll do that too! Although mine will rhyme because I'm throwing up sashes and stuff!
At quarterback go with Russell Wilson of the Steelers, against a Ravens' pass defense that hurts their fans' feelers.
(If you think that was bad, Buckle up.)
Wilson's backfield teammates face a more arduous task. But Jaylen Warren's receiving chops will afford fantasy managers all they could ask.
(It can get worse. It will get worse.)
When facing the Vikings, wideouts tend to go off. And Chicago's Rome Odunze will produce one at which no one can scoff.
(Hang in there. Just one more)
Where tight end fantasy matchups go, the Colts are a good place to start. So I'll pick Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Titans because I don't give a fart.
(And that, folks, is why I'm not a songwriter.)
Plant the Flag
Holidays or not, we are still going to close this column this season with a little exercise called "Plant the Flag."
Or Stocking. Candy Cane. Whatever.
Make a player a (North) polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for playoff matchup-winning numbers.
Harris: Buccaneers rookie wideout Jalen McMillan is rolling. The newcomer has nine catches for 134 yards and three touchdowns on 13 targets since Week 14. As Late-Round Fantasy's Zachariason noted, McMillan has seen his two highest target shares of the season in those games, with 25 and 23 percent. He's scored 21.9 and 18.5 fantasy points in those games. If you're worried about Mike Evans being a limiting factor, don't. Evans has been WR8 over that two-game span, averaging 23.9 points per game. McMillan has been WR11. There's plenty to go around in this Baker Mayfield-powered passing attack, and McMillan is well-positioned to exceed his WR46 spot on the consensus rankings this week.
Davenport: That Deebo Samuel Sr. is ranked WR37 this week tells you every iota of information needed about his turd of a 2024 season (Not bitter at all). But with Isaac Guerendo now in the 49ers injury annex (The main building filled up) and the 49ers in absolute desperation mode, the team needs to get Samuel the ball however they can—backfield, catches, whatever. If there isn't a concerted effort to get Samuel the ball Sunday, we'll know that the Niners think he's cooked, too.
Happy Holidays!
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.
