Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
After nine weeks, the fantasy season is more than halfway over. With just a handful of games left in the regular season, there's that much more pressure with each passing week. To know which under-the-radar players could go off in Week 10. Who could carry managers from the stretch run into the playoffs. And how to deal with the ever-growing number of injured players.
This week's column starts with that last part—and an injury in Big D that could impact any number of players moving forward.
Texas-Sized Trouble
The Dallas Cowboys haven't had the best of seasons—and now quarterback Dak Prescott is out indefinitely. Are any of Jerruh's Guys worth a start if they aren't CeeDee Lamb? Is Lamb a late buy or sell?
Harris: Considering tight end is a barren wasteland with just a few consistent fantasy options, it's not hard to imagine managers seeing Jake Ferguson as a viable option. I would like to remind them that in five starts in 2022, Cooper Rush completed 15 passes to his tight ends. Ferguson, who caught seven of those passes, was one of four players at the position in Dallas that season. Dalton Schultz, Peyton Hendershot, and Sean McKeon were the others. I would recommend tempering expectations, but again, it's tight end. I won't judge if you must roll Ferguson out as your starter.
Beyond that, Lamb is the only other startable commodity here.
He was WR9 over the five games Rush started in 2022, pulling in 31 passes for 380 yards with two touchdowns. He's probably a hold for me if I'm already rostering him. Nobody is going to pay up to land Lamb. If I were confident Prescott would return for my fantasy playoffs, I would consider taking a chance on buying -- at the right price. But it's a gamble, given the current circumstances. Lamb averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game in those five games with Rush. He had a pair of WR8 outings. His other three finishes were WR24, 41, and 30.
Davenport: Not much to argue with about that answer. Lamb would be almost impossible to obtain at a reasonable price, even if Prescott is ruled out for the season tomorrow. He was the first overall pick in some drafts. Managers with that kind of draft capital invested in a player aren't selling for anything less than retail.
Some fantasy managers may look at Rico Dowdle's 107-yard effort a week ago against the Falcons as a beacon of hope. And to be fair, at this point, the Cowboys would be best served to just make Dowdle the guy—Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott are cooked.
But unless Rush gives opposing defenses a reason to fear him, Dowdle and the Cowboys are about to see a lot of eight-man fronts and cheating safeties moving forward. That's not going to make it easy for the NFC's worst run game to maintain momentum. Neither will playing from behind.
Dallas is done. So are all their fantasy options but Lamb.
Second-Half Star at QB
For much of the 2024 fantasy season, the quarterback position has been a lot less predictable than expected, although it appears to be settling in. Assuming it is, which QB in the back half of the top 25 has the best chance of crashing the party ahead of them?
You can have No. 13, too.
Harris: It will be lucky No. 13 for me. Daniel Jones of the New York Giants, come on down. Looking at the weekly finishes this year, Jones has delivered QB1 numbers four times. I should acknowledge the other five games haven't been great. His best finish in those is QB24. But he gets the Panthers this week, and Carolina's defense ranks 27th against the pass with 18 touchdown passes versus just three interceptions. Four quarterbacks posted top 12 weekly finishes against this defense in the past six weeks, including a 29.7-point outing to Bo Nix and 19.5 points for the Commanders' Marcus Mariota, who took over for an injured Jayden Daniels in the first quarter of Week 7.
Davenport: I'm going to go with a player who was considered a potential fantasy star not that long ago in Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers. The first month of the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles wasn't great for Herbert—the Bolts won with the run game and defense, but Herbert's numbers were—let's go with unimpressive.
It has been a different story of late though—Herbert has thrown for over 275 yards in each of the last three games, and over the past month Herbert ranks eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points. The pass-catchers in Los Angeles are better than we gave them credit for, and we know that Herbert can light up the box score.
Season-Savers in the Backfield
You can have one running back outside the top-25 in PPR points at running back in 2024 for the rest of the way. Who's your stretch-run Superman?
That isn't the best phrasing ever.
Harris: I'm going to throw out players like Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor, whose standing is based on injury. That being the case, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is my player of choice. I know last week wasn't great, but we've seen the upside with a pair of 20-plus point outings, and he's clearly relegated Devin Singletary to less-than-change-of-pace status. I think he's a clear fantasy RB2 going forward with the upside he demonstrated with an RB5 finish in Week 6 and an RB6 finish in Week 8. There might be other players with appealing contingent upside, but Tracey doesn't need somebody ahead of him getting hurt. He's already locked into the role.
Davenport: Tracy would have been my choice as well, but if we both talk about him, we become half as helpful and that's twice as stupid.
You can't argue with math.
Didn't really expect to be saying this in Week 10, but Kareem Hunt of the Kansas City Chiefs has become a solid weekly starter for fantasy managers. Since Isiah Pacheco went down, Hunt has scored double-digit PPR points in every game he has played. His 16.7 PPR points per game is 11th among running backs.
Is Hunt an elite talent? Nope. Not anymore. He's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. But in four straight games, Hunt has eclipsed 20 carries and found the end zone. That kind of consistency is more than appealing.
It's delightful.
Week 10 Wide Receiver Stars
It's been the wide receivers, even more so than the running backs, who have seemingly been bitten by the injury duck (The AFLAC one—it's a protection racket).
With so many holes in so many lineups this week, what under-the-radar play could make a big fantasy dent in Week 10?
Harris: This week, I will dip back into the pool of previously productive players with fantastic opportunity. 49ers wideout Jauan Jennings is slated to return to action after missing the last two weeks with a hip injury. This would be the same Jennings who took advantage of Deebo Samuel Sr.'s absence in Week 3 to finish as fantasy's WR1 with 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams. While Samuel is expected to be on the field for this one, Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season. I'm not expecting Jennings to have another performance like Week 3, but going up against a Buccaneers pass defense has been one of the most generous in the league. Jennings seems like a reasonable play.
Davenport: So, there's a theme this week—Harris stealing my guys. Great minds think alike I suppose.
I'll go with a wideout from whom more was expected this season in Minnesota's Jordan Addison. After over 900 receiving yards and 10 scores as a rookie, Addison hasn't been able to duplicate last year's success—just 19 catches for 273 yards and two scores for the season.
Addison's numbers last week were hardly jaw-dropping, but he found the end zone and received his second-most targets of the season (although totally not because he may have groused publicly about his targets). This week, the Vikings draw a bad Jacksonville secondary that ranks inside the top five in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. Addison's biggest game of the year comes in Week 10—Book it.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called "Plant the Flag."
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top-25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: It's fortuitous to find T.J. Hockenson ranked as TE16 this week. Hockenson, who tore his ACL last December (but didn't have it repaired until the end of January this year), returned to action against the Colts last week. It was a great matchup, but the veteran only played 45 percent of the snaps in his first game back. So, his three-catch, 27-yard outing is understandable. But I expect more this week.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hockenson only had a 63 percent route participation rate. As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted, Hockenson was typically well above the 80 percent mark last. Assuming he gets closer to the norm this week, he'll benefit from another great matchup against a Jacksonville defense that's top five in yards and touchdowns allowed to tight ends since Week 5. Better still, they've given up 16.8, 17.2, and 24 fantasy points to an opposing tight end in three of the last four weeks.
Davenport: I'm going to with a wide receiver who plays for Hockenson's old team—Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions.
The Lions are an absolute buzzsaw offensively right now. Jared Goff is playing like an MVP. He has completed 30 pass attempts in a row to wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown—a stat that is mind-blowing.
But there haven't been a lot of quick-strike scores recently. The Lions are scoring on long drives. Grinding teams down. Death by a thousand cuts. When that keeps happening, opponents have no choice but to cheat closer to the line scrimmage. That makes them more susceptible to the deep shot.
Williams gets one Sunday night in Houston. We'll be relatively conservative and say 70 yards.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.