Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have well over 40 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
Each week during the 2024 season, Harris and Davenport are going to come together here at Footballguys to discuss some of that week's most polarizing fantasy options.
Week 8 was a microcosm of the 2024 season as a whole—with all 32 teams in action, the NFL (and fantasy football) was off the chain. A huge upset in Cleveland, a message sent by the NFC's best team and a finish in the nation's capital that had to be seen to be believed—all of which sent shockwaves across the fantasy landscape.
We'll start this week's column with that wacky finish in Washington—and what it means for a young quarterback rapidly becoming a star.
All Hail, King Jayden
The Jayden Daniels Hail Mary will be replayed on television 11 million times in the last week of December alone, but at this point, there's no denying that the rookie has wildly exceeded expectations in every way imaginable.
How soon is too soon to anoint Daniels the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy football?
HARRIS: I keep thinking of my approach to the position this summer. If I missed out on Anthony Richardson in Rounds 5 or 6 of drafts, Daniels was next on my list. I thought all the things I expected from Richardson were possible for Daniels, except he was available Rounds 9 or 10.
But if I was somewhat concerned about the 6-4, 245-pound Richardson's ability to handle the inevitable battering that comes with his style of play, they were even more significant for Daniels, who, at 6-4 and 210 pounds, doesn't back off contact. Given the price, that concern might have been the only thing keeping me from investing exclusively in the rookie.
We all knew -- or should have known -- Daniels had far more to hang his hat on than Richardson. Daniels threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions at LSU in his 2023 Heisman Trophy-winning season. He also rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs. While the rushing ability set was appealing, Daniels was far more advanced as a passer than Richardson. In retrospect, I can acknowledge that was an understatement.
But the idea that either of them could push for QB1 overall status was part of their appeal during draft season. For Daniels, it still is.
That said, as long as Lamar Jackson is playing at MVP levels, and Josh Allen is still capable of superhuman performances any given Sunday, they'll be obstacles in Daniels' pursuit of that coveted QB1 spot. Not insurmountable. But definitely obstacles.
DAVENPORT: I wish I had invested more heavily in Daniels, although the fact I was able to get him at 1.05 in a superflex dynasty still blows my mind. I went from rebuild to contender in one pick. Completely changed the trajectory of that franchise.
Of course, the same can be said about Daniels and the Commanders. Last week's miracle win over the Bears was Daniels in a nutshell. His athleticism. His accuracy. His blossoming bromance with wide receiver Terry McLaurin. His toughness. And his ability to win.
Right now, Daniels is about 40 fantasy points off Jackson's pace among quarterbacks. He's also trailing Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because nothing makes sense anymore. I'm with Harris that it isn't going to be easy to out-Lamar Lamar. But there's a legitimate chance that a rookie will finish 2024 as the fantasy runner-up under center. And that's something that doesn't happen all that often.
No comment on Richardson—at least not while Harris is still working the stages.
Running Back Chatter
We live in a world where Najee Harris and a fifth-round rookie are two of fantasy's hottest running backs, so it might be the Apocalypse. Or Friday.
Use your polarizing powers and point out a running back set to exceed expectations—and one who needs to ride the pine.
HINT: It can't be Harris.
Harris Chase Brown of the Bengals sits at RB21 in the Footballguys Week 9 Rankings. He's hit double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games and has touchdown upside. This week, he faces a Raiders run defense that's allowed at least 13.3 fantasy points to every lead back they've faced this season. And if you're not sure Brown is the lead back, his 70.6 percent running back rush share in Week 8 was the second-highest of his season. He gets an excellent opportunity to exceed expectations.
Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns is gaining ground. In the Week 8 win over the Ravens, he ran the ball 16 times for 52 yards while serving as the Browns' clear lead running back. It was an increase from his 11-carry, 22-yard (granted, with a TD) debut in Week 7. Chubb will continue to gain momentum down the stretch, especially if Jameis Winston and the passing attack can continue to perform well enough to keep opposing defenses honest. But this isn't the week to raise expectations. The Chargers are No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. According to CBSSports.com, they've allowed two touchdowns to running backs all season and none since Week 4. You might not want to bench him, but Chubb will have to battle to meet our RB23 projection.
Davenport: In terms of both fantasy points for the season and his spot in the FBG Rankings this week, Brian Robinson Jr. of the Washington Commanders is viewed as a lower-end fantasy RB2 in Week 9. But Robinson has at least 12 touches in four of the past five games. He's found the end zone five times in seven contests. And he's facing a porous Giants run defense that has allowed over 140 yards a game on the ground this season. Robinson smashes as the Commanders roll this week.
Josh Jacobs of the Green Bay Packers was back at practice Thursday—there was little chance he was going to miss a battle for first place in the division against the Lions. Quarterback Jordan Love's status isn't as certain—and a run-heavy gameplan against Detroit's fifth-ranked run defense won't be an easy climb. Even if Love does play, the Lions have surrendered the fewest PPR points per game in the NFC to running backs. Most managers have little choice but to start Jacobs. But I don't "love" (See what I did there?) his chances of a good game in Week 9.
Surprising Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position hasn't been as stable as many expected in 2024, because understatements.
There will be a lot of wideouts in starting lineups in Week 9 who weren't drafted by their own mothers. Which one do you have the most (or least) confidence in?
HARRIS: I've gained confidence in Cleveland's Cedric Tillman. After turning a then-career-high 12 targets against the Bengals in Week 7 into 18.1 fantasy points while playing with three different quarterbacks, Tillman continued to excel against an admittedly generous Ravens pass defense. He pulled in seven passes for 99 yards with a pair of touchdowns with Jameis Winston as his triggerman. He finished as WR3 with 28.9 fantasy points. He heads into Sunday's game against the Chargers with 15 catches for 180 yards with the two touchdowns on 21 targets over the past two games. If nothing else, I'm confident in the role, and the matchup against Los Angeles isn't so daunting that it gives me pause.
Davenport: Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts is a fantasy pogo-stick. You get big weeks. You get vanishing acts. And to some extent, that boom/bust nature isn't going away just because Anthony Richardson got the hook in Indianapolis.
But we know a couple of things about Joe Flacco. The first is that for all his flaws, Flacco is an exponentially better passer than Richardson, who just isn't ready to be an NFL quarterback. The second is that Flacco is not even a little averse to chucking it deep. In fact, he rather seems to enjoy it.
No team in the NFL has surrendered more PPR points per game to wide receivers this year than the Minnesota Vikings. Pierce gets behind a leaky secondary for a long score in an upset that hands the Vikings their third straight defeat.
Tight End Celebration
After seven weeks of utter fantasy brutality at tight end, the position celebrated National Tight Ends Day by going completely ballistic—led by Cade Otton's 29 PPR points and change.
Which tight end not named Travis Kelce or George Kittle do you most trust to build off their gonzo stat line?
Harris: First, I trust nobody. Well. I trust Brock Bowers, but that seems like low-hanging fruit. Instead, I'll reach a bit and roll out Detroit's Sam LaPorta, who celebrated the holiday with a rare finish inside the top 10 at the position on the steam of a six-catch, 48-yard, one-TD outing on six targets against the Titans. His 16.8 fantasy points were a season-high.
With Jamison Williams set to miss the second game of a two-week suspension, LaPorta's in a great spot to build on a solid outing. In the past four weeks, four tight ends have scored in double digits -- two of them last week, when Jacksonville's Evan Engram (13.6) and Brenton Strange (10.9) combined for well over 20 points. LaPorta averaged better than 13 points per game against the Packers last season. I'm rooting for more of the same on Sunday.
Davenport: Not that long ago, it looked like it was curtains for Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens. Maybe it was age. Or the emergence of Isaiah Likely. But whatever the reason, Andrews spent September on a fantasy football milk carton.
Over the past few games, however, it has been a much different story—four touchdowns in the past three games and a TE3 ranking over that span. The yardage and target numbers aren't what they were in his heyday, and that could mean more variance from week to week. But when the Ravens are getting into the red zone, Jackson is looking for his old buddy.
Plant the Flag
We're going to close every edition of this column this season with a little exercise called "Plant the Flag."
Make a player a polarizing one—by selecting a guy outside the top 15 quarterbacks and tight ends or outside the top 25 running backs or wide receivers per the Footballguys Rankings who will blow up for week-winning numbers.
Harris: This one seems easy. I'll go with Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey, who sits at WR26 on this week's rankings. As I mentioned in this week's Fantasy Notebook, the Chargers traded up in the second round of the 2024 draft for performances like the one McConkey had last Sunday against the Saints. He set career-high marks in receptions (six), yards (111), and touchdowns (two). He became the first Chargers rookie receiver with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in a game since 2013, when Keenan Allen scored three. McConkey, who head coach John Harbaugh compared to former Panthers and Ravens great Steve Smith Jr., is projected to hit 13 points this week. Meanwhile, the Browns have allowed an opposing receiver to hit 13 points in every game but one.
Davenport: I already mentioned Brian Robinson Jr. of the Commanders, who would technically qualify here. With that in mind, I'll go a different direction—quarterback.
We already saw what Matthew Stafford of the Rams can accomplish when he has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the field. He threw more touchdown passes last week against the Vikings than in every other game so far this season. The Seahawks aren't as bad against the pass as the Vikings, but given how Seattle looked against the Buffalo Bills in Week 8 they aren't markedly better, either.
Stafford has another big game in a Rams win, plunging the NFC West deeper into chaos.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. Follow Bob on X at @footballdiehard.
Gary Davenport is a two-time FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPSharks.
